美联储议息会议笔记：缩表刹车，铁头鸽派（2024年5月）

摘要

• 本次会议，美联储保持利率水平不变。

• 会议声明中直言通胀下降的过程“缺乏进展”（a lack of further progress）。

• 联储将于今年6月起对缩表减速（QT Taper），美债的削减上限从600亿/月降至250亿/月，MBS的削减规模不变。QT Taper的规模处于一些投行预测区间的中位，未超预期。

• 在联储议息会议前公布的财政部TBAC会议材料亦未超出市场预期。

• 鲍威尔依然在发布会上试图保持“风险平衡”（亦即稳健中性）的姿态，以试图避免排除降息的可能。

• 鲍威尔提出“三条路”，其中两条路指向降息，虽然目前的那条路走向的是不降息，但不能排除降息的可能性。

• 由于发布会的问题指向范围过于狭窄，鲍叔一度无语。整体观感上，鲍威尔保持了今年3月会议上的宽松bias，感觉他就想一直鸽派熬到通胀真的下来为止，不成功便成仁。

• 市场对鲍威尔的鸽派姿态非常买账，美债收益率跌，美股凌厉上涨。
  

声明原文（粗体为关键变化）

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months,there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.

最近的指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩张。就业增长依然强劲，失业率保持低位。通货膨胀在过去一年中有所缓解，但仍处于高位。近几个月来，在实现委员会2%的通胀目标方面缺乏进一步进展。

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

委员会力求在长时期内实现充分就业和2%的通胀目标。委员会判断，在过去一年中，实现就业目标和通胀目标的风险已趋于更好的平衡。经济前景不明朗，委员会仍高度关注通胀风险。

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

为支持其目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5.25%-5.5%的区间不变。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行任何调整时，委员会将仔细评估收到的数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平衡。委员会预计，在对通胀率持续向2%迈进有更强的信心之前，不宜降息。此外，委员会将继续减持国债、机构债务和机构抵押贷款支持证券。从6月份开始，委员会将把美国国债的每月赎回上限从600亿美元降至250亿美元，从而减缓其证券持有量的下降速度。委员会将把机构债务和机构抵押贷款支持证券的每月赎回上限维持在350亿美元，并将把超过这一上限的任何本金支付再投资于国债。委员会坚定地致力于将通胀率恢复到2%的目标。

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将继续监测所收到的信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险，委员会将准备酌情调整货币政策的立场。委员会的评估将考虑广泛的信息，包括对劳动力市场状况、通胀压力和通胀预期以及金融和国际发展的解读。

发布会细节

开场点评经济数据

Although gdp growth moderated from three point four percent in the fourth quarter of last year to one point six percent in the first quarter, private domestic final purchases which excludes inventory investment, government spending, and net exports.

虽然GDP增速不尽如人意，但可以体现潜在需求的剔除库存投资、政府支出和净出口的国内私人最终购买依然强劲增长3.1%。

回答加息可能性的表述

I think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I would say it's unlikely.

我认为下一次利率政策行动是加息的可能性不大。我认为不太可能。

回答降息问题以及3月时的easing bias

And the balance of risks, as always. We think that policy is well positioned to address different paths that the economy might take.

And we've said that we don't think it would be appropriate to dial back our restrictive policy stance. Until we've gained greater confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably to 2%.

If we had a path where inflation proves more persistent than expected. And where the labor market remains strong. But inflation is moving sideways. And we're not gaining greater confidence. That would be a case in which it could be appropriate to hold off on rate cuts.

I think there are other paths that the economy could take.Which would cause us to want to consider rate cuts. Two of those paths would be that we do gain greater confidence, as we said. If inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%. Another path could be an unexpected weakening in the labor market, for example.

Those are paths in which you could see us cutting rates.

联储目前在风险平衡的姿态下需要考虑三条路：

第一条路：通胀持续高于政策目标，就业热、经济不着陆，那就无法获得“Greater Confidence”，即不降息。

但如果走出另外两条道路，即就业市场走弱或通胀进展令人满意，那就都可以降息。

鲍威尔的态度就是不能排除降息的可能性。但此后又表态对今年降息没太大信心……

回答有关滞胀的问题

So I don't really understand where that's coming from.

我不懂，现在的数据哪里和滞胀沾边了？

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