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股东会前巴菲特受访全集:伯克希尔处于“换挡”期

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美东时间4月30日,雅虎财经继续更新雅虎财经总编辑安迪·塞尔沃(Andy Serwer)于3月10日专访巴菲特的视频内容。《红周刊》进行了文字整理,期待能帮助到读者朋友。

内容摘要:

富国银行正经历很多企业都会经历的过程,作为企业负责人发现错误要及时、高效的解决。

超低利率甚至负利率不会让我感到害怕,但会让我感到困惑。

未来伯克希尔会有几十亿或者难以准确计数的资金将用于投资疫苗或者教育行业。

找到一个合适的CEO并为其可能发生的事情做好准备是董事会的最终责任。

每天做能让自己开心的事情能够对“健康长寿”起到很大作用。

不会投资特斯拉,让电动车替代燃油车可能会阻碍经济发展。

蒂姆·库克非常耐心地花了几个小时,试图把我(使用手机的水平)提升到两岁孩童的平均水平,但我没能成功。

FAANG公司,除了Netflix需要资金其他都不需要大量资本投入,我不认为它们股价出现了明显的泡沫。

以下为此次专访实录及中文编译:

ANDY SERWER:Hello, everyone. I'm Andy Serwer. Welcome to “Influencers”and welcome to our very special guest, Warren Buffett, Chairman andCEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Warren, nice to see you.

安迪·塞尔沃:大家好, 我是安迪·塞尔沃。欢迎来到《领袖》,欢迎我们的特邀嘉宾,伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。沃伦,很高兴见到你。

WARREN BUFFETT:Good to see you.

沃伦·巴菲特:很高兴见到你。

3月份以来的美股暴跌

没有2008年或1987年那么糟糕

ANDY SERWER:So it's March 10, and it's the day after the stockmarket crash. The Dow was down over 2000 points. Oil cratered to $30 a barrelor so. The 10-year bond went to below 0.5%. What the heck is going on, WarrenBuffett?

安迪·塞尔沃:今天是3月10日,股市崩盘的第二天,道琼斯指数下跌超过2000点,油价跌至每桶30美元左右,10年期国债跌至0.5%以下,到底发生了什么,沃伦·巴菲特?

WARREN BUFFETT: I told you many years ago, if you stickaround long enough, you'll see everything in markets. And it may have taken meto 89 years of age to throw this one into the experience. But markets, if youhave to be open second by second, they react to news in a big time way. It'snot like the market for real estate or farms or things of that sort.

沃伦·巴菲特:很多年前我就告诉过你,如果你在市场上呆的时间足够长,您什么事情都会遇到。但如今这个场面也是我活了89岁第一次遇到。但市场就是如此,新闻每时每刻都在影响着股价,而且市场对新闻的反应很大。我的意思是,它不像房地产或农场之类的市场。

ANDY SERWER: Does this remind you of any other time?

安迪·塞尔沃:这次暴跌有没有让您想起以往哪些经历?

WARREN BUFFETT:Well, I've certainly been a fair number of timeswhen panic has reigned in Wall Street. And October 19, 1987 and the periodaround it,there was panic at the close of business on Monday, October 19, mostof the specialist firms, which were important in those days on the New YorkStock Exchange, were broke. And the next morning, there was a check to theclearinghouse in Chicago that didn't get there.

沃伦·巴菲特:我在华尔街确实经历过很多次这种类似的情形。1987年10月19日“黑色星期一”,出现了恐慌,大多数当时在纽约证券交易所很重要的专业公司都破产了。第二天早上,给到芝加哥清算所的支票都没有完成。

And sometime late in the morning,a decision, I think made thedecision, we're going to stay open. But it was really close. That was, and, ofcourse, the financial panic. There were, you had 35 million people on September1 that weren't worried at all about their money market accounts. On September15 or 16, they were all.

在早上晚些时候,(交易所做了)一个决定:我们将继续开市。但它真的很接近金融恐慌。另外还有(一次),有3500万人在9月1日还根本不担心他们的货币市场账户,到了9月15日-16日,(账户资金)全部消失了。

疫情不会阻止美国或世界的进步

ANDY SERWER: How concerned are you about the coronavirus situation,Warren?

安迪·塞尔沃:沃伦,你是否会担心新冠肺炎病毒?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you've got to defer to the doctors onthat. But you get an all these figures about flu regularly kills 20 times asmany people in this country as, or 40 times maybe as much as we've seen in theway of deaths, even more than that. But it is a pandemic. It is really spread.So we've got something that we don't know how long it will be with us. We don'tknow how severe it'll be. But there will be uncertainty about that for aconsiderable period of time. There has to be.

沃伦·巴菲特:这方面必须听医生的意见。我们从以往数据中可以看到,流感病毒导致的死亡率是国家正常死亡率的20倍甚至40倍,甚至更多。但这是一种流行病,它符合我们对流行病的定义。但现在没有人知道它将持续多久,或者蔓延扩散的规模有多大。但在相当长的一段时间内,这方面仍将存在不确定性。

ANDY SERWER: What precautions are you taking personally?Have you changed any of your habits?

安迪·塞尔沃:您个人采取了什么预防措施了吗?或者为此改变了自己的哪些习惯?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I'm drinking a little more Coca-Colaactually. Seems to have warded off everything else in life.I'm 89. I just hadtwo different doctors tell me how I'm in much better shape than I was a fewyears ago. I'm not sure what I'm doing to get better. But by accident, I had anannual heart check where I wear something around my waist for a couple days.The guy said it's never been better. So I really, I'm the probabilities guy inmy nature. So I, there's going to be to 2.8 million deaths this year. At age89, I'm a little more likely than I was in that group.

沃伦·巴菲特:实际上,我(只是)多喝了一点可口可乐。这似乎可以避免生活中的一切问题。我已经89岁了,我只是需要不同的医生告诉我,我现在的身体状况好多了。我不确定如何来让身体更健康,但出乎意料的是,我在每年的心脏检查中,那段时间我需要把一些仪器在我的腰上挂几天。体检数据显示,我的身体从来没有这么好过。我是天生的概率论者。今年将有280万人死亡。在89岁的时候,我比以前更有可能(属于这类人)了。

But 2.8 million, what we had so far,it will grow. But I've alwaysfelt a pandemic would happen in some time. I've actually used that term indescribing things that can interrupt the progress of not only this country, butthe world. It won't stop the progress of the country or the world.this is aterrible event that's occurring. We don't know how terrible. It may not turnout to be that big a deal when we get through, but it may turn out to be a verybig deal, and we just don't know. And I certainly don't know. And nobody knows.

但是280万死亡人数是目前的,它还会增长。但我总觉得大流行病迟早会发生。我确实用过这个词来描述那些不仅会阻碍这个国家进步,而且会阻碍整个世界进步的事情。但(此次疫情)它不会阻止国家或世界的进步。我的意思是,这是一个正在发生的可怕的事件。但我们不知道它有多可怕。当我们度过难关的时候,它可能就不会变成一件大事,但它存在变成一件大事的可能,只是我们还不知道而已。我当然不知道,而且也没人知道。

But there will be other things that happen in the world in thenext five, 10, 20 years. That's the way the world works. It's not a totallyeven course. The progress of mankind has been incredible. And that won't stop. Youflew out here yesterday or today and you flew over a country that 250 yearsago, there wasn't anything here. That's only three of my lifetimes. And therewasn't anything here. And now you've got all these beautiful farms and you'vegot 260 million vehicles in the country. And you've got 80 million owneroccupied homes and and you've got 155 million or whatever it is million peopleworking.It's incredible.

但在未来5年,10年,20年,世界上还会发生其他事情。世界就是这样运转的。这并不是一个完全公平的过程。人类的进步是不可思议的,人们进步的步伐不会停止。我的意思是,你昨天或今天飞到这里,你飞到一个250年前这里什么都没有的国家。在我祖上三辈的时候,这里什么都没有。现在这里有这么多漂亮的农场,全国有2亿6千万辆车。8000万人拥有自己的房屋,1.55亿人在工作。这太不可思议了。

When I had a medical check the other day, I went to incrediblemedical facilities that are just two or three minutes from here. And thatwasn't here-- wasn't even here 100 years ago. So we keep making progress.

你知道,那天我做了一次体检,我去了离这里只有两三分钟路程的医疗机构。250前年这里肯定是没有的,甚至100年前也是没有的。所以我们一直在进步。

We haven't forgotten howto make progress in this country. And we haven't lost interest in makingprogress. And that will benefit to varying degrees, all kinds of people equallyaround the world. But there will be interruptions. And I don't know when theywill occur, and I don't know how deep they will occur. I do know they willoccur from time to time. And I also know all that we'll come out better on theother end.

我们没有忘记这个国家是如何取得进步的,我们依然对取得进步兴趣高涨,这将在不同程度上对全世界所有人都有好处。但也会有中断,尽管我不知道这种情况什么时候会到来,我也不知道会发展到什么程度,我只知道这种情况会不时发生。我也知道,如果我们发展进程不被打断,一切都会更好。

富国银行正经历很多企业都会经历的过程

作为企业负责人发现错误要及时、高效的解决

ANDY SERWER:And then what about the banks? And they have been hitawfully hard.

安迪·塞尔沃:你对银行怎么看?它们(股价)受到了严重的打击。

WARREN BUFFETT: They got hammered. Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,它们(银行)遭受了重创。

ANDY SERWER: Because of rates and exposure to the energysector. Right?

安迪·塞尔沃:因为利率和能源部门的风险敞口。对吧?

WARREN BUFFETT:Yeah. And you don't know what other exposurethere is.The credit standards have been pretty darn good. And the quality ofwhat's on the books has been terrific, and the liquidity, and all of that. Thebanks are in a whole different situation than they were during the-- 10 or 11years ago. But there was-- you don't know the dominos that topple when airlinesget bad. And then that affects energy demand, because they're just-- they'reusing less fuel than they were three weeks ago.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。不知道还有什么其他的风险。信用标准已经相当不错了。账面上的资产质量很好,流动性也很好,等等。银行现在的情况与10年前或者11年前完全不同。但是,当航空公司陷入困境的时候,不清楚多米诺骨牌是否会倒下。(疫情)影响了能源需求,因为它们(航空公司)比三周前用的燃料少了。

So  there's ripple effects.And there always will be in recessions. That's the nature of recessions, is youget ripple effects. We get ripple effects on the railroad. but there's just--there's less intermodal traffic moving now because of the supply chaininterruptions and all that sort of thing. But that's-- you look at, again, in1942 when I bought my stock. The Philippines were about to fall.

这就是连锁反应。而且总会有衰退,衰退的本质就是连锁反应发生了。我们看到铁路领域已经受到连锁反应(影响),只是由于供应链中断之类的原因,现在的多式联运运输减少了。但是,你再看一下,在1942年,我当时买股票的时候——菲律宾即将沦陷。

[LAUGHS] and the day I bought it, the Dow literally was down 2%.And 2%, that was only two points, literally. It broke 100 on the downside.[LAUGHS] But 2%, I felt it.I went to school in the morning and I bought thesethree shares. And when I came home at night, I already had a loss in them.[LAUGHS]

我是说(笑),我买的那天,道琼斯指数真的下跌了2%,2%仅仅是两个百分点,(那感觉就像)下跌了100点(笑)。就是那2%(的下跌),我印象深刻。我早上去学校时买了这三只股票,当我晚上回家的时候,我已经失去了它们(笑)。

ANDY SERWER: Yeah. Well, I'm glad you kept with it.Because other people might have been discouraged.

安迪·塞尔沃:我很高兴看到你坚持下来了,因为其他人很可能会气馁。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. But,all the other kids in the 7thgrade had their money in something else. [LAUGHS]

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。我的意思是,其他七年级的孩子都把钱花在别的地方了。(笑)

ANDY SERWER: Right. Getting back to banks for just onesecond, Warren.

安迪·塞尔沃:没错,沃伦,让我们先回到银行。

WARREN BUFFETT: Sure.

沃伦·巴菲特:好的。

ANDY SERWER: Are you getting frustrated with Wells Fargo?

安迪·塞尔沃:你对富国银行感到失望了吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think they've been through a lot ofproblems. But I don't think that the fundamental franchise and all of that,I'mfine with that. They-- I forget whether it's in one out of every threehouseholds in the country,they are the mortgage servicer.That's huge. It went throughsomething that various other companies-- GEICO, in the early '70s, got-- hadits troubles. American Express, in 1964 when we got into it, it had the saladoil scandal, which everybody's forgotten about. But it was a terrifying eventthen.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我认为它们已经经历了很多问题。但这并不意味着,我对基本的特许经营和所有这些都很满意。我忘记了美国是不是每三个家庭中就有一个是抵押贷款服务者。这是数量是巨大的。富国银行正经历一些其他公司遭遇的事情,例如1970s的GEICO也遭遇了麻烦,1964年的美国运通——当时发生了色拉油丑闻(现在大家都忘了这件事),这些在当时都是非常可怕的事件。

So something will happen at some point [LAUGHS]. You can't run aplace with 395,000 people and not know that something that's happening all thetime. And you just hope you catch it fast. And the moral of the Wells Fargostory is when you hear about something, you've got act fact. And you can haveincentives out there that are incentivizing the wrong thing. And we've hadthem. Everybody's had them.

许多事情都会在某个时刻发生(笑)。你不能管理着一个有39.5万人口的地方,却不知道一直在发生的事情,你会希望自己能快点抓住重点。富国银行的故事告诉我们,当你听到某件事时,你已经有了事实的行动的。你可能从它那里得到了激励,警惕错误事情的发生。我们有过这种经历,每个人都有这种经历。

Anybody that has a sales force makes mistakes sometimes in whatthey incentivize. And bad practices will spread if not jumped on. And that'swhat,you saw at Wells. I don't see how in the world they made any money out ofthe phony accounts [LAUGHS]. But,the cost-- again, there's a ripple effect.

我的意思是,任何有销售团队的人有时都会在他们激励的事情上犯错误。而且,如果不立即采取行动,不好的做法将会蔓延。这就是你在威尔斯看到的。我看不出他们究竟是怎么从假账户中赚到钱的(笑)。但是,成本也有连锁反应。

When something goes wrong at Berkshire, if it doesn't getcorrected there'll be more problems subsequently. And when I was a Salomon,Charlie gave me the form. He said, get it right, get it fast, get it out, getit over. And any time you see a problem, and you're a responsible partly incorporate America, that means just get it right, get it fast, get it out, getit over. And- don't skip-- [LAUGHS]And just put that right in front of you and goto work on it.

当伯克希尔公司出现问题时,如果不能得到纠正,接下来就会出现更多的问题。当我还在所罗门的时候,查理给了我一张表格。他说,准确、高效地把问题找出来并解决掉。如果你是美国一家企业的负责人,任何时候你看到一个问题,那就意味着你要正确、高效地把问题找出来并解决掉。记住不要越过它们(笑)。把它放在你面前,那就解决掉它。

ANDY SERWER: OK. Fair enough. Let's switch over and talk aboutoil. You are an investor in the sector through this Occidental Petroleum deal

安迪·塞尔沃:好的,那我们换个话题,谈谈石油吧。你投资过西方石油公司,你是这个领域的投资者。

WARREN BUFFETT: Right.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的

长期不必过分担心需求下降

石油公司仍是投资的好地方

ANDY SERWER: From last year. You put in $10 billion

安迪·塞尔沃:从去年开始你投入了100亿美元。

WARREN BUFFETT: Exactly.

沃伦·巴菲特:没错。

ANDY SERWER: And maybe some more after that. I know you getpreferred dividends. But that investment has to be under water at this point.And what's your thinking?

安迪·塞尔沃:后续你可能会(在西方石油公司上)有更多的投资。我知道你会得到优先股息。但这些投资必须是私下进行的。你是怎么想的?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that the $10 billion is a preferredstock with warrants. And  there is nomarket in it.

沃伦·巴菲特:这100亿美元是有认股权证的优先股。但不受市场影响。

ANDY SERWER: OK.

安迪·塞尔沃:是的。

WARREN BUFFETT: It's a private deal. But we also have about 2% ofthe common stock. And that's down significantly. And as I said when I didit,the biggest variable is the price of oil. And I don't know the price of oil.And every day it gets quoted. If you have an opinion on oil, you can buy orsell oil either one year out or two years out or three years out or something ofthe sort.

沃伦·巴菲特:这是一笔私人交易,但是我们也有2%的普通股。这部分投资收益是显著下降的。我在做这笔投资的时候,最大的变量就是石油的价格,我无法预测石油价格每天的涨跌和变化。但如果你对石油有自己的看法,你可以持有石油公司一年、两年、三年等等。

And when oil was in the 30s, there was a lot of agony in the oilpatch. And the math just changes terrifically.It just doesn't pay to drill in alot of areas. And the Saudis can turn out a lot, but with practically nooperating costs or, they get very, very, very cheap operations.

在1930s的时候,石油行业备受煎熬,石油价格变化非常大。在很多地方钻探并不划算。沙特阿拉伯可以生产很多石油,但这些石油的生产几乎不需要运营成本,运营成本非常非常低。

ANDY SERWER:Between that war between the Saudis and the Russians,and then also perhaps the secular decline of demand given concerns aboutclimate change, is this really a great place to invest?

安迪·塞尔沃:在沙特和俄罗斯之间的战争,以及考虑到气候变化带来的长期需求下降,(石油公司)这真是一个投资的好地方吗?

WARREN BUFFETT:Well, I don't think the secular demand will changethat much. But, certainly, the immediate demand has changed. The airlines needless. And people drive less if they're working out of their homes. And you canchange--  when you're talking aboutsomething close to 100 million barrels a day, if you change it by 5%,that ishuge.

沃伦·巴菲特:我认为长期需求不会有太大变化。但可以肯定的是,当前的需求已经发生了变化。航空公司需求减少。如果人们在外工作,开车的次数也会减少。这也可以改变,假设当前每天石油产量接近1亿桶,如果改变5%,那也将是很大的。

可替代能源符合未来发展方向

ANDY SERWER:I was reading in your annual letter, on the otherhand, that you're so proud of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, which is so big inwind power and has this whole different business model. So you think thatalternatives actually have a real future?

安迪·塞尔沃:另外,我在你写给的《致股东的信》中看到,你为伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司感到非常自豪,它在风能领域非常强大,并且有着完全不同的商业模式。所以你认为可替代能源真的有未来吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, alternatives have a future, and they arethe future, over time. But you can't change the base of the world. You've got260 million vehicles on the road, or whatever number it is in the UnitedStates, and I don't know how many around the world. And they're not changingwhat they use tomorrow [LAUGHS] .And the average age of the American vehicle,the auto, I think is 11 to 12 years, something like that.

沃伦·巴菲特:哦,可替代能源是有前景的,随着时间的推移,它们就将是能源行业的未来。你不可能改变这个世界的运行基础,美国大概有2亿6千万辆车在路上——或者是其他数字,我不知道世界上有多少辆车在路上。他们不会改变明天使用的东西(笑)。你知道,美国汽车的平均使用年龄,差不多11年~12年。

And so the world can't change dramatically. And if anybody thinksyou can change energy sources 10% at a year, it just doesn't work that way.Butthe world is going in the right direction in terms of working towardminimization of carbon.

所以世界不可能发生翻天覆地的变化。如果有人认为你可以每年改变10%的能源,那是行不通的。但是世界正在朝着正确的方向前进——努力减少碳排放。

不会投资特斯拉

让电动车替代燃油车可能会阻碍经济发展

ANDY SERWER: Speaking of those cars,look at Tesla andwhat Elon Musk is doing.That kind of is a revolution. Right?

安迪·塞尔沃:谈到车,我们看下特斯拉和埃隆·马斯克正在做什么吧。这是一场革命。对吧?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, it's an important change. But if youguessed on the penetration of electric cars-- let's say we, sell 17 million orsomething year in 2030, when I'll be 100 years old. I'd be surprised if morethan a third of those would be electric.That's 2/3 of that cars plus all theones in the total vehicles on the road, it still might be 10% electric orsomething like that, worldwide.

沃伦·巴菲特:这是一个重要的改变。但是如果你猜电动汽车的普及程度,假设我们在2030年销售1700万辆左右,那时我将100岁。如果其中超过三分之一是电动的,我会很惊讶。可能的情况是,全世界占比2/3以上的车会是汽车,剩下的是约10%的电动汽车,以及其他动力汽车。

you can't change this mass of transportation. You can't change itin a year or two. It is changing, and it should change. But in terms of justthe math of replacing it-- if we said we're going to junk all the cars we have,the economy would stop.  we can't producethat. We couldn't replace it.

你不可能在一两年内改变交通方式。是的,交通方式正在改变,也应该改变,但是就替换它的数学问题来说——如果我们说我们要丢弃我们所有的汽车,经济就会停摆。因此我们不能(停止)生产它们(传统燃油汽车),我们也做不到替换它。

ANDY SERWER: What do you think of Elon Musk, though? Haveyou met him? And would you invest in Tesla?

安迪·塞尔沃:你怎么看埃隆·马斯克?你见过他吗?你会投资特斯拉吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: [LAUGHS] Well, I think you're trying to baitme a little bit.

沃伦·巴菲特:(笑)嗯,我觉得你是想让我上钩。

ANDY SERWER: I'm just asking you. You can say no, no, andno or yes, yes, and yes.

安迪·塞尔沃:(笑)我只是问你。你可以说“不",或“是”。

WARREN BUFFETT: No, listen, he's done some remarkablethings.

沃伦·巴菲特:不,听着,他做了一些了不起的事情。

ANDY SERWER: Have you met him?

安迪·塞尔沃:你见过他?

WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, yeah. He's joined The Giving Pledge someyears ago. That-- I've only met him once or twice. But, yeah,  I've talked with him, but not for quite awhile.

沃伦·巴菲特:哦,是的。他几年前加入了“捐赠誓言”,我只见过他一两次。是的,不久之前我们会过面。

ANDY SERWER: And would you invest in Tesla?

安迪·塞尔沃:你会投资特斯拉吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: No.

沃伦·巴菲特:不会。

负利率让我感到困惑

这将降低股票投资最低预期回报率

ANDY SERWER: OK. Let's switch over and talk about bondyields and interest rates. Because that's a crazy subject right now.

安迪·塞尔沃:好的。让我们来讨论一下债券收益率和利率。这是一个疯狂的话题。

WARREN BUFFETT: It is really crazy.

沃伦·巴菲特:这的确很疯狂。

ANDY SERWER: Yeah. So what is your thinking on that?

安迪·塞尔沃:是的,那你怎么看?

WARREN BUFFETT: I don't know [LAUGHS]. I have never beenable to predict interest rates, and I've never tried. Charlie and I, we believein trying to function on what,or to focus on what's knowable and important. Now interest rates areimportant, but we don't think they're knowable. And there are some things thatare-- it just gets back to something-- who was it? Don Rumsfeld or something[LAUGHS]

沃伦·巴菲特:我不知道(笑)。我从来不去预测利率,也从来没试过。查理和我,我们相信尝试着去做什么,或者专注于什么是可知的和重要的。利率很重要,但我们不认为它是可知的。有些事情是——它只是回到常识——谁能预测得准?唐·拉姆斯菲尔德(名言:不知道自己不知道)?(笑)

ANDYSERWER: Knowns knowns and unknown knows and unknown unknowns.

安迪·塞尔:知之为知之,不知为不知。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, and all that.And the question is thebox that says knowns and important。

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,完全正确。问题是同一个盒子上,可能同时写着“可知”和“重要”。

WARREN BUFFETT: Is there anything in that box? And can youtell what's in that box and what isn't in that box? And that's what I callknowing your circle of competence. And my circle of competence doesn't includethe ability to predict interest rates a day from now or a year from now or fiveyears from now. So I say, can I function without knowing that? It's the sameway as predicting what business is going to do or the stock market's going todo. I can't do any of those things. But that doesn't mean I can't do wellinvesting over time.

沃伦·巴菲特:盒子里有什么东西吗?你能说出那个盒子里有什么,没有什么吗?这就是我所说的了解你的能力圈。我的能力范围不包括预测一天以后,一年以后,五年以后的利率的能力。所以我能在不知道这些的(要素的)情况下工作吗?这和预测股市走势是一样的。我不能做这些事。但这并不意味着我不能长期做好投资。

ANDY SERWER: Things have changed. They're different nowbecause rates are so low.And you have negative rates.

安迪·塞尔:事情已经改变了。它们现在不同了,因为利率很低。甚至还有负利率。

WARREN BUFFETT: It's unbelievable.

沃伦·巴菲特:这难以置信。

ANDY SERWER: And then you were talking about EdgarLaurence Smith and his discovery about bonds versus retained earnings. And thenI think you were saying that it makes for-- as far as central banks, it makesno sense to lend at 1.4% and then to have 2% inflation.

安迪·塞尔:你谈到了埃德加·劳伦斯·史密斯和他对于债券与留存收益的发现。我记得你说过,对于央行来说,以1.4%的利率放贷,2%的通胀率是没有意义的。

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, it doesn't make sense for you to buy bondsif somebody is telling you that they're going to try and destroy the unit inwhich the bond[LAUGHS] , the promise is included. They're going to try to destroy 2% of thata year.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,如果有人告诉你,他们将试图摧毁债券管理部门,你购买债券是没有意义的(笑),也包括所谓的承诺。(其实)他们只是想要每年减少那2%(的利息)。

ANDY SERWER:Right.

安迪·塞尔:是的。

WARREN BUFFETT: And for you to now pay,now receive maybe a half apercent and pay taxes on it.

沃伦·巴菲特:现在你来支付,可能得到0.5%的收益,还要为此纳税。

ANDY SERWER: Right.so where do you think these low superrates are going to go, and negative rates?just what are the implications on?

安迪·塞尔:是的。那你认为这些超级低的利率会去向哪里,负利率的去向是哪里?这暗示了什么?

WARREN BUFFETT: I don't know.I would say that's the mostimportant question in the world. And I don't know the answer. [LAUGHS]If weknew the answer, it wouldn't be the most important question.

沃伦·巴菲特:我不知道。我认为这是世界上最重要的问题,可我不知道答案。(笑)如果我们知道答案,它就不是最重要的问题了。

ANDY SERWER: I don't like that.

安迪·塞尔:我不喜欢那样(超低利率)。

WARREN BUFFETT: [LAUGHS] No, but it's true.

沃伦·巴菲特:不,但这是真的(笑)。

ANDY SERWER: Right.So let me ask this way, What hasinvesting in equities changed given the interest rate environment? It makesequities look super cheap.

安迪·塞尔:好的,那在利率环境下,投资股票有什么变化吗?这使得股票看起来超级便宜。

WARREN BUFFETT: No, it reduces the hurdle rate.

沃伦·巴菲特:不,它降低了最低预期回报率。

WARREN BUFFETT: That's why they like to decrease it, is thatit pushes asset values higher. Because, obviously, if you promise to pay mesomething at 3% a year, that would have been a terrible instrument for me toown,almost any time in history. But today, if you're good for it, it'sfabulous. [LAUGHS]

沃伦·巴菲特:这就是为什么他们喜欢降低利率,因为这会推高资产价值。因为,很明显——在历史上的任何时候,如果你答应以每年3%的利率支付给我,那对我来说将是一个可怕的工具。但今天,如果你做得好,那才是神话。(笑)

ANDY SERWER: Do negative rates scare you, Warren?

安迪·塞尔:负利率会让你感到害怕吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: They puzzle me, but they don't scare me.

沃伦·巴菲特:不会让我感到害怕,只是会让我很困惑。

苹果是一家伟大的公司

具有令人不可思议的商业模式

ANDY SERWER: OK. Fair enough. I want to switch over toApple, one of your biggest holdings.

安迪·塞尔沃:是的,很公平。(接下来)我想(把话题)切换到苹果公司,这是你们最大的持股之一。

WARREN BUFFETT: Mm-hmm.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯。

ANDY SERWER: Does-- does the amount of shareholderinterest in this company concern you or Todd or Ted? In other words, the marketcapitalization basically relative to the S&P 500. Is that something youlook at?

安迪·塞尔沃:这家公司(苹果)大量的股东权益是否与你、托德或泰德有关?换句话说,(苹果公司)的市值基本上与标普500指数相关联(《红周刊》记者注:苹果公司市值占标普500指数的权重在5%左右),这是你所看重的吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you look at everything and relate oneto another. I mean, that's the nature of markets. So you're always trying tothink about A, what's in my circle of competence, and then what makes the mostsense that's within that circle. But the important thing is know where theperimeter of the circle.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,人们总会把自己看到的事情进行相互联系。我的意思是,这就是市场的本质。所以你总是想着,什么(A或者其他)在我的能力圈之内,然后(思考)在(自己的)能力圈里,什么是最有意义的。其实,最重要的你要时刻明白自己能力圈在哪里。

ANDY SERWER: Right.

安迪·塞尔沃:对。

WARREN BUFFETT:I mean, that's way more important than how big thecircle is or the whole bunch of other factors. So I think Apple is within mycircle of competence. I think it's at an incredible business run by a fellowthat's one of the great managers of all time. And he was underrated for awhile, but now he's being seen for what he really is. It's an astounding-- youcould almost-- if we had a--

沃伦·巴菲特:我是说,这比能力圈究竟有多大或任何其他因素都更重要。我认为,苹果公司是在我的能力圈之内的。我认为这是一个由有史以来最伟大的经理之一的家伙、经营的一项不可思议的业务。他被低估了一段时间,只是现在他真正的实力正被大家所发现。真是令人惊讶-如果我们有——

ANDY SERWER: I got one.

安迪·塞尔沃:我有一个。

WARREN BUFFETT: If we had a card table here-- well, yeah. Wecould put all their products on one table.

沃伦·巴菲特:如果我们这里有一张牌桌——嗯,是的。我们可以把它们所有的产品放在一张桌子上。

ANDY SERWER: Right.

安迪·塞尔沃:是的。

WARREN BUFFETT: Can you imagine that?

沃伦·巴菲特:你能想象吗?

ANDY SERWER: Yeah.

安迪·塞尔沃:是的。

WARREN BUFFETT: I mean, and I just think of basically theutility of those products to a ecosystem that is demographically terrific, andfinds that instrument useful dozens and dozens of times a day. It's-- it'salmost indispensable not only to individuals, business, I mean, everything.

沃伦·巴菲特:我的意思是,我只是想到这些产品对如此多的人所产生的出色的生态意义上的作用,并发现(苹果的)设备每天都被使用很多次。它几乎是必不可少的,不仅对个人、企业,而是对一切(事物来说,都是如此)。

ANDY SERWER: And you have one of these babies now. Right?

安迪·塞尔沃:你现在有一台这样的(设备)(《红周刊》记者注:iPhone)。对吧?

WARREN BUFFETT: I've got-- I've got one of them. I don'thave it on me.

沃伦·巴菲特:我有-我有一个。但我没带在身上。

ANDY SERWER: OK.

安迪·塞尔沃:好的。

WARREN BUFFETT: Because I would be afraid it would ring andI wouldn't know what to do with it. [LAUGHS]

沃伦·巴菲特:因为我害怕它(手机)会响,我不知道该怎么处理。[笑]

ANDY SERWER: It's OK. You can take a call during this. Itwouldn't be-- have a problem with that. And what sort of apps do you have? Doyou have any apps loaded?

安迪·塞尔沃:没关系。你可以在(我们谈话)期间打电话,不会有问题的。你(手机上安装了)什么应用程序?你下载了应用程序吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, they've got a lot of apps on it. But--but the other day-- actually, yesterday I was someplace. Normally, I don'tcarry it in town. I carry it out of town. But-- and somehow I was having alittle trouble just getting to the-- but this is only me. Any two-year-oldcould do this. But I-- in fact, I have trouble getting to the part where Iactually phone somebody. [LAUGHS] I use it as a phone.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,它们(苹果系统里)有很多应用程序在上面。昨天,我在某个地方。一般情况下,我不会在城里携带它(手机),(但)我(会)带着它出城。但是,不知怎么的,在(使用iPhone方面,我)有点困难,但这只是(针对)我(而言),(对于)任何两岁的孩子(来说,他们)都能做到(使用iPhone)。但我,事实上,我很难找到给别人拨打电话(那个功能在哪里)。我把它用作电话(《红周刊》记者注:或主要用来接电话)。

ANDY SERWER: Right. So you're not—

安迪·塞尔沃:好的。所以你不是-

WARREN BUFFETT: But I got a lot of apps on it.

沃伦·巴菲特:但我有很多应用程序在手机上。

ANDY SERWER: Have you used any of the apps?

安迪·塞尔沃:你用过这些应用程序吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: No.

沃伦·巴菲特:没有。

ANDY SERWER: No gaming apps or—

安迪·塞尔沃:没有游戏或(其他应用程序吗)-

WARREN BUFFETT: No. People have shown them to me—

沃伦·巴菲特:没有。(但)已经有人给我展示过了(该如何使用)—

ANDY SERWER: Mm-hmm.

安迪·塞尔沃:嗯。

WARREN BUFFETT: --occasionally. They've-- there's even someapp with-- with me involved, on this newspaper boy tossing thing. It's the appthat-- that I revealed a year ago in the movie that-- I went out to California.And-- and to Tim Cook very patiently spent hours trying to-- trying to move meup to the level the average two-year-old. And I didn't quite make it. [LAUGHS]But I supposedly developed an app in this little movie we had. And as I walkedout, I turned to Tim and I said, by the way, what is an app? [LAUGHS] We had alot of fun. He is a terrific guy.

沃伦·巴菲特:-(只是)偶尔。它们甚至有一些应用程序和我有关,是一个报童扔东西的应用。这个应用程序,我一年前在电影中透露过。(当时)我去了加利福尼亚,而且,蒂姆·库克非常耐心地花了几个小时,试图把我(使用手机的水平)提升到两岁孩童的平均水平,但我没能成功。我在这部小电影里开发了一个应用程序。当我走出去的时候,我转向蒂姆,并对他说,“顺便问一下,什么是应用程序?”我们(在一起交谈得)很开心。他是个很棒的人。

ANDY SERWER: Right. And—

安迪·塞尔沃:是的。

WARREN BUFFETT: And that is a-- that is an unbelievableproduct.

沃伦·巴菲特:这是一个令人难以置信的产品。

ANDY SERWER: Just one more about those stocks-- you know,the so-called FANG stocks?

安迪·塞尔沃:(我还有一些问题)关于那些股票,-你知道,所谓的FANG股票?

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

ANDY SERWER: And, again, you know, does that approach asort of bubble to you, when you just see—

安迪·塞尔沃:而且,(我还想再问问你),你知道,它们(FANG)对你来说,接近泡沫(的水平)了吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: No, it's just the opposite. I mean, you'reseeing in this kind of a market, those companies don't need capital. Well,Netflix needs capital. They're new. But, basically, the big-- the big companiesin market value don't need capital. And that will separate them from-- evenmore from the rest of the pack.

沃伦·巴菲特:不,正好相反。我是说,显而易见,那些公司不需要资本。嗯(当然),Netflix(除外)需要资金。但是,基本上,市值大的公司不需要资本。这(个特点)将使得它们与其他公司,甚至更多的公司与众不同。

I mean, they-- they have a incredible business model. If you lookat the top 10 market value of companies-- go back 10 years, 20 years, 30 years.I mean, go back years. It's, you know, it's AT&T, the old AT&T, and theGeneral Motors, and Standard Oil in New Jersey, as it was called then. You knowthe 500. You worked on it.

我是说,它们有着不可思议的商业模式。如果你看看这个市场上前十大市值的公司-追溯到10年、20年、30年,我是说,回到过去许多年,你知道,它们(具有不可思议商业模式的公司)是AT&T,旧的AT&T,通用汽车以及新泽西的标准石油公司(美孚石油),也就是(当时一些人为之)工作的世界500强。

And-- but those companies needed money. I mean, when AndrewCarnegie was-- went in the steel business, he built one steel mill, you know,made money that, saved it. Then three or four years later, he built anotherone. And it was-- it was capital retention and-- and oil business, the sameway, whatever it was. And now the really incredible companies are the ones thataccount for just the top five would-- would be well over 10% of the marketvalue of the company-- country. They really don't-- they don't take capitalthat-- they make it-- their suppliers may in some cases, and all that. But--but they are really-- overwhelmingly, they're capital light. And-- and that isreally different.

但是那些公司需要钱。我是说,当安德鲁·卡内基从事钢铁生意时,他(需要)建立一家钢铁厂,你知道,(然后他)赚了钱,(再把赚到的钱)存下来。三四年后,(通过留存下来的钱)他又造了一座(钢铁厂)。这就是资本留存以及石油业务。不管是什么(其他类似业务),它们都是一样的。现在,真正令人难以置信的公司是那些前五名的公司,它们的市值甚至会达到或超过(国家/州)(生产力)的10%。它们并不需要(外在的)资本(补给)——它们自己就能赚到——(尽管)在某些情况下,它们的供应商可能会(需要)。它们绝大多数都是轻资产,这是它们真正差异(与以前的公司相比)所在。

错过谷歌 已经少量买入亚马逊

不知道FANG目前是否有泡沫

ANDY SERWER: Then the question is, why don't you own Googleand Amazon, those two in particular? Let's take those two.

安迪·塞尔沃:那么(接下来的)问题是,你为什么不拥有谷歌和亚马逊这两家公司呢?让我们来看看这两家公司吧。

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that's a pretty damn good question.[LAUGHS] But I don't have a good answer. [LAUGHS] The-- I definitely shouldhave owned Google. They-- the guys came to see me before they did a-- when theywere—

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,这是个非常好的问题。但是我没有好的答案。我确实本来应该拥有谷歌。他们曾经来拜访过我。

ANDY SERWER: Larry and Sergey?

安迪·塞尔沃:拉里和谢尔盖?(《红周刊》记者注:谷歌的两位创始人)

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Yeah. And they-- and we were-- thiswas a long time ago. I mean, this was before they went public. They weretalking to me a little bit about it. And we were using search at GEICO in asignificant way. So I knew the power of search. And I actually used search alot myself, starting with Altavista or something, going way back. And search isincredibly valuable to me. And-- and it was valuable to GEICO.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,是的。这是很久以前的事了,还在他们成名之前。他们跟我谈了很多(关于Google的事)。我们在GEICO(《红周刊》记者注:GEICO即政府员工保险公司,美国第四大汽车保险公司,是沃伦·巴菲特的BerkshireHathaway投资公司的合伙人)进行了一次重要的搜索,所以我知道搜索的力量。实际上,我自己也经常使用搜索,从Altavista(《红周刊》记者注:全球最知名的搜索引擎公司之一,同时提供搜索引擎后台技术支持等相关产品)或其他东西开始。搜索对我来说是非常有价值的,而且它对GEICO也很有价值。

So I-- I was capable of understanding of that. On the other hand,I had seen that Google was taking out Altavista to some degree. And I thought,you know, maybe somebody else can take out Google. And maybe if they'd startedearlier, somebody else could have taken out Google. So I was always a stepbehind on that.

所以我能理解。(但)另一方面,我(也)看到谷歌在某种程度上淘汰了Altavista。(所以)我想,也许其他人(也)可以干掉谷歌。如果它们早一点开始,可能(就)会干掉谷歌。所以我总是落后一步。

ANDY SERWER: What do you do? Do you kick yourself? Whatdoes Warren Buffett do?

安迪·塞尔沃:你在做什么?你给了自己一下吗?这是沃伦·巴菲特做的(决策)吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: No, I don't. Because I've made so manymistakes. You know, I'd-- if I tried to kick myself, my legs would beexhausted.

沃伦·巴菲特:不,不是的。我承认我犯过很多错误。你知道,如果我想踢自己,我的腿会累坏的。

No. It-- you don't— you don't kick yourself in the investment. Andincidentally, you don't kick yourself when you make a mistake. I mean, it ispart of what you do.

你绝不想在投资上(惩罚)自己的。顺便说一句,即使你犯了错误你也不会惩罚自己。我是意思是,这(犯错)是工作的一部分。

ANDY SERWER: Right. And what about Amazon, same kind ofthing?

安迪·塞尔沃:对。那么,亚马逊这家公司呢?

WARREN BUFFETT: Incredible business.

沃伦·巴菲特:(它也是一笔)不可思议的生意。

ANDY SERWER: But why-- why-- it's not too late to buythese stocks, is it?

安迪·塞尔沃:但是,为什么(你没有买入这家公司)呢?现在买这家公司的股票还不晚,是吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: I don't know.

沃伦·巴菲特:我不知道。

ANDY SERWER: But you're not-- you're not buying themright now.

安迪·塞尔沃:但是,你现在并没有买入它们。

WARREN BUFFETT: No. But I don't buy much.

沃伦·巴菲特:不,(我买了)只是买的不多。

ANDY SERWER: Mm-hmm.

安迪·塞尔沃:嗯。

WARREN BUFFETT: Thos those are the kind of businesses Ithink about a lot. Charlie thinks about them a lot. You can't help but do it. Imean, those are incredible business stories.

沃伦·巴菲特:它们是那种我经常会思考的生意。查理(也)想了很多,你会忍不住要这么做。我是说,它的商业模式非常不可思议。

ANDY SERWER: Right. I mean, so the door is not closed,necessarily.

安迪·塞尔沃:是的,我是说,(你还可以对它们进行投资)这扇门并没有关着。

WARREN BUFFETT: No, no.

沃伦·巴菲特:不,不(我没说它关了投资者的门)。

ANDY SERWER: Right.

安迪·塞尔沃:对。

WARREN BUFFETT: No, not at all.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,完全没有。

ANDY SERWER: OK.

安迪·塞尔沃:好的。

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, actually, one of the other fellows nowhas bought a little Amazon. I mean, that-- that showed up in our 13F.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,实际上,我们团队中另一个人买了一点亚马逊的股票,这个我们在13F财报中已经披露过了。

ANDY SERWER: Ted or Todd?

安迪·塞尔沃:是泰德还是托德?

WARREN BUFFETT: One of the two.

沃伦·巴菲特:他们两个中的一个。

ANDY SERWER: One of the two bought some Amazon?

安迪·塞尔沃:他们两个人中有一个买了一些亚马逊?

WARREN BUFFETT: Mm-hmm.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯。

ANDY SERWER: Right.

安迪·塞尔沃:好的。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. That-- that was in our 13F. Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,这个之前在我们的13F报告中披露过。

WARREN BUFFETT: Right. There you go. You took the plunge.

安迪·塞尔沃:好的。这样做,你冒险了。

WARREN BUFFETT: Not me.

沃伦·巴菲特:不是我。

ANDY SERWER: Berkshire-- Berkshire took the plunge.

安迪·塞尔沃:那是伯克希尔冒险了。

WARREN BUFFETT: Berkshire took-- yeah, Berkshire. They cando anything they want to do. They can't short Berkshire's a few stocks.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,是伯克希尔冒险了。除了不能卖空伯克希尔自己的股票,它们可以做任何他们想做的事。

ANDY SERWER: And then speaking a little bit more aboutAmazon and Jeff Bezos, he owns "The Washington Post."

安迪·塞尔沃:(接下来)谈一点关于亚马逊和杰夫·贝佐斯的事吧,他拥有《华盛顿邮报》。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

ANDY SERWER: They offered it to you, my understanding9 is,when it is for sale. Or-- I mean, you talk to Don a lot.

安迪·塞尔沃:我的理解是,当它需要出售时,会向你提供(出售方案)。而且,你经常跟唐纳德(特朗普总统)谈论此事。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. I talk to Don a lot. Sure.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,当然,我和唐纳德(特朗普总统)谈了很多。

ANDY SERWER: Talk to-- and why-- do you regret not buyingit or did you not?

安迪·塞尔沃:谈谈--为什么--你后悔没有买它吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: No. I-- If I buy anything, it's got to befor Berkshire. You know, I-- I mean, I'm-- I'm just committed that way. I'mmentally-- Berkshire comes before me. And-- and it would have been a mistakefor the-- for Berkshire to own "The Washington Post."

沃伦·巴菲特:不。如果我买什么东西,那一定是为了伯克希尔的。我是说,我只是这样做。我将伯克希尔(的利益)放在我个人之前。如果伯克希尔拥有《华盛顿邮报》,这对伯克希尔来说可能会是个错误。

ANDY SERWER: Because of the political stuff?

安迪·塞尔沃:因为政治方面的事情吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

ANDY SERWER: Yeah.

安迪·塞尔沃:好的。

WARREN BUFFETT: People would think-- I will guarantee youthat-- that Jeff Bezos is not telling Fred Hiatt [LAUGHS] or anybody there--Marty Baron-- but I'll bet-- I'll bet 80% of the people, you know, or some hugenumber of people just generally think that-- that if you own a newspaper, youtell them what to run every day. I mean, it's just-- it-- you know, it doesn'thappen very often.

沃伦·巴菲特:人们会认为-我向你保证-杰夫·贝佐斯不会告诉弗雷德·希亚特或那里的任何人-马蒂·巴伦-但我敢打赌-我赌80%的人,或者很多人只是普遍认为-如果你拥有一份报纸,你会告诉他们每天应当做些什么事情。我是说,你知道这并不经常发生。

It used to happen with some papers, obviously, and it probablydoes still happen with some papers. But that is not the way it generally works.And that certainly wouldn't be the way it would work at The WashingtonPost."

很显然,它曾经发生在一些报纸身上,而且它可能仍然发生在一些报纸身上。但这不是它通常应当具有的运行方式。这肯定(也)不是《华盛顿邮报》的运行方式。

ANDY SERWER: Yeah. I mean, it sounds like President Trumpmay think that.

安迪·塞尔沃:是的。我是说,听起来特朗普总统可能会这么认为。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Well, a lot of-- and, I mean, KayGraham did not tell Ben Bradlee what to write. I can—

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。嗯,有很多-我是说,凯·格雷厄姆没有告诉本·布拉德利该写什么。我可以—

ANDY SERWER: Right.

安迪·塞尔沃:是的。

WARREN BUFFETT: You know, that, I know. I mean, and-- well,I don't Really know Don and Graham. But, I mean, it-- they just don't do it.But I will guarantee you that, you know, particular among political figures,but really in the- the man on the street, they-- 90% of them probably wouldthink that the-- that the Graham family was telling-- telling editors what todo.

沃伦·巴菲特:你知道,我并不完全理解唐纳德和格雷厄姆。但是,他们并不会这么做。我向你保证,你知道,特别是在政治人物中,实际上,他们中90%的人可能会认为-格雷厄姆家族-会告诉-告诉编辑该怎么做。

ANDY SERWER: I know you're reluctant to wade intopolitics.

安迪·塞尔沃:我知道你不愿意涉足政治。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

ANDY SERWER: But I want to ask you—

安迪·塞尔沃:但我还是想问你—

WARREN BUFFETT: I may demonstrate that reluctance here.

沃伦·巴菲特:我可以在这里证明这种不情愿。

ANDY SERWER: Right. Good. You will in a second, I'm sure.

安迪·塞尔沃:对。是的。你马上就会的,我肯定。

ANDY SERWER: But, you know, we've talked about thisbefore, Warren, that the country seems to be fairly divided up. And you've saidit's eventually going to get back together. Do you still feel that way?

安迪·塞尔沃:但是,你知道,沃伦,我们以前谈论过这件事,就是国家内部看起来矛盾重重,可你说过它最终会归于圆满。你现在还有这种感觉吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, sure. Sure.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。当然。

ANDY SERWER: What will-- how will we get back together?

安迪·塞尔沃:我们会怎样--我们会怎样重新走向圆满?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you could have asked me the samequestion in the Vietnam period. And I will tell you, it was-- it was even moreintense. I mean, I watched-- I happened to be in New York at the time. And Iwatched that crowd come up to Wall Street. I mean, it was coming up whicheverstreet that is-- Broad Street. Oh, no. Yeah, may have been Wall and Broad. Butwhatever-- I mean, have seen—

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,你好像在越战时期问过我同样的问题。我要告诉你,那时更强烈。我是说,我当时碰巧在纽约。我看着那群人来到华尔街,不管是哪条街—是啊,可能是—布罗德街。无论如何,我曾经见过—

ANDY SERWER: They were demonstrators.

安迪·塞尔沃:他们是示威游行者。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. And during the Vietnam period, I mean,people were just as inflamed, I would say, on both sides. I mean, there were--it was a-- it was-- and it went on a long time. And, you know, caused thepresident not to run again, in the case of Johnson. So this country has been--we had a civil war. I mean, you know, and-- so we've-- we've had-- we've alwayshad-- we're a democracy.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。在越战时期,两边都处于胶着(状态),它持续了很长时间。而且,你知道,造成约翰逊总统时期无法正常运行的状况。

You know, we've got-- we'll have strong opinions on both sides.And sometimes they-- they rev up more than others. But I do not regard this assome unique period in history. All-- everybody-- I've been reading about uniqueperiods in history ever-- [LAUGHS] ever since I was old enough to read. So I—

你知道,我们双方都有强烈的意见。但我不认为这是历史上某种独特的时期。所有的人—我们每个人,我一直在阅读关于历史上这段独特时期的(书籍),对我来说,我已经不够年轻再去读这些内容。

ANDY SERWER: Some of the things that—

安迪·塞尔沃:有些事情—

WARREN BUFFETT: My dad-- listen, I grew up in a householdthat-- that it was the family's belief-- and it went beyond my dad and mymother, but went to, you know, all my uncles and all-- I mean, that basically,that-- the country had gone socialist, you know, in the '30s.

沃伦·巴菲特:我在一个家庭里长大,(我爸爸是这个家庭的)信仰,基本上,国家在30年代已经社会主义化—这超出了我爸爸和我妈妈的(认知)范围。

ANDY SERWER: Your father was a Republican congressman.

安迪·塞尔沃:你父亲是共和党议员。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Yeah, very Republican. We didn't getdessert at dinner until we said something nasty about Roosevelt. I mean--[LAUGHS] my sister's [INAUDIBLE]. It was sort of ritualistic. [LAUGHS]

沃伦·巴菲特:是啊,非常(具有)共和党(倾向)。如果我们不在餐桌上说点关于罗斯福的坏话,我们是不会在晚餐上得到甜点的。我是说,我的姐妹们...有点仪式感。

伯克希尔仍处于“换挡期”

巴菲特99%的钱来自伯克希尔收益

ANDY SERWER: You said-- shifting gears here a littlebit, you said you might continue to underperform the S&P 500. You mightcontinue to do that.

安迪·塞尔沃:你说过会在这个阶段“换个档”,伯克希尔的表现可能会继续低于标普500指数。你会继续这么做吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I will from time time, for sure.

沃伦·巴菲特:没错。

ANDY SERWER:But what is the appeal, then, to own BerkshireHathaway stock?

安迪·塞尔沃:那么伯克希尔的股票还有什么吸引力呢?

ANDY SERWER:Well, I've got 99% of my money, so[LAUGHS] it appeals to me. But it appeals-- actually, it appeals to a lot ofpeople who feel very comfortable with the fact that we'll never blow it,basically. And I think that they could feel very certain, relative to almostany company, that, you know, we won't be at the bottom quartile or something ofperformance. But they can feel very-- they also should feel very-- we're notgoing to be in the top decile, either.

沃伦·巴菲特:(哈哈)我自己99%的钱都来自伯克希尔的收益,显然这些股票对我而言有十足的吸引力。实际上它还吸引了很多其他人,这些人认为持有伯克希尔是非常舒服的赚钱方式,因为他们相信我们不会把事情搞砸——我们的收益表现不会垫底(底部1/4),当然也不会排在前十。

We-- we run it-- we run-- if you're a shareholder at Birkshire,we-- we are running the business like you've got 100% of your money in it, andyou're going to keep it in. And it's up to us to take care of it.

比如你是伯克希尔公司的一个股东,你只需要把自己100%的钱投入进来,我们则负责经营好这个公司,如何管理你的财产取决于我们。

ANDY SERWER: You said that my market value-- my valueis not so high. And it seems like you're trying to really create a BerkshireHathaway that works well, maybe not in perpetuity but for a very long time.

安迪·塞尔沃:你曾经说过自己的市值不会非常高,看起来你似乎真的在尝试创造一个运营良好的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司,尽管可能不是永续的,但起码它会运营很长一段时间。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的。

寻找能够献身于伯克希尔的继任者

未来将重点投资疫苗和教育

ANDY SERWER:And then you also said, we're wellprepared for a succession. It's almost going to be embarrassing, how well.

安迪·塞尔沃:你还说过你们已经为继任做好了充分的准备,不得不说这令人感到十分尴尬。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Well--

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,嗯……

ANDY SERWER: What does that-- what does that mean?

安迪·塞尔沃:这该如何理解?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, it just means that Berkshire doesn'tneed me. And-- and we've got somebody that's extremely better than I am inmany, many, many respects to succeed me. And that's-- and-- and you want thatcompany, and I want it. I mean, you know, whatever the number may be-- but it'smany billions that will go for vaccines or whatever it may be, education, fordecades to come. That depends on that.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,这只是意味着伯克希尔不需要我了,我们有一个在很多方面都比我优秀的人来接替我的位置。可能我们想要(投资)的公司不同,但是无论如何,未来伯克希尔会有几十亿或者难以准确计数的资金将用于投资疫苗或者教育行业。

But more important, it's-- it's really a couple-- it's at leasta million people or a disproportionate number, have got something close to theirwhole savings in. And so we're their partner. I mean, Berkshire came out of apartnership. Charlie ran a partnership, I ran a partnership. We actually-- wedo look at the people as partners. And we look at a partner or somebody whotrusts us to make sure that we-- we don't-- they don't get killed in theprocess. [LAUGHS]

但更重要的是,至少有百万人把他们几乎所有的存款都投入进来,我们是这些人的合作伙伴。伯克希尔是一个合伙制企业,我和查理在运营这家合伙制企业的时候,会把所有(出资)人当作我们的合作伙伴,我们要确保不让这些信任我们的伙伴在(运营伯克希尔的)过程中被“消灭”。(哈哈)

And they are not-- if they're shooting for the top 1% ofperformance or 5% of performance, they're not going to find it. They might havefound it in our partnership where I work with tiny sums of money, but we can'tdo it. And we don't want you to think we can do it.

如果人们的目标是(收益)表现在前1%或者前5%的基金公司的话,他们是找不到有这种成绩的目标的。我们的合作伙伴可能在于我们合作的过程中也发现了这一点,我用很少的钱工作,但也做不到成绩在前1%或者前5%。我们也不希望你们认为我们可以做到。

ANDY SERWER: You said a person to succeed me, I thinkjust now. And so is that a person that we know or is it-- I mean, there arevarious people at the top of Berkshire that you've tapped. I mean, there's Gregand Ajit are going to be on stage this year at the meeting.

安迪·塞尔沃:刚才你说有个人会接替你,所以是一个我们都认识的人还是?我的意思是,你在伯克希尔公司的高层中提拔过很多人,或许格雷格或者阿吉特将会在今年的会议(伯克希尔股东大会)上登台。

WARREN BUFFETT: It depends what happens to me and what happensto other people. But—

沃伦·巴菲特:这取决于我和其他人身上发生了什么。但是……

ANDY SERWER: Mm-hmm. It's not Justin Bieber or someoneout there.

安迪·塞尔沃:嗯。不会是贾斯汀·比伯或者其他人。

WARREN BUFFETT: No. It isn't even Elon Musk.[LAUGHTER] Butthe interesting thing is, if you take our top 10 holdings at Berkshire-- abouta week ago I got $150 billion in them.

沃伦·巴菲特:不会的,也不会是埃隆·马斯克。(哈哈哈)不过有趣的是,如果你看看我们伯克希尔的前十大股东——大约一周前我就拿到了1500亿美元。

ANDY SERWER: Mm-hmm.

安迪·塞尔沃:嗯。

WARREN BUFFETT: I don't know who the successor is to theCEO in any one of those 10. And I've watched a lot of successors come and go inthose holdings. So to think that we wouldn't have somebody able is just crazy,I mean, in our case, that-- that is just the ultimate responsibility of the boardof directors, is to have the right CEO and be prepared for if something happensto that person.

沃伦·巴菲特:我不知道他们10个中的哪一个会继任CEO,我见过许多继任者在他们中来来去去。因此,认为我们没有一个可以胜任CEO的人选的这种想法是很疯狂的。在我们的体制之下,找到一个合适的CEO并为其可能发生的事情做好准备是董事会的最终责任。

ANDY SERWER: Right. You said that we possess skilledand devoted top managers for whom running Berkshire is far more than simplyhaving a high paying or prestigious job. How do you know that?

安迪·塞尔沃:没错。你曾经说过你们拥有经验丰富且忠心耿耿的顶级经理人,对他们来说管理伯克希尔远不止是一份高薪或者有声望的工作。你怎么知道他们是这样想的?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you don't know for sure. But-- butyou've got to make judgments on that. You make judgments on a marriage. Imean-- [LAUGHS] and you've got more time to look them over, and-- thenselecting successor CEOs. But that's the most important decision, though, thatyou make. It isn't what their IQ is. And it-- it isn't even necessarily thetop, maybe in a given type of managerial skill. I mean, if they're-- if they'rethe kind that will leave you tomorrow-- I mean, you really want somebody thatis devoted to Berkshire.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,你确实无法完全保证,但是你仍需要作出决策,就像为婚姻作出决策一样。(哈哈哈)我的意思是,你有充足的时间来观察他们,并挑选出CEO的候选人。尽管这是你(为伯克希尔)做出的最重要的决定,你也未必要选择那个智商最高或者管理能力最优秀的人——如果他们很可能明天就会离开伯克希尔的话。因为你真正想要的是一个能够献身于伯克希尔的人。

And incidentally, we look for the same thing in oursubsidiaries. In other words, we've got a group of managers. And dozens anddozens and dozens-- now everyone doesn't feel this way. I mean, but we've got amuch higher percentage that feel that way than, I think, than virtually anybodyelse. But-- but you can't bat 1,000 in that game.

顺便想说,我们也在自己的子公司寻找同样的人。换句话说,我们有一群经理人,他们并没有献身于伯克希尔的想法,但是我们也有相当比例的经理人是这样考虑的。只不过你不能在一场游戏里击球1000次。

阅读对于巴菲特而言意义重大

重视会计学这门“投资语言”

ANDY SERWER: Another topic that people are very keen onright now is student debt. And I know that you are really prided yourself onhelping students. Is this something that really concerns you?

安迪·塞尔沃:现在大家热议的另一个话题是学生债务。我知道你对于帮助学生感到非常自豪,这是你真正关心的事情吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, it would be a tough considerationfor me if I were going to school, whether I wanted to not only invest about a college,whether I wanted to invest the four years. I didn't want to go to college thatmuch when I went-- got out of high school. But not only the four years, but ifI had to incur, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars in student debt, I--I don't know which decision I would make.

沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,是否上学对我来说是一个十分艰难的抉择,我要考虑清楚我是否想不仅投资一所大学以及是否想投资四年。在我高中毕业的时候,我并没有那么渴望去上大学。当我不得不承担数十万美元的学生债务的时候,我不知道我会如何来抉择。

No. It's-- you know, higher education is really expensive. Andwe've helped out many thousands of students, and the Gates Foundation has donethe same thing, and other foundations that I support. But it's just expensive.It's very expensive.

你要知道,尽管我们帮助了成千上万的学生,盖茨基金会和我支持的其他基金会也做了同样的事情,但不得不说高等教育真的十分昂贵。

ANDY SERWER: Is it still worth it?

安迪·塞尔沃:现在还值得吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: It depends on the individual. It dependson the individual more than the school. I mean, it-- there's a lot to learn inthose four years. I mean, there's a lot you can learn in those four years. Andwhether you do or not depends on-- more on the individual. I don't think it-- Idon't think it makes sense for everybody to go to college. You know, and-- andI'm not so sure it made sense for me to go to college.

沃伦·巴菲特:这取决于个人而非学校。在上大学的四年间我们可以学到很多东西,但上大学并非对每个人都是有意义的,甚至我也不确定上大学对我来说是否有意义。

ANDY SERWER: Really? Come on.

安迪·塞尔沃:真的吗?愿闻其详。

ANDY SERWER: No, I'm not kidding. I mean, I learned alot by reading. And you know, I spent three or four year-- counting graduateschool, four years, that I could have been doing other things. [LAUGHS] Andthere were a lot of intelligent things to do then. Who knows? No, I don't thinkit was essential. I mean, I had some wonderful people. I met through it.

沃伦·巴菲特:我没有在开玩笑。我的意思是,我在阅读中学到很多东西。算上研究生,我花了四年的时间来上学,但我本可以做很多其他“明智”的事情,所以我不认为这(上学)是必要的。其实通过读书,我也认识了很多优秀的人。

Main thing when I went to Columbia, though ,with taking BenGraham's-- because I already knew what he was going to say. I mean, I read it.I understood-- you know, I mean, he was a very good writer. But it wasinspirational. It was inspirational more than it was educational.

一个很典型的例子,我是带着本杰明·格雷厄姆的书去哥伦比亚大学的,所以在上课之前我就知道他(格雷厄姆)会说什么了,因为我读过他写的书,我理解(他的理念)。他是个很好的作家,与其说他的作品是具有教育意义的,不如说是鼓舞人心的。

ANDY SERWER: We have a few questions from our audienceat Yahoo! Finance from Twitter. One is, what advice would you give to a younginvestor today?

安迪·塞尔沃:雅虎财经的读者在推特上发表了一些对您的提问,其中一个问题是,对年轻的投资者您有什么建议?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you've got to understand accounting.You've got to-- that's got to be like a language to you. And so, yeah, you haveto know what you're reading. I mean, and unless you know that language-- andsome people have more aptitude for that than others. You know, but-- and that'sone thing I learned by myself. Now, I took courses in it afterwards, forexample. But I learned it myself in a-- largely.

沃伦·巴菲特:必须要懂会计。对你(投资者)来说,会计就像一门语言,你必须知道你在读什么。有些人在这方面会比其他人更有天赋,但我是自学的。虽然我后来选修了一些课程,但大部分的会计知识我都是自学的。(注:巴菲特在童年就开始了送报纸、挨家挨户地推销口香糖和可口可乐等创业活动,11岁时就自学了会计基础知识)。

So you have to do that. And you have to have the attitude thatyou're buying part of a business, and not that you're buying something thatwiggles around on a chart or that has resistance zones or 200 day movingaverages or that you buy puts it calls on or anything like that. You're buyingpart of a business. And if you buy intelligently into a business, you're goingto make money.

你(投资者)必须这样做。同时要知道(投资)是在买入一家公司的一部分,而不是在买入某个在图表上摇摆不定的东西,或是有阻力区域的东西,或是有200天移动平均线的东西,或是买进看跌期权或看涨期权的东西,或诸如此类的东西(注:巴菲特指的是投资者不要依靠技术分析,即通过研究股票价格在不同时期的走势来做投资)。

And then you have to buy something that, in my view, which youdo if you're buying a business, that you're not going to get a quote on forfive years. That they're going to close a stock exchange tomorrow for fiveyears, and that you'll be happy owning it as a business.

如果你明智地投资了一家企业,你就会赚钱,那么你就必须买这家公司的股票。在我看来,如果你买了一家5年内都无法报价的公司,例如,明天证券交易所就要关闭5年,你会很高兴拥有这家公司。

If you ownedCoca-Cola, it didn't make any difference in 1920 if it went public. Theimportant thing was what I was doing with customers. And you probably wouldhave been better off if there wasn't any market in it for 30 or 40 years.Because then you wouldn't have gotten tempted to sell it. [LAUGHS] And you justwatch the business and you'd watch it grow and you'd feel happy. So the-- theproper attitude toward investing is much more important than any technicalskills.

例如,如果你拥有可口可乐,它与在1920年上市时没有任何区别。重要的是它如何对待客户。如果30年或40年没有任何市场表现,你可能会过得更好,因为那样你就不会受到出售它的诱惑。你只要看着这个行业,看着它成长,你就会感到快乐。因此,正确的投资态度比任何技术技能都重要得多

积极的态度不仅能带来更好的生活体验

还有助于“健康长寿”

ANDY SERWER: Another question from one of our audiencemembers-- with all your success, what keeps you and Charlie going?

安迪·塞尔沃:另一个观众提的问题,你那么成功,是什么让你和查理走下去的?

WARREN BUFFETT: We have so much fun. I just talked to himthe other day for an hour. And we have fun every time we talk. And we arehaving-- we are doing what we love to do with people we love every day. And,you know, I've been lucky on health. God knows, you know, how Charlie at 96 ofme at 89 with our habits and everything, it's-- I don't know what it's a testamentto. I think, actually, being happy in what you're doing makes a huge difference.

沃伦·巴菲特:我们之间有很多乐趣。前几天我刚和他交谈了一个小时,我们每次谈话都很开心。我们每天都和自己爱的人做喜欢做的事情。而且我们都是非常幸运的,查理96岁了,我89岁了,这或许与健康的生活习惯有关。在我看来,每天做能让自己开心的事情能够对“健康长寿”起到很大作用。

And you don't want to go around having grudges against people.And, I mean, all these things that cause you to think negatively, whether it'sabout the world or about individuals or about your own bad luck or anything ofthe sort. Just forget it, basically. I think-- I think that helps.

学会忘记,能够在很大程度上帮助我们维持快乐的心情。你一定也不想生活在对他人的怨恨中——那就忘掉那些让你产生负面情绪的因素,比如让你不开心的人和事,或者你的坏运气。把它们统统忘记吧。

ANDY SERWER: How do you clear that stuff out of yourmind?

安迪·塞尔沃:你是如何把这些负面情绪从脑子里清除出去的?

WARREN BUFFETT: I don't know whether you're born to someextent that way. But you certainly see the works, and the-- you know, I mean,you just take the people you know. And the ones are sour at the world, theworld gets sour on, you know, basically. [LAUGHS] And so it's-- now it's goingto be tough, you know, in certain situations. And if you've got some majorillness or something, I'm sorry. I mean, that's just-- you can have terribleluck at life, and that's-- it's-- and it can seem very unfair to you.But you'regoing to have-- you're going to have a better experience in life if-- ifbasically you-- you see the positive side of things.

沃伦·巴菲特:我不知道你是否在某种程度上生来如此(爱抱怨),但你肯定也见过这样的人或事——那些经常对世界不满意的人,他们的生活也会一团糟。如果你是遭遇了身患重疾这样的困难,那么我很抱歉。我的意思是,你在生活中可能会经历“霉运”,这对你来说似乎很不公平。但是如果你能看到事物积极的一面,你会收获更好的生活体验。

ANDY SERWER: Hm.

安迪·塞尔沃:嗯。

WARREN BUFFETT: You know, when I sold shirts at Penney's and Iwas getting $0.75 an hour, I would rather have been doing something else.[LAUGHS] But since I've been certainly 24, I've always-- I've never-- therewasn't anything else I wanted to do. And I had everything I needed, and lifewas wonderful. And-- and I tell those students that comes-- you know, you gotto live. So you may take a job at first for some organization that you don'tadmire or work for somebody you don't admire.

沃伦·巴菲特:我在彭尼百货卖衬衫的时候每小时挣0.75美元,我宁愿去做别的事情。(哈哈)但是自从24岁以后,我就再也没有其他想做的事情了。我得到了我需要的一切,生活很美好。然后我便告诉那些前来的学生——你必须先维持生计。所以一开始你可能会为你不喜欢的公司工作,或者为你不喜欢的人工作。

But look for somebody you admire. Look for somebody whereyou're looking forward to working with them that day, and doing something thatyou're looking forward to, that you'd do if you didn't need the money. And Charlieand I found that a long time ago.

但要找一个你欣赏的人,找一个你愿意和他一起工作的人,做一些你愿意做的事情,即使你不需要钱你也会去做的事情。我和查理在很久以前就发现了这一点(我们适合与自己喜欢的人一起做愿意做的事情)。

ANDY SERWER: And you're going to turn 90, what, in afew months?

安迪·塞尔沃:几个月之后你就要90岁了?

WARREN BUFFETT: About five months. Yeah.

沃伦·巴菲特:是的,五个月之后。

ANDY SERWER: So looking back over these years, what areyou most proud of?

安迪·塞尔沃:回首这些年,你最值得骄傲的事情是什么?

WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, I would-- well, I'm-- I'm certainly--well, I have to give all the credit to my mother. But I'm certainly proud of howmy children have worked out. I mean, that's not easy, in a sense, having a namethat becomes famous or, you know, and thought of as having all kinds of money,although they don't. But all three of them are now in their 60s. In fact, you'relooking at a guy whose youngest child is 61. I mean that's-- [LAUGHS] andthey've all-- they've all lived very productive lives. And they-- and they allget along fine with each other, and they-- and I've seen a lot of richfamilies. It doesn't always work out that way.

沃伦·巴菲特:我得把这一切(成就)归功于我的母亲,我也确实为我的孩子们的表现感到自豪。我的意思是,从某种意义上说,“出名”并不是一件容易的事。我的孩子们现在都60多岁了,他们都过着富裕、快乐且有活力的生活。而我见过的其他很多富裕的家庭却并非都是如此。

ANDY SERWER: And another question from the audience--if you were going to start a business today, what kind of company or what industrywould you look to get into?

安迪·塞尔沃:观众的另一个问题是,如果你今天开始创业,你希望进入什么样的公司或行业?

WARREN BUFFETT: I'd-- I'd do the same thing I've done. Imean, I—

沃伦·巴菲特:我可能会做和现在一样的事情。

ANDY SERWER: Can everyone do what you do, though? Imean, do you think that?

安迪·塞尔沃:你认为其他人能作出和你一样的成就吗?

WARREN BUFFETT: I'm cut out for-- for managing money. [LAUGHS]You know, it doesn't mean it makes-- you know, different people have differentkinds of minds. I-- I play bridge with people who can remember the hand theyplayed 30 years ago, you know, and watch a basketball game at the same time.But-- but-- so there's all kinds of different smarts that people have. And I'vebeen fortunate enough that I-- mine have been in something that pays off big.And I could be, you know, very good at something else that is just as muchutility to society. But it doesn't-- it doesn't fit the market system as well.

沃伦·巴菲特:我天生就擅长理财。(哈哈哈)我还记得三十年前我也和别人一起打桥牌,一起看篮球赛。人们各有各的聪明才智,而我足够幸运,我的工作有丰厚的回报。我也可以做其他自身擅长的工作,也会对社会带来贡献,但那样并不符合市场体系(即通过分工,做最擅长的事情,以实现社会效率的最大化)。

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