产能过剩？美国政要对中国制造业的看法不靠谱

编者按：近日，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院副研究员徐天启在CHINADAILY发表文章“Is Yellen right on China's manufacturing?”。文章认为，耶伦不应战略短视并试图让中国企业停止前进，而是应思考如何利用中国制造加快美国及其他国家绿色转型大局，告诫美企抓紧研发与生产以免落后，并鼓励美企向中国市场投放更多有竞争力的产品。4月27日，文章中文版在中国日报网发表。现将文章中英文版发布如下：

2024年4月8日，美国财长耶伦在北京召开新闻发布会，在会上她阐述了其对近期中国制造业的观点，并“点名”了电动汽车、锂离子电池和太阳能三个行业。对我来说，尽管耶伦是一位有着长期工作经历与研究经验的长者，但从相关行业与经济专业的角度，我实在难以赞同她有关中国产能过剩的相关论点，原因如下：

◆首先，对中国绿色产业的“指责”毫无道理

过去几年，中国企业的确在绿色产业取得了竞争优势，这完全是靠着中国企业勇敢地尝试，以及中国政府与人民的大力支持实现的。在中国企业之前，除了特斯拉等少数企业，包括世界上的龙头汽车大厂如丰田、奔驰等，很少有人大规模投入电动车研发，几乎没有人愿意进行汽车动力电池的大规模生产。在某种程度上，正是中国企业大胆地先迈出了这一步，承担了商业风险，这才有了电动汽车今天的市场规模与商业前景，才有了各国企业在电动汽车上的大规模跟进，正如大家在2024年北京车展上大家所见到的那样，在全球首发的117款新车中，新能源车型占比超过80%，双双创下历史之最。在这件事上，我想引用近期印度外长苏杰生在与美国国务卿布林肯对话时的一句经典评论：“你应该佩服我，而非批评我”。

◆其次，新兴产业的需求边际很难确定

当我们讨论任何行业的供给和需求时，都需要加上一个时间期限。以耶伦重点关注的电动汽车、锂离子电池和太阳能为例，这些同属于新兴绿色行业，但绿色行业在中长期并不存在产能过剩问题。无论是世界能源署去年发布的《2023年世界能源投资》报告，还是彭博今年发布的《2024年能源转型投资趋势》报告，其中都认为，当前世界对清洁能源投资水平远不足以让全球在2050年实现碳中和，相关投资缺口高达60%—70%。而从中短期看，在市场供需调节机制下，一旦价格出现下跌，各国制造商也将重新调整生产计划，也就解决了目前的短期供给富裕。耶伦在发言中未能明确时间因素，这会让人觉得不够专业。

◆再次，中国企业有权合法合规扩大自身经济利益

中国企业在遵守中国法律、所在国法律、世界贸易组织现有协定前提下进行商业运营并扩大自身经济利益，这一点无可厚非。这正是市场经济机制的核心，耶伦一定明白，如果连市场经济都要遭受批评，那是无法说服各国听众的。

实际上，耶伦现在不必担心、未来也不用操心所谓的产能过剩问题，理由至少有三：

◆一是，中国正全力扩大居民收入并支持大家进行消费。

借用美国经济学家W.W.罗斯托的经济发展理论，中国经济正在其所述的“经济成熟期”向“高额群众消费期”进行演化。中国已经在2020年消灭了绝对贫困，正在致力于提升更多人的收入与消费水平。但要知道，对于一个工业化高度发达的国家来说，居民消费的提升速度远不如工业产能增长来得快，这需要一定时间完成转变。

◆二是，相关国家与中国企业都会评估并调整政策与生产。

各国能够实施的政策措施包括但不限于：调整关税贸易政策、吸引中国产能进行投资等。实际上，中国企业现在非常重视在海外的投资，自“一带一路”倡议提出以来，中国已经在共建“一带一路”国家间投入了上万亿美元，中国特别希望通过贸易与投资等互动提高“全球南方”国家的发展水平，与当地的政府、企业、居民实现共赢。

◆三是，中国政府不会支持产能过剩。中国政府的确在支持、鼓励创新与绿色转型等事项上花费巨大，但从来没有鼓励过任何形式的产能过剩。

相反，中国政府历来反对产能过剩，因为这会造成严重的资源浪费。2015年11月，中国提出进行供给侧改革，最核心的要求是“三去一降一补”，就是强调要减少与降低过剩产能。尽管如此，也应当承认，在支持创新与绿色转型过程中，一些企业利用了政策之名，却没有行转型之实。中国政府无法完全预测到市场主体的商业行为与结果，这在客观上确实造成了少数行业产能过剩。对此，2023年12月的中央经济工作会议已经做了充分的论述与讨论，可参阅相关文献与报道进行查看分析。

与其执着于关注中国哪些行业产能过剩，我个人建议耶伦财长可以更多考虑以下几个方面：

◆一是，耶伦可以思考如何利用中国制造以及阶段性的低价契机加快美国和其他国家的绿色转型大局，而非着眼于短期的新能源产品供给富裕。

◆二是，耶伦应告诫美国企业抓紧研发与生产，而非让中国企业停止前进。

耶伦一定知道，新兴行业技术迭代快，后来居上非常常见，就比如在汽车电池上，固态电池正成为新宠。中国希望世界同行在前沿领域加紧投入，共同提高技术进步的水平与速度。

◆三是，中国真诚欢迎更多有竞争力的美国产品投放中国。

耶伦与美国企业家一定都知道中国市场的未来潜力，中国人民希望出现更多像苹果、特斯拉这样的优秀企业与产品，更希望中美双方能够联手攻克更多科学技术难题，共同为人类社会寻求更美好的前景。

◆四是，尽管我不赞同耶伦财长的观点，但非常欢迎美国财长对各类经济现象继续发表其成熟的看法。

就像中国各界经常对美国的货币霸权以及其带来的国际金融失衡等现象表达我们的观点和看法一样。这不仅是为了中美双方能够更好地理解对方的关切，也能让双方更好地看待自身经济现状。正如中国的古话所讲，“有则改之无则加勉”。但是，我们反对戴着有色眼镜看着中国进行的一切行动，那是一种最终将令所有人厌恶的“双重标准”。

英文版

Is Yellen right on China's manufacturing?

At US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's April 8, 2024, press conference in Beijing, she laid out her views on China's manufacturing and highlighted three sectors: electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar. I disagree with Yellen's views for the following reasons:

It is difficult to determine the marginal demand for the emerging industries. When we discuss supply and demand, the term should be limited. For example, Yellen focuses on electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar, which all belong to the emerging green industry, and there is no overcapacity problem in the green industry looking at the medium and long term. Whether it is the IEA's World Energy Investment 2023 report or Bloomberg's Energy Transition Investment Trends 2024 report, both point out that the current level of investment in clean energy is far from sufficient to allow the world to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. And the measured investment gap is as high as 60 percent-70 percent. In the short to medium term, under the market's supply and demand adjustment mechanism, once prices fall, manufacturers in each country will also readjust their production plans, which will also address the current short-term supply glut.

The accusations against China's green industry are particularly unjustified. Over the past few years, Chinese companies gained a competitive edge in the green industry by making brave attempts earlier than others. Before China’s attempts, almost no big company was willing to invest in the mass production of electric vehicles and batteries for electric vehicles. In a way, the Chinese companies and the Chinese people boldly took the first step, bore the business risk, to create the electric car market size and business prospects, and then came the current large-scale follow-up of manufacturers in various countries. To quote India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, "You should be admiring me, not criticizing me.”

Chinese enterprises have the right to expand their economic interests in a lawful and compliant manner. There is nothing wrong with Chinese companies increasing their economic interests on the premise of complying with Chinese laws, the laws of the countries in which they operate, and the existing WTO agreements. This is exactly the core of the market mechanism. If you do not recognize this point, then you cannot convince the global audience.

In fact, Yellen does not need to worry too much about the so-called overcapacity problem whether now or in the future.

China is making every effort to expand residential income and consumption to absorb more products. Borrowing from W.W. Rostow's economic model, China is in the stage of evolution from what it describes as “drive to maturity” to “high mass consumption”. China has eliminated absolute poverty and is now working to increase the income and consumption levels of more people. However, it is important to realize that the rate of increase in residential consumption is much slower than the growth of industrial capacity in our industrial society, and it takes some time to complete the transition.

Other countries and Chinese companies will assess and make policy and production adjustments in the short and medium term. Policy measures include but are not limited to adjusting tariffs and trade policies and attracting Chinese production capacity for investment, etc. In fact, Chinese companies now attach great importance to overseas investment. Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, China has invested billions of dollars in projects in BRI countries, especially in the Global South, to corporate with local governments, enterprises and residents to realize a win-win situation.

The Chinese government does not support overcapacity at all. The Chinese government backs and encourages innovation and green transformation, but it has never been about overcapacity. Instead, the Chinese government has always been against overcapacity, considering it a serious waste of resources. In 2016, China proposed “supply-side structural reform”, with the core requirements of cutting excess capacity, destocking, deleveraging, lowering corporate costs and improving weak links, all emphasizing the need to reduce and lower overcapacity rather than increase it. However, it should also be noted that by supporting innovation and green transformation, the Chinese government cannot fully anticipate the business behavior and results of market players, which may objectively cause overcapacity in a few industries, which has already been discussed at the Central Economic Work Conference in Dec 2023.

To summarize, my personal recommendation to Yellen:

First, Yellen need to think big about how to take advantage of China’s manufacturing as well as the opportunity low green product prices offer to accelerate the green transformation of the US and the world, rather than focusing on short-term supply glut.

Second, Yellen is sure to know that emerging industries have fast technology iterations and it is very common for one to “finish first though begin last”. As in car batteries, where solid-state batteries are now becoming the new favorite, Yellen should caution US companies to catch up on R&D and production, rather than letting Chinese companies stop moving forward.

Third, Yellen and US companies surely know the future potential of the Chinese market. Chinese people sincerely welcome more competitive products to be put into China, and the emergence of more Apple and Tesla-like excellent enterprises and their products in the world. Hope that Chinese and US companies and agencies can join hands to overcome more scientific problems, and seek a better common prospect for human society.

Last, despite my disagreement with Yellen's views, I very much welcome the fact that the she continues to express her mature views on all kinds of economic phenomena, just as we have often expressed our views on the US monetary hegemony and the international financial imbalances that it has brought about. This is not only so that China and the United States can better understand each other's concerns, but also so that both sides can better view the current state of their own economies. As the old Chinese saying goes, "to correct mistakes if you have made any and guard against them if you have not." But we are opposed to looking at everything China does through tinted glasses, which is a kind of "double standard", which will ultimately be distasteful to everyone.

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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