房价拐点？

注：本文原发于跨资产星球北京时间4月15日的内容。本文仅摘取第三部分「房价拐点」，完整版可在文末获取。

如果你有在港龙持续关注相对面板，你应该可以发现地产代理篮子在整个A港的面板里转为 improving 已经 12 bars，对应的部分领头羊在绝对趋势面板也走出上行：

If you have been tracking the relative panel continuously in Honglong, you should have noticed that the property-proxy basket inside the broader A/H panel has been in improving status for 12 bars, and some of the leaders have also started to move up on the absolute-trend panel:

图：相对面板（截至 260415）https://t.zsxq.com/NIGzs

上涨背后主要由二手成交量的走强驱动。不愿意聊的原因是在我们自己的视角里，其仍然只能视作短期的交易性反弹，从更完整的基本面框架来看，目前的确还处在局部改善低点，无法证明地产已经进入趋势性拐点。

The rise has mainly been driven by stronger secondary-home transaction volumes. The reason I have not been eager to discuss it is that from our own perspective, this can still only be treated as a short-term trading rebound. Within a more complete fundamental framework, we are indeed still at a locally improved low point, but that is not enough to prove that property has entered a genuine trend inflection.

图：Real-Time Secondary Sales Volume Y/Y Growth (April Month-to-Date)

根据 JPM 的冰山指数，中国重点城市的 4 月月内实时二手成交同比增长 36%，与此同时，官方网签数据也显示重点城市成交注册节奏不错，尤其是上海，但更重要的，是市场对4月末局会议政策预期的提前博弈。

According to JPM's iceberg index, real-time secondary-home transactions in China's major cities are up 36% year on year so far in April. At the same time, official registration data also show a decent transaction-registration rhythm in major cities, especially Shanghai. More importantly, though, the market is front-running policy expectations for the late-April Politburo meeting.

图：地产 ETF 南方（日线图，截至 260415）

这种政策博弈不是不能做，我们也做过。老朋友们应该知道我们24年年中的那一轮地产押注，当时的理由同样不是基本面转好，而是市场的价格已经到了一个不得不干涉的地步...还是今天文章第一部分讲到的，行动上的不得不和逻辑上的应该是是两码事，对于博弈，我们只做前者，不做后者。

This kind of policy front-running is not untradeable; we have traded it before. Long-time readers should remember our property bet in mid-2024. The logic then was likewise not that fundamentals had improved, but that prices had already reached a point where intervention had become unavoidable. This goes back to the distinction from the first part of today's piece: what is unavoidable in action and what merely seems logical are not the same thing. In these tactical trades, we only do the former, never the latter.

今天的情况之所以不同，是因为在决策视角下，决策层进一步推出真正意义上的政策大拐弯是一个不太可能的情况，尤其是在实时数据出现见底的情况下，有形的手更加难以出现。

What makes today's situation different is that from the policy-maker's perspective, a truly major policy pivot is not very likely, especially when real-time data are already showing signs of stabilization. In that setting, the visible hand becomes even less likely to appear.

图：此前的数次会议前交易性反弹，大部分投机资金在博弈的是即将来临的会议

同时，当前的市场定价区域其实已经说不上底部，如果只是单纯对基本面数据交易，可以看得到的上限，也就只是上图的黄线附近，这是一个看得见顶的事情，换句话说，对大部分资金（至少对我们）来说，都算不上是个很好的风险回报击球区域。

At the same time, the market's current pricing zone can no longer be described as a true bottom. If one is trading purely off fundamental data, the visible upside may only extend to roughly the yellow line in the chart above. In other words, the top is visible. Put differently, for most capital, and certainly for us, this is not a particularly attractive risk-reward hitting zone.

进一步讲，什么是真正的基本面转好？相互验证。量、价、库存三要素的相互验证，才最为重要，单一成交量是难以支撑大周期的转折的。就这个更完整的框架而言，价格仍然偏弱，一线城市二手挂牌价指数继续下行，库存去化也并不超乎预期（截至目前，一手库存去化周期仍在 24 个月左右，二手库存去化周期也高达 18 个月）...

Going one step further, what counts as a real improvement in fundamentals? Cross-validation. The mutual confirmation of volume, price, and inventory is what matters most. Transaction volume on its own is not enough to support a major-cycle turn. In that fuller framework, prices are still weak, asking-price indices for second-hand homes in top-tier cities continue to decline, and inventory digestion is not outperforming expectations either. As of now, first-hand inventory still has a digestion cycle of around 24 months, and second-hand inventory remains as high as 18 months...

这是我不愿意过早喊反转的重要原因。

That is the main reason I am unwilling to call a reversal too early.

量价量价，我更关注价格本身，因为量在一定程度上并没有很高的决策价值。

Volume and price, volume and price. I care more about price itself, because volume does not have that much decision value to me in many cases.

图：量好转不等于价已经见底，房价拐点尚未成立，挂牌价领先指标仍在走弱

图：价格拐点并未出现，这不是相互验证的真正底部

图：华润置地（周线图，截至 260415）

图：华润万象生活（周线图，截至 260415）

完整内容订阅链接：https://t.zsxq.com/i90xY

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