Jiangxi Copper weighs higher bid for SolGold as copper rally fuels race for ...

by NIU Qichang

Jiangxi Copper Co, China's largest refined copper producer, is considering whether to raise its offer for SolGold Plc after the London-listed explorer rejected two non-binding approaches, underscoring intensifying competition for high-grade copper assets as prices hit record highs.

The Chinese company first made an offer on November 23 and most recently offered 26 pence per share on November 28. SolGold's board rejected the bid as inadequate and said it remains confident in its standalone prospects and told investors not to act on the proposal.

A full takeover would cost about £686 million—roughly US$900 million or 6.4 billion yuan—for the remaining 87.81% Jiangxi Copper does not own. That implied valuation is nearly triple SolGold's estimated worth in March when the Chinese producer last increased its stake. Following the recent bid, SolGold's shares climbed to 29.55 pence, indicating that any successful offer would need to be higher.

A Jiangxi Copper spokesperson said the company has not decided whether to submit a formal offer before the December 26 deadline but noted that securing more upstream resources is central to its long-term strategy. Despite holding 12.19% as the largest single shareholder, Jiangxi Copper has no board seat.

SolGold's appeal lies in Cascabel, a major undeveloped copper–gold deposit in Ecuador's Andean copper belt, a region that hosts more than half of the world's known copper resources. A 2024 study estimated 12.2 million tonnes of copper, 30.5 million ounces of gold and 102.3 million ounces of silver across proven, probable and inferred resources. The company says the project could become a top-20 global mine once developed.

Progress has stalled amid prolonged discussions over funding and permitting, reflecting the challenges of operating in Ecuador, which mining investors often view as a higher-risk jurisdiction.

The copper rally has strengthened SolGold's leverage. The London Metal Exchange's three-month contract reached a record US$11,210 per tonne on November 28, lifted by supply disruptions, low inventories and rising demand from electrification. UBS expects the metal to climb to US$13,000 by the end of 2026, citing a multi-year structural deficit.

Market optimism has fueled expectations of further consolidation among miners seeking large-scale, high-grade deposits. SolGold's fragmented shareholder base — with a heavy retail presence — may complicate any takeover, while earlier interest from global miners including BHP could re-emerge if copper prices remain elevated.

"Persuading a dispersed retail base is already difficult," said ZHAN Lin, a private-equity partner familiar with the project. "Add Ecuador's permitting risks and the possibility of competing interest, and the final outcome becomes highly uncertain."

Chinese miners have stepped up overseas acquisitions in recent years as part of a broader push to secure critical minerals. Domestic resources cover less than 30% of China's copper ore needs, increasing the strategic value of large deposits abroad.

With SolGold's valuation rising and copper markets tightening, investors are watching to see whether Jiangxi Copper will sweeten its offer or walk away, a decision that could shape how aggressively Chinese miners compete for large-scale deposits in the next phase of the copper cycle.