我是领英LinkedIn 高管，我看到职业阶梯的底部正在断裂

作者：Aneesh Raman

Mr. Raman is the chief economic opportunity officer at LinkedIn.
Raman 先生是 LinkedIn 的首席经济机会官。

There are growing signs that artificial intelligence poses a real threat to a substantial number of the jobs that normally serve as the first step for each new generation of young workers. Uncertainty around tariffs and global trade is likely to only accelerate that pressure, just as millions of 2025 graduates enter the work force.

越来越多的迹象表明，人工智能对大量工作构成了真正的威胁，而这些工作通常是每一代新一代年轻工人的第一步。 关税和全球贸易的不确定性可能只会加速这种压力，就像数百万 2025 年毕业生进入劳动力市场一样。

We saw what happened in the 1980s when our manufacturing sector steeply declined. Now it is our office workers who are staring down the same kind of technological and economic disruption.

我们看到了 1980 年代制造业急剧衰落时发生的事情。现在，我们的办公室工作人员正在盯着同样类型的技术和经济颠覆。

Breaking first is the bottom rung of the career ladder. In tech, advanced coding tools are creeping into the tasks of writing simple code and debugging — the ways junior developers gain experience. In law firms, junior paralegals and first-year associates who once cut their teeth on document review are handing weeks of work over to A.I. tools to complete in a matter of hours. And across retailers, A.I. chatbots and automated customer service tools are taking on duties once assigned to young associates.

先突破是职业阶梯的底层。在技术领域，高级编码工具正在悄悄渗透到编写简单代码和调试的任务中，这是初级开发人员获得经验的方式。在律师事务所 ，曾经擅长文件审查的初级律师助理和一年级律师正在将数周的工作交给 AI 工具，以便在几个小时内完成。在零售商中，AI 聊天机器人和自动化客户服务工具正在承担曾经分配给年轻员工的职责。

These changes coincide with a shift appearing in the latest employment numbers. The unemployment rate for college grads has risen 30 percent since September 2022, compared with about 18 percent for all workers.

这些变化与最新就业数据中出现的变化相吻合。自 2022 年 9 月以来，大学毕业生的失业率上升了 30%， 而所有工人的失业率约为 18%。

And while LinkedIn’s Workforce Confidence Index, a measure of job and career confidence across nearly 500,000 professionals, is hitting new lows amid general uncertainty, members of Generation Z are more pessimistic about their futures than any other age group out there.

与此同时，在我们最近对 LinkedIn 上 3,000 多名副总裁或更高级别的高管进行的调查中，63% 的人同意 AI 最终将承担目前分配给入门级员工的一些平凡任务。

Meanwhile, in our recent survey of over 3,000 executives on LinkedIn at the vice president level or higher, 63 percent agreed that A.I. will eventually take on some of the mundane tasks currently allocated to their entry-level employees.

虽然 LinkedIn 的员工信心指数 （衡量近 500,000 名专业人士的工作和职业信心）在普遍的不确定性中创下新低，但 Z 世代的成员对自己的未来比其他任何年龄段的人都更加悲观 。