航班取消，价格暴涨……你的五一机票还好吗？

伊朗局势持续不明朗，不断上涨的航空燃油价格对航空业的影响也日益加剧。从取消航班到调高票价，亚洲航司正在使出浑身解数应对这场燃油供应危机。

With the Middle East crisis heightening jet fuel supply risks, Asian airlines are taking action, to cope with supply instability and rising costs, from cutting flights to raising fares.

航空燃油通常占航空公司运营成本的25-30%。据国际航空运输协会的数据，截至4月17日的一周，国际航空燃油均价为每桶184.64美元。虽然较本月初的200美元以上有所回落，但对比2月28日美以对伊朗发动袭击前约90美元的价格，短短两个月不到的时间急升一倍。

Jet fuel — which accounts for about 25-30 percent of airline operating costs — saw average prices fall 6.7 percent to $184.64 per barrel in the week ending April 17 after hitting over $200 earlier this month, according to the price monitor of the International Air Transport Association.

图源：东方IC

4月20日，日本两大航空公司全日空与日本航空宣布，原定6月实施的燃油附加费调整将提前至5月1日起执行。以全日航空为例，加价后从日本飞往欧洲和北美的单程燃油附加费将从31900日元（约1365元）增加至56,000日元。

韩国主要航司也在上周宣布，5月的燃油附加费将上调至该国历史最高水平。这是韩国现行燃油附加费体系自2016年采用以来，首次适用最高档标准。其中大韩航空从韩国往返青岛、大连等短途航线将收取7.5万韩元（346元），而往返欧洲和美洲则需多支付超过100万韩元。

Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways, Japan's two largest airlines, said on Monday that they will double their international fuel surcharges from May 1.

South Korean carriers also raised fuel surcharges for May to the highest level in the country's history, reaching Level 33 for the first time, up from Level 18 in April.

With the new price hike, taking Korean Air, the country's largest full-service carrier, for a one-way long-haul trip to New York would require a fuel surcharge of 564,000 won ($383), up over 80 percent.

据韩国《中央日报》报道，作为全球最大航空燃油出口国之一，虽然政府并无正式限制，但韩国炼油商目前主要优先保障国内供应，几乎暂停出口。

此举预计对美国影响最大。标普全球海运商品数据显示，去年，美国西海岸进口的航空燃油中，超过82%来自韩国，日均进口量逾10.9万桶，遥遥领先其他供应国。

One of the world's biggest jet fuel exporters, South Korea has been focusing on domestic use and nearly suspended exports, according to Korea JoongAng Daily.

This is expected to affect its major buyers, especially the United States. According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, South Korea accounted for over 82 percent of jet fuel imports to the US West Coast.

韩国仁荷工业专门大学航空经营学系教授李辉英（Lee Hwi-young）对《中国日报》表示，虽然韩国有数月的原油储备，但其加工成航空燃油并出口的能力已几乎达到极限。他预计，出口可能要等到今年年底才能恢复正常，而这也要取决于伊朗战争的结果。

"While we have several months of crude oil reserves, our capacity to process it into jet fuel for export has reached its limit," said Lee Hwi-young, a professor in the Department of Airline Service Management and Logistics Systems at Inha Technical College in South Korea.

除了日韩以外，东南亚地区最容易受到旅游业相关冲击。英国智库牛津经济研究院4月15日发布的报告指出，由于国际旅客对国内生产总值和就业的贡献较大，菲律宾和泰国面临的风险最高。

越南、马来西亚和印尼的航空公司均已因燃油库存减少而削减航班。泰国航空也在近日宣布，将于5月取消或减少46条国内和国际航线的航班及频次，这些航线包括曼谷连接北京、新加坡及首尔等多个热门目的地。

Jet fuel shortages are constraining aviation capacity across Asia, with Southeast Asia being the most exposed to a tourism-related hit, according to an April 15 report by the British think tank Oxford Economics.

"The Philippines and Thailand appear most exposed to a jet fuel-triggered aviation downturn given the importance of international arrivals to GDP and employment," the report said, adding that airlines in Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have cut flights as fuel stocks dwindle.

国际航空运输协会理事长威利·沃尔什（Willie Walsh）17日在一份声明中表示，国际能源署对潜在航空燃油短缺的评估令人警醒，预计5月底欧洲也会开始出现由于航空燃油短缺而取消航班的情况。

While flight cancellations are already happening in Asia, IATA Director-General Willie Walsh said on April 17 that there could be some cancellations in Europe due to a lack of jet fuel by the end of May.

The IATA has also said that even if the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal operation, jet fuel prices could take months to normalize.

专家还指出，与拥有稳定客户的大型航空公司相比，油价上涨将令廉航经营更困难，因其客户群体对票价更加敏感。如果这种需求状况持续一年，廉航将很难生存，甚至面临破产风险。

Analysts said that the current uncertainty in jet fuel supply and the subsequent increase in fuel surcharges would place low-cost carriers at the biggest risk.

记者：杨涵

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