梅里·马达沙希：极端天气事件频发，城市怎么办？

IPP评论是国家高端智库华南理工大学公共政策研究院（IPP）官方微信平台。

导语：亚洲多地在11月下旬遭遇强风暴与洪涝灾害，恶劣天气已造成大量伤亡，并迫使大量民众离开家园。联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的一份评估报告预测，随着气温上升，南亚和东南亚将面临更多强降雨，季风地区发生洪水的频率将“大幅增加”。

城市承载着大量人口，是洪涝、台风等极端天气和气候事件，以及粮食、能源系统紊乱的“前线阵地”。在这一现实背景下，城市亟需将“气候韧性”内化为空间设计、生态修复和治理结构之中的系统能力。

10月27日，在2025年世界城市日城市可持续发展全球大会“绿色低碳与韧性城市”主题会议上，IPP荣誉教授、联合国教科文组织国际创意和可持续发展中心（ICCSD）顾问理事梅里·马达沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）表示，气候韧性不应仅被理解为应对冲击的能力，而应是一种将脆弱性转化为“适应性智慧”的进化过程。她指出，面对气候变化这一关键挑战，单靠技术难以奏效，亟须推动技术、生态与治理的协同融合，并将自然设计、社会公平与文化智慧纳入下一代气候解决方案之中。

IPP荣誉教授、联合国教科文组织国际创意和可持续发展中心（ICCSD）顾问理事梅里·马达沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）在会上发言。

梅里·马达沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）

华南理工大学公共政策研究院（IPP）荣誉教授、联合国教科文组织国际创意和可持续发展中心（ICCSD）顾问理事

Honorary Professorof The Institute of Public Policy (IPP) ,South China University of Technology (SCUT) ; Member of Advisory Board of UNESCO International Centre for Creative Economy and Sustainable Development（ICCSD）

正文

气候韧性城市的未来——当创新与生态相遇

The Future of Climate-Resilient Cities——Where Innovation Meets Ecology

科技创新与生态发展如何实现协同，是摆在全人类面前的共同课题。在快速城市化进程中，真正的难题并不在于创新本身，而在于如何以更负责任的方式创新，使科技进步与自然相互支撑，而不是彼此消耗。

At the intersection of our shared future lies the pursuit of scientific and technological innovation in harmony with ecological development. In an era of rapid urbanization, the central challenge before us is not innovation per se, but responsible innovation, ensuring that progress becomes an ally, rather than an adversary, of nature.

我们正身处一个具有决定意义的历史时刻。气候危机已经从警示走向现实，成为全人类共同面对的紧急挑战。这不仅需要国际社会的协同努力，更需要汇聚集体的智慧与创造力。频繁发生的洪水、热浪与野火不断昭示：城市韧性的提升，不只是承受冲击，更是一种主动的、创造性的转型行动。

We are living at a decisive moment. The climate crisis has shifted from a distant warning to a planetary emergency, one that demands not only global cooperation, but collective ingenuity. Each flood, heatwave, and wildfire conveys the same imperative: resilience is not merely a matter of endurance; it is a creative and transformative act.

12月2日，斯里兰卡尼亚姆甘多拉，迪特瓦气旋过后，强降雨导致洪水泛滥，建筑物被淹没，这是从空中拍摄的画面。图源：路透社

长期以来，韧性被视为抵御冲击、吸收风险的能力；但在气候变化的背景下，韧性需要被重新理解——它不只是抵御冲击，更是一种将脆弱性转化为适应性智慧的能力。

Long understood as the capacity to resist and absorb shocks, resilience in the context of climate change must now be redefined as something more profound, the conversion of vulnerability into adaptive intelligence.

我们常说，未来将是城市的时代；但更深层的问题在于，未来究竟取决于我们在多大程度上让自然融入城市，以及在多大程度上让“韧性”保持人性的温度。

We often say the future will be urban, but the deeper truth is this, the future will be determined by how urban we allow nature to be, and how humane we allow resilience to become.

纵观历史，城市始终映照着人类文明的本质，承载着人类的雄心与理想。然而在今天，这面“城市之镜”却呈现出一个令人不安的悖论：那些原本旨在带来稳定的体系——基础设施、经济运行方式、生活方式，以及一切构成人之为人的要素——正受到“不稳定”本身的严峻考验。

Throughout history, cities have mirrored the essence of human civilizations, where our ambitions, anxieties, and aspirations converge. Yet today, our urban mirrors reveal a troubling paradox: the very systems designed for stability, our infrastructures, our economies, our ways of life and all other elements that make humanity human, are being tested by instability itself.

如今，全球一半以上的人口居住在城市，城市活动贡献了超过70%的温室气体排放。同时，城市也是气候冲击的最前沿，正直接承受极端高温、洪涝灾害、海平面上升，以及水、粮食和能源系统紊乱所带来的压力，并由此引发森林火灾、人口迁移和贫困等一系列连锁问题。因此，城市生活已与气候挑战紧密交织，难以分割。

Urban areas now house more than half of the world’s population and generate over 70 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. They are also the frontlines of climate impacts, facing extreme heat, flooding, sea-level rise, and disruptions to water, food, energy systems, forest fires and migration and poverty. The urban experience is, therefore, has become inseparable from the climate challenge.

气候变化已不再是一个单纯的环境议题，而是对城市未来所进行的一场最为复杂、也最为严苛的“压力测试”。每一次极端气候事件，都不仅是一场气象灾害，更是对治理能力、公平正义以及社会文化的全面检验。气候变化也已成为二十一世纪城市生活的决定性背景。每一座城市，如今都站在脆弱性与机遇的交汇点上。

Climate change is no longer a purely environmental problem; it has become the most sophisticated stress test of our urban futures. Every extreme event is not just a meteorological incident, but it is a test of governance, equity, and culture. Climate change has become the defining condition of urban life in the twenty-first century. Every city now stands at the intersection of vulnerability and opportunity.

然而，复杂之中也蕴含着新的可能。作为创造力与实验精神的引擎，城市同样掌握着通往解决方案的关键。它们可以成为转型的“实验室”，在其中探索以气候敏感性为导向的空间规划、以自然为基础的设计理念，以及增强社会韧性的制度与实践，从而重新塑造人与环境之间的关系。

Yet, within this complexity lies possibility. Cities, as engines of creativity and experimentation, also hold keys to solutions. They can serve as laboratories of transformation testing new forms of climate-sensitive planning, nature-based design, and social resilience that redefine the relationship between people and their environment.

通过绿色建筑、蓝绿空间与高密度城市形态的融合，探索人与自然共生的城市发展路径。图源：作者供图

韧性城市并不仅仅是在灾害中幸存下来，它们能够学习、适应，并在冲击之后变得更加强大。这需要一种综合性的路径，将空间规划、生态修复与包容性治理有机联结起来。

Resilient cities do more than survive disasters: They learn, adapt, and emerge stronger.This requires an integrated approach linking spatial planning, ecological restoration, and inclusive governance.

当下，我们已看到一系列突破性进展：以生物基材料为代表的新型建筑技术、基于藻类的碳捕集方案、由人工智能驱动的微电网系统，以及能够充当“碳汇”的建筑形态。同时，以自然为本的解决方案——如垂直森林、透水铺装和可吸收碳的建筑立面——正在把城市的物质肌理转变为生态修复的积极参与者。

Today, we see breakthroughs in bio-based construction materials, algae-based carbon capture, AI-powered microgrids, and buildings that act as carbon sinks and we observe nature-based solutions, such as vertical forests, permeable pavements, and carbon-absorbing facades, that can transform the physical fabric of cities into active participants in ecological restoration.

当技术与自然形成协同，城市转型才真正具备可持续的可能。图源：作者提供

在这一方面，全球已经出现了一些令人鼓舞的实践案例，例如：哥本哈根的“暴雨廊道”（cloudburst boulevards,）通过专门设计的城市通道，将洪水安全、有序地引导穿行于城市空间之中。

In this regard, encouraging examples are that of, Copenhagen’s cloudburst boulevards, that are designed to channel floodwaters safely through urban spaces.

上海的“海绵城市”建设则致力于把超大城市转变为一个能够吸纳、蓄存并再利用雨水的“生命系统”。

Shanghai’s sponge city initiatives, to turn the metropolis into a living system that absorbs and reuses rainwater.

卢旺达首都基加利（Kigali）的绿色增长战略聚焦在低碳规划的同时，提升社会包容性，实现环境目标与社会发展并行推进。

Kigali’s green growth strategies, in combining low-carbon planning with social inclusion.

哥伦比亚第二大城市麦德林（Medellín）的社会城市主义实践曾经主要用于交通出行的缆车系统，如今成为连接社区、重塑社会信心与希望的重要纽带。

Medellín’s social urbanism, where cable cars once built for mobility now connect communities and foster hope.

新加坡的数据驱动型降温网络。在这一体系中，先进技术与城市历史文化遗产实现了和谐共存。

Singapore’s data-driven cooling networks, where technology and heritage coexist harmoniously.

这些案例表明，韧性的产生，正是在技术与信任相互交融、基础设施与城市身份彼此塑造的时候，也是在自然、文化与知识融汇为一种具有前瞻性的生存战略之际。因此，城市韧性并不只是“抵抗冲击”的能力，而是一种重构的过程。

These cases show that resilience begins where technology meets trust, where infrastructure meets identity, and where nature, culture, and knowledge converge into a visionary survival strategy. Urban resilience then, is not simply resistance. It is reconfiguration.

一座真正具备韧性的城市，能够在冲击之后实现理性而有序的自我重组：使工程体系与生态系统相协调，让经济运行与地球边界相契合，并促使文化价值与行为方式的转变彼此呼应。这种重组，依赖于跨学科的智慧：能够倾听生态的工程学、尊重地球边界的经济学，以及激发行为转变的文化叙事。

A resilient city reorganizes itself intelligently after shocks, aligning engineering with ecology, economics with planetary boundaries, and culture with behavioral change.This reorganization requires cross-disciplinary intelligence: engineering that listens to ecology, economics that respects planetary boundaries, and cultural narratives that inspire behavioral change.

因此，城市规划必须从事后规制走向前瞻预判，并清醒地认识到：一座“智慧城市”或许在技术上足够聪明，却依然可能在结构上极其脆弱。

Urban planning must, therefore, evolve from regulation to anticipation and assume that a smart city can besmartbut still profoundly fragile.

城市韧性需要在城市空间、信息系统、能源结构、产业布局、功能分区、绿色空间与公共交通之间进行系统性、协同化的整体设计。图源：嘉宾演讲ppt

我们真正需要的，是“智慧而有远见的城市”——将计算智能与文化智慧相结合的城市。因为缺乏包容性的适应注定难以奏效，而没有同理心的技术只会制造疏离。在这样的愿景之下，城市不应被设计为凝固在时间中的基础设施，而应被视为具备进化能力的“生命体”。

What we, therefore, need arewise cities:cities that combine computational intelligence with cultural wisdom, since adaptation without inclusion can fail, and technology without empathy alienates. In such a visionary approach, we must design cities not as infrastructures frozen in time but as living organisms capable of evolution.

同样重要的是，气候行动不能忽视文化智慧。它不应只是点缀，而应成为理解社区风险认知与变化态度的诊断工具。面向未来的气候解决方案，必须将深度技术与深层人性相融合——因为气候创新，既发生在代码与碳排放层面，也根植于人的行为与信念之中。

Moreover, climate action plans must integrate cultural intelligence, not as aesthetic addition, but as a diagnostic tool to understand how communities perceive risk and change. The next generation of climate solutions must unite deep tech with deep humanity, for climate innovation which is, as much about behavior and belief as it is, about code and carbon.

为应对这一挑战，我们必须采用综合性的规划模式，将科学技术创新与生态目标直接联结起来。

To meet this challenge, we must adopt integrated planning models that link scientific and technological innovation directly with ecological goals.

可持续智慧城市需要通过数字技术将治理、交通、能源、水资源、农业、公共服务与居民生活等多个系统整合联动。图源：嘉宾演讲ppt

在人工智能、生物技术、材料科学和数字基础设施等领域进步的推动下，绿色技术能够对生态系统进行监测、减少污染并优化资源配置。归根结底，具备气候韧性的城市是实现可持续未来的重要基石。

Green technologies, powered by advances in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, materials science, and digital infrastructure, can monitor ecosystems, reduce pollution, and optimize resources. Ultimately, climate-resilient cities are the foundation of a sustainable future.

但我们也应当清醒地认识到：尽管现代技术可以作为强有力的工具加以运用，仅凭技术本身，并不足以完成城市的转型。

We should remember,however, that although modern tecnologies could be employed as tools but technology alone will not transform our cities.

治理是关键所在。构建城市韧性，需要形成新的城市治理与领导模式，将地方层面的行动与《巴黎协定》以及可持续发展目标等全球性框架有效衔接起来。联合国可持续发展目标（UNSDGs）所涵盖的一系列应对多重环境风险的政策取向，尤其是目标11（建设包容、安全、有抵御灾害能力和可持续的到城市和人类住区）与目标13（采取紧急行动应对气候变化及其影响），为通向可持续未来提供了一个重要的全球框架。

Governance is central. Building resilience requires new forms of urban leadership that connect local action to global frameworks such as the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Wide range of policies that respond to multiple environmental risks shows the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UNSDGs)—specifically Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and Goal 13 (Climate Action) could provide a global framework for a sustainable future.

联合国17个可持续发展目标。图源：路透社

政府、公民社会、学术界与私营部门之间的伙伴关系至关重要，唯有如此，才能确保气候应对措施既行之有效，又公平正义。

Partnerships among governments, civil society, academia, and the private sector are essential to ensure that climate responses are both effective and just.

韧性并非终点，而是一条持续前行的路径——是在不断变化的星球上，持续学习以不同方式生活的过程。这意味着，要将科学知识与城市治理和规划有效对接，把全球性框架转化为地方层面的行动重点，并确保韧性战略得到资金支持、持续评估，同时能够跨越国界共享经验与成果。

Resilience is not an endpoint but a pathway: a continuous process of learning to live differently on a changing planet. This means aligning scientific knowledge with municipal planning, translating global frameworks into local priorities, and ensuring that resilience strategies are financed, monitored, and shared across borders.

结语

Conclusion

当代城市实践所呈现出的经验十分明确：未来的城市不仅可以，而且必须被设计为兼具智能性、包容性，并与自然系统相协调的整体。韧性不应被理解为面对冲击时的被动承受，而应被视为一个持续适应、不断演化的过程。

The lesson emerging from contemporary urban practice is unambiguous: future cities can and must be designed to be intelligent, inclusive, and attuned to natural systems. Resilience should not be understood as mere endurance in the face of disruption, but as a process of continuous adaptation and evolution.

在气候变化语境下，区域创新的意义已超越经济增长本身，应被重新定位为生态治理的关键机制，通过协同调动科学、技术与治理能力，在保障地球系统稳定的同时推动人类福祉的提升。

In the context of climate change, regional innovation must therefore be conceived not only as a driver of economic growth, but as a central mechanism of ecological stewardship, one in which science, technology, and governance are mobilized to sustain planetary systems while advancing human well-being.

决定城市未来的，不是对气候风险的被动预测，而是对适应性解决方案的主动试验与制度化落实。正是在这一过程中，气候韧性的城市得以成形——它们既智能、包容，又尊重并顺应自然系统，不是消耗地球，而是有意识地与地球共生。

The future of cities will not be shaped by those who merely seek to predict climate risks, but by those who actively prototype adaptive solutions and embed them within urban institutions. Climate-resilient cities can thus be designed as intelligent, inclusive, and attuned to natural systems: cities that do not simply occupy the Earth, but consciously coexist with it.

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