11.20全球发展工作坊 | 新兴市场韧性：运气使然还是良策之功？

Emerging markets have shown remarkable resilience to risk-off shocks in recent years. While favorable external conditions—good luck—contributed to this resilience, improvements in policy frameworks—good policies—played a critical role in bolstering the capacity of emerging markets to withstand risk-off shocks. Evidence suggests that monetary policy implementation and credibility have improved, with central banks becoming less sensitive to fiscal pressures and relying less on foreign exchange interventions. Central banks also hold sway over domestic borrowing conditions, although spillovers from US monetary policy remain influential. On the fiscal side, countercyclicality and responsiveness to sustainability concerns have increased, though borrowing costs remain elevated in high-debt environments. Looking ahead, emerging markets with strong monetary, macroprudential, and fiscal frameworks are better positioned to navigate risk-off shocks because they benefit from easier policy trade-offs and face a lower risk and severity of capital flow reversals. In contrast, countries with weaker frameworks should avoid delaying monetary tightening when price pressures emerge, as doing so typically results in de-anchoring of inflation expectations and larger output losses. Foreign exchange interventions provide temporary relief, but they are costly. Stronger policy frameworks lessen both reliance on—and the need for—such measures. Given uneven cross-country progress and the erosion of fiscal buffers in some cases, continued efforts to strengthen policy frameworks, safeguard central bank independence, and rebuild fiscal space remain essential, as the external environment could deteriorate rapidly.

Topic: Emerging Market Resilience: Good Luck or Good Policies?

Date: November 20, 2025 (Thursday)

Time:18:30-20:30 (Beijing Time)

Language:English

Venue:Classroom 131, Chengze Garden, Peking University

本期主题：新兴市场韧性：运气使然还是良策之功？

日期：2025年11月20日 星期四

时间：18:30 - 20:30 （北京时间）

语言：英语

地点:北京大学承泽园131教室

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关于全球发展工作坊

Development is a common goal around the globe, diverse in practices and beliefs about appropriate philosophies and policy choice. Studies of development – defined here as progress in wellbeing measured in economic, societal and ecological terms – are interdisciplinary by nature and require continued exchange of experiences and insights from around the world.

发展是全世界的共同目标，它意味着通过适当的理念与政策选择，丰富实践和信仰的多样性。对于发展的研究——这里定义为以经济、社会和生态术语衡量的福祉进步——本质上是跨学科的研究，同时这种研究需要不断与世界各地的经验和观点进行交流碰撞。

The Global Development Workshop offers a platform for speakers to share their insights from practice and research finding without prejudice to a particular theoretical conviction. Each workshop features a particular theme but together they help to foster an epistemic community between China and the rest of the world.

全球发展工作坊为演讲者们提供了一个平台，让他们能够在没有特定理论信念的偏见之下，分享从实践和研究发现中得出的观点。每期工作坊都设有一个特定主题，把这些主题放在一起，能帮助中国与世界其他地方之间建立一个认知共同体。