札记 | 美联储近况

今日MEME图：英伟达财报是新的FOMC

近期美股市场的火热由Mag 7主导，也因此昨天市场最为关注的焦点是英伟达的财报，而非当天公布的美联储议息会议纪要，交易者对1月CPI和PPI数据的超预期很快抛之脑后。

距离美联储的下一次议息会议还有一个月的时间，市场对于利率路径、QT Taper以及潜在金融稳定风险（比如CRE）的问题建立了一定的认知，今天的札记就简单和大家一起回顾一下过去几天我在看的联储笔记和文件。

纪要

先来看昨天公布的纪要，我们重点关注有时滞但此前未披露的官员经济/政策讨论的一些细节。

有关未来的利率路径

In discussing the policy outlook, participants judged that the policy ratewas likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. They pointed to thedecline in inflationseen during 2023 and togrowing signs of demand and supply coming into better balancein product and labor markets as informing that view. Participants generally noted that they did not expect it would be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until they had gainedgreater confidencethat inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent. Many participants remarked that the Committee's past policy actions and ongoing improvements in supply conditions were working together to move supply and demand into better balance. Participants noted that the future path of the policy rate would depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Several participants emphasized the importance of continuing tocommunicate clearly about the Committee's data-dependent approach.

这一段对未来政策展望的论述并没有超出此前会议声明和发布会上的表态，一方面向市场表达紧缩周期可能触顶，另一方面对通胀进程和供需状况的平衡改善感到满意，同时对称地表达在获得“更强的信心”的以前不太可能降低利率，这里“更强的信心”是非常典型的联储式含糊“wording”。

我们此处补充一段纪要中有关经济展望的文字：

As an upside risk to both inflation and economic activity, participants noted thatmomentum in aggregate demand may be stronger than currently assessed, especially in light of surprisingly resilient consumer spending last year. Furthermore, several participants mentioned the risk thatfinancial conditions were or could become less restrictive than appropriate, which couldadd undue momentum to aggregate demand and cause progress on inflation to stall. Participants also noted some other sources of upside risks to inflation, including possibledisruptions to supply chains from geopolitical developments, a potential rebound in core goods prices as the effects of supply-side improvements dissipate, or the possibility that wage growth remains elevated.

在利率触顶以后联储的行动方式转向了“Risk-Management”，即风险管理。你可以很明显地感受到近期的数据（比如1月的CPI和非农）所指向的是通胀的二次上行和需求保持强劲的风险，因此虽然纪要中你可以感受到官员对过度紧缩导致经济下行风险的担忧，可这一切在现实数据面前都显得有些苍白。

再来看市场比较关注的QT Taper。

Participants judged thatliquidity in the financial system remained more than ampleand discussed the importance of considering liquidity conditions as the Federal Reserve's balance sheet continues to normalize. While participants noted thatthey were not seeing any signs of liquidity pressures at banks, several participants noted that, as a matter of prudent contingency planning,banks should continue to improve their readiness to use the Federal Reserve's discount window, and that the Federal Reserve should continue to improve the operational efficiency of the window.

这一段就说了三点：

第一，准备金目前还是很ample（充足）的，ample这个词也是一个联储修辞里的特殊“wording”，对应的是“abundant”（充裕），现在more than ample，言下之意就是银行不缺钱。

第二，目前无法在货币市场中看到银行的流动性压力，由于2019年时出现过钱荒，故笔者认为联储很难再次犯下同样的错误。

第三，联储官员认为贴现窗口（当然也包括SRF）这类流动性工具可以作为安全垫发挥作用。

最近市场开始高度关注缩表减速的原因只是因为ONRRP工具里的流动性一直在锐减，同时美国新财年一季度的赤字高于预期，故而引发了一部分人对流动性的“未雨绸缪”，但联储看起来并不担心。

Some participants remarked that, given the uncertainty surrounding estimates of the ample level of reserves,slowing the pace of runoff could help smooth the transition to that level of reserves or could allow the Committee to continue balance sheet runoff for longer. In addition, a few participants noted that the process of balance sheet runoff could continue for some time even after the Committee begins to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate.

纪要中明确表示3月的会议会对QT Taper做深度评估，且从联储官员的考量来看，削减QT的规模反而可以让QT持续更久，哪怕联储开始降息，只要准备金还是“ample”的，那么缩表还是可以持续下去。

综上，这份纪要是一份非常典型的“风险管理”主导的纪要，对于新公布的经济数据而言，它读起来是中性的；但对于押注降息的投机者而言，它或许有一些鹰派。

联储研究笔记回顾本轮紧缩周期

上周，美联储理事Waller作为主笔之一回顾了2021-2022年加息的经验教训。

令笔者感到有些感慨的是，身处历史中和回头看历史的感受确实有所不同。在经历联储本轮加息周期的时候，我个人的感觉是联储行动过慢，应该在2022年1月就启动加息，并且首次加息就应该是50bp而非25bp。但事后看，实际上作为行政部门能在半年时间内完成认错（临时性通胀错判）到终结宽松并快速加息和超预期启动缩表实际上已经做得很快了。只是当你身处历史中的时候你可能会觉得很“慢”。

图：本轮紧缩时间线

政昊的阅读笔记

作为本轮加息周期的风向标，Waller的观点值得我们注意：

1. Waller批判了FOMC在21年过于具有限制性的前瞻指引，认为当时应该更快地收紧政策。

2. 更有意思的是，Waller还援引泰勒规则作为衡量政策调整潜在速度和幅度的实用基准。在2021年底，泰勒规则和其各类变体均表明，政策利率应远高于零，并接近其中性水平。

几点思考：

1. 尽管1月份通胀十分强劲（当然有季节性因素），导致一些媒体认为美联储下一步甚至不是降息而是加息，但由于目前大多数泰勒规则都表明合适的政策利率应该更低一些（图），因此这可能意味着Waller仍然支持一个相对渐进的宽松周期。

2. 从长远看，随着今年又将重启五年一度的货币政策策略审查（上次是2019年），疫情后加息周期的教训必将成为核心议题。而Waller这篇文章所透露出的讯息是，未来可能不会有过于限制性的前瞻指引（话不说死）；而更重视泰勒规则的指导意见，以及通胀从过去十年的蛰伏状态中复苏，也都意味着货币政策很可能变得更加灵活。

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