期刊GPRI 2026年51卷第3期目录与摘要｜保险学术前沿

声明：本系列文章基于原期刊目录和摘要内容整理而得，仅限于读者交流学习。如有侵权，请联系删除。

期刊介绍：

“Geneva Papers on Risk & Insurance- Issues and Practice”创刊于1976年，是日内瓦协会主办的一本国际学术期刊，聚焦保险经济学的前沿热点问题，旨在为保险学术界和业界专业人士之间的交流提供桥梁，提升保险业的专业知识。该刊为季刊，每年4期，每期发表文章10篇左右，2024年影响因子为2。

本期看点：

●在更广阔的背景下理解保险的作用，就必须超越将保险仅视为风险事件发生后进行损失补偿的简单机制的狭隘视角。保险还可以塑造激励、影响行为、促进机会、改善福祉，并增强社会韧性。

●墨西哥全民健康保险扩展后未发现保险扩展引发事前道德风险的证据，保险反而促进了部分人群的健康行为改善。

●韩国的私人健康保险持有通过缓解背景风险，显著促进了家庭参与风险性金融市场，这一效应在劳动年龄人群中同样显著，表明保险不仅是风险保护工具，更是赋能财务决策的机制。

●中国台湾地区癌症保险市场仅终身型保单中存在显著的逆向选择证据（保额与索赔概率正相关且首年索赔率更高），而定期型保单未发现明显信息不对称，表明不同产品设计下的信息摩擦存在结构性差异。

●保险业发展显著提升了撒哈拉以南非洲居民的幸福感，其中非寿险效应强于寿险，且这一关系受政治制度、收入水平和文化因素的调节，政策制定者应优先推动寿险发展以增进民生福祉。

●英国公共卫生服务长期依赖现收现付制，面临显著的财务失衡和代际失衡，传统盈余管理视角无法有效揭示其结构性风险；应用财务可持续性框架评估代际公平性，能更好地向利益相关者传递组织长期维持服务能力的约束信息。

●美国退休人员的资产消耗模式与生命周期模型预测不符，许多退休人员晚年仍持有大量财富；金融素养是减缓资产消耗、提高资产留存和降低债务的关键因素。

※ 本期目录

●保险与生命历程中的健康（专刊引言）

●事前道德风险？墨西哥的超重与健康保险扩展

●赋能投资组合：韩国的健康保险持有与金融风险承担

●癌症保险中的信息不对称分析：来自台湾地区定期型与终身型保单的证据

●英国公共卫生部门的财务可持续性

●退休资产消耗：模式、预测因素与金融素养的作用

Insurance and health across the life course

保险与生命历程中的健康（专刊引言）

作者

Joan Costa-Font（英国伦敦政治经济学院）， Christophe Courbage（瑞士日内瓦工商管理学院），Nilesh Raut（英国伦敦政治经济学院）

摘要：个体的生命轨迹暴露于一系列广泛且相互依存的风险之中，这些风险在整个生命历程中不断累积并相互作用，包括健康冲击、收入不确定性、财务脆弱性、长寿风险以及晚年照护需求。这些风险随着经济、社会和制度环境的变化而演变，而后者又塑造着个体的选择（世界卫生组织，2025）。生命早期做出的决策，例如在疾病预防、医疗服务利用、储蓄行为或风险承担方面的投入，可通过影响人力资本积累以及个体随时间的风险暴露模式，对健康和财务结果产生持久影响。

成年期观察到的许多不良健康状况源于生命早期的境遇，这凸显了时间节点和累积暴露在决定晚年结果中的重要性。与此同时，人口老龄化以及以寿命延长和慢性病负担加重为特征的流行病学模式转变，正给健康与社会保障体系带来日益沉重的压力，要求其在筹资、组织和服务递送方面进行调整。要在这一更广阔的背景下理解保险的作用，就必须超越将保险仅视为风险事件发生后进行损失补偿的简单机制的狭隘视角。保险还可以塑造激励、影响行为、促进机会、改善福祉，并增强社会韧性。

本期《日内瓦风险与保险论文》专刊探讨了保险与健康在整个人生历程中的复杂互动关系。综合来看，本期专刊中的论文提供了对保险与健康在生命历程中关系的深入理解。它们表明，保险远不止是一种在风险事件发生后被动启动的融资机制。它塑造预防行为的激励，影响更广泛的经济行为，决定风险如何被有效汇集和管理，促进主观幸福感，并与公共机构的可持续性相互作用。其政策含义相应地十分广泛。设计有效的保险体系需要在保障与激励之间取得平衡，在存在信息摩擦的情况下确保市场可持续性，加强金融素养和个人能力，并维护集体医疗保障安排的长期可行性。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41288-026-00377-4

Ex-ante moral hazard? Overweight and health insurance expansion in Mexico

事前道德风险？墨西哥的超重与健康保险扩展

作者

Joan Costa-Font（英国伦敦政治经济学院）， Mario Gyori（英国伦敦政治经济学院），Belen Saenz-de-Miera（墨西哥南下加利福尼亚自治大学）

摘要：Extending health insurance coverage to previously uninsured populations can improve access to preventive services by relaxing financial barriers to health information and care, including those related to weight management. However, in the presence of ex-ante moral hazard, insurance coverage may weaken incentives for preventive effort, potentially increasing unhealthy behaviours. This paper examines this phenomenon using evidence from the introduction of a universal public insurance program, namely Mexico’s Seguro Popular (SP), in the 2000s. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in the rollout of SP across municipalities generated by differential implementation speeds. We find no evidence that the rollout of SP modified individuals’ body mass index (BMI) or obesity status. Further, heterogeneity analysis suggests that SP exposure leads to a significant reduction in BMI among individuals who were already overweight at baseline, and a 2 percentage point decline in smoking prevalence, consistent with the hypothesis that SP increased access to preventative health information. These results suggest no evidence of ex-ante moral hazard in weight-related health behaviours after the expansion of universal insurance.

将健康保险覆盖范围扩展至先前未参保人群，可以通过消除获取健康信息和医疗服务（包括与体重管理相关的服务）的财务障碍，改善预防性服务的可及性。然而，在存在事前道德风险的情况下，保险保障可能会削弱预防性努力的激励，从而可能增加不健康行为。本文利用21世纪墨西哥推出全民公共保险计划——即大众医疗保险（Seguro Popular，简称SP）的经验证据，考察了这一现象。我们利用SP在各城市推广速度不同所产生的合理外生变异进行分析。研究未发现SP的推广改变了个体身体质量指数（BMI）或肥胖状态的证据。进一步的异质性分析表明，接触SP导致基线时已超重的个体的BMI显著下降，并使吸烟率下降2个百分点，这与SP增加了预防性健康信息可及性的假设一致。这些结果表明，在全民保险扩展之后，未发现体重相关健康行为中存在事前道德风险的证据。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41288-026-00384-5

Empowering portfolios: health insurance ownership and financial risk taking in South Korea

赋能投资组合：韩国的健康保险持有与金融风险承担

作者

Hyejeong Mun（韩国首尔国立大学），Sojung Carol Park（韩国首尔国立大学）

摘要：This study examines how private health insurance (PHI) influences household participation in risky asset markets. Using nationally representative survey data from Korea, we find that households with PHI are more likely to hold risky assets than otherwise similar households without coverage, even after controlling for financial literacy, risk aversion, and other socioeconomic characteristics. Distinguishing between indemnity and lump-sum products, we find that each is significantly associated with greater participation in risky assets, with the largest effect observed among households holding both types of coverage. Focusing on working-age adults, we show that the insurance-portfolio link extends beyond retirees to economically active populations, for whom early investment decisions can have long-term consequences. Overall, our findings suggest that PHI not only mitigates downside financial risks but also enables opportunity-enhancing behavior, pointing to the broader role of insurance in shaping financial decisions.

本研究考察了私人健康保险（PHI）如何影响家庭在风险性资产市场中的参与。利用韩国具有全国代表性的调查数据，我们发现，即使控制了金融素养、风险厌恶程度和其他社会经济特征，持有私人健康保险的家庭也比其他特征相似但未参保的家庭更可能持有风险性资产。在区分补偿型和定额给付型产品后，我们发现每种产品类型均与更高的风险性资产参与率显著相关，其中同时持有两种类型保险的家庭效应最大。聚焦于劳动年龄成年人，我们表明保险与投资组合之间的关联不仅限于退休人群，同样适用于经济活动人口——对其而言，早期的投资决策可能产生长期后果。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，私人健康保险不仅缓解了下行财务风险，还促进了提升机会的行为，揭示了保险在塑造财务决策中的更广泛作用。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41288-026-00380-9

An analysis of asymmetric information in cancer insurance: evidence from term and whole-life policies in Taiwan

癌症保险中的信息不对称分析：来自台湾地区定期型与终身型保单的证据

作者

Chu-Shiu Li（中国台湾中信金融管理学院）， Sheng-Chang Peng（中国台湾逢甲大学）

摘要：This study examines asymmetric information in Taiwan’s life cancer insurance market using a large-scale dataset of newly purchased policies from 2012 to 2016. Our analysis reveals evidence of asymmetric information in whole-life cancer insurance, where higher coverage is positively associated with claim probability, consistent with adverse selection. In contrast, for term cancer insurance, there is a negative but statistically insignificant association between coverage and claims. High-coverage whole-life policies also exhibit a significantly higher likelihood of first-year claims, a pattern not observed for term policies. While coverage is positively associated with claim amounts for both contract types, quantile regressions reveal distinct patterns: coefficients increase across quantiles for term policies but remain relatively uniform for whole-life policies. These results suggest that policyholders selecting whole-life versus term cancer insurance differ systematically in underlying risk, with important implications for pricing, underwriting, and risk management in health-related insurance markets.

本研究利用2012年至2016年新购保单的大规模数据集，检验了台湾地区癌症保险市场中的信息不对称问题。分析揭示了终身型癌症保险中存在信息不对称的证据，其中较高的保额与索赔概率呈正相关，这与逆向选择一致。相比之下，定期型癌症保险的保额与索赔之间呈负相关，但统计上不显著。高保额的终身型保单还表现出显著更高的首年索赔可能性，而定期型保单中未观察到这一模式。虽然两种合同类型的保额均与索赔金额正相关，但分位数回归揭示了不同的模式：定期型保单的系数随分位数增加而上升，而终身型保单的系数则保持相对均匀。这些结果表明，选择终身型与定期型癌症保险的投保人在潜在风险上存在系统性差异，这对健康相关保险市场的定价、核保和风险管理具有重要启示。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41288-026-00378-3

Increasing people’s subjective well-being in sub-Saharan Africa: does the developed insurance sector matter?

提升撒哈拉以南非洲居民的主观幸福感：保险业的发展重要吗？

作者

Désiré Avom（喀麦隆雅温得第二大学），Cédric Meytang（法国中部非洲国家银行），Franck Mondesir Tsassa Mbouayila（刚果马里安·恩古瓦比大学），Bruno Emmanuel Ongo Nkoa（喀麦隆雅温得第二大学）

摘要：Developing a strategy to increase happiness is one of the main objectives of a prosperous economy. Thus, the aim of this article is to assess the effect of insurance on the quality of life of populations south of the Sahara. To achieve this, insurance penetration rates (life and non-life) are used as a measure of the level of insurance development, while the scale of life index captures subjective well-being as a proxy. Estimates of the basic model are based on a sample of 31 sub-Saharan African countries observed over the period 2006–2022, using a Driscoll–Kraay regression. The results show that the development of insurance (life and non-life) increases the well-being of Africans. However, this effect differs according to political system and income level. In addition, non-life insurance has a stronger impact on well-being than life insurance. The robustness of the Tobit and Quantile Regressions confirms the results of the basic model. Culture has also been identified as a channel through which insurance can have a greater impact on the well-being of people in sub-Saharan Africa. Policies aimed at promoting the well-being of Africans should consider promoting investment in the development of insurance, particularly life insurance.

制定提升幸福感的战略是繁荣经济体的主要目标之一。因此，本文旨在评估保险对撒哈拉以南非洲地区人口生活质量的影响。为此，采用保险深度（寿险和非寿险）作为衡量保险发展水平的指标，同时使用生活指数规模作为主观幸福感的代理变量。基础模型的估计基于2006—2022年间31个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的样本，采用Driscoll-Kraay回归方法。结果表明，保险业（寿险和非寿险）的发展提升了非洲居民的幸福感。然而，这一效应因政治制度和收入水平的不同而存在差异。此外，非寿险对幸福感的影响强于寿险。Tobit回归和分位数回归的稳健性检验证实了基础模型的结果。文化也被确定为保险能够对撒哈拉以南非洲居民幸福感产生更大影响的一个渠道。旨在促进非洲居民幸福感的政策应考虑推动保险业发展的投资，特别是寿险。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41288-025-00366-z

Financial sustainability of the UK public health sector

英国公共卫生部门的财务可持续性

作者

Paul John Marcel Klumpes（丹麦奥尔堡大学商学院）

摘要：Long-term societal and demographic shifts are placing significant strains on the ability of public and private organisations that rely on pay-as-you-go financing and are influencing their resource allocation decisions. However, the financial sustainability of what they decide is often hidden or obscured by a focus on earnings management. This is relevant to equity holders but not to the much broader set of societal stakeholders who rely on the services that these organisations provide. This paper applies the financial sustainability approach developed by Gokhale and Smetters (Fiscal and generational imbalances: new budget measures for new budget priorities, AEI Press, Washington, 2003, Fiscal and generational imbalances: an update, Tax, 2006) to evaluate the financial management implications of these long-term trends on the delivery of UK public health services by using a case study of an English public healthcare trust. It is argued that reporting the financial and intergenerational imbalances inherent to the long-term financial sustainability of these organisations better informs their stakeholders about their ability to meet long-term financial sustainability constraints that critically affect their ability to maintain current levels of service delivery.

长期的社会和人口结构变化正对依赖现收现付制融资的公共和私人组织的能力造成巨大压力，并影响着它们的资源配置决策。然而，其决策的财务可持续性往往被对盈余管理的关注所掩盖或模糊。这对股权持有者而言或许相关，但却忽视了更为广泛的社会利益相关者群体——那些依赖这些组织所提供服务的群体。本文应用Gokhale和Smetters（2003，2006）开发的财务可持续性方法，以一家英国公立医疗信托机构为案例，评估这些长期趋势对英国公共卫生服务供给的财务管理影响。本文认为，报告这些组织长期财务可持续性中所固有的财务失衡和代际失衡，能够更好地向其利益相关者传达其满足长期财务可持续性约束的能力，而这些约束直接关乎其维持当前服务水平的能力。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41288-025-00372-1

Asset decumulation in retirement: patterns, predictors, and the role of financial literacy

退休资产消耗：模式、预测因素与金融素养的作用

作者

Hessam Bavafa（美国威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校），Anita Mukherjee（美国威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校），Tyler Q. Welch（美国天普大学）

摘要：We study how U.S. retirees draw down non-housing financial assets using longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (1995–2020), tracing decumulation paths for those who survive a full 12 years after reaching age 65. While lifecycle models predict gradual decumulation to support consumption, we find that many retirees retain substantial wealth into later life. Individual retirement account (IRA) balances decline steadily, consistent with required minimum distribution rules. Stock assets are decumulated more quickly, especially among middle-wealth households. In contrast, checking and savings balances remain stable. We then ask: do individual capabilities across the wealth distribution drive this behavior? We show that financial literacy is strongly associated with slower decumulation, higher asset levels, and reduced debt. These patterns suggest that asset type, institutional rules (like distributions from IRAs), and individual capabilities (like financial literacy) jointly shape financial outcomes in retirement. We also test for a number of economic, demographic, and subjective drivers of decumulation.

我们利用美国健康与退休研究（Health and Retirement Study，1995—2020年）的纵向数据，研究了美国退休人员如何消耗非住房金融资产，追踪了那些在年满65岁后存活满12年的个体的资产消耗路径。虽然生命周期模型预测资产会逐步消耗以支持消费，但我们发现许多退休人员在进入晚年很长时间后仍持有大量财富。个人退休账户（IRA）余额稳步下降，这与最低分配规则的要求一致。股票资产消耗更快，尤其是在中等财富家庭中。相比之下，支票账户和储蓄账户余额保持稳定。随后我们追问：财富分布中的个体能力是否驱动了这种行为？我们表明，金融素养与较慢的资产消耗、更高的资产水平和更低的债务密切相关。这些模式表明，资产类型、制度规则（如IRA的分配要求）和个体能力（如金融素养）共同塑造了退休后的财务结果。我们还检验了资产消耗的一系列经济、人口和主观驱动因素。

原文链接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41288-026-00379-2