美伊谈判可能无法达成永久性的大型和平协议.. 260411

注：本文截取自Sean原发于北京时间4月10日晚的X推文及星球内容，部分内容已删减，更多内容可在文末获取。

The U.S. and Iran are now negotiating the negotiations as the world watches for a resolution this weekend. I do not think the U.S. and Iran can reach a permanent peace agreement, and the market is underpricing the repercussions.

美国和伊朗目前正在就谈判本身进行交涉，全世界都在关注本周末能否达成决议。我认为美国和伊朗无法达成永久性的大型和平协议，而市场目前对由此产生的连锁反应定价不足。

On Trump's side, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the top priority, even more urgent in the short term than making sure Iran does not get nukes. But as long as the current Iranian government remains in place, that is not possible. This is not about insurers refusing to insure tankers or navies lacking the capacity to escort them. It is about shipping companies knowing they could lose the ship if they sail, while barrels sitting idle on ships in the Gulf could still earn decent money. As long as the current Iranian leadership remains, the threat remains, and normal shipping will not resume the way the U.S. wants.

就特朗普而言，重新开放霍尔木兹海峡是当务之急，短期来看，这甚至比确保伊朗不获取核武器更为迫切。但只要现任伊朗政府继续掌权，这就无法实现。这不仅仅是因为保险公司拒绝为油轮承保，或是海军缺乏护航能力。关键在于，航运公司深知一旦开航就有可能损失船只，而停泊在海湾地区的闲置油轮依然能够赚取可观的利润。只要现今的伊朗领导层依然在位，威胁就始终存在，正常的航运也无法按照美国所期望的方式恢复。

On Iran's side, the past 36 years of the regime have been built on portraying the U.S. as the enemy, not too dissimilar to North Korea. Now they control the Strait and can charge tolls to offset some of the pain the West has imposed on them through decades of sanctions. It is in both the Iranian government's and the Iranian people's interest to keep the Strait in their hands. It is a better weapon than nukes because tanker passage can be traded for diplomatic gains, restored relations, and the removal of decades-long sanctions. Oil is still the single most wanted commodity in the world, and not many countries produce more than they consume.

就伊朗而言，过去36年来，该政权的根基一直建立在将美国描绘成敌人的基础之上，这与朝鲜的情况颇为相似。如今他们控制了海峡，并可通过收取通行费来抵消西方数十年来实施制裁所造成的部分创伤。将海峡控制权掌握在自己手中，符合伊朗政府及伊朗人民的双重利益。这是一个比核武器更好的筹码，因为油轮的通行权可以被用来交换外交利益、恢复双边关系以及解除长达数十年的制裁。石油依然是全球最受追捧的单一商品，且产大于销的国家屈指可数。

That is why I think the U.S. has already lost this war. Iran can choke the U.S. stock market, Treasury yields, inflation, and Trump's approval ratings without even playing all of its cards: several Iran-backed groups have either held back or entered only in a limited way so far. These are the only four things Trump truly cares about. If he keeps fighting Iran, he will lose control of all four. And lucky for Iran, all four are heavily influenced by oil prices. That is why Trump is so desperate to pull out. He will keep portraying this as a huge win even though the U.S. has in fact lost the war.

这就是为什么我认为美国已经输掉了这场战争。伊朗甚至不需要打出所有底牌，就能扼住美国股市、美债收益率、通胀以及特朗普支持率的咽喉：迄今为止，几个受伊朗支持的组织要么按兵不动，要么只是进行了有限的介入。这四点正是特朗普真正关心的全部。如果他继续与伊朗交战，他将失去对这四者的控制。而对伊朗有利的是，这四者都深受油价影响。这就是特朗普如此迫切想要抽身的原因。他会继续将此粉饰为一场巨大胜利，尽管事实上美国已经输掉了这场战争。

I see Trump with only two options.

我认为特朗普目前只有两个选择。

1. Leave and declare victory.

撤退并宣布胜利。

He can try to tweet the market higher while Iran continues to hold de facto control of the Strait. Trump may feel pressured to go this route as the midterms approach. This would create short-term upside risk for equities, and we would likely see a sharp drop in crude futures as the market reprices stabilization. But by doing so, the U.S. hands Iran the button to push inflation higher whenever it wants. It also tells the world that the U.S. picked a fight with a seemingly much weaker opponent and lost. The U.S. has already lost many allies over the past year because of tariffs alone, and NATO countries have shown little willingness to help Trump in this war. This path means short-term gain and long-term pain. The dollar gets sold, Treasuries get sold, yields spike, and confidence in U.S. power erodes further.

他可以试图通过发推特推高市场，同时任由伊朗继续保持对海峡的实质性控制。随着中期选举临近，特朗普可能会感到有压力要走这条路。这将为股市创造短期的上行风险，并且随着市场对局势企稳进行重新定价，我们可能会看到原油期货急剧下跌。但这样做的话，美国等于把随时推高通胀的按钮交给了伊朗。这也向世界宣告，美国挑起了一场与一个看似弱小得多的对手的战争，并最终落败。过去一年里，单是关税问题就已经让美国失去了许多盟友，而北约国家也几乎没有表现出在这场战争中协助特朗普的意愿。这条路径意味着短期利益与长期痛苦。美元将被抛售，美债将被抛售，收益率将飙升，而外界对美国实力的信心将进一步被侵蚀。

2.Permanently remove the threat.

永久性消除威胁。

That means a ground invasion, a bloodbath, and the removal and replacement of the Iranian leadership. If Trump manages to do this successfully, he saves his presidency and extends the life of U.S. power by reinforcing the idea that America is still militarily formidable. Confidence returns, crude falls, inflation eases, bonds rally, and equities recover.

这意味着地面入侵、一场血战，以及推翻并替换伊朗领导层。如果特朗普能成功做到这一点，他就能挽救他的总统任期，并通过强化“美国在军事上依然强大”的观念来延续美国霸权的寿命。信心将回归，原油下跌，通胀缓解，债券反弹，股市复苏。

But if the U.S. invades and fails to accomplish its goal quickly, the consequences will be devastating. Oil will make new highs, inflation will make new highs, bonds will get crushed, and global risk assets will reprice violently lower. The world could become chaotic within one or two months.

但如果美国发动入侵却未能迅速实现目标，其后果将是毁灭性的。油价将创下新高，通胀将创下新高，债券将遭到无情抛售，全球风险资产将惨烈地向下重估。世界可能会在一两个月内陷入混乱。

Given all this, I think the U.S. will invade Iran, but the invasion will likely turn into a very long war. My base case is that this conflict is far from over, and that the market is still underestimating how hard it will be to get from a temporary ceasefire to a durable settlement. I therefore continue to think crude can move back higher, and that the broader macro path remains much more fragile than the current relief rally implies. I think this rally provides a very attractive setup for shorting equities. The upside is limited because the market has priced in far more peace than war, while the downside risk is even bigger than Trump’s lies. I could be very wrong, but the risk-reward is asymmetric, and it would be a shame not to take this trade.

鉴于上述所有因素，我认为美国会入侵伊朗，但这场入侵很可能演变成一场旷日持久的战争。我的基准情形是，这场冲突远未结束，而市场依然低估了从临时停火走向持久解决方案的难度。因此，我继续认为原油价格将重拾涨势，且更广泛的宏观路径依然比当前释然性反弹所反映的要脆弱得多。我认为这轮反弹为做空股市提供了一个极具吸引力的入场时机。其上行空间有限，因为市场对“和平”的定价已远超对“战争”的定价，而下行风险甚至比特朗普的谎言还要大。我可能会大错特错，但这里的风险收益比是不对称的，如果错过这笔交易，那将是非常遗憾的。

另外补充两则来自深度星球的问答：

1. Q: I have followed you for a long time and understand you are mostly a macro-based trader. So I want to know how you see current market and what strategy at high level you plan to trade. Have you been through a period like this? The market basically has become ignorant to all bad news in my opinion. Vix has dropped to the pre-war level and oil still below 100 today. It's hard to believe if there is no some kind of institutional market manipulation.

我关注您很久了，也知道您主要是一位宏观交易员。所以我想请教您如何看待当前市场，以及在顶层策略上您计划如何布局？您经历过类似当前这样的时期吗？在我看来，市场目前基本上对所有利空消息都已经完全钝化。Vix已经回落至战前水平，而今天油价依然徘徊在100美元下方。很难让人相信这背后没有某种机构级别的市场操纵行为。

Sean:If you mean volatile markets, yes, I've been through countless ones. If you mean constant tweet bombs lifting the market every 15 minutes,no,this is a first for everyone.The market learned Trump's tactics last year: maximum pressure before negotiations to extract as much as possible, and almost every time,he got a deal.But I doubt that is the case this time. The number of troops deployed to the Middle East is still increasing. I don't think he is bringing that many Marines just to accept a truce. I could be wrong, but if I'm right, all the gains from the last two weeks could be wiped out in two days.

如果你指的是高波动的市场，是的，我经历过无数次。但如果你指的是每隔15分钟就有连番的“推特轰炸”来拉升市场，没有，这对所有人来说都是头一遭。市场在去年就已经摸透了特朗普的套路：在谈判前进行极限施压以攫取最大筹码，而且几乎每一次他都能如愿达成协议。但我怀疑这次的情况并非如此。部署在中东的军队数量仍在不断增加。我不认为他调动这么多海军陆战队过去，仅仅是为了接受一纸停战协议。我可能会看错，但如果我对了，过去两周积累的所有涨幅都可能在两天内被悉数抹平。

2.Q: hi,Sean,regarding your ES short position, are you planning to hold it over the weekend or close it before today's market close?

嗨，Sean，关于你的 ES空头仓位，你是打算持仓过周末，还是在今天收盘前平仓？

Sean:Depending on the tape,I may add NQ shorts or partically close the ES short before the weekend. Markets are volatile,and risk management is paramount.It's okay to sit on the sidelines until things becomes clearer. That is ,in my view, holding all cash is perfectly fine. For those who are in the trade,a smaller position size will be easier to manage in this environment.

这要取决于盘面表现，我可能会在周末前加仓做空 NQ，或者部分平仓 ES 的空头。目前市场波动剧烈，风险管理至关重要。在局势明朗之前，选择退居场外观望是完全没问题的。也就是说，在我看来，全仓持有现金是非常好的选择。对于已经在场内交易的人来说，在这种市场环境下，保持较小的仓位规模会更容易管理。

Sean' take:https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

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