SFC Outlook 2026｜Martin Jacques: China’s Opening-Up Shapes the Future of Glo...

By Li Yinong, SFC, 21st Century Business Herald

Editor’s Note:

As the world moves toward 2026, multiple economic cycles and structural shifts are converging. Global growth remains uneven, inflation and monetary policy paths are uncertain, and geopolitical tensions and industrial realignments continue to reshape the international order. At the same time, China enters the starting phase of 15th Five-Year Plan, with implications that extend well beyond its borders.

SFC Outlook 2026: Global Crossroadsbrings together distinguished economists, scholars, investors and political figures to assess the global economy, financial markets, the evolving world order, and China’s development at this critical juncture. Through in-depth conversations and forward-looking perspectives, the series offers a comprehensive outlook on the forces shaping the years ahead.

The global economy is entering a period of profound transition. globalization has slowed, geopolitical conditions remain tense, and protectionism continues to weigh on growth prospects worldwide. Long-standing assumptions about global integration are being tested, even as new economic centers rise.

Martin Jacques, a prominent British scholar and former Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at the University of Cambridge, shared his views in an in-depth interview with SFC reporter. He argued that today’s uncertainties should be understood within a much longer historical process: the relative decline of the West unfolding alongside the historic rise of China and the broader developing world. Since reform and opening-up began in 1978, China has pursued a long-term strategy of integration with the global economy, particularly with the Global South—a trajectory that has become increasingly significant as global trade patterns shift.

According to Jacques, while Globalization is facing headwinds and may even risk reversal, China’s response has been strategic and forward-looking. By reducing its dependence on the U.S. market and deepening economic ties with developing economies, China has strengthened its resilience in a fragmented world. At a time when tariffs and protectionism threaten global growth, Jacques emphasized that China’s economic performance and commitment to openness are not only critical for its own future, but also for global prosperity—especially for the developing world, which now represents the vast majority of the world’s population.

China’s Opening Up Strengthens Its Global Position

SFC Markets and Finance: China’s “15th Five-Year Plan” further highlights high-level opening-up. What’s your take on that?

Martin Jacques: I think the situation today is clearly complex. The two most powerful countries in the world—the U.S. and China—are at the center of it. The U.S. is deliberately trying to restrict trade with China. On the other hand, China has been opening up since 1978, a process that has taken decades. Its relationship with the developing world has always been guided by these principles. Today, China’s trade with the Global South is even more significant than its trade with the West, which now accounts for a declining share of China’s overall trade.

Globalization Has Slowed—But China Stands Resilient

SFC Markets and Finance: Globalization is clearly facing growing challenges. How do you think this will reshape the global economic landscape?

Martin Jacques: Globalization has clearly slowed down.

If you look at the data from the past several years, you can see that there was a long upward trend since the end of the Second World War, reflecting the growth of globalization. Over the last two or three years, however, this trend has come to a halt. Globalization could even go into reverse—it’s possible. This is clearly very important, because globalization has been crucial to the dramatic rise in living standards since the Second World War.

SFC Markets and Finance: So in your view, facing the trend of de-globalization, how well has China been responding?

Martin Jacques: I think China has responded very well. First, in the way it has dealt with the threat from the United States since Trump’s election in 2016, China has clearly prepared for the possibility of this happening again—what is often referred to as “Trump 2.0”—and that is exactly what has occurred.

As a result, China is now in a much stronger position than before. It is far less dependent on the American market, which is extremely important. At the same time, China has been strengthening its trade ties with the developing world. This has now become larger and more important for China than its trade with the West. So, relatively speaking, China is in a much more advantageous position than it was in the past.

SFC Markets and Finance: Although the global economy faces uncertainty, China continues to show confidence in growth and openness. What does this confidence mean for the world?

Martin Jacques: This is extremely important, because we are living through a historical period—or process—in which the West is experiencing a historic decline, while China and the developing world are undergoing a historic rise.

As a result, these countries, which together make up the vast majority of the global population—around 80 percent or so—are experiencing the best development they have ever seen, certainly since the British Industrial Revolution. So this is of profound significance.

China Plays a Key Role in Global Economic Stability

SFC Markets and Finance: In a context of rising tariffs and protectionism, how important is China’s economic performance for sustaining global growth and global prosperity going forward?

Martin Jacques: Since around 2005, China has been the single largest contributor to global economic growth. That has been a public good for the world. As a result, what happens to the Chinese economy matters greatly for the entire world, and especially for the developing world in the current context.

Today, China is facing major challenges, as we can see. The United States has been trying to make things very difficult for China, and tariffs, protectionism, and similar measures could slow global economic growth—or even reverse it. So the stakes are extremely high for global prosperity.

Chief Producer: Zhao Haijian

Supervising Producer: Shi Shi

Editor: Li Yinong

Reporter: Li Yinong

Video Editor: Cai Yutian

Poster Design：Lin Junming

New Media Coordination: Ding Qingyun, Zeng Tingfang, Lai Xi, Huang Daxun

Overseas Operations Supervising Producer: Huang Yanshu

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Produced by: Southern Finance Media Gorp.