观点丨夏璐：Next five years to usher in more hi-tech, green breakt

夏 璐

中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院研究员

Building on the solid achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period, China's economy is entering a critical stage for high-quality development to be guided by the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30).

Over the next five years, China will focus on the goal of rejuvenating the nation through advancing Chinese modernization. Key breakthroughs are expected across multiple dimensions, including technological innovation, green transformation, and the digital economy.

China will accelerate the development of a national strategic technology system, focusing on frontier fields such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing and aerospace exploration. Major scientific and technological projects with strategic, systemic, and forward-looking significance are expected to be launched.

A full-chain coordination mechanism - from basic research to technological breakthroughs, scenario applications, and industrial transformation - will be established. Central government fiscal funding, local pilot platforms, collaboration among state-owned enterprises, private companies, universities, and research institutes, along with venture capital and long-term investment, will help overcome obstacles to turning technological advantages into economic gains.

Guided by its dual carbon goals, China aims to lead a green industrial revolution. During the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period, non-fossil energy is expected to account for about 25 percent of primary energy consumption. Annual growth in new energy storage capacity will remain at a high level, and zero-carbon industries - such as green methanol, green hydrogen, and sustainable aviation fuels - will move from demonstration projects to large-scale applications.

China will improve the digital levels of its economy and society through comprehensive digitalization. Digital development will move from the consumer internet to deeper industrial applications, and 5G/6G integrated networks will expand nationwide, while industrial internet identification systems will cover all major sectors. A foundational system for data as a key economic resource will be fully established.

To address the nation's problem of aging population, policies will focus on the quality of human resource development.

Fertility support will be enhanced through expanded tax deductions, financial subsidies for multi-child families, and parental leave reforms. At the same time, the silver economy will grow. Coordinated home- and community-based care networks, nationwide long-term care insurance, and age-friendly infrastructure upgrades in housing, transportation, and culture-tourism will help create vast market opportunities.

China will further advance high-level opening-up, reduce the negative list for foreign investment, and expand services-sector pilot programs to the northeast and central and western regions. After the Hainan Free Trade Port officially launches its island-wide independent customs operation in December 2025, more opening-up policies are expected to be implemented in key regions such as Hengqin in Zhuhai, and Qianhai in Shenzhen, South China's Guangdong Province. The internationalization of the yuan will advance from a settlement currency in international trade to investment and reserve currency, with the yuan's offshore markets being expanded across multiple locations in the world.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), China achieved notable progress: Technological innovation accelerated, absolute poverty was eliminated, and environmental quality was improved. In the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), the focus will shift to high-quality development: transforming innovation from quantitative accumulation to qualitative leaps, turning green initiatives into organic drivers of growth, and improving the quality of people's lives.

Despite persistent challenges from external "decoupling" and protectionism, and domestic economic pressures, experience shows that such challenges can catalyze reform and external pressure can help drive internal upgrades. By deepening reforms, expanding openness, and adhering to the innovation-driven strategy, China is expected to achieve new breakthroughs in high-quality economic development over the next five years.

文章来源：《GLOBAL TIMES》

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人大国发院是中国人民大学集全校之力重点打造的中国特色新型高校智库，现任理事长为学校党委书记张东刚，现任院长为校长林尚立。2015年入选全国首批“国家高端智库”建设试点单位，并入选全球智库百强，2018年初在“中国大学智库机构百强排行榜”中名列第一。2019年在国家高端智库综合评估中入选第一档次梯队，是唯一入选第一档次梯队的高校智库。

人大国发院积极打造“新平台、大网络，跨学科、重交叉，促创新、高产出”的高端智库平台。围绕经济治理与经济发展、政治治理与法治建设、社会治理与社会创新、公共外交与国际关系四大研究领域，汇聚全校一流学科优质资源，在基础建设、决策咨询、公共外交、理论创新、舆论引导和内部治理等方面取得了显著成效。人大国发院以“中国特色新型高校智库的引领者”为目标，扎根中国大地，坚守国家战略，秉承时代使命，致力于建设成为具有全球影响力的世界一流大学智库。

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