日本暴发疫情

日本国立健康危机管理研究机构21日发布的数据显示，10月6日至12日，日本全国3800多家定点医疗机构共报告流感病例超9000例，每周新增病例数已连续8周增加。

Japan has entered its influenza season significantly earlier this year than usual, with nationwide flu cases rising for eight consecutive weeks, according to data released by the Japan Institute for Health Security on Tuesday.

最新数据显示，2025年第41周（10月6日至12日），日本全国3800多家定点医疗机构总计报告流感病例9073例，平均每家报告2.36例，是上一周的约1.5倍，也是去年同期的2.65倍。

根据日本的标准，平均每家定点医疗机构一周报告流感病例数超过1，就标志着进入流感流行季，如果这个数值超过10，就达到“注意报”（比警报低一级）级别。按这个标准，2025年第41周日本全国47个都道府县已有约三分之二进入流感季。

During the week of Oct 6–12, the country's 3,800 designated medical institutions reported 9,073 flu cases — an average of 2.36 per facility, about 1.5 times higher than the previous week and 2.65 times greater than the same period last year.

Under national standards, the flu season begins when the average number of cases per facility exceeds one. By this measure, about two-thirds of Japan's 47 prefectures had already entered the flu season.

根据日本厚生劳动省的最新数据，受流感扩散影响，截至12日，日本全国共有998所保育园、幼儿园、中小学全校停课或部分年级、班级停课，仅10月6日至12日这一周就有328所教育机构停课或部分停课。

日本厚生劳动省于10月3日宣布全国进入流感季，比2024年提早了5周。

The outbreak has also disrupted schools. As of Oct 12, 998 schools and childcare facilities have partially or fully closed due to flu outbreaks, including 328 closures during the week of Oct 6–12. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare officially declared the start of the flu season on Oct 3, five weeks earlier than last year.

日本今年为何提前进入流感季？

专家认为由多重因素造成。

首先是许多人戴口罩、勤洗手等防感染的意识有所下降。

Experts attribute the early onset to several overlapping factors. First, public vigilance against infections has declined, with fewer people consistently wearing masks or washing hands compared with previous years.

其次是跨国旅行活跃。英国《自然》杂志14日发表的一篇文章引用世界卫生组织官员伊恩·巴尔的话说，日本的流感可能由甲型H3N2毒株引起，这种毒株过去两个月在澳大利亚和新西兰较多。他表示，大量澳大利亚人前往日本，这意味着病毒在南北半球之间传播的机会增多。

Increased international travel may also be contributing. WHO official Ian Barr told Nature that Japan's outbreak is likely linked to the H3N2 strain circulating in Australia and New Zealand, adding that frequent travel between the regions may have boosted transmission.

气候变化可能导致部分人免疫力下降。日本儿科医生塚田佳子接受当地媒体采访时表示，流感流行提前可能和今年夏季的酷暑有关。对人体免疫力有重要作用的维生素D的合成依赖紫外线，天气炎热让人们更愿意待在室内，接受阳光照射不足导致免疫力下降的人增加。

Climate factors could be another contributor. A Japanese pediatrician said the record summer heat likely reduced vitamin D levels, as people stayed indoors to avoid the sun, weakening overall immunity.

此外，有日本专家指出，令日本今年提前进入流感季的可能原因还包括：今年的流感疫苗和目前流行毒株的匹配程度可能偏低；另外，正在流行的甲流理论上症状比较明显，但今年似乎不少人症状很轻，容易被忽视，这可能使病毒更易扩散。

巴尔表示，鉴于南半球国家正进入温暖的季节，削弱了病毒的传播，日本目前的流感不太可能演变成全球大流行。但它很可能从日本传播到附近其他国家，或者传播到与日本有旅行往来的国家。而即将进入冬季的国家更容易暴发流感。

Barr added that while a global outbreak is unlikely, Japan's flu could spread to nearby countries or those with strong travel ties. He cautioned that nations entering winter may face higher flu risks.

来源：新华社 环球网

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