美企CEO：“这次灭绝的不是恐龙，而是……”

5月2日，《华尔街日报》刊文称，美国国际航运经纪公司Flexport创始人兼CEO瑞恩·彼得森（Ryan Petersen）正通过其掌握的大量供应链数据，向外界发出严峻预警：美国对中国商品征收高额关税，可能对美国小企业造成“小行星撞地球”般的灾难。

彼得森指出，高额关税正重创美国小企业，可能导致成千上万家公司倒闭、数百万岗位流失。

他直言：“如果关税政策不改变，这将是一次灭绝级的灾难，就像小行星撞击地球消灭恐龙一样——只不过这次灭绝的，不是恐龙，而是美国一群本来活力满满、健康的小企业。”

Petersen, the founder and CEO of Flexport — a company that helps businesses transport goods from where they are made to where they are sold — warned that if tariffs on Chinese goods continue at this rate, thousands of American companies will fail, and millions of employees will lose their jobs. "If they don't change the tariffs, it's going to be an extinction-level, asteroid-wiping-out-the-dinosaurs kind of event," he said. "Only these aren't dinosaurs. These are dynamic, healthy businesses."

Flexport掌握美国约1%的贸易数据，这让它在分析全球经济动向上具有优势。“我们对目前的情况了解得很清楚，”彼得森说。

而事实是，眼前的局势并不乐观。

Flexport is a sleek tech platform that gives Petersen a window into the entire global economy. His company has visibility into about 1 percent of US trade, he said, which is more than enough data for him to connect dots. "We have a pretty good view of what's happening," he says. And what's happening isn't pretty.

为了应对从中国到美国的海运预订量下降，集装箱运输公司正在缩小船只规模，并取消航次。图源：CFOTO/ZUMA PRESS

美国小企业进退两难

Flexport的客户多达13000家，遍及各个行业，包括电子产品、家具、衣物、玩具、尿布、宠物喂食器等。彼得森尽可能地了解他们的困境，并倾听他们的声音。

“他们真的非常无助，没人替他们发声，”彼得森说，“没人给他们撑腰。”

"It was just very obvious they felt really helpless and that nobody was explaining their point of view," he said. "Nobody had their back."

彼得森直言，目前美国对中国部分商品征收的关税高达145%，对大型企业来说虽然也是负担，但它们通常有足够的资源应对。而对于许多小企业来说，几乎没有任何喘息的空间。彼得森表示，这些企业并没有做错什么，却因为突如其来的高关税遭受了重创。

彼得森指出，眼下美国小企业面临极大不确定性：一方面，无法承受高额的进口关税；另一方面，又难以在短期内将制造转移出中国。

“他们不是不愿转移生产，而是根本转不动。越南等替代产地的工厂压根不接小企业的订单。如果能转，他们早就转了。”他说，“现在情况太乱，他们也不知道该怎么办。”

更棘手的是，眼下市场和政策变化太快，企业根本不知道下一步该怎么走。如果之前没来得及调整供应链，现在也不具备启动调整的条件。“要么太晚，要么太早，”彼得森无奈地表示。

Through no fault of their own, he explains, their business models have broken. They can't afford the latest tariffs on Chinese goods. But Vietnam's factories won't bother with their production jobs, so they also can't move their manufacturing out of China. "If they could," Petersen said, "they would have." Meanwhile, there is too much in flux to figure out what they should do. And if they haven't moved their supply chains already, there's no point in moving them yet. "It's either too late or too early," Petersen said.

“‘小行星撞地球’只是时间问题”

即使是那些早有计划应对关税的公司，也因为关税幅度过大且过于突然而感到措手不及。

彼得森指出，当美国公司向中国下订单时，通常需要约90天才能准备好货物进行运输，这意味着它们根本无法提前将关税的增加计算进成本。这等于是在一个完全不同的政策环境下做出了商业决策，却不得不在另一个政策环境中承担后果。

Even companies that planned for tariffs are scrambling because of how steep they are and how suddenly they were implemented. When American businesses place orders in China, it takes about 90 days before their goods are ready for shipping, Petersen says, which means they couldn't have priced in such crippling tariffs. They were basically punished for decisions they made in a completely different business environment.

为了应对这一变化，美国公司纷纷紧急囤货，抢在关税生效前将货物运出。因此，产品短缺和价格飞涨的影响，可能要几个月后才能显现。

自从关税生效以来，从中国到美国的海运预订量下降了60%，彼得森表示。为应对这一变化，集装箱运输公司正缩小船只规模，并取消航次。这些变化对下游的影响可能还需要一段时间才会显现，但物流行业的行家们通过数据已经能预见未来的趋势。

But since the tariffs took effect, ocean-freight bookings from China to the US have dropped 60 percent, Petersen says. In response, containership operators are shrinking their boats and canceling trips altogether. It takes a while for downstream consequences to flow through the system — but logistics nerds can look at the data on their screens and see into the future.

彼得森警告道，如果关税照这个节奏继续下去，那么“小行星撞地球”级别的灾难就只是时间问题。

不过，根据他的预测，白宫会在危机彻底爆发之前做出让步。在等待特朗普政府下调关税、重新谈判贸易协议的这段时间里，彼得森给他的客户提了个建议——也是他自己正在实践的：在危机时刻，追随头脑冷静的人。

If tariffs continue at this rate, Petersen says, it's only a matter of time before that asteroid hits. He predicts the White House will back down before then. And as he waits for the Trump administration to slash tariffs and negotiate trade deals, Petersen is giving customers one piece of advice that he's trying to follow himself. "In a crisis," he says, "everybody rallies around the calmest person in the room."

编辑：左卓

见习编辑：裴禧盈

来源：华尔街日报

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