李津大局观：金铜比率与10年期国债收益率的经济晴雨表深度解析

文/李津的大局观

ps：1909字

引言

Strictly speaking, gold and copper prices do not have any fundamental relationship to each other. That being said, gold and copper do tend to move in the same direction most of the time. However, when their prices are connected, they produce a marvelous indicator of how the markets and interest rates in particular are doing. More importantly, they are good indicators for what the markets and rates will likely do in the future. It is this directional trend that holds the key to their insight.

严格来说，黄金和铜的价格之间没有根本的联系。话虽如此，黄金和铜的价格往往大多数时间是同向变动的。然而，当它们的价格联系起来时，它们就产生了一个奇妙的指标，可以反映市场和特别是利率的表现。更重要的是，它们是预测市场和利率未来可能走向的良好指标。正是这种方向性趋势，才是它们洞察力的关键所在。

卷一

Gold is considered a safe haven for investors, a warehouse of value. It is generally a useless metal from an industrial perspective with most of its value being shaped by interest rates and inflation expectations. A rising gold price signals either an economy contraction or an increasing fear of a contracting economy. So, during times of economic and geopolitical distress it generally tends to perform well, making it a leading indicator of fear. On the other hand, gold prices tend to fall when the economy is humming along nicely.

黄金被认为是投资者的避风港，是一种价值的仓库。从工业角度来看，它通常是一种无用的金属，其价值主要受利率和通货膨胀预期的影响。黄金价格的上涨通常预示着经济收缩或对经济收缩的担忧增加。因此，在经济和地缘政治紧张时期，黄金通常表现良好，使其成为恐惧的领先指标。另一方面，当经济运行良好时，黄金价格往往会下跌。

卷二

Copper is the exact opposite; it is a key industrial metal that is used almost entirely for industrial consumption, with more than 65% of it going directly into building construction and electronics. It performs strongly when the global economy is firing on all cylinders. This makes it an accurate barometer of global growth. Additionally, the copper market tends to be more volatile and sensitive to price swings.

铜则恰恰相反；它是一种重要的工业金属，几乎完全用于工业消费，超过65%的铜直接用于建筑和电子产品。当全球经济全面运转时，它表现强劲。这使它成为全球增长的准确晴雨表。此外，铜市场往往更加动荡，对价格波动更加敏感。

The yield on 10 Year Canadian government bonds are important because they tend to rise during economic expansion as investors’ inflation expectations rise; and fall when the opposite scenario comes into play. Thus, the copper/gold price ratio should also tend to increase when the economy is expanding or falling based on the state of the world economy.

10年期加拿大政府债券的收益率很重要，因为在经济扩张期间，随着投资者通货膨胀预期的上升，收益率往往会上升；而在相反情况下，收益率则会下降。因此，铜/金价格比率也应该在经济扩张或根据世界经济状况而下降时趋于增加。

卷三

The copper/gold ratio is an important key indicator that gauges global economic health. The copper/gold ratio is calculated by dividing the market price of an ounce copper by the market price of an ounce of gold. Interestingly, the copper/gold ratio is highly correlated (currently, the correlation stands at 0.85) and therefore a powerful coincident indicator for 10 Year Canadian government bond yields. To put this in perspective, the monthly correlation over the past 15 years for Canadian equity to Canadian bonds is -0.02; for Canadian equity to U.S. equity (in C$ terms) is 0.48; and for Canadian equity to International equity (in C$ terms) is 0.59. So, the copper/gold ratio is extremely meaningful indicator.

铜/金比率是一个重要的关键指标，用来衡量全球经济的健康状况。铜/金比率是通过将铜的市场价除以黄金的市场价来计算的。有趣的是，铜/金比率高度相关（目前，相关性为0.85），因此是10年期加拿大政府债券收益率的有力同时指标。为了说明这一点，过去15年加拿大股票与加拿大债券的月度相关性为-0.02；加拿大股票与美国股票（以加元计）的相关性为0.48；加拿大股票与国际股票（以加元计）的相关性为0.59。因此，铜/金比率是一个极其有意义的指标。

卷四

As you can see in the chart above right the 10 Year Canadian government bond yield has exhibited a very similar trend to the copper/gold ratio since 2004. Over the last 5 years in particular this ratio has been meandering within a tight range. However, over the past 6 months the rising copper/gold ratio suggests that demand for copper is increasing, which is boosting prices. The rising demand for this key industrial metal signals that economic activity may be picking up, which would create an inflationary situation.

正如上图所示，自2004年以来，10年期加拿大政府债券收益率与铜/金比率呈现出非常相似的趋势。特别是在过去5年，这个比率一直在一个狭窄的范围内徘徊。然而，在过去6个月里，铜/金比率的上升表明铜的需求正在增加，这正在推高价格。对这种关键工业金属需求的上升表明经济活动可能正在加速，这将创造一个通货膨胀的局面。

Of course, this should imply that bond yields will rise, meaning bonds will fall in value. Sure enough, this is essentially what is happening and even appears to have been accelerating over the past few months. If this pattern holds true, then this will be very positive for the state of the world’s economy.

当然，这应该意味着债券收益率将会上升，意味着债券的价值将会下降。确实，这基本上是正在发生的情况，甚至似乎在过去几个月加速了。如果这种模式持续下去，那么这将对世界经济的状况非常有利。

结束语

This report may contain forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance as actual events and results could differ materially from those expressed or implied. The information in this publication does not constitute investment advice by Provisus Wealth Management Limited and is provided for informational purposes only and therefore is not an offer to buy or sell securities. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. While every effort has been made to ensure the correctness of the numbers and data presented, Provisus Wealth Management does not warrant the accuracy of the data in this publication. This publication is for informational purposes only.

本报告可能包含前瞻性陈述。前瞻性陈述并不保证未来，因为实际事件和结果可能与所表达或暗示的有实质性的差异。仅供学习交流参考。