印度网友问：印度能在各个方面实现对中国的全面超越吗？

近年来，印度逐渐成为全球关注的焦点之一。人们开始探讨印度是否能够超越中国，成为21世纪最具影响力的国家之一。支持者认为印度的人口红利是其能够超越中国的重要原因之一。印度拥有庞大的人口规模，根据统计数据显示，预计到2030年，印度将成为世界上人口最多的国家。这意味着印度将拥有巨大的劳动力资源，为国家的经济发展提供了无限的潜力。在美版知乎Quora上，印度网友提问道：印度能在各个方面实现对中国的全面超越吗？我们看看各国网友的回答。

印度网友巴什莫里的回答

No way. China is an outlier in most aspects of the economy and India is unlikely to catch up in the foreseeable future because -

不可能。中国在经济的大多数方面都甩其他国家一大截，印度在可预见的未来不可能赶上，因为-

1. The gap between the two countries is too wide at present

1.目前两国之间的差距太大

2. The factors that will drive India's future growth (education, innovation, industrialization) have not been fully activated

2.推动印度未来增长的因素（教育、创新、工业化）也没有全面启动

Below I have listed some data points for indicators to illustrate the situation --

下面我列出了一些指标的数据点，以说明情况——

Trade & Industrialization:

贸易与工业化：

• Total exports (2023) : India $419.6 billion, China $3.6 trillion

• 出口总额（2023年）：印度4196亿美元，中国3.6万亿美元

• Apparel: India - $18 billion, China - $175 billion

• 服装：印度-180亿美元，中国-1750亿美元

•footwear: India – $2.5 billion, China – $51 billion

• 鞋类：印度——25亿美元，中国——510亿美元

•electrical and electronics – India - $8 billion, China - $782 billion

• 电气和电子——印度——80亿美元，中国——7820亿美元

• Number of large companies in the Fortune 500 (2022) : India has 7 and China 142

•《财富》500强中的大公司数量（2022年）：印度有7家，中国有142家

Infrastructure & Facilities:

基础设施和基建：

High Speed Rails:

高速铁路：

• India - The first high-speed rail project (Mumbai-Ahmedabad) was launched in 2017 and will be operational by 2022, covering 500 km

• 印度——第一个高铁项目（孟买-艾哈迈达巴德）于2017年启动，将于2022年投入使用，覆盖500公里

• China already has a 25,000-kilometer high-speed rail network that carries twice as many passengers as airlines

• 中国已经拥有25000公里的高铁网络，运送的乘客量是航空公司的两倍

Metro Trains:

地铁列车：

•India – 15 cities with total track length of 370 km

•印度——15个城市，轨道总长895公里

• China - 45 cities with more than 10,000 km of track (Beijing alone has 600 km of subway)

• 中国——45个城市，轨道总长超一万公里公里（仅北京地铁就有600公里）

•Airports: India has 121, China has 256 (2021 data)

•机场：印度有121个，中国有256个（2022年数据）

•World’s Top 1000 hospitals: India has 9, China has 84

• 世界1000强医院：印度有9家，中国有84家

Tourism:

旅游业：

•Foreign Tourist arrivals: India – 10 million, China – 60 million

•外国游客人数：印度1000万，中国6000万

•Tourism revenue: India - $27 billion, China - $114 billion

•旅游收入：印度270亿美元，中国1140亿美元

Education & Innovation:

教育与创新：

•World’s Top 500 universities: India has 8, China has 21

•世界500强大学：印度有8所，中国有21所

Adult literacy: 74% in India (2011 data), expected to reach mid-1980s levels by next census, 99% in China (2010)

•成人识字率：印度74%（2011年数据），预计到下一次人口普查将达到80年代中期水平，中国99%（2010年）

• Number of patents and trademarks: India and China are both in the world's top 10 (2016 data)

•专利和商标数量：印度和中国均跻身世界前十（2016年数据）

•Patents filed by India - 45k, China - 1.3 million

•印度申请专利4.5万件，中国申请专利130万件

• 313,000 trademarks registered in India and 3.7 million registered in China

•印度注册的商标——31.3万个，中国注册了370万个

Rising Income levels:

不断增长的收入水平：

75% of the world's new billionaires are from India and China:

•全球75%的新亿万富翁来自印度和中国：

•Since 2010, India is adding one new billionaire every 33 days

•自2010年以来，印度每33天新增一位亿万富翁

•China is adding one new billionaire every 5 days

•中国每5天新增一位亿万富翁

• India has the third highest number of billionaires in the world, while China has the first:

•印度的亿万富翁数量居世界第三，中国的亿万富翁数量位居世界第一：

•Number of billionaires in India - 131, China – 819

•印度的亿万富翁人数为131人，中国为819人

•Expanding Middle Class:

•扩大中产阶级：

•India - 600 million people, based on the criteria of spending ($2 to $10 per day)

•印度-6亿人，根据支出标准（每天2至10美元）

•Only 24 million people, if based on the criteria of wealth ($13k)

•如果根据财富标准（13000美元），只有2400万人

• China - based on revenue criteria ($9,000 to $34,000), will reach 500 million by 2022

•中国——根据收入标准（9000至34000美元），到2022年将达到5亿

•GDP Per Capita: India – $1.7k, China - $8.1k

•人均GDP：印度-1.7万美元，中国-8.1万美元

Overall Economy:

整体经济：

•Forex reserves: India - $400 billion, China - $3 trillion

•外汇储备：印度-4000亿美元，中国-3万亿美元

•GDP (nominal): India - $3.4 trillion, China - $18 trillion

•GDP（名义）：印度-3.4万亿美元，中国-18万亿美元

•Trend

趋势

印度占中国GDP比重

Key Take-Aways and Summary:

主要收获和总结：

•China's exports of electrical and electronic goods alone ($782 billion) are three times greater than India's total exports ($260 billion)

•中国仅电气和电子产品的出口额（7820亿美元）是印度出口总额（2600亿美元）的三倍

• One Chinese city (Beijing - 600 km) has more than half the length of all the subways in India combined

•中国的外汇储备(3万亿美元)超过了印度的GDP总量(2.5万亿美元)。

•China’s forex reserves ($3 trillion) are more than India’s total GDP ($2.5 trillion)

•中国的外汇储备（3万亿美元）超过了印度的GDP总量（2.5万亿美元）

• China's middle class is not only larger than India's, but also wealthier, making it a more attractive investment destination

• 中国的中产阶级不仅比印度的中产阶级更大，而且更富有，这使其成为更具吸引力的投资目的地

• India's growth story is real, but China's growth story and vision are much bigger. On most economic indicators, India is doing well, but China is doing much better

•印度的增长故事是真实的，但中国的增长故事和愿景要大得多。在大多数经济指标上，印度表现良好，但中国表现要好得多

• India is expected to overtake the UK and France to become the world's fifth largest economy by 2020

•预计在2020年之前，印度将超过英国和法国，成为世界第五大经济体

• India is expected to overtake Germany and Japan to become the world's third largest economy by 2030. But even then (more than $6 trillion), it will be less than a third the size of China's economy ($20 trillion)

•到2030年，印度有望超过德国和日本，成为世界第三大经济体。但即使到那时（6万亿美元以上），也不到中国经济规模（20万亿美元）的三分之一

Civilized people should always believe in healthy competition, rather than aiming too high and imagining becoming fat in one bite. Firstly, India must organize its vast skilled workforce to begin producing export-oriented products and establish appropriate quality control measures, even for the cheapest products. Secondly, it is necessary to fully control wage distribution to enable workers to achieve maximum productivity. Once such a system is introduced, India can reduce its dependence on China's export chain.

文明的人应该始终相信健康的竞争，而不是好高骛远，妄想一口吃成胖子。首先，印度必须组织其庞大的熟练劳动力，开始生产面向出口的产品，并制定适当的质量控制措施，即使是最便宜的产品。其次，必须充分控制工资分配，使劳动者获得最大生产力。一旦引入这样的制度，印度可以减少对中国的出口链的依赖。

海外网友Ashraf Chopan的回答

All these discussions about private enterprises and foreign direct investment, planning and markets, etc. are just talk on paper, far from the real world.

所有这些关于私营企业与外国直接投资、计划与市场等的讨论都是纸上谈兵，和现实世界相差十万八千里。

In the real world, China has already stood out in the global manufacturing industry (and prioritized quality, but this is a separate topic), ensuring the continuity, and possibly even permanent, of national income channels. China and major economies around the world have also made significant mutual investments on such a large scale that these countries can be said to share the same destiny. This combination of rapid growth is a master level national strategy.

在现实世界中，中国已经在全球制造业独树一帜（并将质量放在首位，但这是一个单独的话题），确保了国民收入渠道的连续性，甚至可能是永久性的。中国和世界各大经济体还进行了大量的相互投资，规模如此之大，以至于这些国家可以说是同呼吸共命运，这种快速增长下的紧密结合是一个大师级的国家战略。

China also utilizes its newly wealth to improve the quality of national infrastructure, transportation, and citizen services. Take a look at Shanghai today - by comparison, the first tier cities in India are all slums, forget about the rest.

中国也利用其开发的新财富来改善国家基础设施、交通和公民服务质量。看看今天的上海——相比之下，印度的一级城市都是贫民窟，别瞎想了。

Compared to China, India's achievement is a rounding error. Apart from meaningless Mars probes and the significant increase in internal friction caused by political parties and various organizations, what else is worth celebrating? India's achievements nationwide in the 71 years since independence are far from those of China.

与中国相比，印度所取得的成绩是一个舍入误差。除了毫无意义的火星探测器，以及政党和各类组织的大量增加徒增内耗外，还有什么值得欢呼的呢？印度独立71年来在全国范围内取得的成就与中国相去甚远。

So forget about the competition between India and China. Unless India follows China's governance model and makes necessary efforts like the Chinese people in the early days of its founding, it will always be a third world country and may even climb towards the fourth world.

所以忘掉印度与中国的竞争吧。除非印度遵循中国的治理模式，并像建国初期的中国人那样做出必要的奋斗，否则它将永远是第三世界国家，甚至可能向第四世界攀升。

To return to text book economics, improving the quality of life of a population almost the same size as China is not sustainable for a country which is a third of its size and in resources. Neither the promises of political parties nor private entrepreneurship can solve that basic imbalance. It’s basic math.

回到教科书经济学，对于一个只有中国三分之一的人口和资源的国家来说，提高与中国几乎同等规模的人口的生活质量是不可持续的。无论是政党的承诺还是私营企业都无法解决这种基本的不平衡，懂点数学的都知道。

Even worse, India's national governance system has encouraged social parasites to encroach on these meager resources. Political parties have understood how to maintain this state - dividing billions of Indians into a series of issues such as religion, caste, principles, social drama, and masala cricket, while allocating their basic necessities such as housing, food, clean air and water, electricity and transportation, good roads, social harmony, and meaningful living.

更糟糕的是，印度国家治理体系助长了社会寄生虫侵占这些微薄的资源，印度国大党等政党已经明白如何保持这种状态——用宗教、种姓、原则、社会戏剧、马萨拉板球等一系列问题来划分十几亿印度人，同时以此分配他们的基本生活必需品，如住房、食物、清洁的空气和水、电力和交通、良好的道路、社会和谐和有意义的生活。

To get India on the road to recovery will need several bitter pills to be swallowed for the next 50 years. For several reasons, India and Indians have chosen not to take them. This is akin to old folk resisting medical help when they need it most. Anybody who has parents above 75 will know what I am talking about, but I digress and I hope the point has been made. Don't compare and contrast anymore, focus on doing your own thing well.

为了让印度走上复苏之路，未来50年需要吞下几粒苦药。出于几个原因，印度和印度人选择不接受它们。这类似于老年人在最需要医疗救助的时候抗拒医疗救助。任何有75岁以上父母的人都会知道我在说什么，我可能跑题了，我希望这一点已经阐明，不要再比来比去了，专注做好你们自己的事情吧。

印度网友Shashank的回答

In what aspects do we surpass and overturn? From a population perspective, yes, India will soon surpass China to become the most populous country. Militarily, not in the foreseeable future.

在什么方面超越和翻盘？从人口角度来看，是的，印度很快就会超过中国成为人口最多的国家。军事上，在可预见的未来不会。

From an economic perspective, this is just a simple guess. My guess is negative. Indian media and government may have confidence in economic and GDP data. But considering this point (if you take GDP data as the ultimate truth of the economy), if India's economic growth rate is 7% and China's is 6.5%, it still means that China's economic growth is 4-5 times that of India, because it was originally 4-5 times larger than India's economy. In order for India to surpass China economically, it must grow at a double-digit rate, while China must shrink to around 1%, which is clearly impossible. Don't believe the Western media's roar about collapse theory, it's not the case.

从经济角度来说，这只是一个简单的猜测。我的猜测是否定的。印度媒体和政府可能对经济和国内生产总值的数据胸有成竹。但考虑一下这一点（如果你把GDP数据作为经济的最终真相），如果印度的经济增长率为7%，中国为6.5%，这仍然意味着中国的经济增长是印度的4-5倍，因为它一开始就比印度的经济大4-5倍。为了让印度在经济上超过中国，印度必须以两位数的速度增长，而中国必须收缩到1%左右，这明显不可能。不要相信西方媒体关于崩溃论的咆哮，事实并非如此。

In the early 1980s, the Chinese people admit that China is backward compared with the development of other countries in the world. China must learn from other countries humbly. As an ancient civilization with a history of 5,000 years, it is very difficult and sad to admit that China is backward.

八十年代初，中国人民承认，与世界其他国家的发展相比，中国是落后的。中国必须谦虚地向其他国家学习。作为一个有着5000年历史的古老文明，承认中国的落后是非常困难和可悲的。

During this time, the Chinese humbly welcomed all investments in the world, even those with low technology and low economic value.

在这段时间里，中国人谦虚地欢迎世界上所有的投资，即使是那些低技术和低经济价值的投资。

The Chinese government has created numerous special economic zones in the best coastal areas of China to facilitate land use, tax collection, export, employment and firing of workers,

中国政府在中国最好的沿海地区建立了许多经济特区，以便利土地使用、税收征收、出口、雇佣工人。

The Chinese has focused its efforts on building large docks, highways, airports, power stations, water facilities, and communications infrastructure to meet the needs of investors who don't have to worry about water shortages, electricity shortages, and transportation costs.

中国已将重点放在建设大型码头、高速公路、机场、发电站、供水设施和通信基础设施上，以满足投资者的需求，他们不必担心缺水、电力短缺和运输成本。

The Chinese people have built the world's largest manufacturing base, the most convenient logistics system and the most complete division of labor in 30 years.

中国人民用30年时间建成了世界上最大的制造业基地、最便捷的物流体系和最完整的分工体系。

Personally, as another ancient civilization of the world, India also needs a major change to change the face of India!

就我个人而言，作为世界上另一个古老文明，印度也需要一次重大的变革来改变印度的面貌！

But to really be a challenger of China in economic terms we will need an economy if comparable size, in addition to regional and international influence.

但要想在经济方面真正成为中国的挑战者，除了地区和国际影响力之外，我们还需要一个规模相当的经济体。

India needs to do the following things right:

印度需要做好以下几件事：

1.Infrastructure: India has massive industrial potential and a massive consumer base to consume it as well. The major bottleneck is infrastructure. India needs the best, biggest, fastest of everything to really give some competition to China. Average will just not do. Anything below that will mean we remain just that, an average nation. Like America, we should also aspire to be an exceptional nation.

基础设施：印度拥有巨大的工业潜力和庞大的消费基础。主要的瓶颈是基础设施。印度需要最好的、最大的、最快的，才能真正给中国一些竞争压力。印度的平均水平是不行的。任何低于平均水平的东西都意味着我们仍然是一个普通的国家。和美国一样，我们也应该立志成为一个杰出的国家。

2.Technology: India has a headstart due to being the largest English speaking country. This has led Indian IT to become a global leader and it is valued at 150 bn USD. China is definitely catching up with us here too. India should spread IT literacy on a large scale, private players should focus on chip fabrication in India, and they should be quick to adapt to new technologies like AI, 3D printing, Cloud networks. India should build the largest and fastest supercomputer in the world.

技术：印度是最大的英语国家，因此处于领先地位。这使印度IT成为全球领导者，其价值达到1500亿美元。中国在这里肯定也在追赶我们。印度应该大规模传播IT知识，私营企业应该专注于印度的芯片制造，他们应该迅速适应人工智能、3D打印、云网络等新技术。印度应该建造世界上最大、速度最快的超级计算机。

3.Education: India should effectively implement the universal and free eduction forchildren. India should have massive skill building programs in various fields which may include short term courses. I believe, minimum one skill per person should be a policy to experiment in Indian scenario. This way India can be considered an option for industrial production with requisite skill sets.

教育：印度应有效实施普及和免费的儿童教育。印度应该在各个领域开展大规模的技能建设项目，其中可能包括短期课程。我认为，在印度的情况下，每人至少掌握一项技能应该是一项政策。通过这种方式，印度可以被国际市场视为具有必要技能的工业生产的一个选择。

4.Defence: India is already taking leaps and bounds in this direction, but I believe we are overspending. China's defence is mainly US+ focussed. India should modernize indigenous RnD, design and production as a priority instead of buying from other countries. India should strength her strategic hold on Indian ocean choke points and make stronger security pacts with IOL (Indian ocean littoral) countries.

国防：印度已经在这个方向上取得了飞跃，但我认为我们正在超支。中国的防御主要集中在美国+。印度应该优先实现本土研发、设计和生产的现代化，而不是从其他国家购买。印度应该加强对印度洋瓶颈的战略控制，并与印度洋沿岸国签订更强有力的安全协议。

5.Science: India greatly lacks in research fundings wrt China. While Indian origin scientists contribute to world's pioneering scientific projects like LHC and gravitational waves, India should also begin studying and adapting with these new branches. This will create a greater curiosity and thrust towards research in our country. This is how USA became a superpower, by attracting the best talents and innovation. The former we have, the latter we should cultivate.

科学：印度与中国相比，在研究经费方面严重不足。虽然印度裔科学家为LHC和引力波等世界领先的科学项目做出了贡献，但印度也应该开始研究和适应这些新的分支。这将给我国的研究带来更大的好奇心和推动力。这就是美国如何通过吸引最优秀的人才和创新成为超级大国的原因。前者我们有，后者我们应该培养。

Diplomacy: India should allow its private companies to participate in its diplomatic relations with other countries. China has created a lot of goodwill by investing in poorer countries without interference. Although India has not made significant investments in infeasible ways, our private sector should accompany them and encourage them to create employment and value in poorer markets to gain their favor.

外交：印度应该让她的私营公司参与她与其他国家的外交关系。中国通过在不受干涉的情况下对较贫穷国家进行投资，创造了很多善意。尽管印度没有以不可行的方式进行大量投资，但我们的私营部门应该与之相伴，鼓励它们在较贫穷的市场创造就业和价值，以获得它们的好感。

India should help neighboring countries gain a foothold in domestic growth to promote regional stability. The Chabhar Port, India Myanmar Thailand Expressway, and the South Asian countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal) road connectivity project are just the beginning, and more work should be done to open up our eastern market.

印度应该帮助邻国在国内经济增长中占有一席之地，以促进地区稳定。恰巴哈尔港港口、印度-缅甸-泰国高速公路和南亚四国(孟加拉国、不丹、印度和尼泊尔)公路联通项目只是一个开始，应该做更多的工作来打开我们的东部市场。

This is the most time I can think of so far. We can do more, but we should persevere and have a strong commander and leading government. Giving up halfway will only slow us down.

这是我目前能想到的最多的一次。可以做更多的事情，但应该持之以恒，最好有坚强的指挥者和领导政府，半途而废只会让我们慢下来。