中国GDP占美国比例下降到74%，是否意味着中国经济已追不上美国？

根据最新数据，去年中国的GDP绝对量在与美国相比时所占比重有所降低。2021年，中国的GDP占美国GDP的百分比为78%，去年降低至74%，反映的是中美两国经济差距的拉大。这一数据引发了一些人的担忧。在海外论坛，外国网友议论道：今年，中国GDP占美国GDP的比例从70%下降到64%（实际数字为78%—74%）。 这是否意味着中国经济已经追不上美国，美国的打压措施已经成功？这引起各国网友的围观和热议，他们对此进行了分析和澄清。

新加坡网友Aya Shawn的回答

Very interesting question.

非常有趣的问题。

There is clearly an economics bluff here.

这里显然是美国在经济上虚张声势。

Let’s look at two data:

我们来看两个数据：

In 2022, China's GDP growth is expected to be 3%; in 2023, China's GDP growth is expected to be 5.2%

2022年，中国GDP增速预计为3%； 2023年中国GDP增长预计5.2%

In 2022, U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 2.1%; in 2023, U.S. GDP growth is expected to be 2.6%

2022年美国GDP增速预计为2.1%； 2023年美国GDP增速预计为2.6%

In the last statistical cycle, China's GDP accounted for about 70% of the United States. In the first quarter of 2023, this figure dropped to 64%.

上一个统计周期，中国的GDP约占美国的70%。 2023年第一季度，这一数字下降至64%。

Combining the growth rates of these two years, China's relative growth rate is higher than that of the United States, and its absolute growth figures are also greater than that of the United States.

综合这两年的增速来看，中国的相对增速高于美国，绝对增长数字也大于美国。

Why has China’s GDP as a share of U.S. GDP actually declined?

为什么中国GDP占美国GDP的比重实际上下降了？

The real reason lies in changes in the U.S. dollar exchange rate.

真正的原因在于美元汇率的变化。

As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates starting in 2022, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against global currencies continues to rise. This allows 100 US dollars to be exchanged for more renminbi (including more Korean won, Japanese yen, and euros).

随着美联储从2022年开始持续加息，美元兑全球货币的汇率持续走高。 这使得100美元可以兑换更多的人民币（包括更多的韩元、日元和欧元）。

Since China's GDP is denominated in the domestic currency, due to the appreciation of the US dollar, when it is converted into US dollars, the increase is partially offset by the appreciation of the US dollar. In the first three quarters of 2023, China's GDP growth rate in US dollars Only 0.5%.

由于中国GDP是以本国货币计价的，由于美元升值，折算成美元时，增加的部分会被美元升值所抵消。 2023年前三季度，中国以美元计算的GDP增速仅为0.5%。

The same situation applies to other countries. South Korea's GDP reached 2057.45 trillion won in 2021 and 2150.58 trillion won in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. However, based on the average exchange rate of Korean won to US dollars, it is equivalent to approximately US$1.66 trillion, a decrease of more than US$130 billion compared to 2021. South Korea's GDP has actually declined!

同样的情况也适用于其他国家。 韩国2021年GDP达到2057.45万亿韩元，2022年达到2150.58万亿韩元，同比增长3.8%。 然而，按照韩元兑美元的平均汇率计算，大约相当于1.66万亿美元，比2021年减少了1300亿美元以上。韩国的GDP实际上已经下降了！

What is even more interesting is Russia. Russia's GDP in 2022 will be 151,455.6 billion rubles, a decrease of 2.1% compared to 2021. However, because the Russian ruble has appreciated against the US dollar, if calculated in US dollars, Russia's GDP has increased significantly by 24.8%. !

更有趣的是俄罗斯。 2022年俄罗斯GDP为1514556亿卢布，比2021年下降2.1%。不过，由于俄罗斯卢布兑美元升值，如果以美元计算，俄罗斯GDP大幅增长24.8%。！

Therefore, the fundamental reason for this phenomenon is exchange rate changes. When exchange rates move too sharply, it becomes inaccurate to measure other countries' economic growth in U.S. dollar terms.

因此，造成这一现象的根本原因是汇率变化。 当汇率波动过大时，以美元衡量其他国家的经济增长就变得不准确。

If you see headlines like this in some media: "China's GDP drops to 64% of the United States, China is about to collapse." You can laugh it off.

如果你在一些媒体上看到这样的新闻：“中国GDP跌至美国的64%，中国即将崩溃”。 你可以一笑置之。

The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar is tidal. After it has experienced an appreciation space, it will inevitably usher in a depreciation space in the future. By then, the GDP of these target countries will "skyrocket."

美元的汇率是潮汐式的。 它经历了升值空间之后，未来必然会迎来贬值空间。 届时，这些目标国家的GDP将“暴涨”。

In fact, China's manufacturing industry has long been the largest in the world, with its added value accounting for about 30% of the world's total, equivalent to the manufacturing industries of the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France.

事实上，中国的制造业规模早已是世界第一，中国制造业增加值占全球的30%左右，相当于美国、日本、德国、英国、法国的制造业总和。

It can be found that China's primary and secondary industries are higher than those of the United States, but the gap lies in the tertiary industry.

可以发现，中国的第一产业、第二产业都要高于美国，但是差距就在于第三产业。

The proportion of the tertiary industry to GDP in the United States is over 80%, and consumption supports the huge economic scale of the country. The total amount of private consumption in the United States accounts for 68% of GDP, while the consumption expenditure of the federal and local governments accounts for 14% of GDP, totaling 82%.

美国第三产业占GDP的比重高达80%以上，消费支撑起了美国庞大的经济规模，美国私人消费的总额占GDP的比重为68%，而美国联邦政府及地方政府的消费支出占GDP的比重为14%，两者合计达到82%。

中国网友占米·王的回答

Well…

好吧......

The first question I had when I saw this question is that… why not mentioning the GDP nominal or PPP, and why the comparison of China’s GDP to US GDP in percentage?

当我看到这个问题时，我的第一个问题是……为什么不提及名义GDP或购买力平价，以及为什么用百分比来比较中国GDP与美国GDP？

The answer is that… to convert GDP nominal into USD, and try to find an angle which makes the US looking better.

答案是……美媒将名义GDP换算成美元，并试图找到一个让美国数据看起来更好的角度。

On one hand:

一方面：

Economy of the US is extremely unhealthy.

美国经济极其不健康。

There is a huge stream of money circling in the financial market of the US, which doesn’t create any value but is included into GDP. Say I purchased Apple stock with 10K USD and sold it for 12K, GDP got created from the thin air despite that 2K profit is actually someone else’s loss.

美国金融市场有大量资金在流通，这些资金不创造任何价值，但计入GDP。 假设我用 10K 美元购买苹果股票并以 12K 价格出售，GDP 凭空创造出来了，尽管 2K 利润实际上是别人的损失。

Meanwhile in China, GDP is calculated by production, which means that only when productions or services got created, the value added would be included into GDP. Also, the cost spent to produce or serve is excluded. Say I purchased a machine for 10K RMB and sold it for 12K, only the 2K profit is considered as MY contribution to this year’s GDP.

而在中国，GDP是按产量计算的，这意味着只有创造了生产或服务，增加值才会计入GDP。 此外，不包括生产或服务所花费的成本。 假设我花1万买了一台机器，卖了1.2万，只有2千的利润才算是我对今年GDP的贡献。

In China, stock market is not part of GDP, since no value is created. Your gain is someone’s loss.

在中国，股票市场不属于GDP的一部分，因为不创造任何价值。 你的收获就是别人的损失。

On the other hand, the exchange rate and inflation also effects the result

另一方面，汇率和通货膨胀也影响结果

If we calculate GDP by PPP, China is not only bigger than the US, but the gap is getting bigger.

如果按照购买力平价计算GDP，中国不仅比美国大，而且差距还在拉大。

Because the USD is devalued if being used to purchase real products.

因为美元如果用来购买真实的产品就会贬值。

With the same amount of CNY, I can purchase roughly 0.5% more things than in the last November.

同样的人民币，我可以比去年11月多购买大约0.5%的东西。

While in the US, it’s roughly 3.1% less.

而在美国，这一数字大约低 3.1%。

The US has been over-printing money, which caused inflation. Then the FED rose the interest rate to guild the money getting out from the market and going into treasury (and other financial investment) market. The CPI may seems to be under control, but that’s mostly because of the decreasing of oil price. Many daily expenditure such as house rental is still climbing.

美国过度印钞，引发了通货膨胀。 然后美联储提高利率，引导资金流出市场，进入国债（和其他金融投资）市场。 CPI看似受到控制，但这主要是因为油价下跌，房屋租金等许多日常支出仍在攀升。

With all the hikes, the USD has been going stronger. It means that 1 USD could be exchanged to more foreign currencies. Thus, if you calculate other countries’ GDP in USD, they all dropped.

随着所有加息，美元一直走强。 这意味着1美元可以兑换更多的外币。 因此，如果你以美元计算其他国家的GDP，它们都下降了。

To counter the negative effect from the FED’s hikes, many countries chose to have hikes too, which is to stablize the exchange rates between their currencies and USD.

为了应对美联储加息的负面影响，许多国家也选择加息，以稳定本国货币与美元的汇率。

Meanwhile, China has been lowering the interest rate in 2023 to stimulate market acitivities. Righ now, 1~5 years loan for consuming has annual interest rate around 3.4%, 20 years house loan is about 3.6% annually.

与此同时，中国一直在2023年降低利率以刺激市场活动。 目前，1~5年的消费贷款年利率约为3.4%，20年的住房贷款年利率约为3.6%。

By lowering the interest rate, CNY should devalue, which is what’s happened.

通过降低利率，人民币应该贬值，这就是发生的情况。

Of course the persentage of China’s GDP to US GDP is smaller.

当然，中国GDP占美国GDP的比重变小。

But it doesn’t mean the US economy is better than China.

但这并不意味着美国经济比中国好。

Every country is expecting a huge crisis in near future. Whichever could not hold on first will be eaten up by the world, and the crisis may be postponed.

每个国家都预计在不久的将来会发生巨大的危机。 谁先坚持不住，谁就会被世界吃掉，危机可能会被推迟。

We are all trying our best to not be the first one, and China is not going to be the first, nor the US. My bets are on South Korea, Germany, or Italy.

我们都在尽力不成为第一个，中国不会成为第一个，美国也不会成为第一个。 我赌是韩国、德国或意大利。

海外网友皮特·艾洛特的回答

This is precisely the purpose of the United States. It is unimaginable for Americans to see China's GDP exceed that of the United States, which will bring a series of chain reactions.

这正是美国的目的，不断地加息提升通胀，中国GDP超过美国对美国人来说是不可想象的，这将带来一系列的连锁反应。

When China will have completed its economic development, something very familiar in history will happen. In recent history every time a new economic power raised and another was in relative decline, this situation has brought the rivals to a direct confrontation.

当中国完成其经济发展时，历史上非常熟悉的事情将会发生。 近代历史上，每当一个新的经济强国崛起，另一个经济强国相对衰落时，这种情况就会导致对手之间发生直接对抗。

Right now most of conflicts in the world are fought by proxy, all major powers are involved in some way, sometimes intervening directly, but only when no other strong power is directly involved. The confrontation between 2 superpowers will first take the form of a trade war or a monetary war, as military conflict would use much larger amount of resources, and thus it is usually kept as solution of last resort.

目前世界上大多数冲突都是通过代理人进行的，所有大国都以某种方式参与其中，有时直接干预，但前提是没有其他强国直接参与。 两个超级大国之间的对抗首先会以贸易战或货币战的形式出现，因为军事冲突会消耗更多的资源，因此通常被作为最后的解决方案。

The natural competitor of China is obviously the USA, both in economic and most importantly military terms. However it would be wrong to picture such a bipolar world. In fact today the globalised economy is dominated by several continental super-powers: USA, China and the European Union are the most powerful in economic terms, followed closely by other regional powers such as Japan, India, Brazil, Russia and a few others:

无论是在经济方面，还是最重要的军事方面，中国的天然竞争对手显然是美国。 然而，构造这样一个两极世界是错误的。 事实上，今天的全球化经济由几个大陆超级大国主导：美国、中国和欧盟在经济方面是最强大的，紧随其后的是日本、印度、巴西、俄罗斯等其他地区大国：

Data from: List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia

数据来自：按国内生产总值（名义）划分的国家列表 - 维基百科

Some of these regional powers are still at an early stage of economic development, but their sheer size (population and territory) is almost a guarantee that they will play an important role in the next 20-30 years. The era of state nations is certainly finished, the globalised market is shared by a few continental-sized superpowers.

其中一些地区大国仍处于经济发展的早期阶段，但其庞大的规模（人口和领土）几乎可以保证它们将在未来20-30年发挥重要作用。小国抱团的时代肯定已经结束，全球化的市场被几个大陆规模的超级大国所瓜分。

This picture explains the unprecedented increase of military spending in China, the push for the creation of a European army, the involvement of USA in several local wars. The USA are fighting their relative economic decline and shrinking markets, Europe is running against time to reach political and military unification, in order to stand a chance in present and future confrontations. The other superpowers are also playing their cards, making and unmaking alliances with the other major players, punching around for vital space.

这张图解释了中国空前增加的军费开支、西方推动建立欧洲军队、美国卷入几次局部战争。 美国正在与相对的经济衰退和市场萎缩作斗争，欧洲正在争分夺秒地实现政治和军事统一，以便在当前和未来的对抗中获得机会。 其他超级大国也在打牌，与其他主要国家结盟或解除联盟，四处争夺重要空间。

Back to the question. China has still a huge untapped, internal market to flood with merchandises. Chinese people have just started to spend money on things that are not strictly necessary for survival. This is a huge reserve of workers and potential consumers. EU and USA have also still some margin, thanks to the effect of immigration, mainly from Mexico for USA and from Eastern Europe and Africa for the EU, and thanks to their political influence in many developing markets. However the old powers are obviously in a phase of decline, which they can only try to slow down, but cannot reverse.

回到问题。 中国仍有一个巨大的、尚未开发的国内市场，有巨大的增长潜力。 中国人刚刚开始把钱花在非生存必需的东西上， 这是巨大的劳动力储备和潜在消费者。 由于移民的影响（美国主要来自墨西哥，欧盟主要来自东欧和非洲），以及它们在许多发展中市场的政治影响力，欧盟和美国仍然有一定的优势。 但老牌强国显然正处于衰落阶段，只能试图减缓，而无法扭转。

China will continue its economic development for the next 20-30 years to come. More and more tensions will build up during this period, as the fight for markets, internal and foreign, will become harsher and harsher. New powers will rise, which one is impossible to predict.

未来20-30年中国经济将持续发展。 在此期间，随着对国内外市场的争夺将变得越来越残酷，紧张局势将会越来越严重。 新的势力将会崛起，这是无法预测的。

But one thing is certain: once China will have the dominant economy, it will rightly demand a corresponding political political weight on the international scene. A new balance will have to be found and, if there are lessons to learn from history, this new order will require a direct, old style, military confrontation among powers. If you feel very scared to even think about it, you are fully justified.

但有一点是肯定的：一旦中国在经济上占据主导地位，它将理所当然地要求在国际舞台上拥有相应的政治影响力。 必须找到一种新的平衡，如果可以从历史中吸取教训，这种新秩序将需要大国之间进行直接的、旧式的军事对抗。 如果你就连想一想都感到非常害怕，那么是完全有理由的。

A Third World War could be indeed the end of humanity. However it is naive to think that nuclear weapons will be abused. After all, war is an extremely rational activity: you don't want to annihilate your enemy, you want to bend it to your will. You don't want to annihilate all its resources, factories, etc.. You just want the right amount of ‘creative destruction’: after all, war is a great economic opportunity to rebuild all the damaged infrastructures and reboot the economy! Obviously the ultimate goal of a war will be to redefine a new balance of power, a new partition of the market. This is the nature of conflict under capitalism.

第三次世界大战确实可能是人类的终结。 然而，认为核武器会被滥用的想法是天真的。 毕竟，战争是一种极其理性的活动：你不想消灭你的敌人，你想让它屈服于你的意志。 你不想消灭它的所有资源、工厂等。你只想要适量的“创造性破坏”：毕竟，战争是重建所有受损基础设施并重启经济的绝佳经济机会！ 显然，战争的最终目标将是重新定义新的均势、新的市场划分。 这就是资本主义下冲突的本质。

Please analyse the facts, look at military expenditure, check out the involvement of different powers in recent wars, study the cyclical behaviour of economic development, look behind ideologies, ideas and political speech. War is avoidable only if the mass of people becomes aware of its nature and seriously start to study international politics. Otherwise when the moment comes, even the most clever people will be easily manipulated by state propaganda.

请分析事实，看看军费开支，看看不同国家在最近战争中的参与情况，研究经济发展的周期性行为，看看意识形态、思想和政治言论的背后。 只有当广大人民认识到战争的本质并认真开始研究国际政治时，战争才是可以避免的。 否则，到了那个时刻，即使是最聪明的人也会很容易被国家宣传所操纵。