上海论坛访谈集02 | 专访亚洲开发银行研究院院长吉野直行教授

基础设施在地区发展和地区一体化的作用

Role of infrastructure in regional cooperation and integration

吉野直行教授

Prof. Naoyuki Yoshino

亚洲开发银行研究院院长，日本庆应大学名誉教授

Dean & CEO, Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) and Professor Emeritus, Keio University, Japan

记者：钟雪莹

Reporter: ZHONG Xueying

良好的基础设施可以在项目周围形成巨大的溢出效应，促进区域合作和一体化。 亚太地区对基础设施投资的需求很大，为了更好地为基础设施融资，世界范围内的多边开发银行应共同努力，同时应通过和私人投资者明确公私部门之间的风险分担并返还部分溢出效应带来的税收来吸引更多私人投资。

Good infrastructure can creates huge spillover effects in the region around a project, which can promote regional cooperation and integration. The demand for infrastructure in the Asia and Pacific region is great. To better finance infrastructure, multilateral development banks should make joint effort, and private investment should be attracted by returning spillover tax revenue to investors and clarifying the risk-sharing between public and private sectors.

Q1

记者: 在亚洲开发银行（以下简称亚开行）发布的《亚洲经济一体化报告2017》中提出了六个评估区域合作与一体化的指数，比如贸易与投资、基础设施与连通性、人员流动、金融和财政政策等。 您认为其中哪个维度对区域合作和一体化最重要？

Reporter: In Asian Economic integration report 2017 published by Asian Development Bank (ADB), six indexes are proposed to evaluate Regional Cooperation and Integration (RCI), for example, trade and investment, money and finance, infrastructure and connectivity, movement of people. In your opinion, which dimension is of the most important for RCI?

吉野直行: 所有这些都很重要，但最重要的是基础设施。基础设施落后会影响整体区域的经济增长速度，也限制了本来利于创造就业机会的投资。相反，良好的基础设施会为项目周围的区域带来巨大的溢出效应。例如，铁路可以促进人员流动，也可使制造商和农民的产品运输更快捷。中小企业可以在该地区发展，进而创造就业机会、促进就业。最后，餐厅和酒店等服务性企业将建成以满足该地区日益增长的需求，资金流、地区税收都会增长。良好的基础设施还可以促进区域连通性，比如铁路特别是跨境铁路，联通的不仅是一个国家，而是在沿线的所有国家，这样可以促进区域合作和一体化。

Naoyuki Yoshinol: All of them are important, but the most important one is infrastructure. Poor infrastructure slows economic growth and limits the investment needed to create the jobs that help lift people out of poverty. Oppositely, good infrastructure creates huge spillover effects in the region around a project. Railway, for example, can facilitate movement of people, bring manufacturing factories into the region by making the shipping of products faster and safer. It can connect manufacturers and agricultural farmers to markets and to ports. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can be developed and new industry can create jobs in the region, promoting employment. Eventually, service sector businesses such as restaurants and hotels will be constructed to meet the increased demand in the region. Farmers and small businesses can sell their products at the train stations and there will be money flow and increase of property tax revenue. Good infrastructure creates huge spillover effects in the region around a project, and it can promote regional connectivity not only within one country but with countries all along the road, so that it can promote regional cooperation and integration especially when it's a cross-border one.

Q2

记者: 支持亚太地区的区域合作与一体化是亚开行重要的战略目标之一。 简而言之，亚开行采取了哪些行动？

Reporter: Supporting RCI in Asia and the Pacific is one of ADB’s key strategic priorities. Briefly speaking, what actions have ADB taken to support RCI in Asia and the Pacific?

吉野直行: 区域合作与一体化在加速经济增长、减少贫困和经济差距、提高生产力水平和就业水平以及加强制度建设方面发挥着关键作用。通过推进贸易一体化、跨区域供应链和更强大的金融联系，它能缩小各成员国之间的发展差距，促进各成员国的共同发展。通过促进区域合作和一体化的项目让亚太地区更紧密的聚集在一起是亚开行创建以来的使命之一。

Naoyuki Yoshinol: RCI plays a critical role in accelerating economic growth, reducing poverty and economic disparity, raising productivity and employment, and strengthening institutions. It narrows development gaps between ADB’s developing member countries (DMCs) by building closer trade integration, intraregional supply chains, and stronger financial links, enabling slow-moving economies to speed their own expansion. Bringing Asia and the Pacific together through projects that promote regional cooperation and integration has been a cornerstone of ADB's work since it was created.

2006年，亚开行公布了区域合作与一体化战略的四大支柱。其中最重要的是支持有关跨境基础设施和相关软件的区域和次区域经济合作计划。首先，亚行在硬基础设施提供资金，比如道路，桥梁和发电厂。其次，软性基础设施的投资，例如教育。

In 2006, ADB adopted a RCI strategy, which is anchored on four pillars. The most important one is to support regional and sub-regional economic cooperation programs on cross-border infrastructure and related software. Firstly, ADB is providing money for hard infrastructure. The fruits of those efforts can be seen in roads, bridges and power plants. Secondly, financing for soft infrastructure, for example, education.

此外，我们向相关国家提供技术援助。除此之外，亚行另外三项区域合作与一体化战略还包括贸易和投资领域的合作与融合、货币金融领域的合作以及区域公共产品的整合与合作。

Besides that, the other three ADB RCI strategy include trade and investment cooperation and integration, monetary and financial cooperation and integration and cooperation in regional public goods.

Q3

记者: 中国建立了亚洲基础设施投资银行（以下简称亚投行），和亚开行类似，它也是一个旨在支持亚太地区基础设施建设的多边发展银行。您如何看待亚开行与亚投行之间的关系，他们会成为竞争对手吗？

Reporter: China has initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is also a multilateral development bank that aims to support the building of infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific region. How do you think of the relationship between ADB and AIIB, will they be competitor?

吉野直行: 他们绝对不是竞争对手。亚洲在电力、运输、电信、水和卫生等方面需要大量的基础设施投资，长期投资需求对于应对与人口老龄化和气候变化相关的挑战至关重要。东南亚地区每年对基础设施投资的需求约为400亿美元，但目前的实际投资只有约80亿美元。亚开行无法支撑全部所需的资金，亚投行也是如此。

Naoyuki Yoshino: They are definitely not competitor. Vast amount of infrastructure investment is needed in Asia for power, transport, telecommunications, water and sanitation. The demand for long-term investment is crucial to meet the challenges associated with urbanization, aging population and climate change. In Southeast Asia, 8 billion USD is implemented as infrastructure investment every year. However, it is expected that 40 billion USD infrastructure investment is needed every year. ADB can’t support all the money, and so does AIIB.

两家银行有很多机会互相合作，包括和其他多边开发银行包括世界银行和开展合作，特别是在运输和能源等部门。这不是竞争性的领域，两行可以共同努力，以更好地促进基础设施建设。现在亚投行和亚开行之间现在有四个共同融资项目：孟加拉国的天然气基础设施和效率改进项目、巴基斯坦的高速公路项目、格鲁吉亚的道路项目以及印度的输电网络项目。例如，在巴基斯坦的国家高速公路M-4项目，该项目将建设64公里长的高速公路（绍尔果德与哈内瓦尔段）。这条连接南北的公路对巴基斯坦具有极高的战略价值，被预计能带来丰富的新的贸易和商业机会。项目总成本估计为2.73亿美元，由两行共同出资。

There are many opportunities for us to cooperate and also with World Bank and other multilateral development banks in sectors like transport and energy. It’s not competitive and we can work together to better promote the construction of infrastructure. There have been four co-financing projects between AIIB and ADB, a natural gas infrastructure and efficiency improvement Project in Bangladesh, a highway project in Pakistan, a road project in Georgia, and a power transmission network project in India. For example, in Pakistan, there is a National Motorway M-4 Project which will construct 64 km motorway linking Shorkot to Khanewal in Punjab province, which has strategic value to Pakistan as it supports north-south connectivity, new trade, and business opportunities. The total project cost is estimated at 273 million USD and we jointly fund it. Also, since two banks share a lot of common interests in the region, we can exchange ideas, experiences and knowledge in many fronts.

Q4

记者: 您在演讲中提到，尽管有多边开发银行和政府的投资，但仍不足以满足亚洲基础设施的需求。 在这种情况下，私人资金在基础设施融资中应该扮演什么角色？

Reporter: You mentioned in your speech that though there is public money from development banks and governments, it is still insufficient to satisfy Asia’s infrastructure needs. Under these circumstances, what role can private funds play in financing infrastructure?

吉野直行: 在亚洲的许多发展中国家，高速公路、火车和各种公共交通工具仍然缺乏，很多基础设施项目面临公共资金短缺的问题。为了满足他们巨大的基础设施需求、缩小投资需求与实际政府可支出之间的差距，私人资金必须投入到基础设施中。

Naoyuki Yoshino: In many developing countries in Asia, highways, trains and various modes of public transport are still lacking. Many of them face a shortage of public funds to meet their huge infrastructure needs. In order to narrow the gap between investment needs and actual government disbursements, the private funds have to be injected in infrastructure investment.

利用私人资金发展基础设施还有其他好处，比如如果对成本和效率更敏感的私人投资者加入，他们会努力督促建设方按期完成建设任务、以最小的建设成本完成项目，并在项目完成后以最低的成本经营。 近年来，政府和社会资本合作（PPP）模式正越来越受到强调。

In addition, utilizing private funds to develop infrastructure has other advantage. If investment all comes from government, it won’t care about how fast the construction is. But if private investors come in, who is cost-sensitive, they will increase pressure to shorten the period of construction so as to complete the project at minimal construction cost, and operate the project profitably at low cost after completion. In recent years, Public-Private partnerships (PPPs), including the use of private funds, are being emphasized.

Q5

记者: 在现实中，吸引私人资金投入基础设施建设的进展并不顺利。 在您看来，为什么私人投资者不愿意投资于基础设施？ 有没有什么措施能够如何解决这个问题？

Reporter: However, the progress of attracting private funds into infrastructure investment is not that smooth. In your opinions, why private investors are reluctant or hesitant to invest in infrastructure? How can we solve the problem?

吉野直行: 私人资金不愿意投资基础设施主要有两个考虑因素。一方面，他们担心基础设施项目存在风险，包括（1）政治风险：项目完成前地方政府的政权更替可能导致停工; （2）施工风险：由于所有权结构复杂带来的土地获取困难或施工期延长可能产生额外费用; （3）汇率波动风险；（4）建成后可能效益不如预期导致带来的税收增长不如预期; （5）意外支出，例如环境政策变化导致其需要对噪音进行补偿。

Naoyuki Yoshino: There are mainly two considerations behind. On the one hand, they are worried about the risks in infrastructure projects, including (1) political risk: regime change in local administration may cause stoppages before project completion; (2) construction risk: extensions in construction period or delays in land acquisition due to complicated ownership structure may create additional expense; (3) exchange risk which appears if finance comes from overseas; (4) unexpected decreases in revenue due to fee setting and decreased traffic; (5) unanticipated expenses, for example when compensation is required for noise occurring after the completion of an infrastructure project.

另一方面，尽管基础设施项目相关的项目风险很高，但预期收益率通常很低。正如我之前提到的，基础设施投资的溢出效应将增加来自企业、员工工资、销售和财产税的收入。但过去所有这些税收都是由归政府的，并不会作为基础设施的收益归还给投资者。事实上大多数PPP项目失败的原因都是因为基础设施的回报率最后只取决于用户收费，例如火车票价和高速公路收费，而这肯定低于总成本。

On the other hand, though risks associated with infrastructure projects are high and the expected rate of return is usually low. As I mentioned before, the spillover effects of infrastructure investment will increase revenues from corporate, income, sales and property taxes. In the past, however, all these tax revenues were collected by the government and not returned to the investors as budget subsidy in infrastructure. Actually, why most Public-Private partnerships (PPP) projects were disappointing is that the rate of return on infrastructure depends mainly on user charges, such as train fares and highway tolls, which is definitely lower than total cost.

私人投资者希望避免可能的风险并获得收益。 但是，风险和收益的现状和他们的偏好完全相反。为了吸引更多的私人资金，首先，必须事先明确政府部门与私营投资者之间的风险分担。 否则，与基础设施相关的风险将使私人投资者不愿将资金投入基础设施。其次，溢出效应带来的税收增长应该部分返还给基础设施投资者。基础设施投资项目需要长期的投资者。 如果通过返还基础设施投资领域产生的溢出税收入来增加基础设施的回报率，那么基础设施投资可能会有更多的长期私人资本。

Private investors want to avoid possible risks and earn benefits. However, current situation of risk and benefit is totally opposite. To attract more private funds, firstly, it is essential to clarify the risk-sharing between public and private sectors in advance. Otherwise, the risks associated with infrastructure will make private investors hesitant to put their money in infrastructure. Secondly, spillover tax revenue should be returned to infrastructure investors. Infrastructure investment projects require long-term and patient investors. If the rate of return on infrastructure can be increased by injecting spillover tax revenues generated in areas surrounding infrastructure investments, much more long-term private capital could be forthcoming for infrastructure investment.

当前的公共资金不足以满足亚洲的基础设施需求，因此通过提高基础设施投资回报率和明确公私部门之间的风险分担来吸引私人投资者进入基础设施非常重要。

Public money is insufficient to satisfy Asia's infrastructure needs, so it is quite important to attract private investors into infrastructure by increasing the rate of return on infrastructure investment and clarifying the risk-sharing between public and private sectors.

Q6

记者: 如果由公共基金投资，基础设施更像是一种公共物品，可以为所有人提供费用合理或免费的服务。 但是当私人资金被引入时，这个特征会被改变吗？ 您如何看待公私资金的理想占比？

Reporter: If invested by public fund, infrastructure is more like a public good which is available for all the people at a reasonable cost or free of charge. But when private money is injected, will this characteristic be changed? What do you think of the ideal proportion of public fund and private fund?

吉野直行: 我所说的外溢效应的并不意味着向用户收的价格应该增加。相反，政府应该监管水电等重要基础设施价格，因为它们是使用费。用户使用的费用可能很低，但溢出效应带来的税收增加可以弥补这一点。例如，水电供应良好会使得整个区域发展加快，新的企业和部门会进入，经济增长速度会加快，生产力水平和就业率会提高，这将带来税收增加。私人投资的收益并不是来自于用户使用价格的提高，而是来自外溢效应带来的税收增加。

Naoyuki Yoshino: My idea of spillover effect doesn’t mean that user price should be increased. Oppositely, government should regulate important infrastructure prices such as water and electricity, because they are user charge. User charge can be low, but spillover tax revenue can compensate for that. For example, with good water and electricity supply, the region will be developed, new department will come in and economic growth will be accelerated, productivity and employment will be raised. With good transportation system, as poorer countries' economies become more integrated with those of their richer neighbors, they have more opportunity to boost their growth potential and speed their expansion, which will bring about increased tax revenue. So, I am not talking about conflict between public and private. Public side price should be low because everyone need to drink water, and benefits that private side needs can be got because of the raise of tax revenue generated by good infrastructure.

就公共和私人资金的比例而言，不同的部门会有所不同，并且随着时间的不同也会改变。当某一领域的预期利润不高或风险较大、私人投资者不愿意投资时，政府应该投入更多的资金。例如，政府可以先投资60％，私人投资方则可以提供40％。但是，如果利润变得越来越好，更多的私人投资者愿意投入他们的资金，那么这个比例可能会改变。相反，对于那些人口稠密和发达的地区，很多公司有兴趣投资，那么私人比例可以达到80％，政府比例可以达到20％。所以没有确切的数字，都要取决于未来的期望。

In terms of proportion of public and private money, it will be different due to different sector and will change with time. When the expected profit is not so high or it is risky and private investors are reluctant to invest, government should put more money. For example, government can first invest 60%, and private side offers 40%. But if the profit becomes better and better, more private investors will be willing to put in their money, and the proportion may be changed. Oppositely, for those populated and developed area, many companies are interested to invest in, then the proportion can be 80% from private and 20% from government. So, there is no definite number, but depends on future expectation.

Q7

记者: 您的演讲主题是关于基础设施投资对连接东西方地区发展的作用。 您能否再具体一点地说明基础设施投资如何促进东西方合作？

Reporter: Your speech topic is about role of infrastructure investment for regional development by connecting East and the West. Can you illustrate more about how infrastructure investment can promote cooperation between East and West?

吉野直行: 东西方的开发银行可以在基础设施投资方面进行合作。例如，欧洲复兴开发银行（EBRD）和亚投行正在中亚的基础设施建设方面进行合作。正如我前面提到的，对基础设施资金的需求是巨大的，世界银行、亚开行、亚投行、欧洲复兴开发银行或者说任何多边开发银行、政府都无法单独承担，所以开展东西方合作是有巨大意义的。此外，东西方之间可以分享有关基础设施的经验。欧洲拥有良好的铁路系统，中国也致力于发展亚洲的高铁。对于中国来说，如果欧洲体系有一些优势，那就可以借鉴。同时，如果中国的技术和技术更好，欧洲也可以从中有所学习。

Naoyuki Yoshino: In the past, the Silk Road connected the West and East. Nowadays, many goods are transported through ship or by air, but we should not forget land transportation. For example, railway can also carry huge amount of product and it can also reduce transportation cost between West and East. Tourism can also be boosted if this transportation can be operated smoothly. So I think the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a good example of infrastructure investment that connects East and West. It's the physical dimension of connection between East and West.

Also, there can be sharing of experience between East and West concerning infrastructure. Europe has a good railway system, and China is also devoted to developing high-speed rail in Asia. For China, if European system has some superiority, then it can be introduced. Meanwhile, if China generates better skill and technology, European system may also learn from it.

What’s more, there has been cooperation between East andWest in construction of infrastructure. For example, European Bank for Reconstructionand Development (EBRD) and AIIB are cooperating in infrastructure constructionin Central Asia. Again, the demand for infrastructure is great, and nor couldWB, ADB, AIIB, EBRD fulfil it alone, and it is of joint interest to carry out cooperationbetween East and West.

Q8

记者: 中日韩三国的基础设施建设现在已经相对较好。对于他们来说，基础设施是否还是它们合作和一体化的重要因素？

Reporter: For Japan, China and South Korea, whose infrastructure seems to have been relatively well constructed, are infrastructure still important for their cooperation and integration?

吉野直行: 当然，这三个国家还是有机会在三国或者其他亚洲国家进行基础设施合作。但我认为东亚一体化最重要的是文化交流。过去，中国，日本和韩国分别把目光看向了不同的方向。即使我们都想与欧盟合作，情况是日本在与欧盟谈判，中国在与欧盟谈判，韩国在与欧盟谈判。欧盟始终是一个统一的共同体，对于东亚国家来说，我们应该像欧盟一样实现更大程度的合作与一体化，这样我们才会变得更强大。

Naoyuki Yoshino: Still, there are opportunities for them to cooperate in infrastructure within these three countries and in other Asian countries. But I think the most important thing for East Asia integration is cultural exchange. In the past, China, Japan and South Korea used to look at different directions respectively. Even we all want to cooperate with the EU, the situation is that Japan is talking with EU, China is talking with EU and South Korea is talking with EU. The EU is always there as a unified community, and it is also important for East Asian countries to form a coalition to talk with EU. We should cooperate more just as EU does, so that we will be much stronger.

我认为促进中日韩合作的一个重要途径是促进学生之间的交流，比如高中生的交换项目，这样青年一代才能理解我们共同的文化。而且这个交流应该是持续的，交换结束后学生们还可以通过Skype或微信继续沟通，这将带来更好的思想交流。

I think student exchange among China, Japan and South Korea is also important so that our young generation can understand our own culture. Also, there should be continuous exchange. These students can continue their communication with each other through skype or Wechat for example one hour each week, which will lead to better exchange of ideas. It is of great important for RCI in East Asia.

Q9

记者: 2019年将是中日韩合作启动20周年。 在经贸方面，三边自由贸易协定（FTA）自2012年开始谈判，但进展仍然有限。 您如何看待东亚经济合作的困难？

Reporter: 2019 will witness the 20th anniversary of the launch of China-Japan-South Korea cooperation. In terms of economy and trade, the negotiation on trilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) began in 2012, but progress is still limited. What do you think of the difficulty in economic cooperation in East Asia?

吉野直行: 自由贸易是对大家都有利的，但前提是人员流通自由、资金流动自由，一切经济活动之间都能流通自由，而事实并非如此。其次，各部门的发展速度各不相同。 在金融领域，从一个产品转换到另一个产品很容易，并且可以进行快速调整。但在农业方面，农民不能立即改变产品，可能需要三到五年的时间。 所以如果我们今天开始自由贸易，所有的农民都会抱怨。

Naoyuki Yoshino: Free trade is good as long as labour motility is free, exchange rate is free, and everything is free. However, in reality, it is not. For example, in Chinese case, there is still capital control, and exchange rate is gradually moving rather than market-oriented. Secondly, sector by sector, development speed is totally different. In finance sector, it’s easy to change from one product to another, and there can be a very quick adjustment. But in agriculture, farmers can’t change their products immediately, and it may take three to five years. So if we start free trade today, all the farmers will complain.

这两个维度解释了为什么理论说自由贸易是好的，但实际上并非如此，或者说需要时间。 有赢家和输家，我们必须关注输家。如何弥补利益受损的一方对FTA来说非常重要。

These two dimensions explain why theory says free trade is good because everything moves quickly, but in reality it’s not and it takes time. There are winners and losers, we must pay attention to losers, or in another word, weak sectors, which is very important for FTA.

Q10

记者: 美国的战略收缩和保护主义经济政策的复兴给全球化带来了严峻的挑战。您是否觉得欧盟和东亚国家可能在全球治理形成一股合力？

Reporter: The pullback of the US and revival of protectionist economic policies have raising severe challenges to globalization. In your opinion, is it possible for EU and East Asian countries to form a joint effort in global governance?

吉野直行: 是的。 美国过去是自由贸易的操纵者，但现正如我之前提到的，自由贸易是好的，但有输家。现在在美国，利益受损者占了很大一部分，所以特朗普已经改变了态度。但总的来说，自由贸易和自由贸易流动可以创造更好的局面，所以没有美国，东亚和欧盟国家应该继续努力。唯一我们必须记住的是，输家必须得到补偿。 例如，如果几十年种水稻的农民发现米价突然下跌，他们会不满。 所以市场的调整必须是渐进的，我们必须证明即使是输家，未来也有更好的机会，这非常重要。

Naoyuki Yoshino: Yes, I think so. The US used to be the operator of free trade, but nowadays, there are many trade unions, labor unions, which is also the reason why its attitude has totally changed. As I mentioned before, free trade is good but there are losers. Loser part now accounts for a large amount in the US today, so Trump has changed its attitude. However, in general, free trade and free trade mobility can create better situation, so without the US, East Asian and EU countries should continue their effort. The only thing we must remember is that, losers must be compensated. For example, if farmers who have cultivated rice for decades find that rice price falls all of a sudden, they will complain. There must be gradual adjustment of market and we must show that even losers will have better chance in the future, which is very important.

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上海论坛访谈集01| 专访麦肯锡全球研究院院长乔纳森·沃泽尔博士