美媒：近半中国富豪想移民调查不具代表性

美国科技博客石英网9月17日文章，原题：半数中国百万富翁想移民？不见得 巴克莱银行本周发布的一份报告显示，中国半数最富有的男性和女性想离开中国。具体来说，资产净值超过150万美元的中国人中，有47%想移民，而全球平均水平为29%。

但正如彭博社专栏作家亚当·明特所说，这项调查是基于一部分不具代表性的百万富翁进行的。这些人愿意跟陌生人聊敏感的财务问题。明特的观点直指剖析富翁行为困难的原因——他们中的大多数行事极为隐秘，极力远离聚光灯。

露富会让中国商人成为反腐机构的目标。2012年的一项研究发现，登上胡润富豪榜的人受到调查的可能性更大，他们上市公司的市值也更容易下跌。移民问题尤其敏感，北京最近决定追捕150名生活在美国的经济罪犯。

中国企业家和富人离中国近是有道理的。莱坊房地产经纪公司研究员利亚姆·巴利表示：“事实是中国净资产最高的那些人中的多数眼下能在中国赚到钱。因此从商业因素考量，他们需要靠近中国。这或许使这些人免于远走他乡。”

受访中国人中，30%的人的首要目的地是香港。若排除香港，只有34%的受访者愿离开内地。如明特所言，这一比例低于卡塔尔想移民的富豪比例，与拉丁美洲的比例持平。

Half of China’s wealthiest men and women are eager to leave their home country, according to a report from Barclays released this week. Specifically, up to 47% of Chinese with more than $1.5 million in total net worth surveyed by the bank would like to move abroad, compared to the global average of 29%, the report said.

But as Adam Minter, an author and columnist for Bloomberg, points out, the survey is based on a small and unrepresentative subsection of Chinese millionaires—those willing to speak to a stranger about sensitive financial matters. Minter’s point gets at the heart of what is difficult about dissecting the behavior of China’s oligarchs: most of them are intensely secretive and work hard to stay out of the limelight.

Conspicuous wealth makes Chinese businessmen and women a target for the country’s anti-corruption authorities. A study in 2012 found that Chinese listed on the Shanghai-based Hurun Rich List were more likely to be investigated and more likely to see the market value of their listed companies fall. And emigration is particularly sensitive, as Beijing has recently pledged to pursue some 150 “economic fugitives” living in the United States.

It makes sense for Chinese entrepreneurs and wealthy to at least remain close to China. “The reality is that most ultra-high net worth individuals in China are probably making money in China right now,” Liam Bailey, a researcher at the broker Knight Frank LLP said in the report (pdf. p.14). “So, for business reasons, they need to be relatively close. That might prevent some of them going further afield,” he said.

Indeed, of the Chinese polled, 30% said their top emigration destination was the semi-autonomous territory Hong Kong. If Hong Kong is stripped out, only about 34% of Chinese surveyed want to leave the mainland. As Minter noted, That’s a lower percentage of eager-to-emigrate millionaires in Qatar and on par with those in Latin America.