外媒专访：中国运营这条北方海航道，将改变全球格局

来源：人大重阳

编者按：全球首条中欧北极集装箱周班航线即将开通。7月26日，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长、全球领导力学院院长王文接受今日俄罗斯（RT）专访时表示，北方海航道的核心价值在于为欧亚贸易体系提供一个独立的、具有战略意义的备用通道，从多个维度增强全球贸易的韧性。现将专访中英文内容及视频发布如下：（中文约1900字，预计阅读时间5分钟）

今日俄罗斯：我们将连线中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长王文教授。王教授，非常感谢您参加我们的节目。首先我想请教您，北方海航道货运航行常态化能为全球贸易带来哪些经济利益？

王文：我认为这是一次具有历史意义的全球贸易事件，将给亚欧贸易体系带来多方面实质性的经济利益。我认为北方海航道从传统的临时试运行转变为标准化的常态运营，显著优化了亚欧贸易物流效率，并有效降低了贸易成本。

正如您刚才提到的，与传统航线相比，北方海航道将航程缩短了25%到35%，使亚洲至欧洲的运输时间减少了10到20天，这大幅缩短了企业的商品周转周期，降低了营运资金和仓储成本，有助于对外贸易企业提升出口竞争力。因此这对北欧、远东以及亚欧北部地区的城市而言是非常有利的，给开展亚欧贸易的企业也能带来直接的经济效益。

今日俄罗斯：从地缘政治角度看，您认为这条北方海航道的发展对“全球南方”和不断变化的世界贸易格局意味着什么？

王文：我认为北方海航道对“全球南方”和全球贸易格局有深远影响。对“全球南方”而言，北方海航道最大的意义在于摆脱对单一航线的依赖。

众所周知，过去亚欧贸易在很大程度上依赖马六甲海峡、红海和苏伊士运河。而这些航线容易受到地缘政治紧张局势的影响。战乱、海盗活动与封锁，时常对东南亚、南亚和非洲的对外出口贸易造成影响。新的北方海航道提供了一个更安全、更短的替代路线，为发展中国家与欧洲的贸易提供了更多选择，从而带来更稳定的供应链和更低的物流成本。对于全球贸易格局而言，北方海航道已经完全打破了过去几十年高度依赖传统南方航线的单一贸易路线格局，形成了南北并行的新型贸易体系。

我认为在未来，全球贸易的重心已经显著向北转移，随着东北亚、北欧以及俄罗斯-北极地区的经济发展水平持续上升，传统的地中海-中东主导路线的战略影响将会相对下降。所以我认为总体上，北方海航道不仅为发展中国家提供了突破障碍的机会，也为全球贸易秩序从西方主导转向更为多元和平衡的新格局提供了可能。

今日俄罗斯：在地缘政治紧张程度异常之高，地区冲突频发、不确定性上升的情况下，正如你刚刚所说，北方海航道未来会对全球贸易非常重要。你认为这条贸易航线本身在应对我提到的这些问题和冲突时将如何影响全球贸易的韧性？

王文：实际上我认为，未来北方海航道将给国际贸易企业带来极大助益。从全面预测的角度来看，未来几十年里，我们不得不承认，苏伊士运河仍将继续承担亚洲与欧洲之间绝大多数的货运任务。北方海航道不会抢夺苏伊士运河作为主要航道的地位，反而会分担东亚与北欧之间对时间高度敏感的货物运输压力。因此我认为最终会形成南北双航线格局，南线处理大宗的一般货物，北线处理更高价值的紧急货物。正如你所提到的，我认为北方海航道的核心价值在于为欧亚贸易体系提供一个独立的、具有战略意义的备用通道，从多个维度增强全球贸易的韧性。

英文版对话内容

RT: We're going to cross live to the Dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Renmin University of China Professor Wang Wen. Professor, thanks a lot for joining us on the program. First of all, I want to ask you about the economic benefits that regular shipping cargo services along the Northern Sea Route could bring to global trade. What do you think?

Wang Wen: Well, I think this is a historical global trade event, bringing multiple substantial economic benefits to the Asia-Europe trade system. I think the Northern Sea Route has shifted from traditional temporary trial version to standardized live operation, significantly optimizing the efficiency of Asia-Euro trade logistics and effectively reducing trade costs. As you mentioned that compared to a traditional route, the Northern Sea Route shortened the voyaging by 25 percent to 35 percent, reducing Asia to Europe transit time by 10 days or 20 days or even 25 days. This significantly reduced the turnover cycle of goods for businesses, decreasing working capital and warehousing costs, and help foreign trade enterprises enhance their export competitiveness. So this will be very beneficial news for cities in northern Europe, far east and northern Eurasia. And the economic benefits for companies engaged in Asia-Europe trade will be quite direct.

RT: From a geopolitical perspective, what do you think that the development of this Northern Sea Route means for the Global South and the evolving balance of world commerce?

Wang Wen: I think the Northern Sea Route has profound implications for the Global South and the global trade landscape. For the Global South the greatest significance of the Northern Sea Route is breaking free from dependence on a single shipping route. And as we all know, in the past, the Asian-European trade heavily relied on the Strait of Malacca, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal. And these routes were vulnerable to geopolitical tension between Europe and the U.S. Wars and piracy and blockades often peacefully restricting the export trade of southeast Asia, south Asia, and Africa. And the new northern route provides a safer and shorter alternative, giving developing countries more options in their trade with Europe, resulting in more stable supply chain and lower logistics costs. And for the global trade landscape, the Northern Sea Route has completely broken the single trade route pattern of the past few decades, which relied heavily on the south-shaping mainline, forming a new trade system with parallel northern and southern routes. So I think in the future, the global trade center of gravity has shifted significantly northward with the economic standard of northeast Asia, northern Europe, and Russia-Arctic region continuously rising. So while the strategic influence of traditional Mediterranean and Middle Eastern-shaping routes has relatively declined. So I think overall, the Northern Sea Route not only provides a developing country with opportunity to break through barriers, but also provides a global trade order from western dominance to a more diversified and balanced new pattern.

RT: Well, at a time when, of course, geopolitical tensions are abnormally high, there's regional conflicts going on, growing uncertainty. I mean, you said that you project the Northern Sea Route to become very significant for global trade in the future. How do you think that the trade route itself is going to fare for global trade resilience in the face of issues like this, conflicts like I mentioned?

Wang Wen: Yeah, you mentioned a lot. I totally agree. So actually, I think in the future, the Northern Sea Route will help a lot for the international trade company. And also, I think comprehensively forecast in the coming decades, we have to admit that the Suez Canal will continue to handle the vast majority of freight traffic between Asia and Europe. The Northern Sea Route will not steal the Suez Canal primary canal value, but rather, it will share the high-end, time-sensitive cargo market between East Asia and North Europe. So I think ultimately, forming a dual-route pattern where the south route handles the bulk general cargo, while the north route handles higher-value urgent goods. So as you mentioned, I think the core value of the Northern Sea Route lies in providing an independent, strategic backup channel for Euro-Asia trade system, enhancing the resilience of global trade from multiple dimensions.