无论如何，最糟糕的时间已经过去.. 260414

注：本文原发于跨资产星球北京时间4月12日的内容，截止今天，全球市场股市均接近与创出新高。部分内容已删减，完整版可在文末获取。

X@Ariston Wang: https://x.com/ariston_macro?s=21

一、我对伊朗的看法，为什么交易注定达成，虽然结果同样注定无法回到开战前 / My view on Iran: why a deal is destined to be reached, even though the outcome is equally destined not to return to the pre-war state

在美以谈判结果出来之前，星球连发了三条帖子，内容如下，这部分是我对伊朗战争以来各类事件与新闻结果的看法框架，回答了为什么只要政权颠覆这条路径不存在，交易就一定会最终达成的这一问题。事实上，在外事机构的培训里，所谓谈判，所有官员会和你说到的第一个要求就是，谈判的一切，均在与结果的产出。

Before the result of the U.S.-Israel negotiations came out, I posted three consecutive messages in the Planet. The content is reproduced below. This section lays out my framework for thinking about the various events and news developments since the Iran war, and it answers why, so long as regime overthrow is not on the table, a deal must eventually be reached. In diplomatic training, the very first requirement officials will tell you about negotiation is that everything in a negotiation is ultimately about producing an outcome.

可以不谈判，但谈判进程一旦开启，无论如何都是一个必须要有结果的事情，在流血地缘事件中尤其。换句话说，在一切开始之初，结果的产出就已经是必然的，区别只在于谈判利益划分如何，但无论怎样，谈判一旦开启，最糟糕的恶性情景就已经不再可能长期持续：

You may choose not to negotiate, but once a negotiation process begins, it becomes something that must produce a result one way or another, especially in a bloody geopolitical event. In other words, from the very beginning, the production of an outcome is already inevitable. The only difference lies in how the benefits are divided in the negotiation. But whatever the split, once negotiation begins, the worst malignant scenario is no longer able to persist for long:

伊朗不是其人民所属的伊朗，而是其统治的宗教领袖集团所属的伊朗。因此，分析不能从公众的视角来框架。领导层专注于两件事：维护公众观感，以及保护其自身的根本利益。

Iran does not belong to its people; it belongs to the clerical leadership group that rules it. Therefore, analysis cannot be framed from the public's perspective. The leadership is focused on two things: maintaining public optics and protecting its own core interests.

这就是为什么伊朗战争不同于越南战争。其核心归结为一点：美国实际上已经放弃了政权更迭。剩下的就是与继任者达成一套新的利益安排，以一种既保全面子又尊重宗教情感的方式。只需看看那十项要求的时机，就可以清楚地看出这一点。它们正是在阿里·哈梅内伊的宗教哀悼期结束时提出的，一天也不晚。归根结底，这一切都关乎金钱。统治集团只是在为新秩序中争取更大份额。别想多了。

This is why the Iran war is different from the Vietnam War. The core point comes down to one thing: the United States has in practice already given up on regime change. What remains is to reach a new arrangement of interests with the successor structure in a way that preserves face and respects religious sensitivities. Just look at the timing of those ten demands and the point becomes obvious. They were put forward exactly when Ali Khamenei's period of religious mourning ended, not a day later. In the end, all of this is about money. The ruling group is simply bargaining for a larger share in the new order. Do not overthink it

提出要约、还价，并达成交易。交易就是交易。那些认为系统过于复杂的人，其实并不真正理解权力的运作方式。只要有一个明确定义的统治集团，就能够达成交易。从历史上看，长期战争往往出现在地理国家内部不存在单一、连贯的统治权威的地方。

Make an offer, bargain, and get a deal done. A deal is a deal. People who think the system is too complicated do not actually understand how power works. As long as there is a clearly defined ruling group, a deal can be made. Historically, prolonged wars often emerge in places where there is no single, coherent ruling authority within the geographic state.

二、市场的定价：汇市 / Market Pricing: FX

截至周线收盘，市场基本保留了停火驱动的涨幅：

As of the weekly close, the market had largely retained the ceasefire-driven gains:

图：停火驱动的定价截至收盘被加以保留

鉴于我们的根本判定框架（见上文），市场在未来三到六周对霍尔木兹局势边际缓和和滞胀定价的回吐是期望最高的可能路径，但由于美伊在核问题上仍未达成一致，尾部风险并未消失，所以，两个自然而然的判断是：1）组合层面不再适合维持大规模防御，2）应转向缩小仓位但偏多风险方向的交易框架。

Given our core judgment framework above, the most likely path over the next three to six weeks is for the market to price in marginal easing around the Strait of Hormuz while partially unwinding stagflation pricing. But because the U.S. and Iran still have not reached agreement on the nuclear issue, tail risks have not disappeared. That leads naturally to two judgments: 1) at the portfolio level it no longer makes sense to maintain large-scale defensiveness, and 2) the framework should shift toward smaller position sizes but with a risk-on bias.

图：美元指数（四小时图，截至 260412）

在这种情况下，广义美元多头的性价比开始下降，在我们强调被动或主动的了结此前汇市做多的大部分仓位后，美元已经一路下行至今，不仅跳空跌破了自3月初以来的上行红线，更是重返了98.8的震荡区间上沿，这里开始，红线将成为强劲阻力线，我们对美元的观点由强多头转为无趋势震荡。

In that environment, the risk-reward of broad dollar longs is starting to deteriorate. After we emphasized either passive or active profit-taking on most of our prior FX longs, the dollar has kept falling all the way to now. It not only gapped below the upward-sloping red line that had held since early March, but also returned to the upper bound of the 98.8 trading range. From here, that red line becomes strong resistance. Our dollar view therefore shifts from strong bullishness to trendless range trading.

如果美国股市相对全球其他市场走弱，可能会重燃此前长期资金重新思考美元资产配置权重的行动，提高 FX hedge ratio，甚至带来资金回流本币市场...

If U.S. equities weaken relative to other global markets, that could revive the longer-term rethinking by institutional capital over the weighting of dollar assets, raising FX hedge ratios and even bringing capital back into local-currency markets...

图：事实是 US equities 的确 haven’t performed as well versus Rest of World as one might expect during a cyclical macro shock

续接上文，停火之后，汇率表现已经不再像3月那样主要由相对贸易条件驱动，而更多受到 risk premium compression影响，最典型的证据是 NOK，其在油价回落的当周仍然是最强 G10 之一，说明资金并不是机械按油价和贸易条件交易，而是主动压缩地缘风险溢价：

Continuing from above, after the ceasefire, FX performance is no longer driven mainly by relative terms of trade as it was in March, but more by risk-premium compression. The clearest evidence is NOK: even in the same week that oil prices fell, it still ranked among the strongest G10 currencies. That shows capital is not trading mechanically off oil prices and terms of trade, but is actively compressing geopolitical risk premia:

图：NOK（日线图，截至 260412）

如果交易框架继续从“避险对冲”切到“交易局势缓和下的风险修复”，那么EUR/AUD的交易对会成为资金的主要代理对象，逻辑是，在局势边际缓和下，AUD 能更直接承接广义高beta 反弹，而 EUR 弹性不足，所以 short EUR/AUD 比继续拿 AUD vs SEK/GBP 会更纯粹：

If the trading framework keeps shifting from "safe-haven hedge" to "risk repair under easing tensions," then EUR/AUD will become a key proxy for capital. The logic is that under marginal easing, AUD can absorb the broader high-beta rebound more directly, while EUR lacks that kind of elasticity. So short EUR/AUD is a purer expression than continuing to hold AUD versus SEK or GBP:

图：EURAUD（日线图，截至 260412）

最后，突破黄线，我们对SEK的做多已经开始：

Finally, after breaking above the yellow line, our long SEK position has now begun:

图：SEK 叠加 CL（日线图，截至 260412）

逻辑详见此前Notes，这是一个我们已经盯了一个多月的风险退散的交易对象。

The logic is explained in earlier Notes. This is a risk-release trade we have been watching for more than a month.

三、市场的定价：股市（人民币进入#3与中国股指）/Market Pricing: Equities （RMB entersand China indices）

人民币美元同步跳入#3阶段，这一阶段的定位是双向波动但缓慢升值，在保住汇率稳定和出口增长的前提下为本币资产继续做多头基础，这意味着只要人民币兑美元其仍然运行在两条蓝线夹住的#3区域，整个内地市场股指就不会出现大幅下挫，只可能走1）稳定上行，2）区间震荡两种路径：

RMB and the dollar have both moved into phase #3. This phase is defined as two-way fluctuation but gradual appreciation, preserving exchange-rate stability and export growth while continuing to provide a bullish foundation for domestic-currency assets. That means as long as RMB/USD remains inside the #3 zone bounded by the two blue lines, mainland equity indices are unlikely to suffer a sharp drop. The likely paths are only: 1) stable upward movement, or 2) range-bound trading:

图：人民币兑美元（日线图，截至 260412）进入#2 后的#3 升值区域

沪指，在 200 日年线上方获得支撑，后续预期是在3800-4200的金线区间内沿年线震荡式上行，其将仍然由科技+资源两条主要硬资产线路（定义详见此前Notes）引领：

The Shanghai Composite has found support above the 200-day moving average. The expectation going forward is a grind higher along the moving average within the 3800-4200 gold-lined range, still led by the two main hard-asset lines of technology plus resources, as previously defined in the Notes...

深指，同样，但可能会率先突破上沿金线...

The Shenzhen index is similar, but it may break above the upper gold line first...

完整内容订阅链接：https://t.zsxq.com/i90xY

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