我国已经进入拉尼娜状态

国家气候中心监测显示，今年10月，我国已经进入拉尼娜状态。拉尼娜现象是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现象。

China faces a potential winter-to-spring drought in its eastern and southern regions, as climate experts link current weather patterns to a persistent cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, known as La Nina conditions.

La Nina refers to a prolonged period where the sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are unusually cool. Monitoring by the National Climate Center shows that these conditions emerged in October.

国家气候中心气候预测室副主任章大全指出：我们在气象业务上用NINO（尼诺）3.4指数，去表征赤道中东太平洋的海温。一般来讲，当NINO（尼诺）3.4指数跌破零下0.5摄氏度的时候，我们认为赤道中东太平洋进入拉尼娜状态。

Meteorologists track these temperatures using the Nino 3.4 index, the standard metric for defining such events. When this index falls below minus 0.5 C, the region is considered to have entered La Nina conditions, said Zhang Daquan, deputy director of the center's climate prediction division.

拉尼娜状态并不等于拉尼娜事件

根据国家标准，尼诺3.4指数需要连续5个月在零下0.5摄氏度以下，才会被认为是发生了一次拉尼娜事件。所谓的“双重拉尼娜”，并非同一年中出现两次拉尼娜事件，而是指连续两年的冬季持续发生拉尼娜事件。

国家气候中心预测显示，今年冬天产生双重拉尼娜事件的概率不大。尽管如此，拉尼娜状态的持续仍对我国气候有一定影响。

Entering La Nina conditions is not the same as having a full La Nina event. According to the national standard, an event is officially declared only when the index remains below minus 0.5 C for at least five consecutive months.

Forecasters expect the current cooling to persist for the next two to three months before shifting toward neutral conditions around February or March of next year, which would likely prevent it from meeting the five-month threshold for an official event.

可能带来冬春连旱

章大全表示，拉尼娜的直接影响就是它会在西北太平洋和南海上空激发出一个气旋式的环流异常，在其西北侧盛行东北风。而我国冬季主要的水汽来源都是热带地区，盛行东北风会抑制水汽的输送，使得我国东部和南部地区降水持续地偏低。

结合前期的预测，预计今年冬季我国华东和华南等地可能出现冬春连旱。

Nevertheless, sustained La Nina conditions can still influence China's climate, particularly precipitation patterns, Zhang said.

La Nina tends to create a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. The resulting prevailing northeasterly winds suppress the transport of water vapor from tropical regions — China's main moisture source in the winter.

As a result, precipitation in eastern and southern China may remain below normal, raising the possibility of a drought in these regions during the winter and the following spring, according to the center.

章大全分析，预计今年冬季我国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，但气温冷暖起伏显著，强降温和升温事件频繁。降水方面，全国降水总体偏少，空间上将呈“北多南少”分布。

Zhang responded that rather than simply linking the condition with a colder winter, China's average winter temperature is actually expected to be near or slightly above the long-term average, though overall precipitation is likely to be lower than normal.

According to the center, temperatures may fluctuate sharply this winter, along with more pronounced swings between cold and warm periods.

记者：赵伊梦

来源：央视新闻 新华网

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