梅里·马达沙希：COP30会是全球气候治理的转折点吗？｜中英文对照

IPP评论是国家高端智库华南理工大学公共政策研究院（IPP）官方微信平台。

导语：

“残酷的现实是，我们未能确保全球升温幅度控制在1.5摄氏度以内。”联合国秘书长古特雷斯6日在贝伦气候峰会上如此警告。

世界气象组织发布的最新报告显示，极端高温特征在2025年仍将持续，这一年或将成为有记录以来第二或第三热的年份。全球多地频繁遭遇强台风与极端高温。然而，与不断加剧的气候危机形成鲜明对比的是，全球气候合作却呈现疲软态势。美国等大国缺乏参与意愿，各国在责任分配、资金支持以及能源转型等问题上也难以达成协调。

在此背景下，11月10日，《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三十次缔约方大会（COP30）在巴西贝伦召开。美国总统特朗普史无前例地并未派遣官方高级别代表团出席。尽管形势严峻，本届大会仍肩负重要使命——新一轮国家自主贡献（NDCs）。国家自主贡献是《巴黎协定》的核心机制，而2025年恰逢协定达成十周年，是各国“交卷”的关键节点。COP30需要进一步把“守住1.5摄氏度红线”的目标具体化，转化为切实可行的气候治理与协作措施。

在IPP荣誉教授、联合国教科文组织国际创意和可持续发展中心顾问理事梅里·马达沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）看来，本届COP30 的关键不在于程序性文件，而在于它所揭示的气候治理格局变化：美国等传统主导力量的退场，使全球气候机制出现前所未有的政治空缺；相反，全球南方的集体崛起正推动气候议程从过去的自上而下谈判，转向由新兴经济体和跨国城市网络等共同塑造的多中心架构。

她认为，这种力量重组，将深刻影响未来气候规则的制定方式，也将决定气候治理能否在长期分歧中找到新的支点。

*本文作者：梅里·马达沙希（Mehri Madarshahi）

华南理工大学公共政策研究院（IPP）荣誉教授、联合国教科文组织国际创意和可持续发展中心（ICCSD）顾问理事

Honorary Professorof The Institute of Public Policy (IPP) ,South China University of Technology (SCUT) ;

member of Advisory Board of UNESCO International Centre for Creative Economy and Sustainable Development（ICCSD）

正文

COP30：全球气候治理的转折点

COP 30 as a Turning Point in Global Climate Governance

引言

Introduction

近几个月来，气候变化带来的现实风险已经愈发凸显——2025年全球最强热带气旋在11月短短几天内两度袭击菲律宾。台风“卡尔马吉”（菲律宾当地称“蒂诺”）横扫菲律宾中部，引发山洪和泥石流，菲律宾岛屿省份宿务遭受的冲击尤为严重，整个居民社区被冲垮，造成惨重的人员伤亡。随后，这场台风还继续向越南方向移动。

The physical risks of a changing climate were underlined in recent months when the world’s most powerful tropical cyclone of 2025 hit the Philippines twice in a few days in November 2025. Typhoon Kalmaegi made a landfall across central Philippines causing flash floodings and landslides particularly in the province of Cebu, where the entire communities were washed away with a heavy death toll. It then moved towards Vietnam.

就在“卡尔马吉”过后没几天，台风“凤凰”又以185公里/小时的持续风速、最高达230公里/小时的阵风袭击菲律宾，导致140万人流离失所或紧急撤离。数日之内连遭两场重大风暴的情形，也让当地城市与区域韧性面临巨大压力。

Just days after Kalmaegi, Fung-Wong hit the Philippines with sustained winds of 185 km/h and gust up to 230 km/h, displacing 1.4 million people. This show of back-to-back major storms within days reveals the acute stress on urban and regional resilience systems.

而在不久之前，台风“桦加沙”登陆中国南部。格兰瑟姆研究所（Grantham Institute）开展的一项快速归因研究发现，气候变化使台风“桦加沙”发生的可能性提高了约49%。中国南部大约36%的损失可归因于人为变暖。变暖还让“桦加沙”的风速增强约7%，降雨量增加约12%。

Shortly before, Typhoon Ragasa stroke Southern China. A rapid-attribution study by the Grantham Institute found that climate change made Ragasa about 49% more likely, with roughly 36% of the damage in southern China attributed to anthropogenic warming. Its winds were boosted by approximately 7% and rainfall by 12% due to warming.

今年七月，巴基斯坦的季风洪灾造成逾300人死亡，超过4,000个村庄被淹没，并破坏了沿印度河的大量基础设施，包括主要道路和桥梁。

In July this year, the Pakistan Monsoon Floods, killed more than 300 people, submerged over 4,000 villages, and damaged extensive infrastructure including major roads and bridges along the Indus River.

根据2025年5月有多个机构联合发布的《气候变化与全球极端高温升级报告》（Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat）显示，在研究开展期间，全球约40亿人、占世界人口49%的人群，至少经历了30天的极端高温。在195个国家和地区，气候变化使极端高温天数至少增加了一倍。这种普遍的高温压力对城市健康、建筑设计、基础设施韧性以及绿地规划都带来了深远影响。

According to the Report on Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat (May 2025), four billion people, 49 percent of the global population, experienced at least 30 days of extreme heat during the study period. In 195 countries and territories, climate change has at least doubled the number of extreme-heat days. This pervasive heat stress carries major implications for urban health, building design, infrastructure resilience, and the planning of green spaces.

这研究还引用了“2024–2025年野火状况”数据报告（发表于期刊Earth System Science Data）指出，2024年1至3月期间，亚马孙东北部出现的极端火灾天气条件，由于人为原因，发生可能性提高了30至70倍；刚果盆地也出现了类似的模式。这些热带森林火灾事件对生物多样性、生态系统服务及碳储存造成严重破坏，并造成空气质量恶化、人口迁移以及流域系统中断等，对周边城市地区产生了影响。

The same study, referring to State of Wildfires 2024–2025 (Copernicus ESSD), notes that in northeast Amazonia, extreme fire-weather conditions during January to March 2024 were 30 to 70 times more likely due to anthropogenic climate forcing, a pattern also observed in the Congo Basin. These tropical forest fire events severely affected biodiversity, ecosystem services, and carbon storage, and they also influenced nearby urban regions through degraded air quality, population displacement, and disruptions to watershed systems.

同样令人警警惕的是2024年秋季西班牙瓦伦西亚地区出现的极端降雨——单日降水量相当于当地一整年的平均降水。随之而来的山洪暴发导致大量房屋被毁，并造成严重的人员伤亡。

Equally alarming was the extreme rainfall in Spain’s Valencia region during autumn 2024, where a single day’s precipitation equaled the annual average. The resulting flash floods caused widespread destruction of homes and significant loss of life.

近几个月接连发生的极端天气事件引发全球关注，并带来了一个非常紧迫的问题：气候变化的影响正在以何等速度加剧？正如联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）所警告的那样：

This dramatic series of extreme weather events in recent months has captured global attention and raised pressing questions about the accelerating impacts of climate change. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns,

“这些变化中有许多是前所未有的，其中一些趋势已经不可逆转；而另一些变化——例如持续的海平面上升——在未来数百年至数千年内都将‘不可逆’。” “Many of these changes are unprecedented, and some of the shifts are already in motion, while others, such as continued sea-level rise, are ‘irreversible’ for centuries to millennia.”

该机构进一步指出，除非在短期内实现对二氧化碳及其他温室气体的“快速且深度的减排”，否则《巴黎协定》的目标将难以实现。

The Panel further cautions that unless “rapid and deep reductions in CO₂ and other greenhouse-gas emissions” occur soon, the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement will slip beyond reach.

然而，随着全球持续升温、灾难性事件愈发频繁，一些曾在强大政治支持下大力推动气候行动的政府，如今似乎正逐渐与当下的挑战脱节。

Yet as the world grows hotter and catastrophic events increase, governments that once championed climate action with strong political backing appear increasingly disengaged from today’s challenges.

联合国气候变化框架公约 — 第30次缔约方大会（COP30）

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - COP 30

11月12日，世界领导人齐聚巴西帕拉州首府贝伦，出席《联合国气候变化框架公约》第30次缔约方大会（COP30）。此次会议再次将自然保护融入COP的议程之中。

On 12 November 2025, world leaders gathered in Belém, the capital of Brazil’s Pará state, for the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP 30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), reaffirming that nature conservation is now firmly embedded in the COP agenda.

然而，一个重大的地缘政治变化已然显现。中国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、土耳其和日本的领导人均未出席。最引人注目的是，美国在过去三十年里一直以最高级别参与气候进程，这一次却未派出任何高级官员。自全球气候机制启动以来，这还是首次——世界上历史累计排放量最大的国家事实上缺席了谈判桌。

A major geopolitical shift, however, was evident. Leaders from China, Russia, Australia, Indonesia, Turkey, and Japan were absent. Most strikingly, the United States, participating at the highest levels for three decades, sent no senior officials. For the first time since the global climate process began, the world’s largest historical emitter was effectively missing from the table.

特朗普政府退出了国内外多个旨在减少化石燃料使用的重要承诺。美国不仅阻止国际社会设定石油基塑料生产上限，还阻挠通过全球首个航运排放税，削弱了全球气候治理的努力。这一大幅的政策转向与私营部门在气候领域取得的显著进展形成鲜明对比；而私营部门如今正面临来自政治不确定性、财政压力以及地缘政治碎片化的日益严峻的阻力。

Under the Trump presidency, the United States has withdrawn from key commitments to curb fossil-fuel use, both domestically and internationally. It has undermined global efforts by blocking an international limit on petroleum-based plastics production and preventing adoption of the world’s first tax on shipping emissions. This policy U-turn stands in stark contrast to the remarkable climate advances of the private sector, which now confront growing headwinds from political uncertainty, fiscal constraints, and geopolitical fragmentation.

尽管面临这些障碍，气候经济仍在持续扩张。自2015年以来，涵盖太阳能光伏、风力涡轮机、电动汽车和电池等领域的全球绿色技术市场规模增长了近四倍，年规模已超过7,000亿美元，展现出商业可行性。

Despite these obstacles, the climate economy continues to expand. Since 2015, the global market for green technologies, including solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and batteries, has nearly quadrupled, surpassing $700 billion annually and demonstrating the sector’s commercial viability.

世界经济论坛“CEO气候领袖联盟”（Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders）的成员企业，年收入合计超过4万亿美元，它们在2019至2023年间整体减排12%，同时收入增长20%。然而，如果缺乏一致且连贯的政府政策，这些进展仍然脆弱且易受冲击。

Members of the World Economic Forum’s Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders, representing more than $4 trillion in revenues, collectively reduced emissions by 12 percent while increasing revenues by 20 percent between 2019 and 2023. Yet this progress remains vulnerable without coherent government policy.

巴西成为COP30东道国，有何重要意义

The Significance of Brazil as Host

在亚马孙雨林的门户贝伦举办COP30——这一地区拥有全球最大热带雨林约60%的面积——巴西传递了一个清晰的信息：自然不是气候稳定的边缘议题。

By hosting COP 30 in Belém, gateway to the Amazon rainforest, which contains roughly 60 percent of the world’s largest tropical forest, Brazil sends an unmistakable message: nature is central, not peripheral, to climate stability.

这是首次在亚马孙流域召开缔约方大会。该地区既是地球最大的碳汇之一（碳汇就是能将空气里的CO₂固定下来的地方），也是最脆弱的生态系统之一，其象征意义极为深远。亚马孙既是生物多样性的庇护所，也是全球生态健康的晴雨表。在此举办COP30，强调了环境保护、人类安全与气候治理之间深度交织、相互依存的关系。

This is the first COP ever convened in the Amazon Basin, a region that represents both one of the planet's greatest carbon sinks and one of its most fragile ecosystems. The symbolism is profound. The Amazon functions simultaneously as a sanctuary of biodiversity and a barometer of global ecological health. Holding COP 30 here underscores the deep interdependence between environmental conservation, human security, and climate governance.

亚马孙的会议地点也表明，所谓“韧性”，不仅属于森林，也关乎可持续、具备气候适应力的城市设计。正如联合国所强调的那样，COP30是检验《巴黎协定》机制能否转化为实际成果的关键节点。正如联合国秘书长古特雷斯所表示的那样：“COP30必须开启一个加速落实的十年。”

The Amazonian setting offers a powerful metaphor for resilience one that extends beyond forests to the design of sustainable, climate-adaptive cities. As the United Nations emphasizes, COP 30 represents a critical juncture for assessing whether the mechanisms of the Paris Agreement are delivering tangible results. “COP 30 must ignite a decade of acceleration and delivery.” The stakes are indeed formidable.

巴西自身的城市实践——从圣保罗的防洪管理改革，到库里提巴的可持续交通项目——展示了国家层面的承诺如何在市级推动创新行动。将全球气候谈判置于世界最大热带雨林的腹地，COP30强调了生态韧性与城市韧性之间不可分割的连续性，而这种连续性正是实现公平且可持续的全球转型所不可或缺的基础。

Brazil’s own urban experiments, from flood-management reforms in São Paulo to sustainable mobility initiatives in Curitiba, illustrate how national commitments can drive innovative action at the municipal level. By situating global climate negotiations in the heart of the world’s largest tropical forest, COP 30 reinforces the essential continuity between ecological and urban resilience, a continuity fundamental to achieving a just and sustainable global transition.

尽管《巴黎协定》曾带来强劲动力，但全球排放量迄今仍沿着一条可能突破1.5°C阈值的轨迹上升。《2023年全球盘点》（全球减缓气候变化进展的评估报告，每次评估期为两年）显示，即使各国提交的国家自主贡献（NDCs）得到全面落实，本世纪末全球升温仍将达到约2.5–2.9°C。因此，贝伦大会不仅是提升气候目标雄心的关键契机，更是通过实施、融资与问责机制，将既有承诺落到实处的关键时刻。

Despite the momentum generated by the Paris Agreement (2015), global emissions remain on a trajectory that risks surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold. The 2023 Global Stock revealed that the commitments submitted by Parties, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), would, if fully implemented, still result in an estimated 2.5–2.9 °C of warming by the end of the century. The conference in Belém therefore represents a pivotal opportunity not only to strengthen ambition but also to operationalize existing commitments through implementation, finance, and accountability mechanisms.

国家自主贡献

Nationally Determined Contributions

到2025年，各国必须提交第三代国家自主贡献（“NDCs 3.0”），作为迄今最具雄心的气候承诺。

By 2025, countries were required to submit their third generation of Nationally Determined Contributions “ NDCs 3.0’ representing their most ambitious climate pledges yet.

截至2024–2025年，已经提交新版国家自主贡献的国家。数据来源：世界资源研究所（WRI）旗下 Climate Watch 平台的 NDC Tracker

这些覆盖 2025—2035年的更新版国家自主贡献（NDCs），必须体现出与全球升温1.5°C目标相一致的显著进展。然而，推进速度一直十分缓慢。根据Climate Watch的NDC追踪器，截至中国在11月3日提交新版 NDC时，只有69个主要经济体——占全球温室气体排放量的61%——提交了相关计划。

These updated NDCs, covering the 2025-2035 period, must have demonstrated significant progression aligning with the 1.5°C temperature goal. But progress has been sluggish. According to the Climate Watch NDC Tracker,with China submitting on 3 November, only 69 major economies, representing 61% of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), have submitted these plans.

这相当于仅减少10%的排放量。要满足《巴黎协定》的要求、将升温控制在1.5°C以内，全球需要实现60%的减排。尽管如此，各国的回应依然迟缓——而这与全球绿色技术市场的迅速扩张形成鲜明对比。包括太阳能光伏、风力涡轮机、电动汽车和电池等在内的绿色技术市场自2015年以来规模增长了近四倍，年产值超过7,000亿美元，充分证明了气候经济的商业可行性。

This amount to a reduction of emissions of 10%. We would need 60% of the global community to stay within 1.5°C to meet the requirement of the Paris agreement. This sluggish response is even though the global market for green technologies, including solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and batteries (as mentioned above), has nearly quadrupled since 2015 to exceed $700 billion annually, a testament to the commercial viability of the climate economy.

COP30的期望与挑战

Expectations and Challenges for COP 30

在柏林举行首届缔约方大会后的三十年间，全球气候治理体系已从一个以外交谈判为主的论坛，演变为一个由多元主体参与的复杂治理体系。COP30正是这一转型的集中体现。在《巴黎协定》签署后的十年里，美国迅速成为全球最大的天然气生产国和出口国。

Three decades after the first COP in Berlin, the climate regime has evolved from a diplomatic negotiation forum into a complex system of multi-actor governance. COP 30 crystallizes this transformation. Over the decade since the Paris Agreement was signed, the United States rapidly become the world’s leading producer and exporter of gas.

特朗普政府不仅放弃了美国向世界作出的控制温室气体排放承诺，而且作为“反对派领袖”，施压其他国家放缓应对气候变化的努力。

The Trump administration not only abandoned America’s promises to the rest of the world that it would control the greenhouse gas, but as the opposition leader, is pressuring other countries to similarly back away from efforts to fight climate change.

各国 LNG（液化天然气）出口量。数据来源：S&P Global

与此同时，中国正加倍努力，致力于成为全球领先的“电力国家”（electrostate）以及绿色技术供应国，并在气候领域发挥引领作用。

Meanwhile, China is doubling down on its effort to become the world’s preeminent "electrostate" and supplier of green and a climate leader.

去年，中国新增的风力涡轮机和太阳能电池板装机量超过全球其他国家的总和。如今，中国在清洁能源产业中占据主导地位，从专利技术到关键原材料均具有显著优势，并正大量向全球输出相关产品。中国企业正在巴西、泰国、摩洛哥和匈牙利建设电动汽车及电池工厂。

China installed more wind turbines and solar panels last year than the rest of the world combined. It now dominates clean energy industries, from patented technologies to essential raw materials, and is selling a lot of it to the world. Chinese companies are building electric vehicle and battery factories in Brazil, Thailand, Morocco and Hungary.

长期被边缘化的全球南方国家，正通过更加积极的参与，开始在气候议程中将自身定位为“共同制定者”。本次大会也揭示了气候治理体系正在形成的新结构：权力与行动倡议不再仅由传统的西方国家所主导，而是越来越多地由新兴经济体、次国家政府以及跨国城市网络共同分担与推动。

The Global South, long peripheral in decision-making by their active presence, assert themselves as a co-author of the climate agenda. The conference also reveals an evolving architecture of climate governance. Power and initiative are no longer concentrated solely in traditional Western actors but increasingly shared among emerging economies, subnational governments, and transnational city networks.

巴西的领导作用正体现出这一转变，将全球南方从以往气候政策的被动接受者，转变为共同塑造未来规则的参与者。在COP进程中，城市、地区和原住民联盟的重要性不断提升，也展示了气候治理权力的分散化趋势——全球环境治理正向一种更加多中心的结构迈进。巴西的领导正是这一变化的缩影，努力在发展需求与生态责任之间寻求平衡。

Brazil’s leadership reflects this shift, positioning the Global South not as a passive recipient of climate policy but as a co-author of its future. The growing prominence of cities, regions, and Indigenous coalitions within the COP process also illustrates a decentralization of agency a move toward a more polycentric form of global environmental governance. Brazil’s leadership embodies this shift, seeking to reconcile developmental imperatives with ecological stewardship.

将COP30置于亚马孙雨林的象征远不止森林保护本身：它也促使人们思考如何将生态平衡、适应能力和气候正义的原则应用于城市环境。城市承载着全球一半以上的人口，并产生超过70%的温室气体排放，因而正日益被视为气候行动的前线。贝伦的讨论因此对城市政策、基础设施规划以及气候治理具有深远意义。

The symbolic power of convening COP 30 in the Amazon extends beyond forest preservation: it also invites reflection on how the principles of ecological balance, adaptation, and justice can be applied to urban environments. Cities, home to more than half of humanity and responsible for over 70 percent of greenhouse-gas emissions are increasingly recognized as critical frontlines of climate action. The discussions in Belém thus have profound implications for urban policy, infrastructure planning, and climate governance.

COP30被广泛视为对《巴黎协定》公信力以及全球政治意愿的一次关键检验。它不仅关乎技术层面的谈判，更是一场关于“信任”的较量——发生在南北之间、国家与公民之间、人类发展与生态边界之间。各方的核心期待主要集中在三个领域。

COP 30 is widely regarded as a test of the Paris Agreement’s credibility and of the world’s collective political will. Beyond technical negotiations, it embodies a contest of trust — between North and South, state and citizen, human development and ecological limits. Central expectations revolve around three domains.

首先，是目标雄心的差距。各方需在 2026 年前提交与 1.5°C 路径相一致的更新版国家自主贡献（NDCs）。COP30的成败，将取决于包括主要新兴经济体在内的大型经济体，能否在逐步淘汰化石燃料、扩大可再生能源体系方面展现出可衡量的实际进展。

First, the ambition gap. Parties are expected to submit updated NDCs aligned with the 1.5 °C pathway before 2026. The success of COP 30 will depend on whether major economies, including emerging ones, demonstrate measurable progress in phasing out fossil fuels and scaling up renewable systems.

其次，是气候融资。作为东道主，巴西希望推动承诺超越长期以来每年 1000亿美元的融资目标，并建立机制，使发展中国家和次国家层级能够直接获得资金。这一点对适应性措施尤为关键，因为在过去的气候融资结构中，适应一直相对于减缓行动严重资金不足。

Second, climate finance. Brazil, as host, seeks to expand commitments beyond the long-standing USD 100 billion annual pledge and to establish instruments that grant developing nations and subnational entities direct access to funds. This is especially crucial for adaptation, a dimension historically underfinanced relative to mitigation.

《巴黎协定》的核心原则之一，是承认各国承担的责任不同。富裕的工业化国家理应支持较贫穷国家向可再生能源转型，并帮助其应对气候变暖带来的影响。

One of the key tenets of the Paris Agreement was an acknowledgement that countries had different responsibilities. Wealthy industrialized countries were supposed to support poorer countries on transition to renewable energy and adapt to the problems brought on by a hotter climate.

去年，各国达成共识，到2035年，每年需要筹集总计1.3万亿美元，以帮助发展中国家应对气候损害，其中包括富裕国家每年提供3000亿美元的公共资金。这一规模远远超过了迄今富裕国家实际提供的水平，而这些资金将从何而来至今仍不确定。

Last year, countries agreed that a total of $1.3 trillion would be needed every year by 2035 to help developing countries manage climate harms, including $300 billion a year in public monies from rich countries. That’s far more than what rich countries have so far made available. Where that money will come from is still uncertain. Expectation concerning climate finance long recognized as the cornerstone of implementation.

巴西已明确表示，“即便缺乏美国在政治和技术上的领导力，世界也必须继续前行。”同时，它强调将推动各方承诺超越长期以来每年1000亿美元的融资目标，并建立机制，使发展中国家和地方政府能够更便捷地直接获得气候资金。

Brazil has signaled that, “The world must be moving on, even without U.S. political and technological leadership, ” and emphasis its intentions to push for expanded commitments beyond the long-standing USD 100 billion annual pledge and to establish mechanisms that facilitate direct access to finance for developing nations and local governments.

减缓与适应之间的融资紧张关系依旧突出：尽管大规模可再生能源转型能够吸引投资，但用于提升韧性、基于自然的解决方案以及“损失与损害”的资金仍然严重匮乏。

The tension between mitigation and adaptation financing remains acute: while large-scale renewable transitions attract investment, funding for resilience, nature-based solutions, and loss-and-damage remains severely under-resourced.

2019—2023年发达国家面向发展中国家的国际公共气候资金承诺。数据来源：联合国环境规划署（UNEP）

第三，是治理与公平问题。大会将直面发达国家与发展中国家在碳市场、“损失与损害”机制以及问责框架方面日益扩大的分歧。同时，大会也将检验多边主义的能力——能否容纳多元形式的领导与创新，包括来自国家政府、城市、地区及原住民联盟的多层级行动主体。

Third, governance and equity. The conference will confront widening divergences between developed and developing countries over carbon markets, loss-and-damage mechanisms, and accountability frameworks. It will also test the capacity of multilateralism to accommodate plural forms of leadership and innovation, from national governments to cities, regions, and Indigenous coalitions.

在此背景下，COP30的成果可能重新定义全球承诺如何向市级行动层层传导。对适应性融资的扩大、更明确的基于自然解决方案指标、以及对生态系统服务的认可，都将直接影响地方气候战略。以绿色基础设施、社会包容与适应性设计为核心的“韧性城市”理念，正呼应着亚马孙所体现的“人类与自然系统共生”伦理。

In this light, the outcomes of COP 30 could redefine how global commitments cascade into municipal action. Enhanced financing for adaptation, clearer metrics for nature-based solutions, and recognition of ecosystem services can directly influence local climate strategies. The principle of resilient cities integrating green infrastructure, social inclusion, and adaptive design mirrors the Amazonian ethic of coexistence between human and natural systems.

巴西的实践——如圣保罗的防洪管理、库里提巴的城市再造林，以及累西腓的参与式住房计划——展示了国家政策框架如何推动市级的创新试验。

Brazilian experiences such as flood management in São Paulo, urban reforestation in Curitiba, and participatory housing in Recife exemplify how national frameworks can foster city-level experimentation.

因此，COP30的“亚马孙视角”凸显了生态韧性与城市韧性之间的一体化连续性。它呼吁一种范式转变：可持续性不再被视为发展与环境之间的二选一，而是一种面向地球福祉与城市福祉的整体性路径。

Thus, the “Amazon lens” of COP 30 underscores the continuity between ecological and urban resilience. It invites a paradigm shift in which sustainability is no longer framed as a trade-off between development and environment, but as an integrated approach to planetary and civic well-being.

COP30将直接考验多边治理本身。自迪拜的COP28以来，发达国家与发展中国家在公平性、碳市场以及问责机制上的分歧进一步扩大。此次峰会在全球南方举行，既要调和这些裂痕，又必须维持其作为一个以科学为基础、强调公平的集体行动平台的公信力，可谓面临双重挑战。

COP 30 will test multilateral governance itself. Divergences between developed and developing countries over equity, carbon markets, and accountability mechanisms have widened since COP 28 in Dubai. As the summit unfolds in the Global South, it faces the dual challenge of mediating these divides while maintaining credibility as a science-based, equitable forum for collective action.

归根结底，COP30的真正意义，将不取决于其宣言规模的宏大，而在于它是否能够弥合关键裂痕：减缓与适应之间、生态与经济之间、全球愿景与地方现实之间的鸿沟。其成功与否，系于国际社会能否将道义上的紧迫感转化为制度性重塑，把韧性、公平与科学诚信植入全球决策的核心。从这个意义上说，COP30不仅是又一个里程碑，它更是在考验人类是否具备能力，将自身发展重新校准至地球生态边界之内的试金石。

Ultimately, COP 30’s true significance will be measured by its potential to bridge divides: between mitigation and adaptation, between ecology and economy, and between global vision and local reality and less by the scale of its declarations. Its success depends on whether the international community can transform moral urgency into institutional redesign, embedding resilience, equity, and scientific integrity at the heart of global decision-making. In this sense, COP 30 is more than another milestone; it is a test of humanity’s capacity to realign its developmental trajectory with the ecological boundaries of the Earth.

COP30的亚马孙场景将这一悖论转化为一次道义与政治的考验：它提醒人们，多边体系的有效性，衡量标准不在于宣言措辞的优美，而在于成果是否切实可见。

The Amazonian setting of COP 30 transforms this paradox into a moral and political test, a reminder that the effectiveness of the multilateral system should be judged not by the elegance of its declarations, but by the tangibility of its outcomes.

从这个意义上讲，COP30不仅仅是又一次大会；它是检验国际气候治理体系公信力的试金石，也是衡量人类能否将自身发展范式重新校准至地球承载极限之内的标尺。

In this sense, COP30 is not merely another conference; it is a litmus test for the credibility of the international climate regime and a measure of humanity’s capacity to realign its development paradigm with the limits of the planet.

梅里·马达沙希：世界需要公平的全球治理体系

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