美商家：囤货了，但是快见底了……

近日，美国各地的消费者就为了应对即将到来的关税冲击波开始囤货，据《华尔街日报》3日报道，从大学生、全职妈妈到企业高管......民众已掀起"未雨绸缪"式消费潮。

然而，不少专家认为，关税冲击下的市场情况可能会变得更糟。

US President Donald Trump's tariffs are already wreaking havoc on the supply chain, and several experts believe it could get worse.

据《商业内幕》（Business Insider）报道，接受采访的九位供应链研究员、航运业内部人士和物流专家一致认为，未来几周美国消费者将面临商品价格飙升、货架空空如也的局面，部分品类甚至可能提前断货。其中有专家表示，若形势延续至年底，美国国内失业率可能上升、全球市场动荡及地缘政治紧张或将加剧。

Business Insider spoke with nine supply chain researchers, shipping industry insiders, and logistics specialists about the timeline for when consumers might expect to see the most significant effects of Trump's aggressive trade policy, should he maintain his current strategy. They agreed that, in the coming weeks, Americans can expect major disruptions to the prices and availability of goods — store shelves may be emptier, prices will rise, and some products will run out sooner than others. And if things continue on the current trajectory, four of them said, by the end of the year, those effects could be compounded, leading to higher domestic unemployment rates, global market instability, and increased geopolitical tensions.

航运量暴跌预示供应链危机

自特朗普关税政策生效以来的几周里，海运货物的订舱量大幅下降。

Bookings of ocean freight shipments have been down significantly in the weeks since Trump's sweeping tariffs took effect.

图源：外媒

据《商业内幕》报道，数字物流公司Vizion的数据显示，自特朗普4月2日宣布全面加征关税后，全球海运集装箱预订量一周内暴跌近50%。与前一周相比，美国的进口量下降了64%，自中国进口的货物减少了36%，出口量也下滑了30%。

During the first week of April, following Trump's initial April 2 tariff announcement, ocean freight container bookings saw a sharp global decline of nearly 50 percent, according to data from the digital logistics company, Vizion. Specifically, imports into the US fell 64 percent compared to the previous week, including imports from China to the US, which dropped 36 percent. Exports out of the US also dropped 30 percent, according to Vizion data.

尽管特朗普于4月9日宣布对多国加征关税暂缓90天，但针对所有国家的10%基准关税及对华145%的高关税仍未解除。

供应链高管、法拉利咨询研究集团董事总经理鲍勃·法拉利在谈到航运量的变化时表示，“现有体系和企业均无法应对如此深远的影响。”

"This is a big deal," Bob Ferrari, a supply chain executive and managing director of the Ferrari Consulting and Research Group, told Business Insider of the changes in shipping volume. "It has a lot of ramifications because it's something that the system is not equipped to deal with, and businesses are not equipped to deal with. It has a lot of far-reaching implications."

企业库存即将耗尽

《商业内幕》报道称，多位供应链专家透露，鉴于特朗普在第一个任期内对包括墨西哥、加拿大和中国在内的国家和地区实施的关税政策，早在其第二任期开始前，许多公司已通过提前储备货物库存来应对潜在的关税风险。

Before Trump took office, let alone announced or implemented his tariffs plan, many major companies brought in extra inventory of products to the US in an attempt to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs, multiple supply chain experts told Business Insider. Trump implemented tariffs on countries including Mexico, Canada, and China during his first term and made tariffs a central part of his reelection campaign. But that buffer will run out — and soon.

然而，库存逐渐见底，缓冲期即将结束。

加州大学洛杉矶分校全球供应链管理教授克里斯·唐表示，由于目前美国对中国的关税高达145%，许多公司被迫取消了新库存货物的运输订单。库存即将见底，一旦售罄，消费者只能面对涨价或无货可买。”

With the tariffs against China currently at 145%, many companies have been forced to cancel their shipments of new stock and are in a holding pattern trying to wait out Trump's 90-day tariff pause to see what changes come next before placing big orders, Chris Tang, a University of California, Los Angeles professor who's an expert in global supply chain management and the impact of regulatory policies, told Business Insider. "Right now, they're canceling orders, so the inventory will be running low, " Tang said of businesses. "And once they sell off this inventory, then it's either higher prices or no products."

2025年3月12日，美国纽约一家超市顾客选购商品。图源：视觉中国

《商业内幕》报道，货运代理公司Flexport的创始人兼首席执行官瑞安·彼得森表示，如果特朗普能及时达成协议降低关税，在库存完全耗尽之前恢复航运订舱量，那对美国消费者的影响将降到最低。但如果没有及时达成协议，那么商品将出现史无前例的严重短缺。

Ryan Petersen, the founder and CEO of Flexport, told Business Insider that if Trump makes a deal to lower the tariffs in time to bring back shipping bookings before inventory completely runs out, there will be minimal impact on consumers. "But if there's no deal, then yes, there will be big shortages," Petersen said. "Probably worse than anything we've seen in our lifetimes."

“牛鞭效应”加剧供需失衡

据《商业内幕》报道，法拉利表示，一旦商品短缺，利润较低的玩具、服装、节日商品及家居用品可能首当其冲涨价，消费者最早5月至6月就会感受到价格上涨。随后，家电和电子产品或于7月至8月迎来第二轮涨价及短缺。

If the shortages start, further price hikes would be close behind, Ferrari said. Low-margin products that companies don't make a lot of money from — like toys, apparel, holiday items, and home goods — could see shortages and price hikes sooner than others, Ferrari said. The exact date when Americans could start seeing the effects of those product shortages depends on how much pre-inventory companies have loaded up, Ferrari said, but added that consumers could see some price hikes as early as May or June. Appliances and electronics could see the next round of price hikes and possible shortages starting in July or August, Ferrari said.

当地时间4月2日 有美国民众抢购到中国品牌电视机

南加州大学马歇尔商学院兰德尔·R·肯德里克全球供应链研究所的创始主任尼克·维亚斯表示，价格上涨可能会降低消费者在主要消费季节的购买意愿，从而加剧对经济的负面影响，形成“牛鞭效应”（bullwhip effect）：家庭预算因通货膨胀被迫缩减，需求下降将导致供应链积压货物无人问津，进而引发供需失衡。

Higher prices could then decrease consumer buying habits through major spending seasons, exacerbating the negative effects on the economy, Nick Vyas, the founding director of USC Marshall's Randall R. Kendrick Global Supply Chain Institute, told Business Insider. If consumers choose not to go out and spend money due to increased prices, demand decreases, Vyas said. Then, when all the backlogged supply that had been deferred and delayed in hopes that the trade environment would stabilize hits the market, there'll be no one interested in buying it. "All of a sudden, now you have an imbalance between supply and demand," Vyas said.

“美国消费者终将沦为政策的牺牲品”

《商业内幕》报道，四位供应链分析师指出，若中美无法达成降低关税的贸易协议，达成贸易协议所需的时间越长，普通美国人面临的情况可能就会越糟糕。

The longer it takes to work out a trade deal with China that lowers tariffs, the worse things could get for everyday Americans four supply chain analysts told Business Insider.

持续的贸易战也有可能损害美国企业。“美国公司在进口这些商品，如果他们不得不取消订舱，他们的业务将遭受重创，”彼得森说。

A continued trade war also has the potential to hurt US businesses."American companies are importing these goods, and if they have to cancel their bookings, their business is really suffering," Petersen said.

这意味着中小企业可能会永久关闭，零售、航运和物流行业可能会失去数十万个工作岗位。

That means small and medium-sized businesses could close up shop for good, and hundreds of thousands of jobs could be lost across the retail, shipping, and logistics industries.

耶鲁大学预算实验室4月15日估算，若特朗普关税策略持续，2025年底美国失业率或上升0.6个百分点，减少77万个就业岗位。

The Budget Lab at Yale on April 15 estimated that, if Trump's tariff strategy continues without deals, the US unemployment rate could increase by 0.6 percentage points by the end of 2025, and there could be 770,000 fewer people on payrolls.

尽管形势严峻，部分专家仍对90天的关税“暂停期”达成协议抱有期待。维瓦斯乐观地认为特朗普会利用这90天与包括中国在内的许多国家达成协议，降低关税税率，避免可能出现的最坏结果。

Vyas said he's optimistic that Trump will use the 90-day pause to strike a deal with many countries, including China, to lower their tariff rate and avoid the worst of the possible outcomes.

编辑：黎霈融

来源：Business Insider

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