对话李成：中国在消费降级？我不这样认为

编者按：近日，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长王文、香港大学当代中国与世界研究中心创始主任李成受邀做客CGTN《论见中国》栏目 。英籍资深时政编辑John Goodrich、CGTN社交媒体专家李菁菁担任对话主持人。现将第二期节目（ ）对话中英文视频及内容发布如下。 （全文中英文约6600字，预计阅读时间12分钟）

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John Goodrich：我想我们现在可以进入第二个话题，也是您二位刚刚提到的中国的消费问题。话题二是：中国是否正经历消费降级？

消费问题在中国已经是一个讨论了很长时间的热门话题。外界一直认为，中国的消费疲软，特别是与发达国家的消费占GDP比例相比。有两个例子：一个是《日经亚洲》的报道，称大多数中国人对消费降级感到不安；另一个来自《南华早报》，指出中国中产阶级因房地产低迷冲击个人财务状况而倍感压力。在去年的中央经济工作会议和上周三刚刚发布的政府工作报告中，扩大内需均被列为重点任务。此外还制定了提高可支配收入的计划和目标。

李教授，您能否谈谈当前中国消费水平问题的严重程度？这一问题是否真的至关重要？如果是的话，已采取了哪些具体措施来提升消费水平？

李成：当然，刺激中国消费一直是一个重要的话题。但我对“消费降级”这个表述持有异议。我认为这是一个非常有问题的词。它似乎在暗示，像旅游，当前民众选择更实惠或理性的消费模式，相较于过去以房地产热潮为主导的消费形态而言，是一种降级。因此我们不禁要问：这种对比是否客观？还是可行和可取的？就像每个家庭购买许多房产一样，我认为那本身就是疯狂或危险的。

基于此，我主张用消费“调整”或消费“常态”替代所谓的消费降级，即回归消费常态。现在，有一个关于旅游业的话题。你知道，人们正在全国各地旅行。王文院长刚刚提到过，这非常有趣。去年和今年春节，国内旅游人数接近5亿人次——这是美国人口的1.5倍多，而这仅仅都在一周或几周内发生的。中国的旅游业非常有活力。因此，如果这种活力持续下去，中国的消费将会更加强劲地反弹。

此外，消费变得更加多样化。一方面，减少以前将80%或70%的资金投入房地产的危险模式，这是非常危险的，需要加以改正。 另一方面，人们开始投资于不同的领域。我认为更关键的是，探索如何让发展模式优先实现多样化。因此，看到中国从城市居民到农村居民都拥有了差异化的消费选择，我认为这是很好的趋势。

当然，我们期待消费率能持续提升，中国的储蓄率不要保持那么高。并非要抑制消费，而是要避免将所有资金过度投入到房地产。这种趋势已经出现，我认为这是良性的发展。

John Goodrich：李教授提到消费趋势正在经历一种积极的结构性调整，王教授，您是否认同这一判断？您认为消费领域还存在哪些潜在挑战？因为它已经在GDP的40%到45%之间停滞了一段时间。正如我之前提到的，这比发达国家要低。您能解释一下为什么会这样，以及这种情况可能会如何随着时间而改变吗？

王文：我同意所谓的“消费降级”是一个带有很强意识形态色彩的经济学术语。比如，我给你举个例子。过去，我非常喜欢开车，认为私家车是身份和地位的象征，尽管每天都很拥堵。但我必须开车，保养我的车，还要花很多钱。但现在说实话，我不喜欢开车了，因为公共交通系统不断完善，滴滴打车也很方便。所以，选择乘地铁或公交出行既环保又经济，我花的钱也更少。那么，这是不是所谓的消费降级呢？不，我不这样认为。这不是所谓的消费降级，而是理性消费或消费理性。

刚刚，李教授也谈到了消费常态化。我觉得这也可以理解为，我的生活方式比以前更加正常了。关于你提到的数据，2024年中国的总消费额为48万亿元，比上一年增长了3.5%。

某些消费增长得非常快，远超其他领域。例如，正如李教授和我多次提到的，旅游消费增长了70%。这表明中国人开始享受生活了。

当然，我们也知道，中国的房地产消费确实相对较低，但中国人拥有房产或公寓的比例是世界上最高的。你不可能一直买房或者买车。而且另一方面，汽车市场仍在增长，绿色消费、科技消费、文化和旅游消费——我刚才提到的这些都在增长。

因此，我同意李成教授所说的。与其说中国在消费降级，不如说中国正在转变消费模式，或者说正在消费转型更为准确。这些就是我的观点。

对话英文版原文

John Goodrich:I think we can move on to our second topic now, which is something both of you have mentioned in passing—the consumption in China.So, the second topic is: Is China experiencing a consumption downgrade?

Consumption has been a hot topic for quite a long time in China.There have been suggestions from outside that consumption was weak, particularly in relation to developed nations as a percentage of GDP.

We’ve got some examples here: one from Nikkei Asia. Most Chinese feel an uneasy consumption downgrade. And another from the South China Morning Post. China's middle class feels squeezed as the property slump hits pocketbooks.

So boosting domestic demand was highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference last year and also in the Government Work Report just last Wednesday.

And there are plans and targets to raise disposable income as well.

So, Professor Li, can you tell us how big an issue consumption levels are in China?Is it really important? And if so, what measures have been taken to try and improve levels?

Li Cheng:Of course, stimulating Chinese consumption is always an important subject.

But I have a problem with the term “consumption downgrade”. I think that is very very highly problematic. It seems to suggest that, like tourism, more affordable or rational consumption nowadays is a downgrade compared with the previous consumption pattern, which heavily emphasized real estate fever.

So, we may ask ourselves, is that realistic, or is that feasible and desirable?

Only just like each family to buy numerous housing units, I think this is, itself is crazy or dangerous.

So, I would say that the so-called consumption degrade should be changed to consumption “adjustment” or consumption “normalcy”. Return to consumption normalcy.

Now, one thing is about tourism. You know, people are traveling around the country, Wang Wen just mentioned that, it’s really fascinating.

Last and this Spring Festival, domestic travelling, total number reached almost 500 million people—this is more than one and a half times the U.S. population, all within one week or couple weeks move around.

That's very very dynamic. So, if this dynamic continues, China's consumption will even more seriously bounce back.

Also, that consumption became more diversified.

On one part, reducing the previous dangerous pattern of putting money 80 percent, 70 percent into property. This is extremely dangerous and needs to be fixed.

Now, people are investing in different things. I think the more important thing is to find different ways for other development to take priority.

So, I think it's a welcome development to see Chinese urban dwellers, or even rural dwellers, having different ways to consume.

Of course, we hope that the consumption rate will continue to increase, and China's saving rate will not maintain that high. But the confidence or development should be avoiding put all the money in the real estate. So, this is happening, and I think it’s a healthy development.

John Goodrich：Professor Li says there’s a readjustmentin a positive one in terms of consumption trends. Professor Wang, do you think that’s the case, and can you see any other areas where consumption can be more of a challenge? Because it’s been stuck at 40% to 45% of GDP ratio for a little bit. As I mentioned earlier, it’s much less than developed countries. Can you say why that might be and how that might change over time?

Wang Wen:Well, I agree that the so-called 'consumption downgrade' is a very ideological term in economics. For example, I tell you a story. In the past, I used to love driving and thought that a private car was a symbol of identity and status, even if it was congested every day. But I have to drive, and maintain my car, and pay a lot of money. But now, to be honest, I don’t like driving because the public transportation system is constantly improving, and taking a car from Didi is also very convenient.

So choosing to travel by subway or bus is both environmentally friendly and economical, and I pay less. So, is it so-called consumption downgrade? No, I don’t think so. It’s not called consumption downgrade, but rather rational consumption or consumption rationality.

Right now, Professor Li is talking about consumption normalization. I think this is also my lifestyle becoming much normal than before. And about the database you’ve mentioned, in 2024, China’s total consumption was 48 trillion yuan, and increase of 3.5% of the previous year.

Some consumption grew very fast, much faster than other dimensions. For example, right now, Professor Li mentioned and also I mentioned many times, tourism consumption increased by 70 percent. This shows that Chinese people begin to enjoy life.

And also, of course, we know that China’s real estate consumption is indeed relatively low, but the portion of Chinese own houses or apartments is the highest in the world. You can not always buy a house or buy a car.

However, on the other hand, the automotive market is still growing with green consumption, technology consumption, and cultural tourism consumption—all of which I just mentioned are on the rise.

So, I agree with Professor Li Cheng right now said. Instead of saying that China is downgrading consumption, it is more accurate to say that China is transforming consumption, or consumption transformation. So, these are my points.

重要！重要！重要！

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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