世界银行前行长佐利克：中国成就令人惊叹，中美应竭力避免误判、寻求共同点

3月，世界银行前行长、美国前副国务卿罗伯特·B·佐利克 （Robert B. Zoellick）来华交流，其新著《论美国：美国外交及外交政策史》中文版同期在中国出版发行。在上海，佐利克接受了中国日报深度访谈，畅谈外交见解，回顾中国在经济与科技领域的转型历程，并深入探讨中美关系中的关键议题。

以下是访谈摘录：

中国日报：您写的《论美国：美国外交及外交政策史》中文版3月已在中国出版发行。请问您写这本书的灵感从何而来？

佐利克：我想与年轻一代分享我的经验，关于如何思考历史和解决问题。亨利·基辛格在上世纪九十年代写了一本名为《大外交》的书，他主要参考了欧洲的经验，而我想尝试从美国的经验中汲取一些启示。我认为让历史生动起来的方式是讲述故事和人物。每一章都聚焦于一个人或一群人以及他们试图解决的问题。我认为这本书在某种程度上与众不同，部分原因在于我的背景经历。除了安全问题，书中还涉及财政问题、贸易问题和技术问题。当把这些综合在一起时，我坚信外交是一门艺术，而不是一门科学。在书中，你可以学到很多关于调解、谈判、演讲运用、倡导等方面的策略技巧。因此，我认为这本书可以让你对外交的实践有更深入的了解，跨越文化的界限。

I wanted to share my experience with younger generations about how to think about history and problem-solving. As you probably know, (former US secretary of state) Henry Kissinger wrote a book titled Diplomacy in the 1990s, but Kissinger drew primarily from the European experience. So, I wanted to try to draw from some of the American experiences.

I think the way you bring history to life is to talk about stories and people. So, as you know, each of the chapters focuses on a person or a group of people and a problem they're trying to solve.

In addition to security issues, you've got financial issues, trade issues, and technology issues. And when you wrap them all together, I have a strong belief that diplomacy is an art, not a science.

中国日报：1980年，您首次来到中国，那时正值中国推行改革开放政策之初。您如何看中国在过去40多年里所经历的经济和社会转型？

佐利克：我很高兴那时有机会访问中国。我们参观了一个城市，我只记得那里的砖块和每个人身着蓝色和灰色衣服，但这给了我一个视觉参照点。在接下来的几十年里，我看到了中国发生的巨大变化，我一直被中国的变化所吸引。在世界银行任职的时候，除了去北京或上海，我还尝试走访中国的其他地区和城市。我的主要感受是这是一群多么勤劳的人民，他们想要创造更好的生活，让我非常尊重和钦佩。因此，对我来说，尽管在历史、文化和政治上存在分歧，我们如何基于共同优势去寻找共同点，避免麻烦并建立共同的优势。这次中国行我也会去深圳，我想深圳看起来将与我在1980年看到的完全不同。短短几十年，你看到人们从贫困和身着单调的服装变成了你现在周围看到的样子，这真是巨大的变化，令人惊叹。

I'm so pleased I had a chance to visit China. I was here for only a day. My wife and I were in Macao where we got the one-day sort of visitations. We visited a communal farm. We visited a city that I just remember having cinder blocks and everybody being dressed in blue and gray. But it gave me a visual reference point.

So, when I visited China over the following years, I saw a huge transformation. This is a historic change. This is a huge change. And, obviously, it lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. It created great opportunity.

I've always been fascinated by the transformation of China. At heart, what I have felt most strongly is that when I was with the World Bank, in addition to going to Beijing or Shanghai, I tried to visit other parts of the country. My main takeaway was that the Chinese (people) were very hard-working people who wanted to create a better life, and that's something you have to respect and admire. So, for me, my purpose is that while you have differences in history, culture, and politics, how can we find the common ground to steer away from trouble and build on the common advantages?

I've a lot of respect for what China has accomplished. Within one lifetime, you saw people move from impoverished conditions and sort of just drab clothing to what you see around you. It's a huge transformation. It's amazing.

中国日报：中国和美国如何建立积极的关系？

佐利克：中国和美国是世界上最重要的两个国家, 我们不希望看到两国发生冲突，我们需要竭力避免误判。有时，人们会因为错误假设而陷入麻烦，随着时间的推移，这些事件可能会变糟。显然，双方希望努力重建信任，并找到在经济、气候、大流行病或其他问题上的共同点。因此，问题的关键在于是否找到双赢的合作机会。我希望事情都朝着积极的方向发展。

You've got the two most important countries in the world. You don't want them to clash. You want to try to do things to avoid miscalculations. Sometimes people get into trouble by assuming things or accidents that can expand and turn worse over time. You obviously want to try to rebuild some of the trust and find the commonalities of issues, whether economy, climate, pandemics, or others.

So the question is whether there are opportunities for some win-win cooperation there. I hope they move in the positive direction.

中国日报：中国实施的创新驱动发展战略对世界意味着什么？

佐利克：我期待中美两国共同引领人工智能行业发展。DeepSeek的成功并非单纯的中美竞争，更多体现了人工智能的新阶段。去年，所有的讨论都集中在构建非常昂贵的大模型上，这些大型语言模型不仅资本投入多，而且能源密集。因此，我认为DeepSeek不仅对中国，对其他国家也标志着一个阶段性的转变。技术正在从赋能向适应转变。DeepSeek是一个开放系统，它说明人们可以以更低成本去研发。尽管中美拥有各自的系统，但观念传播是跨越国界的，而且具有变革性。

In the artificial intelligence field, I expect the US and China to remain leaders. The success of DeepSeek to me is interesting, not so much in China-US competition as in a new phase of AI. And what I mean by that is last year, all the discussion was on building these very expensive large language models. Very capital intensive, very energy intensive. So, it was an investment in the enabling of technology.

DeepSeek, I think, represents a phase shift not just for China but for others (as well) and the idea that technology is moving from "the enabling" to "the adapting". How do you provide uses for this? So DeepSeek is an open system, but it's also showing how you can develop, sort of, methods in a lower-cost way.

While the US and China might have somewhat separate systems, the ideas travel across borders, and they will still be transformative.

中国日报：关税和贸易壁垒仍然是全球化的主要挑战。您认为有哪些有效的方法可以减少中美之间的贸易摩擦？

佐利克：我不支持加征关税政策。如果你问关税或壁垒的影响是什么，影响就是它会提高成本、降低生产率。无论中国还是美国，皆受其累。因此，这绝非仅是中美两国之间的问题。美国也正对加拿大和墨西哥征加关税，这也会伤害北美的汽车产业。因此，我不认为这些是正确的政策。但有时，关税被用作谈判的一部分。特朗普可能将关税作为一种施压他国的手段。对于中国，他通过加征关税，试图在芬太尼、药品等问题上向中国施加压力。我只能说他是从一个交易商的视角看待世界。

I'm not a fan of tariffs. If you ask what's the effect of tariffs or barriers, the effect is they raise costs and lower productivity. Whether it's China or whether it's the US. So, it's not just China and the US. The US is doing this with Canada and Mexico. It will also hurt the auto industry in North America. I don't think those are the right policies, but sometimes tariffs are used as part of a negotiation.

Maybe part of Trump's purpose is to get other countries to do various things. With China, he's talked about using tariffs to create pressure on the fentanyl and the drug issue. All I can say is he sees the world through the lens of a dealmaker.

中国日报：为什么美国不能增加对中国的技术出口？

佐利克：在我看来, 出口管制或许在短期内能起到一定的作用，但无法阻止别人发展。

所以，如果美国限制半导体出口，可能是出于安全目的。但不要自欺欺人，中国将在几年内研发出来。因此，我想说的是，我理解某些出口管制的逻辑。但另一方面，它也存在危险，因为它将产生不同的体系，而这正是我们现在正在应对的时代。

Export controls in my view can buy you a few years, but they won't stop somebody (from developing). You can't stop the development. So, if the US limits semiconductors (export), that may serve a security purpose. But don't fool yourself. China will develop it in a few years.

What I'm trying to explain is I understand the logic for some export controls, but on the other hand, there is a danger because what it will do is (that) it will produce separate systems, and that's the era that we're now dealing with.

中国日报：您如何看待中国的发展和崛起？

佐利克：中国发展得如此之快。许多中国人仍然说，“嗯，我们是一个贫穷的发展中国家”。但世界一些地区将中国视为强大的巨人，当你是强大的巨人时，你必须考虑你将如何被看待。我希望我们能够找到共同基础，不仅美国和中国，还有日本、韩国、澳大利亚、菲律宾和欧洲，以此建立一个更协作的工作框架。

China has grown so quickly. Many Chinese people still say, "well, we are a poor developing country". But the rest of the world sees China as a powerful giant, and when you're a powerful giant, one has to give thought to how you will be perceived. My hope is that we can continue to find a basis where not only the US and China but also Japan and South Korea, Australia and the Philippines and Europe will create a more cooperative working basis.

出品人：邢志刚

总监制：姚英 柯荣谊

统筹：张春燕 朱萍

记者：宋薇

视频：郑朱翎

联络：刘建娜

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