最航运 | 如何看待美东罢工结束？各方汇总与9月美线排名！

1/ 我是最航运丹尼斯，续昨推送第4点 和 二个月前第5点推演，观点不变可回看
今天汇总船公司，货代，港口以及分析师各方如何看待美东罢工三天结束后的评论。

2/ 针对美东地区罢工在短短三天内迅速结束的情况，阳明海运船公司总经理白崑榮提醒公众，美东劳资双方已将当前合约延长至2025年1月15日。尽管如此，仍需密切关注谈判的进展。明年1月中旬之前能否达成新合约，关键在于“禁止自动化”议题的讨论。

3/ 货代台骅评估认为，为期三天的罢工对美国东岸港口的装卸作业造成的延误和混乱相对有限，预计在一到两周内即可消化罢工带来的影响。此次罢工恰逢美国总统大选前一个月，为了确保民主党的选票，拜登政府积极介入协调，促使航运公司和工会代表各让一步，就加薪问题达成初步共识，而将更为复杂的码头自动化议题推迟至明年1月15日再做决定。届时，美国将产生新一任总统，未来局势如何演变，仍需进一步观察。

4/ 美国东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸的港口对罢工后的顺利重新开放充满信心。各港口预计，在周四达成的初步协议结束了为期三天的码头工人罢工后，周五早晨货物流动将大体顺利恢复。港口领导人表示，他们拥有备用容量，并预计在处理超过60艘船的积压货物时，干扰将降至最低。由于对10月1日罢工的担忧，港口货物量有所减少，且罢工持续时间较短，因此恢复到正常流动性只需几天而非几周。纽约和新泽西港务局港口主任Bethann Rooney淡化了罢工对东海岸最繁忙港口的影响，指出该港口在冬季常因雪关闭两到三天。Rooney表示：“关闭后，我们能够非常迅速地恢复，通常不需要一周来弥补每一天的关闭。”纽约-新泽西港口的海上和地面集装箱积压总量约相当于港口一周的货物量，预计到下周末，19艘船的积压将被清理，同时服务仍在持续前往港口。南部的佐治亚港务局发言人Tom Boyd表示，萨凡纳港目前没有卡车排队等候，装卸作业也没有延误，该港口周末仍在开放。巴尔的摩港的官员们将此次停工对运营的影响与冬季天气导致的中断进行了比较，马里兰州港口管理局已延长工作时间以处理积压货物，并表示延迟的船只正在迅速纳入时间表。弗吉尼亚港则表示已开放预订系统，预计在24小时内恢复正常运营，多个运营环节将并行启动。

5/ 北美第三方物流 C.H. Robinson给出了它的客户咨询建议：
美国的港口罢工已结束，但影响远未消除。一周的中断通常会导致港口至少一个月的延误，且随着货物向内陆运输，延误情况将进一步加剧。以下是港口重新开放后物流市场的关键点：
- 美国西海岸、加拿大门户港以及非国际码头工人协会（ILA）港口等应急路线面临拥堵，洛杉矶和长滩港口的一些船只滞留时间长达30天，西海岸铁路运输在某些情况下出现超过两周的延误，预计高流量港口发出的延误将持续数月。
- 在东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸，几艘船在锚地或公海上等待靠泊，随着罢工前无法离港的集装箱积压，船只聚集和港口拥堵将加剧。
- 收回和收集被迫卸载在不同港口位置的集装箱可能会进一步占用船只，并增加对内陆运输设备的压力。
- 以往经验表明，当港口拥堵和滞留时间增加时，设备被占用的时间会延长，设备供应减少，费用也随之上升。
- 此外，美国东南部仍在从飓风海伦的影响中恢复，尽管受影响地区的卡车容量目前保持稳定可用，但西海岸的货车供需比正在上升。
- 随着铁路延误持续，对卡车和转运服务的需求预计将继续增加。随着市场恢复，航空货运和加急小批量拼箱（LCL）服务可能仍将优先用于重要货物运输。

6/ 运价平台Xeneta的评论 2024年10月4日
- 美国东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸的港口罢工于昨晚（周四）结束，因达成了初步的工资协议，但仍有40多艘船舶在等待卸载数十亿美元的货物，问题尚未完全解决。这次罢工持续了三天，截至今天（周五）美国东部时间凌晨5点，有44艘船在排队进入受影响的港口，另有120多艘船正在途中（来源：Xeneta和Kuehne+Nagel）。
- Xeneta的首席分析师彼得·桑德表示：“这种规模的长期危机将对全球供应链产生严重影响，因此市场暂时松了一口气。”他指出，即使仅仅三天，关闭美国东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸的所有港口也会带来严重后果。“我们需要观察返回工作的工人能否快速处理积压的数十亿美元货物的船只。”桑德认为，罢工的连锁效应将在未来几周内波及全球供应链，许多延误的船只将晚些时候返回远东，这将影响到年底的运输计划，甚至可能影响到2025年1月底的农历新年高峰期。他补充说：“你不能错过一艘装载15,000个集装箱的船只的每周计划航行，而不对船公司和进口商产生影响。”
- 罢工已直接导致运费上涨，托运人受到影响。截至10月4日，从北欧至美国东海岸最受影响的航线，平均即期运价为每40英尺集装箱2,900美元，自8月底以来上涨了58%。北欧至美国西海岸的替代航线也受到影响，同期平均即期运价上涨了48%，达到每40英尺集装箱4,450美元。
- 桑德警告称，未来几周和几个月市场仍将面临挑战，特别是由于红海地区的冲突，远东其他主要航线的市场依然高企，而跨大西洋航线的运费上涨已对托运人造成财务压力。他表示：“罢工结束是个好消息，但托运人尚未摆脱困境，目前仅达成了一项初步协议，而港口自动化仍是主要障碍。”桑德强调，自动化问题在过去一年的谈判中一直未能解决，现在只有100天的时间达成协议，否则可能会出现新的罢工行动。

7/ 9月中国-美国NVOCC货代按货量排名前300强新鲜出炉，未经授权，请勿搬运 。

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