新冠感染病例数“抬头”，专家：不必过于紧张担心

中国疾控中心发布上月全国新型冠状病毒感染疫情情况显示，全国范围内流感样病例新冠病毒阳性率有所上升，从7月1日-7月7日的8.9%持续上升至7月22日-7月28日的18.7%。主要流行株为奥密克戎变异株，我国主要以JN.1系列变异株和XDV系列变异株为主。

The positivity rate of COVID-19 in China, during the seven-day period ending on July 28, was 18.7 percent, which is more than double from early July. The dominant strains were JN.1 and XDV — both being offshoots of the Omicron variant, according to the data released recently by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

图源：路透社

但与此同时，全国发热门诊（诊室）诊疗量在七月小幅波动下降，总体流感样病例占门（急）诊就诊人数比例也小幅下降。新冠引起的重症和死亡人数也未见明显上升。

But at the same time, the cumulative number of visits to fever clinics and the ratio of visits with influenza-like illnesses across hospitals had showed a decline in July. There was also no marked increase in the number of COVID-19-related severe cases and deaths.

根据国家传染病医学中心监测数据显示，在14岁以下的青少年儿童患者中，肺炎支原体和新型冠状病毒目前为阳性率最高的病原体。在14岁以上的患者中，新型冠状病毒阳性率最高，其他依次是肺炎支原体、流感嗜血杆菌等呼吸道病原体。

Surveillance data released by National Medical Center for Infectious Diseases shows that mycoplasma pneumoniae is the most common respiratory infection among teenagers and children aged 14 and under, followed by the novel coronavirus, the most common among those aged above 14.

华山感染公众号发文表示，“这些数据提示，夏季流感等病毒感染占比下降，新型冠状病毒感染人数有上升，占比升高。”

Data suggests that while influenza flu cases and other viral infections are on the decline this summer, the number of COVID-19 infections are rising, said the Center for Infectious Diseases at the Shanghai-based Huashan Hospital of Fudan University.

新冠病例数上升也引起了世卫组织的注意。

8月6日，世界卫生组织在记者会上分析了目前全球的新冠疫情形势：

1. The rate of positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 has been rising over several weeks. The test positivity is above 10 percent on average while in Europe it is above 20 percent.

新冠病毒检测呈阳性的百分比在过去几周里一直在上升。总体而言，检测呈阳性的比例超过了 10%。在欧洲，阳性率超过 20%。

2. New waves of infection have been registered in the Americas, Europe and the Western Pacific.

美洲、欧洲和西太平洋地区都出现了新的感染潮。

3. Wastewater surveillance suggests the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 is from two to 20 times, higher than current figures suggest.

废水监测表明，新冠病毒的流行比目前的数字高出2到20倍。

世卫组织的玛丽亚·范·克尔科夫说道：“新冠病毒仍然挥之不去，在所有国家传播。”

世卫组织表示，短期内，新冠病毒感染上升的趋势不会改善，并且，更严重的病毒变种可能会出现。

图源：路透社

那我们需要担心又一波新冠疫情高峰吗？

国家传染病医学中心主任、复旦大学附属华山医院感染科主任张文宏发文表示，全球新型冠状病毒感染都进入类似的波动性区间。

以美国为例，其自2023年8月至今发生了3次新冠流行，基本以5-6月为一周期交替，而流行的主要原因为毒株的变异（2023年底JN.1，近期KP.3）和阶段性免疫屏障衰减的交叉混合导致。

Zhang Wenhong, head of the Center for Infectious Diseases at the Shanghai-based Huashan Hospital of Fudan University, said that COVID-19 infections have seen similar fluctuation globally. “The United States, for example, has experienced three waves of COVID-19 infection since August last year, which follows a repeated cycle of every five to six months.”

周期性波动特点与毒株变异以及阶段性免疫屏障强度波动相关。根据目前对2023年5月、8月和2024年2月起的三次新冠波动流行监测结果可见，因毒株的不断变异和免疫屏障的阶段性衰减，新型冠状病毒已与流行性感冒等呼吸道传染性疾病类似，逐渐成为我国阶段性流行的呼吸道疾病，但其疾病的严重程度已维持较为稳定的状态。

目前，此次出现的新型冠状病毒感染，在7月处于上升阶段，但根据整体趋势显示，此次感染整体就诊人数相较于去年秋冬季高峰还较低，不会对当前的医疗资源和人群造成严重的疾病负担。

He said that the COVID-19 has evolved to become a periodic respiratory disease similar to influenza flu, and the severity of symptoms are stable. “Although COVID-19 infections had been rising last month, the total number of hospital visits were lower than the peak seen during the past autumn and winter seasons. So, the increase will neither strain healthcare resources nor impose a heavy disease burden,” he added.

对于普通公众来说，专家建议采取适当的健康防护措施。

中国疾病预防控制中心研究员王丽萍表示，夏秋交替，天气变化不定，人体的呼吸系统是最容易受到侵袭，所以像我们身边的老年人、儿童、体弱者、营养不良的以及一些慢性基础性疾病的患者，容易在这个时节感染包括流感在内的一些呼吸道传染病。

Wang Liping, a researcher at the China CDC, said that the elderly, children, people with weakened immunity and insufficient nutrition and patients with chronic diseases should be particularly cautious against respiratory illnesses this summer.

针对这种情况，王丽萍表示，公众首先要树立自己是健康第一责任人的理念，要保持健康的生活方式，养成良好的卫生习惯，增强体质，提高抵抗力，这是我们保持健康的王道。

其次，公众应该掌握健康技能，根据温度的变化，及时调整衣物；还要积极接种疫苗，像流感、肺炎疫苗等等，这种疫苗能够起到有效保护作用，尤其对老年人、儿童、一些慢性基础性疾病的易感人群，可以减少感染发病以及发生重症的风险。

此外，还要做好健康监测，出现例如发热、流涕、咽痛等呼吸系统症状的时候，要尽量保持休息的状态，根据情况及时就医。

记者：王小予

编辑：李雪晴

来源：国家卫健委 华山感染 世界卫生组织