ISPA发布2024年弹簧床垫行业预测

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国际睡眠产品协会统计委员会发布了 2024 年春季美国床垫市场预测。自 1980 年代中期以来，ISPA 一直发布美国床垫销售价值和销量预测。该预测预计，美国床垫市场总量（美国生产和进口）在 2024 年将下降，但在 2025 年将上升。

The International Sleep Products Association’s Statistics Committee has released its 2024 spring forecast for the U.S. mattress market. Since the mid-1980s, ISPA has published forecasts for the value and volume of U.S. mattress sales. This forecast projects that the total U.S. mattress market (U.S.-produced and imports) is expected to decrease in 2024 but increase in 2025.

影响预测的因素包括就业人数强劲，但持续的通货膨胀、高利率和疲软的房地产市场，这使得预测尤为困难。2024 年选举周期也可能影响床垫行业，因为床垫广告和销售会受到影响。

Factors informing the forecast are strong employment numbers but persistent inflation, high interest rates and a soft housing market, making it particularly challenging to produce. The 2024 election cycle may also impact the mattress industry due to disruptions to mattress advertisements and sales.

ISPA 的《2023 年床垫行业趋势报告》指出，床垫总出货量（包括美国生产和进口的床垫和固定底座）下降了 8.0%，出货价值下降了 2.0%。到 2024 年，该预测预计床垫出货批发价值将下降 2%，单位出货量将与 2023 年相比再下降 4%。

ISPA’s 2023 Mattress Industry Trends Report noted that the quantity of total mattress shipments (including U.S.-produced and imported mattresses and stationary foundations) decreased by 8.0%, and the value of shipments decreased by 2.0%. In 2024, this forecast predicts the wholesale value of mattress shipments will decrease by 2%, and unit shipments will decrease by another 4% compared to 2023.

然而，由于抵押贷款利率下降和房地产市场加速发展，2025 年美国床垫市场（包括美国本土生产和进口）的批发价值将增加。明年，床垫总出货量应增长 2.5%，出货价值将增长 4.5%。2024 年和 2025 年，床垫总出货量的平均单价将放缓至每年 2.0%。相比之下，2022 年和 2023 年的 AUP 分别增长了 4.7% 和 1.2%。

However, the wholesale value of the total U.S. mattress market, including U.S.-produced and imports, will increase in 2025, thanks to an easing of mortgage rates and an accelerating housing market. Next year, total mattress shipments should grow by 2.5%, and the value of those shipments will increase by 4.5%. The average unit price for total mattress shipments will slow to 2.0% annually in 2024 and 2025. For comparison, AUP increased 4.7% and 1.2% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

为了编写本报告，密歇根大学定量经济学研究研讨会制定了基准预测。随后，ISPA 统计委员会（也是 ISPA 预测小组）审查了这些结果，其成员包括美国领先的床垫生产商和零部件供应商。该小组用定性数据补充了基准预测。该预测还包含 Mann, Armistead & Epperson, Ltd. 的 Jerry Epperson 和 Association Research Inc. 的 Ashraf Abdul Mohsen 提供的及时经济和市场分析。

To create this report, a baseline forecast is prepared by the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics at the University of Michigan. The findings are then reviewed by the ISPA Statistics Committee (also the ISPA Forecast Panel) with members that include leading U.S. mattress producers and component suppliers. The Panel supplements the baseline forecast with qualitative data. The forecast also contains timely economic and market analyses provided by Jerry Epperson, of Mann, Armistead & Epperson, Ltd., and Ashraf Abdul Mohsen of Association Research Inc.

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