贵州茅台
2024~2026归母净利润:877(17.37%),1019(16.16%),1169(14.74%)
2026估值:1169*30=35070亿(2792元)
2024理想买点:35070/2=17535亿(1396元)
2024理想卖点:877*50=43850亿(3491元)
当前市值:21815亿(1737元)
五粮液
2024~2026归母净利润:339(12.17%),380(12.17%),425(11.86%)
2026估值:425*25=10625亿(274元)
2024理想买点:10625/2=5312.5亿(137元)
2024理想卖点:10625*1.5=15937.5亿(411元)
当前市值:5966亿(153.7元)
泸州老窖
2024~2026归母净利润:162(22.04%),195(20.46%),232(19.12%)
2026估值:232*25=5800亿(394元)
2024理想买点:5800/2=2900亿(197元)
2024理想卖点:162*50=8100亿(550元)
当前市值:2746亿(186.5元)
山西汾酒
2024~2026归母净利润:131(25.93%),161(22.36%),194(20.50%)
2026估值:194*25=4850亿(397元)
2024理想买点:4850/2=2425亿(198元)
2024理想卖点:131*50=6550亿(537元)
当前市值:3289亿(269.6元)
洋河股份
2024~2026归母净利润:108(7.66%),119(10.23%),131(10.42%)
2026估值:131*0.94*0.9*25=2770亿(184元)
2024理想买点:2770/2=1385亿(92元)
2024理想卖点:2770*1.5=4155亿(276元)
当前市值:1453亿(96.44元)
备注:0.94是预测值偏高的折扣,0.9是增速不高的折扣
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