【国际会议预告】关于家庭和居住安排的预测/分析以及在健康老龄化和可持续发展研究中的应用（5月9-10日）

中国的家庭户数量和结构正随着人口快速老化而发生巨大变化，因此，家庭和居住安排的预测分析变得尤为重要。生育、结婚、离婚、同居、同居解体、迁移和子女离家等人口要素变化将带来不同类型和规模家庭户（例如，空巢老人家庭户、有同时肩负照料老人和抚养孩子重任的中年人的家庭户，等等），在家户数量和比例上都有重大变化，从而引申出一系列家庭人口社会经济、健康老龄化和可持续发展相关问题。就这些议题的现状和未来发展趋势的分析和预测，对中国和世界各国应对人口老化的严峻挑战，进行科学决策具有重大现实意义。

本次会议由来自中国、新加坡、荷兰、美国、新西兰、泰国、印度尼西亚、巴基斯坦、越南、伊朗、巴西等国家的学者做30多个学术报告，涉及议题包括家庭和居住安排的过去趋势和现状分析、家庭和居住安排的概率预测方法研究进展、家庭和居住安排概率预测和分析的用户友好软件开发研究进展、家庭和居住安排预测/分析与健康老龄化研究、家庭和居住安排分析与老年护理和政策分析、家庭和居住安排预测/分析与可持续发展研究、未来家庭和居住安排变化的前景和政策对策等。

时间：2024年5月9-10日9:00-17:40

地点：北京大学国家发展院B101报告厅

语言：英文（部分有同传）

主办：北京大学国家发展院健康老龄与发展研究中心、中国人口与发展研究中心、新加坡国立大学家庭与人口研究中心

听讲报名：请扫二维码填写报名信息

议程安排

May 9 (Thursday)

8:45~9:00 Arrival of the participants

9:00~10:50 Opening Ceremony and Session 1 of keynote speeches

Chair: Junjian Yi (Boya Distinguished Professor, National School of Development, Peking University)

9:00~9:20 Opening Ceremony

Opening remarks by Dandan Zhang (Associate Dean, National School of Development, Peking University)

Brief speeches by:

Wenzhuang Yang (Director General of Department of Population Surveillance and Family Development of National Health Commission of People’s Republic of China);

Dan He (Director General of China Population and Development Research Center)

Qiushi Feng (Associate Professor of Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Deputy Director of Center for Families and Population Research at National University of Singapore)

9:20~10:40; Session 1

Keynote speeches

Frans Willekens (Professor and former Director of Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demography Institute, and Member of Netherlands Royal Academy of Sciences): Issues in Households and Living Arrangements Projections (Online);

Michael Murphy (Professor of Department of Methodology at London School of Economics and Political Science; Member of the British Royal Academy and Member of the British Academy of Social Sciences): Household and Living Arrangement Projections in the United Kingdom Using the Extended Cohort-Component Method -- An application of the ProFamy Methods/software (Online);

David Banks (Professor of the Practice of Statistics, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University) (Online);

Junjian Yi (Boya Distinguished Professor, National School of Development, Peking University): Falling Fertility Differentials in China: Incomplete Contract, Filial Piety, and Demand-side Fertility Policies

Open discussions.

10:40~10:50; Group photo

10:50~11:05; Coffee and tea break

11:05~12:45; Section 2

Analyses on the past trends and present statuses of households and living arrangements

Chair: Patama Vapattanawong (Professor, Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, Thailand)

Aris Ananta (Professor, Department of Economics, Indonesia Universitas; former President of Asian Population Association): Marital Status Transition Matrix in Indonesia;

Leiwen Jiang (Senior research fellow of PopulationCouncil in New York, and Director of Asian Population Research Center, Shanghai University): Changes in household size composition and its demographic driving forces;

Milad Bagi (Assistant Professor of Demography, Department of Social Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University): Past Experiences and Future Directions of Female-Headed Households in Iran;

Shuzhuo Li (Professor of School of Public Policies and Management at Xiaan Jiaotong University): Population Aging and Living Arrangements in Asia: Facts, Observations, and Responses.

Open discussions.

12:55~14:00; Lunch

14:00~15:40; Section 3

Research progress in methodology of probabilistic projections of households and living arrangements

Chair:Leiwen Jiang (Senior research fellow of PopulationCouncil in New York, and Director of Asian Population Research Center, Shanghai University)

Yi Zeng (Professor of Peking University and Duke University; Member of The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS) for the Advancement of Science in Developing Countries; Foreign member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences): Basis and Ideas of Probabilistic Households and Living Arrangement Projections (PHPs);

Junni Zhang (Associate Professor of National School of Development at Peking University): Bayesian Models and BayesProj R package for Estimating and Probabilistically Projecting Total Marriage Rates and Total Divorce Rates for PHPs;

Wei Tang (Postdoctoral Research Fellow of National School of Development at Peking University): Illustrative Applications of the Bayesian Models to Estimate and Probabilistically Project Total Marriage Rates and Total Divorce Rates for PHPs;

Man Li (Assistant Professor of School of Sociology at Soochow University) and Shanwen Zhu (School of Humanities at Shanghai Institute of Technology): Optimized Random-combinations of Total Fertility Rates and Life Expectancies at Birth for Probabilistic Populations, Households and Living Arrangement Projections.

Open discussions.

15:40~15:55; Coffee and tea break

15:55~17:35; Section 4

Research progress in user-friendly software development for probabilistic projections and analyses of households and living arrangements

Chair: Wenjiong He (Vice Dean of Institute for Common Prosperity and Development, Zhejiang University)

Qiushi Feng (Associate Professor of Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Deputy Director of Center for Families and Population Research at National University of Singapore): Usefulness and Illustrative Applications of User-friendly R Software DemoRates;

Zhenglian Wang (Senior Research Fellow of China Population and Development Research Center): Extensions of ProFamy User-friendly Software by Using the Summary Measures of Total Rates of Marriage/Union Formations and Dissolutions for Probabilistic Households and Living Arrangement Projections (PHPs);

Can Jia (Research Fellow of China Population and Development Research Center): Extend the Outcomes of Three R Packages of UNPD Probabilistic Population Projections Using Bayesian Hierarchical Models from Excluding Rural/urban (or Race) to Rural/urban (or Race)-Specific;

John Bryant (Director, Bayesian Demography Limited): Usefulness and Illustrative Applications of BayesRates R Program for estimating age-specific demographic rates.

Open discussions.

May 10 (Friday)

8:45~9:00:Arrival of the participants

9:00~10:40; Section 5

Households and living arrangement projections/analyses for healthy aging research

Chair: Aris Ananta (Professor, Department of Economics, Indonesia Universitas; former President of Asian Population Association)

Bussarawan Puk Teerawichitchainan (Associate Professor of National University of Singapore): Gender and Long-Term Care in the Context of Limited Close Kin -- Nationally Representative Evidence from Thailand;

Jian Sun (Lecturer, College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University): Association between community care services availability and quality of life among older adults: Evidence from China;

Patama Vapattanawong (Professor, Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University): Demographic Situation in the Past Six Decades of Thailand

Lijing Yan (Professor and Head of NCD Research at Global Health Research Center, Duke Kunshan University)：Urban-Rural Disparities and All-cause Mortality Risk among Chinese Old Adults: the Multiple Mediation Effect of Lifestyle Factors and Leisure Activities.

Open discussions.

10:40~10:55; Coffee and tea break

10:55~12:35; Session 6

Analyses on household and living arrangement for old age cares and policy analyses

Chair: Sabahat Hussai (Senior Research Scientist, Population Council, Islamabad, Pakistan)

Xuxi Zhang (Assistant Professor, School of Public Health, Peking University Medical Center): Development and Validation of Physical Disability Index and Mental Disability Index and their Associations with Falls among Older Adults;

Xian Zhang (Research Fellow, Duke Kunshan University)：Long-Term Care Insurance Promoted the Diagnosis and Management of Hypertension in Older Adults;

Jianxin Li (Professor, Department of Sociology, Peking University): Analysis of Low Fertility Levels in China;

Yao Yao (Associate Research Fellow of China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University Medical Center): Characteristics of and Enlightenment for Older Care in China: from the Perspective of Family Structure Changes.

Open discussions.

12:40~13:55; Lunch

13:55~15:35; Session 7

Households and living arrangement projections/analysesand sustainable development research

Chair: Shuzhuo Li (Professor of School of Public Policies and Management at Xiaan Jiaotong University)

Sabahat Hussain (Senior Research Scientist, Population Council, Islamabad, Pakistan): Households and Living Arrangement Projections for Pakistan;

Xiuli Liu (Professor and Director, Economic Analysis and Forecasting Science Research Lab, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences): Aging Population, Balanced Diet and China’s Grain Demand;

Augusto Schmidt (Research Associate, Campinas State University, Brazil): Household and Living Arrangements Projections for Brazil (2010-2030);

Sihan Ji (Associate Professor Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University): Green Space and Functional Aging in China: Community and Cohort Studies;

Open discussions.

15:35~15:50; Coffee and tea break

15:50~17:30; Section 8

Perspective of changes in households and living arrangements in the future years and policy responses

Chair:Xuying Zhang (AssociateDirector General of China Population and Development Research Center)

Nguyen Duc Vinh (Institute of Sociology, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences): Projection of Household Living Arrangements in Vietnam to 2049;

Jiye Hu (Professor/Director, Department of Finance, Business School, China University of Political Science and Law): International experience in establishing a birth support policy system;

Premchand Dommaraju (Associate Professor, Division of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)：Transformations in Indian Household Structures;

Xinyan Cheng (Postdoctoral Fellow, Institute of Aging, Fudan University): A Microsimulation Study of the 8-4-2-n Families in China based on Agent-based Modeling.

Open discussions.

17:30~17:35; Closing remarksby Xuying Zhang (Associate Director General of China Population and Development Research Center)