宏观经济日记（2023年1月10日）：通胀的故事听腻了吗？

本文由智堡原创，升级为元会员享受每年至少20场线上会议路演与会权，新年首月加入智堡宏观社群，价格直减400元。

这两天联储侧的信息又是了无生趣的通胀问题，通胀数据在去年确实困扰着诸多投资者，但大家也折腾了一年半载多了，都快听腻了。

本周四即将公布新的通胀数据，目前市场对于通胀的关注点依然是：

• 环比增速0.3%以内，这样才能看到迈向2%通胀目标的希望（✔，11月核心CPI环比进一步放缓至0.2%，年化后2.4%）

• 通胀预期相对稳定（✔，最新的纽约联储通胀预期调查，未来一年的通胀预期中值为5.0%，前值5.2%）

• 不存在工资-通胀螺旋的压力，薪资通胀压力持续缓解（✔，Nick发推强调本次非农数据的关键是 平均时薪AHE数据的改善，市场认账）

毫无疑问，如果新的通胀数据依然延续去年底至今的下行趋势，那么通胀这个议题很难再对各大类资产造成情绪冲击。

许多研究者和联储官员近期讨论的通胀风险在我看来都有些过早，交易者和投资者是不可能这么早就开始考虑这么抽象的经济问题的，比如……

• 虽然环比增速放缓到0.3%以内意味着通胀会快速回落，但是否足以让联储回归2%的政策目标呢？（平均通胀目标制的争论，演变为联储框架之争）

• 通胀预期数字虽然稳定，但是通胀预期的离散度有所提升，换言之，预期高通胀和通缩的人形成了强烈的分化与反差，这是否是一种形式的预期脱锚？

• 薪资数据（AHE）的改善可靠吗？还是Nick操弄预期之举？我们 是否需要耐心等待鲍威尔更加看重的ECI和亚特兰大联储的工资跟踪数据？

如果你阅读最近联储的一些文章，会发现政策当局所思考的通胀风险已经跑到前面去了，比如最近新理事（理事拥有永久的FOMC投票权）Cook在演讲中提到（原文PDF智堡已经上传）：

Some questions deserve further attention and study. As sectoral supply–demand imbalances have played a key role in understanding inflation in recent years, would adopting a model with multiple price components improve our understanding of and ability to forecast overall inflation? Relatedly, should we look to inflation models with nonlinear or threshold effects, which could capture, among other things, supply constraints? The pandemic has had a much more prolonged effect on labor supply than many expected, and rapid nominal wage growth has accompanied the recent rise in inflation in ways that traditional measures of labor market tightness—such as the unemployment rate gap—might not be capturing. Many analysts have used data on job vacancies to go beyond a simple unemployment rate gap indicator, and I see merit in such approaches. We should ask how we can better understand the relations among realizations of inflation, inflation expectations, and the rate of inflation to which the economy would gravitate after the effects of temporary shocks have ebbed. Finally, we should consider if there are ways to better anticipate structural breaks in the inflation process. For example, inflation could become a nonstationary time-series process if inflation expectations were to become de-anchored.

正如在过去“三低”环境下央行官员试图调整自己的货币政策框架来迎合经济环境那样，当前的通胀动态也已经开始改变央行官员的思维方式以及他们度量通胀风险的模式，这也是为什么哪怕通胀数据不断改善，市场上也存在着“通胀长期化”、“通胀根深蒂固”、“去全球化改变通胀范式”的悲观派，看起来认可通胀久期和对应鹰派联储“Higher for Longer”的一派仍然会和认可衰退交易以及对应鸽派联储的“Risk Management”的一派针锋相对。

软着陆，前者胜；硬着陆，后者胜。