公务机各机型价格航程及市场占有情况对比分析

公务机机型较多较杂，难以全面了解，为便于分析，现基于Jefferies的相关报告对公务机各机型价格航程及市场占有情况进行对比分析，以供各位同行参考借鉴。

一、各机型航程座位等参数对比

新技术可以推动对旧机队的需求并加速迭代。表40列出的为宣称预计在未来五年内交付市场的新机型。

我们预计2022年至2025年将有6种新型号飞机推出，就即将推出的机型而言，大多数都是在重型（大型）市场。挑战者3500计划于2022年4季度投入使用，作为挑战者350的升级版，具有3200海里的航程和升级的客舱。

湾流宣布在未来四年将有三款飞机投入服务，包括G700、G800和G400。G700 (EIS投入服务 Q4:22)提供四个客舱区域和7500海里的范围，与环球7500 (EIS 2018)竞争。同样，G800 (EIS 2023)的航程为8,000 nm，但它只有三个机舱区，价格为7100万美元，与G650ER更具可比性。G400是与G800一起宣布将在2025年投入运行，它的航程范围为4200海里，价格为3500万美元，与挑战者650和猎鹰2000LX竞争。

最后，达索公司在2021年早些时候启动了一款新飞机“猎鹰10X”，其航程为7500海里，客舱由四个区域组成。此外，猎鹰6X计划于2022年投入使用。

二、各机型价格航程对比和客户选择

中国大陆地区通用机场及通航设施服务较不完善且费用较高，小型轻型公务机（喷气式）很难生存因而保有量非常少，8成以上都是大型远程公务机，所以仅讨论此类型的公务机。就品牌知名度而言，湾流相对庞巴迪和达索略胜一筹，国内尤其如此。就价格和航程而言，同一价格范围，航程越远越受到青睐，正如湾流G550保有量超600架，远超其他同一价位的机型的原因。湾流G550于2021年6月已停产，虽然后续湾流有G500/G600替代，但是应该很难超越G550的销量。同理推测同一档的新机型中湾流G700/800、Global7500/8000、Falcon10X中，湾流G800可能会更受欢迎，而Falcon10X因推出市场滞后会面临更多的销售压力。

Jefferies报告相关摘录如下：

What is the reception to the new Gulfstream G500 thus far? Do you think buyers will prefer the lower-priced G500 ($45MM) vs the Falcon 6X ($47MM) or Global 5000 ($50MM)?
Positive Reception (48% of responses)

• + "Amazing. We know a lot of owners who switched to it from a G450 and a couple who came from older Dassault/Bombardier aircraft. However, comparing to G550/6X I think it will be the OEM thing again. Only a few Dassault and Bombardier buyers would seriously consider a Gulfstream."
• + "G500 doing great. Global 5500 sales are surprisingly disappointing. Historical ratio of Global 5000:Global 6000 sales was 1:2. Current ratio of Global 5500:Global 6500 is closer to 1:4. No idea why. Seeing lots of interest in the Falcon 6X. The huge cabin is attracting a lot of attention."
• + "The G500 has been well-received by the market (with the exception of the current problem)"
• + "G500 has a solid acceptance. It will compete well."
• + "The G-500 is a definite favorite over Global 5500 due to new technology. Once 6X is out, will be a very strong competitor to G-500 and perhaps even more so if G-500 AD isn't quickly concluded."
Neutral (22% of responses)
• = "Excellent until 15 knot wind landing limitation"
• = "G500 is challenged by the AD issue as well."
• = "The 6X is appealing and will be good competition for the G500"
• = "G500 will pick up once the AD is resolved."
Negative Reception (30% of responses)
• - "Tech issues"
• - "The G500 is struggling now with the new limitations."
• - "G500 burns more fuel, so the 6X is preferred."
• - "Too expensive too little range for the price"
• - "Falcon 6X seems to be ahead of its competitors"
• - "Too many problems with FBW

What is the reception to the new Gulfstream G800 ($72MM) thus far? Is it differentiated enough from the G700 ($75MM) or G600 ($55MM)?
Positive Reception (29% of responses)
• + "I think the reception is good and each have their own market niche."
• + "For me only on range"
Neutral (9%)
• = "Smaller target group of buyers"
• = "Interesting...but another new product aimed at the very top end of the market. Is the ultra long range category getting crowded and is the true demand really there for these a/c?"
Negative (62%)
• - "The only comments I heard were 'I don’t know who needs to fly even further and with a shorter cabin than a G700'"
• - "Too small for that long of flight"
• - "I don't think there is enough differentiation between the Gulfstream models in capability, and feel they are trying to fill too many niches."
• - "G800 will not compete with the G600. G700 will be preferred option."
• - "Personally, not seeing much interest in G800. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I think there should be and will end up being more than $3MM price separation between the G700 & G800. I'd gladly pay the extra $3MM for the larger cabin of the G700 while only sacrificing 500nm of range compared to the G800. Anyone that truly uses that
long range would gladly appreciate 30% more cabin space. Not sure how many people are out there where the additional 500nm is going to make a difference."

How do you think buyers view the G700 ($75MM) relative to the Global 7500 ($72MM) and recently launched Falcon 10X ($75MM)?
Stronger View (38% of responses)
• + "They are thinking that G700 is superior to GL7500 and 10X from the point of comfort and performance of Gulfstream."
• + "The G700 will likely be viewed as a superior aircraft. Not enough info yet on the Falcon 10X. Bombardier just announced the Global 8000 but too early to tell on that."
• + "I think the G700 will be viewed as superior to Global 7500. The Falcon 10X is gorgeous, but not sure how much market share Dassault thinks they can steal from the Gulfstream loyalists."
Neutral (42%)
• = "On par...but the new limitations on the Gulfstream G500/G600 have cast a shadow of uncertainty on the brand."
• = "Gulfstream brand strong amongst current Gulfstream, 10X will be strong with Falcon owners and non-loyal buyers. Global is strong with Bombardier and those who are not die hard Gulfstream customers."
• = "Gulfstream fans say it’s the best. Whereas Bombardier and Falcon owners favour their OEMs respectively. Never heard of anyone with a delivered and flying Global 7500 who wanted to transition to a G700 or F10X. It’s still the only real and readily available plane of them all."
• = "Depends if you are American or not. Americans love their Gulfstreams but Bombardier is more popular in this region and the Global 7500 has sold 100+ units "
Weaker View (20%)
• - "GL7500 is viewed better than G700. No interest in 10X so far"
• - "Gulfstream needs to resolve the G500 and G600 issues to strengthen confidence in their other new platforms"

三、各机型市场占有情况

因Jefferies的数据大部分源于北美，Cessna比例很高，但国内Cessnal（小型公务机）非常少，国内以湾流为主约40%，庞巴迪次之约30%，德事隆、达索、巴航和其他公务机约30%。

由图可以看出从2007年到2021年，庞巴迪从22%增长到29%（2014年）后回落到22%；达索从7%增长到12%（2010年）后回落到6%；湾流从13%增长到25%（2020年）后回落到22%，仅湾流有较稳定的涨幅。空客和波音的公务机占比非常小，豪客比奇在经历了HK4000的失败后已经于2012年倒闭。

由图可以看出，2021年各个公务机厂商的交付中，北美接近7成占到68%，亚太地区仅4%，这和亚太的经济规模严重不相符，考虑到中国国情，疫情影响及国内境外注册等影响，亚太估计很难超过10%，而且可以预见的未来应该不会有太多改变，需等到国内的航空工业越来越成熟，部件深度维修能力越来越强，通用机场越来越多，通航服务越来越规范并打破垄断，可能就是中国通航成熟之时，但即使是这样预计亚太地区也不会超过30%，因为亚太属于儒家文化的大陆内向文明和美国的海洋外向文明不一样，但是无所谓好坏，合适即可。

都看到这里了

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