22考研外刊阅读《科学新闻》双语精读版训练--人工智能帮助预测北极海冰损失

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"We think the energy drink consumption may be related to a need for excitement, rather than the drinks themselves being a direct cause of traffic violations," he added.

他补充说：“我们认为消费能量饮料可能与人们追求刺激的需求有关，而不是饮料本身直接导致交通违规。”

消费能量饮料的人更可能是喜欢追求刺激的人，而追求刺激的人往往也更可能交通违规，这与消费能量饮料导致交通违规是完全不同的！

《本期内容》

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一种新的 AI(人工智能)工具将使科学家能够更准确地预测未来几个月的北极海冰状况。改进后的预测可以支持新的预警系统，以保护北极野生动物和沿海社区免受海冰损失的影响。

双语阅读

IceNet, a sea ice forecasting system developed by the British Antarctic Survey, or BAS, is “95 percent accurate in forecasting sea ice two months ahead — higher than the leading physics-based model SEAS5 — while running 2,000 times faster,” says Tom Andersson, a data scientist with BAS’s Artificial Intelligence lab.

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Whereas SEAS5 takes about six hours on a supercomputer to produce a forecast, IceNet can do the same in less than 10 seconds on a laptop. The system also shows a surprising ability to predictanomalousice events — unusual highs or lows — up to four months in advance, Andersson and his colleagues found.

SEAS5在超级计算机上需要花6个小时才能生成预报，而“冰网”可以在笔记本电脑上用不到10秒的时间完成同样的事。安德森和他的同事发现，该系统还显示出一种惊人的能力，可以提前4个月预测异常高或低的冰体活动。

Tracking sea ice is crucial tokeeping tabs onthe impacts of climate change. While that’s more of a long game, the advanced notice provided by IceNet could have more immediate benefits, too. For instance, it could give scientists the lead time needed to assess, and plan for, the risks of Arctic fires or wildlife-human conflicts, and it could provide data thatIndigenouscommunities need to make economic and environmental decisions.

追踪海冰对监测气候变化的影响至关重要。虽然这是一个长期行动，但“冰网”给出的预警也可能有更多直接的好处。例如，它可以为科学家评估和计算北极火灾或野生动物与人类冲突的风险提供必要的准备时间，它还可以为当地土著居民提供做经济和环境决策所需的数据。

Arctic sea ice extent has steadilydeclinedin all seasons since satellite records began in 1979 (SN: 9/25/19). Scientists have been trying to improve sea ice forecasts for decades, but success has proved elusive. “Forecasting sea ice is really hard because sea ice interacts in complex ways with the atmosphere above and ocean below,” Andersson says.

自1979年开始有卫星记录以来，北极海冰的大小一年四季都在稳步变小(SN: 9/25/19)。几十年来，科学家们一直在努力提高海冰预测准确率，但始终没有取得成功。“预测海冰真的很难，因为海冰以复杂的方式与上面的大气和下面的海洋相互作用，”安德森说。

Existing forecast tools put the laws of physics into computer code to predict how sea ice will change in the future. But partly due to uncertainties in the physical systems governing sea ice, these models struggle to produce accurate long-rangeforecasts. Using a process called deep learning, Andersson and his colleagues loaded observational sea ice data from 1979 to 2011 and climate simulations covering 1850 to 2100 to train IceNet how to predict the state of future sea ice by processing the data from the past.

现有的预测工具将物理学定律编入计算机代码，来预测海冰未来的变化。但部分由于控制海冰的物理系统的不确定性，这些模型的长期预测结果很难做到准确。安德森和他的同事使用了一种叫做深度学习的方法，载入1979年至2011年的海冰观测数据和1850年至2100年的气候模拟数据，来训练“冰网”通过处理历史数据来预测未来的海冰状态。

本文节选自：Science News（科学新闻）

发布时间：2021.09.14

作者：Gloria Dickie

原文标题：How AI can help forecast how much Arctic sea ice will shrink

词汇积累

1.anomalous

• 英 /əˈnɒmələs/ 美 /əˈnɒmələs/

• adj. 不规则的；异常的；不恰当的
  

  2.indigenous

• 英 /ɪnˈdɪdʒɪnəs/ 美 /ɪnˈdɪdʒɪnəs/

• adj. 本土的；固有的

  3.decline

• 英 /dɪˈklaɪn/ 美 /dɪˈklaɪn/

• v. 下降，衰退; 拒绝；变格，词形变化

  n. 减少；衰退

  4.range

• 英 /reɪndʒ/ 美 /reɪndʒ/
  

• n.范围；幅度；排；山脉

  vt.漫游；放牧；使并列；归类于；来回走动

  vi.（在...内）变动；平行，列为一行；延伸；漫游；射程达到

词组搭配

1.keep tabs on 监视，密切注意

写作句总结

While that’s more of a long game, the advanced notice provided by IceNet could have more immediate benefits, too.

结构: While that’s more of a long game, … could have more immediate benefits, too.

尽管那是一个长期的活动，…也可能有更多直接的好处

例句: While that’s more of a long game, the network system could have more immediate benefits, too.

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