杰克逊霍尔会议演讲全文

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By Gemini

在我们这个时代

For release on delivery

10:00 a.m. EDT (8:00 a.m. MDT)August 28, 2026

供发布使用美国东部夏令时间 2026 年 8 月 28 日上午 10:00（山地夏令时间上午 8:00）

Remarks by Kevin WarshChairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systemat

"Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy," an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Jackson Hole, WyomingAugust 28, 2026

演讲人：凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）美联储理事会主席堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办的经济政策研讨会“金融创新：对支付与政策的影响”怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔2026 年 8 月 28 日

Thank you. It's great to be here again and to see so many familiar faces. I've been looking forward to this weekend—what better place to mark my 100th day as Chairman?

谢谢大家。很高兴能再次来到这里，见到这么多熟悉的面孔。我一直非常期待这个周末——还有什么地方比这里更适合纪念我就任美联储主席第 100 天呢？

For the fine hospitality, everyone here is in debt to President Jeff Schmid and his colleagues at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Jeff, our thanks to you all.

对于热情周到的款待，在座的每一位都要感谢堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长杰夫·施密德（Jeff Schmid）及其同事们。杰夫，感谢你们大家。

Jeff and the other planners have some recreation options lined up for later today. And I'd advise you to be very careful with your choices.

杰夫和其他策划人员为今天晚些时候安排了一些休闲活动选项。我建议大家在选择时务必格外谨慎。

As I learned years ago, you can take two different kinds of hikes on the trails around Jackson Hole. I can sum up my hikes with former Vice Chairman Don Kohn in two words: I survived. These steely marathon death marches revealed a side of Don I wasn't ready for.

多年前我就体会到，在杰克逊霍尔周围的步道上徒步有两种截然不同的风格。我与前副主席唐·科恩（Don Kohn）的徒步经历可以用两个字概括：幸存。那些钢铁般的马拉松式“死亡行军”展现出了唐身上我此前完全没料到的一面。

There's another kind of hike—one I associate with Chairman Ben Bernanke, my old colleague. With Ben, it's a much more leisurely pace, an easy stroll along the wandering trails at the Rockefeller Preserve.

还有另一种徒步——这让我想到我的老同事本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）主席。和本一起徒步节奏要悠闲得多，就像是在洛克菲勒保护区蜿蜒的小径上轻松漫步。

So before setting out, do a wellness check and ask yourself: "Is this a Kohn day or a Bernanke day?"

因此，在出发之前，请先评估一下自己的身体状况并问问自己：“今天适合科恩式的跋涉，还是伯南克式的漫步？”

The best thing about this gathering is that it helps us all clear our minds and think straight about our world and our time. For me, it feels like the right place, and the right audience, for a real engagement with the ideas that matter most.

这次聚会最棒的地方在于，它有助于我们所有人理清思绪，深入思考我们的世界和我们身处的时代。对我而言，在正确的地方、面对正确的听众，正适合就最核心的思想展开真正的交流与碰撞。

Innovation is the conference theme, and I believe that the public and the markets in their collective wisdom understand that innovations in the conduct of policy at the Fed will help deliver price stability alongside full employment.

“创新”是本次会议的主题，我相信公众和市场凭借其集体智慧心知肚明：美联储在政策执行方式上的创新，将有助于在实现充分就业的同时确保物价稳定。

Here is a quick overview of what I'll cover in my remarks this morning. You can call it an outline... you can call it a trail map... just don't call it forward guidance.

以下是我今天上午讲话的简要概述。你可以称之为大纲……也可以称之为路线图……只是千万别把它叫作“前瞻性指引”（forward guidance）。

First, I'll touch on a few of the longer-term questions we're asking at the Fed about the latest general-purpose technology, artificial intelligence (AI), and where it might take the economy.

首先，我将谈及美联储针对最新通用技术——人工智能（AI）所探讨的若干长期问题，以及它可能引领经济走向何方。

Then I'll reflect a bit on the practice of forward guidance and the interaction between the central bank and financial markets.

随后，我将反思前瞻性指引的具体实践，以及央行与金融市场之间的互动关系。

Next, I'll present some of the key principles that I believe should guide the conduct of monetary policy.

接下来，我将阐述我认为应当指导货币政策执行的几项核心原则。

And, finally, I'll give you my assessment of the economy.

最后，我将向大家分享我对当前经济形势的评估。

Preparing for Future Policy Conjunctures 为未来的政策关口做准备

With the unchanging picture of the Tetons as our backdrop, we are here to survey an economic landscape that is anything but static.

以恒久不变的提顿山脉为背景，我们在此审视的却是一幅绝非静止的经济图景。

It wasn't so long ago in the run-up to the crisis of 2008 and over the decade that followed when economists and policymakers were speaking of secular stagnation and a global saving glut. It was a widely held view that an excess of capital would sit on the sidelines for a long, long time, because there just wouldn't be enough compelling investment opportunities. All the good stuff had been invented. So growth would be low and slow.

不久之前，在 2008 年危机爆发前夕以及随后的十年里，经济学家和政策制定者们还在大谈“长期停滞”（secular stagnation）和“全球储蓄过剩”（global saving glut）。当时普遍持有的观点是：过剩的资本将在很长一段时间内作壁上观，因为根本没有足够吸引人的投资机会。所有好东西都已被发明出来了，因此经济增长将陷入低速而迟缓的境地。

Well, times sure have changed. We've come to a hinge point in history.

然而，时代确实变了。我们已经来到了历史的关键转折点（hinge point）。

To cite the clearest example, progress in artificial intelligence—the 80-year-old name for the newest technology—has been faster even than its evangelists predicted a couple of years ago.

举一个最明显的例子：人工智能——这一拥有 80 年历史名称的最新技术——其发展速度甚至超越了其倡导者几年前的预测。

The potential for substantially higher growth is on the rise. Ever-expanding pools of capital are pouring into AI-related infrastructure of all sorts. A kind of hyper-Moore's law seems to be playing out. Scaling laws, too, are changing both the method and speed of innovation.

实现大幅更高增长的潜力正在上升。规模日益扩大的资金正涌入各类与 AI 相关的基础设施中。一种“超级摩尔定律”似乎正在上演。扩展定律（Scaling laws）也正在重塑创新的方式与速度。

Capital and labor have combined to create the large language models at the heart of AI. Users buy tokens to gain access to the models. Reports put annualized token sales for the two leading labs alone at more than $100 billion—an increase of 500-plus percent from a year ago.

资本与劳动力相结合，创造了作为 AI 核心的大型语言模型。用户购买 Token 以获取对模型的使用权。报告显示，仅两家领先的实验室其年化 Token 销售额就已超过 1000 亿美元——比一年前增长了 500% 以上。

The Fed watches all of this attentively. We recognize that AI is a new variable—potentially a new factor of production—that will have consequences for both the economy and the conduct of monetary policy. It opens some major lines of inquiry:

美联储密切注视着这一切。我们认识到，AI 是一个新的变量——甚至可能是一种新的生产要素——它将对经济运行和货币政策执行产生深远影响。这引出了几个重大的探究方向：

Will the application of AI cause a significant, sustained rise in productivity across the economy? And if so, when?

AI 的应用是否会导致全经济范围内生产率出现显著且持续的提升？如果会，何时显现？

Will token usage be complementary or competitive to labor? Will the next generation of AI models demand even greater capital intensity, or will the models themselves help devise a capital-light solution?

Token 的使用对劳动力是互补还是竞争关系？下一代 AI 模型是否需要更高的资本密集度，抑或模型本身会协助设计出轻资产的解决方案？

Among the other yet unknowns is the resulting market structure. It's not obvious where the returns on capital will land or on what timescale. Early on, how much of the surplus goes to owners of scarce assets—AI labs, chipmakers, energy producers, and cloud providers? Over time, how much of that value accrues to businesses and consumers? What are the broad implications for workers and for the employment side of the Fed's mandate?

另一个未解之谜是最终形成的“市场结构”。资本回报将流向何方、在何种时间尺度上体现，目前尚不明朗。在发展初期，有多少剩余价值流向了稀缺资产的拥有者——AI 实验室、芯片制造商、能源生产商和云服务提供商？随着时间的推移，又有多少价值会沉淀到企业和消费者手中？这对广大劳动者以及美联储使命中的就业端意味着什么？

Likewise, we don't yet know the equilibrium price of the tokens. Might there be a heterogeneity of tokens, such that growing sums will be paid for access to the best models at the frontier? Will token prices for older models fall to the level of their marginal cost?

同样，我们尚不清楚 Token 的均衡价格。Token 是否会出现异质化，从而促使人们为使用最前沿的模型支付越来越高昂的费用？老旧模型的 Token 价格是否会跌至其边际成本水平？

We will be thinking through these matters with the help of a task force on productivity and jobs. My early check-ins with the leaders of that task force, and the four others, have been encouraging.

我们将借助“生产率与就业特别工作组”的力量深入思考这些问题。我与该工作组以及另外四个工作组负责人的初步沟通令人感到鼓舞。

To be clear, though, their recommendations will come later and have no bearing on decisions we make in the current policy conjuncture. But I believe that for future policy challenges, this intellectual investment today will leave us far better prepared.

不过需要说明的是，他们的建议将在稍晚提出，与我们在当前政策关口做出的决定无关。但我坚信，面对未来的政策挑战，今天的这项智力投资将使我们准备得更加充分。

Forward Guidance and Its Stand-ins 前瞻性指引及其替代品

As our task forces go about their work, I am not waiting to introduce innovations at the Fed to make us fit for purpose. To highlight one example, I have set out to change the form and function of the Fed Chairman's so-called forward guidance. You might know about my long-time discomfort with early pronouncements of future policy decisions. I much prefer another path... and will make the case for it.

在各个工作组开展工作的同时，我并不打算推迟在美联储推行创新以使我们更适应职责要求。举一个突出的例子：我已着手改变美联储主席所谓的“前瞻性指引”的形式与功能。大家可能知道，我长期以来对过早宣布未来政策决定的做法感到不安。我更倾向于另一条路径……并将为此陈述理由。

Transparency in communications about future policy decisions is not a virtue unto itself. Communications must be in service to the Fed's paramount responsibility: getting monetary policy right.

就未来政策决策进行沟通的透明度本身并非终极美德。沟通必须服务于美联储的首要职责：把货币政策做对。

Forward guidance as a regular practice was adopted by my colleagues and me during the Global Financial Crisis. It was essential at the time, and we introduced it with much fanfare. But, as with other legacies of crises past, I believe that the practice has overstayed its welcome.

在常态下将前瞻性指引作为常规做法，是我和同事们在应对全球金融危机期间采纳的。当时它必不可少，我们在推出时也大张旗鼓。但是，与以往危机遗留下来的其他惯例一样，我认为这种做法已经弊大于利、过时太久了。

In normal times, the role of forward guidance should be limited and circumscribed. Otherwise it risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity. Oversharing policy deliberations and overcommitting to future decisions can lead markets, businesses, and households astray. And I believe when policymakers make quasi-commitments on interest rates through the cycle, we inhibit our own freedom to make the right calls when it's time to decide.

在正常时期，前瞻性指引的作用应当受到严格限制和约束。否则，它极易在“清晰”的名义下制造“混乱”。过度分享政策考量细节、对未来决策做出过度承诺，会误导市场、企业和家庭。并且我认为，当政策制定者在整个周期中对利率做出准承诺时，我们在真正需要做出决断时便束缚了自己做出正确抉择的自由。

To get policy right, we also need to get the relationship right between financial markets and the central bank. The Fed needs clear market signals, as unfiltered as possible... from market internals... the level and change in asset prices across sectors... the prices and trading volumes of Treasury securities... the foreign exchange value of the dollar... the cost and availability of credit... and the price of a broad set of commodities.

要制定正确的政策，我们还必须理顺金融市场与央行之间的关系。美联储需要清晰、尽可能未经滤镜过滤的市场信号……来自市场内在结构……跨行业资产价格的水平与变化……国债价格与交易量……美元的外汇汇率……信贷成本与可获得性……以及广泛大宗商品的价格。

These and other indicators should inform the Fed's near-term outlook on economic activity and inflation throughout the business cycle. They should also reveal the state of broader financial conditions and the risks and uncertainties in the financial cycle.

这些以及其他指标应当为美联储在整个商业周期中对经济活动和通胀的近期展望提供依据。它们还应当揭示更广泛的金融状况态势以及金融周期中的风险与不确定性。

At the same time, market participants themselves should be tracking real information across the economy. They should draw their own conclusions; form their own expectations of output, employment, and inflation; and stay sharply attuned to risks.

与此同时，市场参与者自身也应当追踪整个经济中的真实信息。他们应该得出自己的结论；形成自己对产出、就业和通胀的预期；并对风险保持高度敏锐。

The Fed should be humble and never naïve. The Fed plays an essential role in the economy and the markets. And our tools are powerful. We determine the path of short-term interest rates. And market participants will always try to anticipate what we will do next. But we should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.

美联储应当谦逊，但绝不能天真。美联储在经济和市场中扮演着至关重要的角色，我们的工具非常强大。我们决定着短期利率的走势，而市场参与者总是试图预判我们的下一步行动。但我们绝不应放任一种市场参与者主要依赖美联储来决定下一笔交易的机制。

The economic literature has long described the distorting effects: a hall-of-mirrors problem. If markets rely materially on the Fed's guidance and the Fed relies on market prices, we are all more likely to be blinded to new developments... more likely to be caught unprepared for a turn of events... and more likely to commit errors in policymaking.

经济学文献早已描述过这种扭曲效应：“镜厅效应”（hall-of-mirrors problem）。如果市场严重依赖美联储的指引，而美联储又依赖市场价格，我们大家都更容易对新动态视而不见……更容易在局势突变时措手不及……并更容易在政策制定中犯下错误。

Perversely, market participants are unlikely to bear the biggest costs of the hall-of-mirrors problem. The most serious harm is likely to befall those without financial assets. If the Fed gets inflation wrong and judges the economy wrong, who gets the worst of it? Not the financial high-fliers. Hard-working Americans are the ones left to deal with inflation that is too high or jobs that suddenly appear less secure.

具有讽刺意味的是，市场参与者往往不需要承担镜厅效应带来的最大代价。最严重的伤害往往会落到那些没有金融资产的人身上。如果美联储误判了通胀、误判了经济，受害最深的是谁？绝不是那些金融界精英，而是辛勤工作的普通美国人，他们不得不面对过高的通胀或突然失去保障的工作。

So, if forward guidance is ill-suited to normal times, then how about the new Fed chief commits at the very least to an explicit reaction function? Surely, he should tell us his interest rate path—if, say, the data were to come in hot or cold.

那么，如果前瞻性指引不适用于正常时期，新任美联储主席是否至少应该承诺一个明确的“反应函数”（reaction function）？比如，当数据过热或偏冷时，他难道不应该告诉我们其利率路径吗？

I wish our understanding of the economy were so precise as to provide a mechanical, tried-and-true answer—that some simple function like a Taylor rule could be rigorously relied upon. But our knowledge just doesn't extend that far—at least not yet—and the factors most relevant to the proper conduct of monetary policy change over time.

我倒希望我们对经济的理解能精准到足以提供一个机械化、屡试不爽的答案——使得像泰勒规则（Taylor rule）这样简单的函数可以被严格依赖。但我们的认知水平远未达到那种程度——至少目前尚未达到——而且与货币政策得当执行最相关的因素会随着时间的推移而不断改变。

Providing forecasts to illustrate the Fed's reaction function works better in theory than in practice, better in the lab than in the field. I'm not alone in noticing that forward guidance in 2021, to cite one example, might well have slowed the policy response to high inflation.

通过提供预测来展示美联储的反应函数，在理论上比在实践中更有效，在实验室里比在实战中更行得通。举例来说，不仅是我一个人注意到，2021 年的前瞻性指引很可能延缓了应对高通胀的政策响应速度。

In my term as Chairman, my colleagues and I will endeavor to construct more reliable models and more robust rules to guide policy decisions. We'll do this knowing that accuracy in economic forecasting is still just an aspiration. With so much changing so fast in geopolitics, global supply chains, and technology, it's wise to be modest about what we can and cannot know.

在我的主席任期内，我和同事们将努力构建更可靠的模型和更稳健的规则来指导政策决策。我们在做这些工作时深知：经济预测的准确性目前仍然只是一种愿景。随着地缘政治、全球供应链和科技领域的变化如此迅速，对我们能知道什么、不能知道什么保持谦逊才是明智之举。

In the same spirit, we should receive the full range of ideas on matters that may inform the Fed's monetary policy decisions. If the aim is optimal decisionmaking, we should not crowd out views on the economy.

本着同样的原则，我们应当就可能为美联储货币政策决策提供参考的各类议题倾听广泛意见。如果目标是实现最优决策，我们就不应排斥对经济的多元观点。

How, then, to chart a better path to policy? In the balance of my remarks, I will share some key principles that guide my thinking on the appropriate conduct of monetary policy... then offer my promised assessment of the economy.

那么，如何为政策制定规划一条更好的路径？在接下来的讲话中，我将分享指导我对适当执行货币政策进行思考的若干核心原则……然后给出我承诺的对经济形势的评估。

Key Principles 核心原则

Turning to principles...

谈到原则……

First, I've noticed that, in this line of work, yesterday's news has a way of getting mistaken for what is happening right now. The challenge is to know the difference. In other words, we must interrogate reality to make sure we are not setting forward-looking policy based on stale or inaccurate data. Nor should we rely on isolated data points. Trends matter most. The Fed is a decisionmaking agency. We make choices amid uncertainty, and the data upon which we draw must be as relevant, contemporaneous, accurate, and actionable as possible.

第一，我注意到在这一行中，昨天的旧闻往往容易被误认为是当下正在发生的事。挑战在于如何分辨二者的差异。换言之，我们必须审视现实，确保我们不会基于过时或不准确的数据来制定具有前瞻性的政策，也不应依赖孤立的数据点。趋势最为重要。美联储是一个决策机构，我们在不确定性中做出抉择，而我们所依托的数据必须尽可能相关、具有时效性、准确且具备可操作性。

Second, the Federal Reserve's actions are intended to ensure that the aggregate demand side of the economy is broadly consistent with aggregate supply. However, all we observe directly is activity. We never see, and can only infer, what's really happening on the supply side. Hence, evaluating the current and expected balance between aggregate supply and demand is imprecise.

第二，美联储的行动旨在确保经济的总需求侧与总供给侧大体保持一致。然而，我们能直接观察到的只有经济活动。我们从未能直接看到、只能去推断供给侧究竟在发生什么。因此，评估总供求之间当前与预期的平衡是存在不精确性的。

Third, there should be no misunderstanding: The Fed's price-stability objective of 2 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is a firm, fixed target. Let's be equally clear about another aspect of the objective: Price stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean-reverting. It is the Fed's job to deliver stable prices.

第三，不应有任何误解：以个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数衡量的美联储 2% 物价稳定目标是一个坚定、固定的目标。让我们对该目标的另一方面同样保持明确认识：物价稳定不会自动实现，通胀也未必具有均值回归的必然性。实现物价稳定是美联储的天职。

Fourth, the Fed also bears responsibility for maximum employment. Achieving both sides of our mandate over the medium term is not an either/or proposition. I do not believe that the Fed's dual mandate works at cross-purposes. After all, high inflation itself is very harmful to economic prosperity.

第四，美联储还承担着充分就业的责任。在中期内实现我们双重使命的两端并非非此即彼的选择。我不认为美联储的双重使命相互冲突。毕竟，高通胀本身对经济繁荣就极具破坏性。

Fifth, short-term interest rates are the predominant tool to achieve the dual mandate. Unconventional policies to spur economic activity may suit genuine crises but should otherwise be used sparingly, if at all.

第五，短期利率是实现双重使命的主要工具。刺激经济活动的非传统政策或许适用于真正的危机时期，但在其他情况下应当谨慎使用，甚至尽量不用。

Sixth, money matters. It's not fashionable these days, but my view is that money has something important to do with monetary policy. We should pay attention to money created by the central bank and money that comes from the banking and financial systems. It's true that financial innovations and other factors alter the mechanics that link the monetary base, the velocity of money, and the broader economy. But that is scarcely a reason to ignore the ultimate effects of money on financial conditions and prices.

第六，货币至关重要。这在当今虽然不太时髦，但我的观点是：货币与货币政策有着极其重要的联系。我们应当密切关注央行创造的货币以及来自银行和金融体系的货币。诚然，金融创新和其他因素改变了将基础货币、货币流通速度与实体经济联系起来的机制，但这绝不是忽视货币对金融状况和物价最终影响的理由。

Finally, a quieter Fed, more purposeful in its communications, is better able to meet its objectives. And we can be held accountable for delivering on our remit—the only true test of our credibility. To borrow a line from General Chuck Yeager, "At the moment of truth, there are either reasons or results."

最后，一个更加沉静、沟通更具目的性的美联储，能更好地达成其目标。而且我们应当为履行职责而接受问责——这是对我们公信力唯一真正的检验。借用查克·耶格尔（Chuck Yeager）将军的一句话：“在决战时刻，摆出来的要么是借口，要么是结果。”

The Economy Today 当下的经济形势

Now, given these principles, how do I read the economy today? What's really going on outside the window?

现在，基于上述原则，我如何看待当下的经济？窗外究竟正在发生什么？

You may have read in the July minutes the unanimous view of the FOMC: Labor markets were stable, and output was solid. But inflation remained too high. A good majority of my colleagues and I thought the wiser course was to await new information in the intermeeting period—especially given possible developments in supply chains, investment flows, and geopolitics—before deciding whether a change in interest rate policy was advisable. And we expressed our joint readiness to act as circumstances might require.

大家可能已经在 7 月份的会议纪要中读到了 FOMC 的一致观点：劳动力市场保持稳定，产出稳固，但通胀依然过高。我和绝大多数同事认为，在决定是否宜调整利率政策之前，更明智的做法是在两次会议之间的窗口期等待新信息的出炉——特别是考虑到供应链、投资流动和地缘政治方面的潜在变化。同时，我们共同表达了根据情势需要随时采取行动的准备。

For my part, today I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened. One indicator of strength is how well an economy holds up to shocks. On that score, both Main Street and Wall Street have been remarkably resilient.

就我个人而言，今天我对经济的整体表现印象深刻，而且这种势头似乎有所增强。衡量经济实力的一个指标是其抵御冲击的能力。在这一点上，实体经济和华尔街都表现出了非凡的韧性。

Several observations:

以下是几点观察：

Business capital expenditures—the seed corn of future economic growth—are rising rapidly. The four-quarter change in investment in equipment and intangibles has been around 9 percent, its highest growth rate since 2021. More than half of the cap-ex growth this year can likely be ascribed to the buildout related to AI.

企业资本支出——未来经济增长的“种子”——正在迅速增加。设备和无形资产投资的四个季度同比增速约为 9%，创下 2021 年以来的最高增速。今年资本支出增长的一半以上可能归功于与 AI 相关的建设投资。

For firms in the S&P 500, profits have grown by more than 20 percent over the past year. Profit margins are quite elevated, relative to history. Overall equity market volatility is low. We're staying keenly focused on market internals, watching performance across sectors.

标普 500 指数成分股企业的利润在过去一年增长了 20% 以上。与历史水平相比，利润率处于相当高的水平。股票市场整体波动率处于低位。我们持续密切关注市场内部动态，审视各行业的表现。

Expectations for growth in both cap-ex and corporate earnings are running quite high. I will continue to watch the change in their growth rates, the second derivative. The follow-on effects on asset prices, business confidence, consumer income, and spending are equally important to gauge.

对资本支出和企业盈利的增长预期目前都处于相当高的水平。我将继续观察其增长率的变化（即二阶导数）。对资产价格、商业信心、居民收入和支出的后续连锁效应同样是需要衡量的重要方面。

Credit spreads on corporate bonds and leveraged loans are near the low ends of their historical ranges, and issuance volumes in these markets have been quite strong this year. Looking beyond fixed-income markets to the banking business, in the July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, banks tell us that standards for commercial and industrial loans are on the easier end of their historical range. That helps explain the growth we've seen this year in those loans. Credit and loan markets are showing few signs of policy restraint.

企业债券和杠杆贷款的信用利差接近其历史区间的底部，这些市场的发行量今年表现相当强劲。从固定收益市场转向银行业务来看，在 7 月份的《高级信贷专员银行借贷意见调查》中，银行告诉我们，工商业贷款的标准处于其历史区间偏宽松的一端。这有助于解释我们今年在这些贷款领域看到的增长。信贷和贷款市场几乎没有显现出政策受限的迹象。

Certain sectors—like housing and agriculture—are showing strains. But, on balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.

某些行业——如房地产和农业——正在显现压力。但总体而言，我很难将广泛的金融环境描述为具有限制性（restrictive）。

Real consumer spending has been healthy despite the shocks, increasing more than 2 percent over the past four quarters. Combining consumption with the brisk investment we've observed, private domestic final purchases (PDFP) has also risen. PDFP has increased at a pace of nearly 3 percent so far this calendar year. That's a measure that typically carries more signal than gross domestic product, and the trend here too is positive.

尽管遭遇冲击，实际居民消费依然保持健康，过去四个季度的增幅超过 2%。将消费与我们观察到的强劲投资相结合，国内私人最终采购（PDFP）也出现了上升。今年至今，PDFP 的增速接近 3%。该指标通常比国内生产总值（GDP）传递出更多有效信号，且这里的趋势同样积极。

On the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, our country is doing well. Labor markets are quite stable. The jobless rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low by historical standards and has not changed much for a couple of years. Unemployment claims, on a four-week average—an empirically robust real-time indicator—are near their lowest level in decades.

在美联储双重使命的就业端，我国表现良好。劳动力市场相当稳定。4.1% 的失业率以历史标准来看依然偏低，且近两年来变化不大。作为经验上稳健的实时指标，四周移动平均初请失业金人数接近数十年来的最低水平。

In my view, the relatively low turnover in today's labor market is partly a result of the significant rematching between employers and employees that happened at scale in the post-pandemic environment.

在我看来，当今劳动力市场相对较低的人员流动率，部分原因在于疫情后时期劳资双方大规模发生并完成的重大重新匹配。

When labor supply is barely growing, monthly job gains are naturally going to run low. There are always areas of concern in the labor market—for example, among recent graduates. In general, though, people who want to work, by and large, are holding or finding jobs. They may well be concerned about possible future labor disruptions, but as of now, I believe the labor markets are consistent with full employment.

当劳动力供给几乎没有增长时，每月的就业岗位增量自然会处于较低水平。劳动力市场中总有一些令人担忧的领域——例如应届毕业生群体。但总体而言，想工作的人绝大多数都保住了工作或找到了工作。他们可能确实会担忧未来潜在的用工受扰，但就目前而言，我认为劳动力市场与充分就业是一致的。

But on the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the 12-month change in the PCE price index, stands at 3.7 percent, while the six-month change is 4.1 percent. The comparable measures from the consumer price index (CPI) are also elevated, as are the core measures of both PCE and CPI inflation. None of these measures are perfect, but they all tell a similar story: Inflation is running above our 2 percent target. So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices.

但在我们使命的物价稳定端，数据更令人担忧。美联储首选的通胀指标——PCE 物价指数的 12 个月变化率为 3.7%，而 6 个月变化率则为 4.1%。消费者价格指数（CPI）的相应指标同样高企，PCE 和 CPI 的核心通胀指标亦是如此。这些指标虽然都非完美无缺，但它们传达出相似的信号：通胀依然高于我们 2% 的目标。因此，美联储目前的首要焦点应当放在物价上。

The job for policymakers is to capture underlying trend inflation—that is, the generalized change in prices in the economy, unaffected by idiosyncratic factors. We want to gauge whether underlying inflation is rising, falling, or stuck in place. We also want to understand not just the direction of travel, but also the speed. Each of these broad inflation measures has fallen significantly from their 2022 heights. But progress over the past two years has been modest.

政策制定者的任务是把握“潜在趋势通胀”——即不受特殊偶然因素影响的、经济中普遍的价格变动。我们希望评估潜在通胀是在上升、下降还是停滞不前。我们不仅想了解其演进方向，还想了解其变动速度。尽管这些广泛的通胀指标相比 2022 年的高点已显著下降，但过去两年的进展却十分有限。

And while this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.

虽然今年夏天的 PCE 和 CPI 读数好于预期，但它们并未告诉我潜在趋势已出现实质性改善。

The data also show moderate wage growth. But in tracking underlying inflation, wage growth has not proven a reliable indicator of future inflation for a very long time.

数据还显示工资增长温和。但在追踪潜在通胀方面，长期以来的经验证明，工资增长并非预测未来通胀的可靠指标。

To try to gauge underlying inflation, I find it instructive to disaggregate the 199 individual components of the PCE price measure. Over the past 12 months, 54 percent of goods and services in the PCE basket showed price increases above 3 percent. This is well below the post-pandemic highs of about 77 percent, but it remains well above the level of 32 percent in the two decades that preceded the pandemic.

为了尝试衡量潜在通胀，我认为将 PCE 物价指标的 199 个细分组成部分进行拆解极具启发性。在过去 12 个月中，PCE 篮子中 54% 的商品和服务价格涨幅超过 3%。这虽远低于疫情后约 77% 的峰值，但仍显著高于疫情前二十年间 32% 的平均水平。

Looking over just the past six months, the conclusion is similar: Of goods and services in the PCE basket, 49 percent showed annualized price increases above 3 percent. Again, this is well below the post-pandemic highs but still quite elevated.

仅观察过去 6 个月，结论也是类似的：在 PCE 篮子中的商品和服务中，有 49% 呈现出超过 3% 的年化价格涨幅。同样，这虽远低于疫情后的峰值，但仍处于相当高的水平。

The recent rise in overall commodity prices also bears watching. What we need to judge is whether trends indicate upside inflation risks.

近期大宗商品整体价格的上涨同样值得关注。我们需要研判的是，这些趋势是否预示着通胀面临上行风险。

It matters, too, whether the inflation readings of the past five-plus years have seeped into expectations. The good news is that measures of inflation expectations in the medium term, by and large, look stable. And inflation compensation measures from the swaps market send a strong and similar message.

过去五年多的通胀读数是否已经渗透到公众预期中，这一点同样重要。好消息是，中期通胀预期的各项指标大体保持稳定，掉期市场的通胀补偿指标也传递出强烈且一致的信号。

Especially in light of recent developments, it is a credit to the Fed as an institution and consistent with the best of the Fed's traditions that market prices show confidence that we will deliver price stability. And I can assure you... they're right.

特别是鉴于近期的事态发展，市场价格展现出对我们将实现物价稳定的信心，这是美联储作为一家机构的声誉体现，也符合美联储最优秀的传统。我可以向大家保证……市场的判断是正确的。

The thing about market measures of inflation expectations in economic history is that they tend to look strong and durable until they don't. Those expectations are not pushed around easily, and right now they are well anchored. But they must be closely minded. It's the Fed's job to make sure that inflation expectations do not get unanchored.

纵观经济历史，基于市场的通胀预期指标的特点在于：在崩溃之前，它们往往看起来坚不可摧。这些预期不会轻易动摇，目前也锚定得很好。但必须严密防范。确保通胀预期不发生脱锚是美联储的职责所在。

There is one signal nobody can miss: The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. And that is where it belongs.

有一个信号任何人都不容忽视：持续 65 个月居高不下的通胀责任，完全在中央银行。这份责任理应由央行承担。

Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That's our job... our mandate... and our charge to keep.

这是我的标准：我们必须确信潜在通胀正明确且以足够的速度向我们的目标迈进。否则，我们就还有工作要做。这是我们的工作……我们的使命……以及我们必须坚守的职责。

Conclusion 结语

I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision.

我今天站在这里，承诺的是坚守原则纪律，而非提前做出某项具体决定。

My Fed colleagues and I are hardly the first to hold these positions in a time of great consequence. We are determined to redeem the time by doing our very best work.

我和我的美联储同事们绝非首批在重大历史关头承担这些重任的人。我们决心全力以赴做好工作，不负时代所托。

We take our responsibility seriously, with humility and with resolve. So much depends on choices we make. Sound monetary policy helps households and businesses to prosper. When carried out effectively, it broadens and deepens the momentum of our economy and helps to secure America's leadership in the world. And I know that our country needs us to think carefully and act wisely. Wisburg

我们以谦逊和坚定的态度严肃对待我们的职责。太多的事情取决于我们所做的抉择。稳健的货币政策有助于家庭和企业繁荣发展。如果执行得当，它能拓展并深化我们经济的发展势头，并有助于捍卫美国在世界上的领导地位。我知道，我们的国家需要我们深思熟虑、明智行事。

It is a tremendous honor to serve once again at the Federal Reserve. I am truly grateful for the encouragement and good counsel I've received from my colleagues... and from so many of you in this room. For that, and for your kind attention this morning, I thank you.

能够再次在美联储任职是一项莫大的荣誉。我由衷感谢从同事们……以及在座各位中获得的鼓励与良策。为此，也感谢大家今天上午的悉心聆听，谢谢大家。