【关注】文晶：从慕尼黑到多哈，全球南方如何重塑世界发展格局（中英文）

8月12日，盘古智库高级研究员，清华大学战略与安全研究中心博士后、助理研究员，中国论坛媒体传播主任文晶在环球时报英文版（Global Times）发表题为“‘Developed vs developing’narrative insufficient to capture today’s diverse devt realities”（《“发达国家—发展中国家” 二元叙事已难概括当今世界发展格局》）的评论文章。作者结合最近在欧洲田野调研的经历，审视德国等传统工业强国面临的转型困境，同时解读中国式现代化、卡塔尔“2030愿景”等国家的发展实践。文章认为，全球南方国家崛起正在重塑旧有的“中心‑边缘”结构，世界现代化图景正由单一走向多元模式。

本文作者系盘古智库高级研究员、清华大学战略与安全研究中心博士后、中国论坛媒体传播主任文晶，文 章首发于《环球时报》。

本文大约2600字，读完约6分钟。

近日，笔者带领清华大学无穹书院学生赴瑞士、德国开展海外调研。返程途中，从慕尼黑经多哈转机回国，短短几个小时的旅程，却有一种强烈的时空错位感。抵达多哈哈马德国际机场时，其现代化的基础设施、高效的运营管理以及国际化的服务水平，与此前在德国一周经历的铁路延误和部分公共服务体验形成鲜明对比。离开慕尼黑当天，笔者曾与一位同样因地铁故障受困的印度年轻人交流，他也感叹类似情况在印度都不常见。此前，已有学生先行抵达北京，调侃称“回国有种劫后重生的感觉”。当然，这种感受更多源于在慕尼黑参观调研期间连续遭遇交通延误所产生的直观体验，并不能简单作为评价一个国家发展水平的依据。但正是这些微观体验，给笔者观察全球发展格局的变化提供了具体而鲜活的窗口。

过去一个世纪以来，全球发展的叙事是围绕以德国为代表的欧洲工业革命、美国经济与科技领先以及发展中国家奋力追赶的模式中展开的。二战后德国用了不到十年的时间就摆脱了战争阴影，逐步崛起成为经济发达科技领先的欧洲强国。德国战后崛起既源于内部的制度建设，也得益于外部环境。西德通过国家引导型经济政策推动工业复兴，同时受益于美国马歇尔计划的援助，并借助与法国共同推动欧洲一体化，融入更广阔的欧洲市场。如今，德国依然拥有世界领先的工业体系、制造能力以及高水平科研和技术创新体系。此次参观宝马博物馆和博世公司，可以直观感受到德国汽车产业的深厚积累：从整车制造到发动机、零部件，德国形成了高度成熟和集成化的产业生态。但与此同时，德国的现代化模式也面临新的挑战。一方面，基础设施老化和行政效率下降正在影响其发展活力，德国铁路等公共设施长期维护不足，特斯拉柏林工厂建设过程中也曾遭遇审批周期长、官僚程序复杂等问题。另一方面，德国以长期研发和工程积累见长的创新模式，在人工智能等快速迭代领域面临新的竞争压力。德国当前面对的并非简单的衰落，而是传统工业强国如何适应数字时代和全球竞争新格局的转型挑战。

与之形成鲜明对比的是，以卡塔尔为代表的海湾国家和中国等全球南方经济体，正通过国家发展战略、基础设施建设和产业升级探索不同于西方的现代化路径。卡塔尔“2030国家愿景”的核心理念，是在卡塔尔凭借石油天然气等能源优势完成资本原始积累，工业现代化取得一定成效的基础上，推动卡塔尔从资源型经济发展模式向多元开放型经济转型，并致力于实现共同富裕。多哈哈马德机场正是这一战略的象征符号，它不仅是一座连接全球的航空枢纽，更是全球枢纽型经济的重要节点。中国式现代化则展现了另一种规模化发展路径。以超大规模人口为基础，通过持续推进基础设施建设、科技创新和产业升级，实现从制造业大国向创新型经济体的转型。其核心是在自身国情基础上探索经济发展、社会进步和绿色转型相结合的发展道路。卡塔尔和中国的发展实践表明，全球南方经济体正在通过不同路径提升基础设施建设、城市治理和公共服务能力。从这个层面看，全球南方崛起已不仅体现为经济数据上的增长，而是可以被切身感知的发展现实。

以德国为代表的西方工业国家，曾凭借资本积累、技术优势和全球价值链分工，在现代国际经济秩序中占据重要位置。但近年来，中国、卡塔尔等全球南方经济体的发展正在推动全球经济格局发生深刻变化。传统意义上由发达国家主导、发展中国家追赶的“中心—边缘”结构正在被重新塑造，“发达国家-发展中国家”的二元叙事也越来越难以全面解释今天世界的发展现实。

从基础设施建设、城市治理到公共服务能力，一些全球南方经济体已经在特定领域展现出与传统工业国家竞争甚至领先的能力。但这并不意味着传统发达国家优势的消失，而是全球现代化正在呈现更加多元的路径。全球南方的崛起不仅体现为经济规模的增长，更体现为不同国家基于自身资源禀赋、发展战略和制度能力，对现代化道路的探索。世界现代化的图景，正在从单一模式走向多元模式。

Recently, I led students from Tsinghua University's Wuqiong College on an overseas research trip to Switzerland and Germany. On our return journey, we transferred through Doha en route from Munich back to China. Arriving at Doha's Hamad International Airport, its modern infrastructure, efficient operations and high-standard international services stood in sharp contrast to the week-long experience of train delays and other public service shortcomings we had encountered in Germany. On the day we left Munich, I spoke with a young Indian man who was stranded due to a subway disruption; he remarked that even in India this would be a rare occurrence. Earlier, some students who had already arrived in Beijing joked that "returning to China felt like a rebirth."

Of course, such impressions largely stem from the consecutive transportation disruptions during our stay in Munich and should not be taken as a simple measure of any country's development level. Yet these micro-level experiences offer a vivid and tangible window for observing shifts in global development patterns.

Over the past century, the narrative of global development has revolved around the Industrial Revolution led by Europe - exemplified by Germany-US economic and technological supremacy and the arduous catching-up efforts of developing countries.

Today, Germany retains a world-class industrial system, manufacturing prowess, and high-caliber research and innovation ecosystem. Visits to the BMW Museum and Bosch offered a direct sense of the German automotive industry's deep roots. From complete vehicle manufacturing to engines and components, Germany has developed a highly mature and integrated industrial ecosystem.

Yet, Germany's modernization model faces fresh challenges. Germany's innovation model - built on long-term R&D and engineering accumulation - now faces competitive pressures in fast-iteration fields such as artificial intelligence. What Germany confronts is not simple decline, but the adaptive challenge facing traditional industrial powers navigating the digital age and a new global competitive landscape.

In stark contrast, Gulf states like Qatar and major Global South economies such as China are pioneering modernization pathways distinct from the Western model, through national development strategies, infrastructure building and industrial upgrading. The core vision of Qatar's "National Vision 2030" is to leverage its energy advantages in oil and natural gas for primary capital accumulation and initial industrial modernization.

Meanwhile, Chinese modernization, presents an alternative large-scale development path. Anchored in a super-large population, it pursues continuous infrastructure improvement, technological innovation and industrial upgrading, transforming from a manufacturing powerhouse into an innovation-driven economy. The essence is to forge a development trajectory that integrates economic growth, social progress and green transition in line with national conditions. The experiences of Qatar and China demonstrate that Global South economies are enhancing their infrastructure, urban governance and public service capacities through diverse approaches.

Western industrial nations like Germany once occupied pivotal positions in the modern international economic order, thanks to capital accumulation, technological advantages and their role in the global value chain. Yet in recent years, the development of Global South economies - including China and Qatar - is profoundly reshaping global economic dynamics.

The conventional "center-periphery" structure, long dominated by developed countries and characterized by developing nations playing catch-up, is being recalibrated. The binary narrative of "developed versus developing" is increasingly insufficient to capture today's diverse developmental realities.

From infrastructure and urban governance to public service delivery, some Global South economies have demonstrated competitiveness and even leadership in specific domains relative to traditional industrial nations. This does not mean the advantages of the developed world have vanished; rather, it signals that global modernization is becoming more pluralistic. The rise of the Global South is reflected not only in growing economic heft, but also in the distinct paths countries chart based on their resource endowments, strategic choices and institutional capabilities. The global landscape of modernization is evolving from a single model toward a multiplicity of models.■

文章首发于《环球时报》

图文编辑：张洵

责任编辑：刘菁波