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一年前的这个时候,特朗普向全球发动关税战,好像是地球人合起来薅了美国人的羊毛,然后到了他这儿,要一股脑全部薅回来。特朗普把那天(4月2日)叫做“解放日”。一年过去了,美国薅回来多少羊毛?我们来看看特朗普的成绩单:
On April 2, 2025, Trump announced that he was liberating America from the scourge of imports. The worst predicted effects have not materialized, in part because Trump quickly backed off on some of the tariffs. Nor, however, have jobs and factories come “roaring back.” Manufacturing has shed tens of thousands of jobs, continuing a slide that began in 2023. Research finds that tariffs are passed on to Americans at rates of up to 96 percent, rather than paid by foreign countries, as Trump claims. Tariffs have raised the prices of imported and domestic goods alike, as dampened competition invites U.S. producers to charge more. They have also failed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, a principal if dubious goal of the president. American consumers, including American producers, can be forgiven if they do not feel liberated.
上面的叙述告诉我们:工作机会和迁走的工厂没有乌央乌央地回到美国来,美国制造业还削减了数万个职位,延续了自2023年以来的下滑趋势;关税成本有高达96% 转嫁给美国了消费者承担,而不是像特朗普所声称的那样由外国支付;关税推高了进口商品的价格,从而让国内的物价攀升;关税大棒也没有降低美国的财政赤字。
总之,要是美国消费者没有感觉自己被解放的话,那是可以被原谅的。(American consumers, including American producers, can be forgiven if they do not feel liberated.)
2016年,特朗普上台,开始了他的推特治国(今天改成“真相truth social”治国),和他的前任不同,也和世界上大多数领袖不同,他的绝大部分政策(包括人事任免)都是通过社交媒体进行直播的,人们看得到的是即兴表演、朝令夕改,其实我估计看不到的那些部分,不过是在为看得到的这部分补台、填缝。习惯了戏剧化的表演,所有的一切都重在当下的效果,至于以后,就如同一部长长的美剧,后面的情节都会被编辑“圆”过去,一季一季地播出,播了几年,人们对于前面的剧情早忘了,烂不烂尾,后面再说,就算烂了,中间这么多季下来,你总有喜欢的吧?再说了,美国人老把move on挂在嘴上,哪天特朗普谢幕,新的剧又来了,谁还会在乎老剧中的哪些烂梗?
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