外媒最近在说的“TACO”是什么意思？

最近，“TACO”一词再次进入公众视野。

别误会，这并不是指墨西哥卷饼，而是一个英文缩略词——“Trump Always Chickens Out”（特朗普总是临阵退缩）。

这一说法最早由《金融时报》专栏作家罗伯特·阿姆斯特朗提出，原本用于形容特朗普在关税政策上的反复——先强硬加码，再推迟、降级甚至撤回。

"TACO trade", which stands for "Trump always chickens out", was coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong but has since spread across Wall Street and the internet, mocking the president's back-and-forth on tariff policies.

有记者当面向特朗普提及这一说法，他显然颇为不满：“哦，我退缩？这说法可真有意思，我从没听过。”他随后反问：“你管这叫退缩？”并批评这是一个“恶毒的问题”。

"Oh, I chicken out? Isn't that nice? I've never heard that," Trump said.

"You call that chickening out?" Trump asked, appearing visibly agitated by the question, which he called "nasty".

如今，这一带有讽刺意味的标签，似乎也开始被用于解读当前的伊朗局势。

4月6日，特朗普在白宫向伊朗发出一项极为具体的威胁：如果伊朗未能在美东时间7日20时前达成协议以重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，他将发动一场历时4小时的空袭（）。

这一表态迅速引发外界猜测：如果伊朗未作出回应，特朗普是否真的会采取军事行动，还是会再次出现所谓的“TACO时刻”？

澳大利亚《世纪报》援引澳大利亚美国研究中心高级研究员布鲁斯·沃尔普的分析称，特朗普有高达90%的可能性会兑现其威胁。

Given all of that, Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow at Australia's United States Studies Centre, believes there is a 90 percent chance Trump will follow through with his threat to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure, in what would be a significant escalation of the war.

特朗普一向倾向于保留“出其不意”的空间，其授权军事行动时通常缺乏明确预告。而此次不同，他将条件与时间表完全公开。这种高度具体化的表态，也在一定程度上压缩了其政策回旋空间。

一旦未能达成协议却又选择收手，外界很可能将其视为特朗普本任期内最典型的一次“TACO时刻”，并在象征意义上为伊朗带来一场重要胜利。

When he authorises attacks, it tends to be with little direct warning. In this case, it's all out in the open.

That's awfully specific, and it gives him little room to move if there is no deal.

If he were to back down from the ledge, it would be the biggest TACO moment of this term, and hand Iran a huge symbolic victory.

值得注意的是，在伊朗问题上，特朗普“强硬表态—随后收缩”的情况已多次出现。

美联社报道称，特朗普最早将最后期限设在3月23日，但此后数周内不断反复，在强硬威胁、宣布延期以及声称谈判“进展顺利”等表态之间来回摇摆，甚至有时在同一段讲话中同时释放相互矛盾的信号。

Trump's previous deadline was for March 23, but that shifted several times over the ensuing weeks as Trump oscillated between heated threats, announced delays and proclamations that the negotiations were going well, sometimes in the same statement.

ensuing /ɪnˈsjuːɪŋ/ 随后的

oscillate /ˈɒsɪleɪt/ 动摇

那么，这一次，局势将如何发展？

来源：世纪报 美联社 哥伦比亚广播公司

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