哪些国家最依赖波斯湾的石油和天然气？

The war in the Middle East has halted most of the oil and gas trade from the region, forcing countries thousands of miles to contend with their energy supplies suddenly vanishing.

中东战事已导致该地区大部分油气贸易陷入停滞，迫使万里之外的各国应对能源供应骤然中断的局面。

The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly a fifth of the world’s energy needs. As Iran effectively blocks shipments, international prices for oil and gas have shot up. That in turn has meant gasoline, jet fuel and other products have become costlier — hurting drivers, business owners and others from Los Angeles to Lahore, Pakistan. As the world becomes gripped by the energy crisis, some nations are feeling the loss more acutely.

波斯湾的能源供应约占全球总需求的五分之一。随着伊朗实质性封锁航运，国际油气价格大幅飙升。汽油、航空煤油等成品油价格随之水涨船高，从洛杉矶到巴基斯坦拉合尔，各地的车主、企业主及其他群体均受到冲击。全球陷入能源危机之际，部分国家受到的冲击尤为严重。

Asian countries are the biggest buyers of Persian Gulf energy

亚洲是波斯湾能源最大买家

In 2024, nearly 21 million barrels of oil a day crossed through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world. Four-fifths of that supply went to Asia.

2024年，每天约有2100万桶原油经连接波斯湾与全球市场的狭窄水道霍尔木兹海峡运输，其中五分之四的供应流向亚洲。

China has long been the biggest purchaser of oil and gas from Persian Gulf nations. And with more than a third of its total supply coming from the region, the disruption is significant for Beijing. But other countries are almost entirely reliant on the region for their energy needs.

中国长期以来是波斯湾国家油气资源的最大采购方，全国超三分之一的油气供应来自该地区，因此此次供应中断对北京影响重大。但还有一些国家的能源需求几乎完全依赖该地区。

Pakistan has considered imposing a four-day workweek, and remote school and work, in order to preserve energy stockpiles. A state-led fund in Thailand, to subsidize the cost of fuel when prices surge, plunged into a deficit this month.

巴基斯坦已考虑推行每周四天工作制、线上办公与线上教学，以保存能源储备。泰国用于油价飙升时补贴燃油成本的国有基金本月已陷入赤字。

In India, where the economy depends on the Middle East for roughly 40 percent of the country’s oil imports and 80 percent of its gas, a shortage of cooking gas is squeezing households. And across Asia, fliers are being stranded because airlines running low on jet fuel have canceled thousands of flights.

在印度，全国约40%的原油进口、80%的天然气进口依赖中东，烹饪用气短缺正给普通家庭带来压力。在整个亚洲，由于航空燃油库存告急，航空公司已取消数千架次航班，大量旅客滞留。

Europe has been more insulated, sort of

欧洲一定程度上受冲击较小

Europe has traditionally been less reliant on the Gulf than Asia has been. It used to get most of its natural gas from Russia, but in recent years it has relied more on the United States and Norway. But the continent has had to endure one energy crisis after another in recent years, including from Russia’s war with Ukraine and the Western sanctions that followed.

与亚洲相比，欧洲传统上对海湾能源的依赖度更低。该地区曾主要从俄罗斯进口天然气，但近年来更多依赖美国和挪威。不过近几年，欧洲不得不接连应对能源危机，包括俄乌战争及随后的西方对俄制裁。

Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of oil and second-largest producer of gas, and the sales of its energy products have been significantly restricted while Moscow continues its invasion of Ukraine.

俄罗斯是全球第三大产油国、第二大产气国，在莫斯科持续入侵乌克兰期间，其能源产品的销售受到了严格限制。

This current crisis comes as European countries, confronting lackluster economic output, try to rebuild their industrial bases and fend off competition from cheaper Chinese exports.

本轮危机爆发之际，欧洲各国正面临经济增长乏力的困境，试图重建工业基础，抵御价格更低的中国出口商品带来的竞争。

Confronted with soaring prices since its attack with Israel on Iran, the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil that is currently at sea, hoping to ease the global supply and markets in the process. The European Union has not made similar moves.

自与以色列共同袭击伊朗以来，美国面临油价飙升，为此临时解除了对目前在途俄罗斯原油的制裁，希望借此缓解全球供应紧张局面、稳定市场。欧盟尚未出台类似举措。

Parts of Africa will be hit hard

非洲部分地区将遭受重创

African nations, like many other countries in the global south, could feel the disruption unevenly. Seychelles, the island nation off the east coast of Africa, imported almost all of its energy from Gulf states in 2024. Mauritius has had a similar reliance, while Nigeria, an oil-rich state and a member of the OPEC Plus oil cartel, has traditionally imported relatively few fossil fuels from the Middle East.

与众多全球南方国家一样，非洲各国受到程度不一的供应冲击。非洲东海岸的岛国塞舌尔2024年几乎全部能源都从海湾国家进口；毛里求斯对海湾能源的依赖度与之相近。石油资源丰富的欧佩克+成员国尼日利亚则传统上从中东进口的化石燃料相对较少。

But as the war continues, the impact is being felt beyond the imports of oil and gas. The Persian Gulf is a dominant source of fertilizer, partly because the region’s abundance of energy has spurred the development of factories that make the raw materials for many types of agricultural chemicals.

但随着战事持续，其影响已超出油气进口范畴。波斯湾是全球化肥的核心供应地，部分原因在于该地区充沛的能源供应，推动了各类农用化工原料生产工厂的发展。

A sustained rise in the cost of fertilizer could force governments in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa to subsidize the cost of growing crops or otherwise watch food prices climb. That could add to debt burdens afflicting many lower-income countries.

化肥价格持续上涨可能迫使南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲国家政府为农作物种植提供补贴，否则只能眼睁睁看着食品价格攀升。这可能会进一步加重许多低收入国家本就沉重的债务负担。

The Americas and elsewhere are feeling broader economic shocks

美洲及其他地区正面临广泛经济冲击

The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. That means the impact of halting the energy trade from the Middle East is much less severe.

美国是全球最大的油气生产国，这意味着中东能源贸易停滞对其造成的冲击要小得多。

But the United States and other countries in the region that do not import great quantities from the Gulf are still feeling economic strain. The jump in oil prices – to over $100 a barrel in recent weeks – has already weighed on other major economic factors.

即使如此，美国以及该地区其他不从海湾大量进口能源的国家依然感受到了经济压力。近几周，飙升至每桶100美元以上的油价已经拖累了其他核心经济指标。

The cost of gasoline has jumped by about a dollar a gallon nationally since the war began. American airlines have begun to cut flights because of fuel costs. Concerns about inflation have pushed mortgage rates to their highest level in three months, just weeks after they fell below 6 percent for the first time since 2022.

战事爆发以来，美国全国汽油均价每加仑上涨了约1美元。因燃油成本高企，美国航空公司已开始削减航班。对通胀的担忧推动抵押贷款利率升至三个月来最高水平，而就在几周前，利率刚自2022年以来首次跌破6%。

If the war drags on, or if oil and gas prices continue to rise, the damage will most likely grow, economists say. It is perhaps one reason why the White House has forcefully insisted that it does not need Middle Eastern oil — and is increasingly trying to use military force to stop Iran’s blockade of it.

经济学家表示，若战事持续，或是油气价格继续攀升，造成的损害大概率会进一步扩大。这或许也是白宫一方面强硬声称美国不需要中东石油，另一方面又愈发频繁地动用军事力量，试图打破伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡封锁的原因之一。