乳清蛋白最新行情分析及预测

星标“乳业在线”

作者：贝瑞克食品

在25年12月份的巴黎FIE展会后，如火如荼的乳清蛋白市场并没有随着冬季的到来降温，反而愈加疯狂，每周都在创出历史新高。支持WPC和WPI价格持续上涨的原因可能如下：

After the FIE Paris exhibition in December 2025, the red-hot whey protein market did not cool down with the arrival of winter; on the contrary, it grew even more frenzied, hitting new all-time highs week after week.The possible factors supporting the continuous price rises of WPC and WPI are as follows:

①减肥神药司美格鲁肽的注射人群基数持续扩大，根据25年11月份摩根士丹利的报告预估，全球累计使用司美格鲁肽和仿制药的总人群已经超过5000万，其中减重用途1600-1800万，降糖用途约2200-2500万。25年以后，随着其专利陆续到期，加拿大、印度和中国均有仿制药上市，使用人群基数还将逐年扩大，意味着未来很长一段时间，需求依然强劲。

The user base of people injecting the weight-loss wonder drug semaglutide has continued to expand. According to a Morgan Stanley report released in November 2025, the total number of people globally using semaglutide and its generic versions has exceeded 50 million. Among them, 16–18 million use it for weight loss, and about 22–25 million for blood glucose control. After 2025, as its patents gradually expire, generic versions will be launched in Canada, India and China, and the user base will keep growing year by year. This means demand will stay strong for a long time to come.

②因近期雀巢等乳企全球召回配方粉，涉事乳企需要重新生产大量产品补充其销售渠道，乳清蛋白作为配方粉基础原料遭到抢购，短期也加剧了乳清蛋白的价格上涨势头。

Recently, following the global recall of formula powder by dairy companies including Nestlé, the enterprises involved have had to mass-produce large quantities of products to replenish their sales channels.As an essential raw material for formula powder, whey protein has been met with panic buying, which has further intensified its upward price momentum in the short term.

③在FIE展会后，有部分客户在了解到WPC市场26年的价格趋势后，终于选择不再观望开始入场采购，比如印度市场，是欧洲80粉12月份最大的买家，基本把波兰产地的80粉期现货一扫而空。短期爆发的需求，同样加剧了供需矛盾。

After the FIE exhibition, some customers, having gained insight into the 2026 price trend of the WPC market, finally stopped adopting a wait-and-see approach and began to enter the market for procurement.The Indian market, for instance, was the largest buyer of European WPC 80 powder in December, having essentially cleared out both spot and forward volumes of Polish-origin WPC 80 powder.Such a short-term demand surge has further intensified the supply-demand imbalance.

④美加市场，因为星巴克高乳清蛋白饮品新品的畅销，其竞争对手Dunkin和Tim Hortons也推出了类似单品，美国的乳清蛋白需求持续旺盛。

In the US and Canadian markets, driven by the strong sales of Starbucks’ new highwheyprotein beverages, its competitors Dunkin’ and Tim Hortons have also launched similar products, resulting in sustained strong demand for whey protein in the United States.

⑤全球乳清蛋白产能受奶酪产能限制，加之部分WPC工厂转产附加值更高的产品，比如WPI、乳脂球膜蛋白、无乳糖乳清蛋白等，导致WPC产能并没有预期之内的增长。

Global whey protein production capacity is constrained by cheese output. In addition, some WPC plants have shifted production to higher value-added products such as WPI, milk fat globule membrane (MFGM) protein and lactose-free whey protein, resulting in no expected growth in WPC production capacity.

本周，我们收到欧洲产地最高报价已经超过突破了20000美金/吨，美国和新澳产地的WPC80的报价也纷纷突破了18000美金/吨。

This week, the highest quotations we received for Europeanorigin material have exceeded $ 20,000 per metric ton, while offers for WPC80 from US, Australian and New Zealand origins have also broken through $ 18,000 per ton.

我们将最新收集到的其他信息也跟各位分享，并尝试预测一下，因为WPC80和WPI90价格持续疯狂上涨后，会引起哪些连锁反应。

We will also share other latest information we have gathered with you, and attempt to forecast the chain reactions likely to be triggered by the continued sharp price increases of WPC80 and WPI90.

1、国内乳清蛋白24年-25年度乳清蛋白80粉进口量对比图

2024–2025Domestic WPC80 Import Volume Chart

①如我们上一期文章中预测，25年总进口量为35910吨，同比大跌9%。最新25年4季度和26年1季度国外期货快速攀升，我们预估26年上半年到货数量依然会同比减少，国内远期人民币价格将很快突破150元一公斤。

As predicted in our previous report, total imports in 2025 reached 35,910 metric tons, representing a sharp year-on-year decline of 9%.With overseas futures prices surging rapidly in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, we estimate that arrival volumes in the first half of 2026 will continue to fall year on year, and domestic forward RMB prices will soon break through 150 yuan per kilogram.

②国内规模以上乳清蛋白客户，26年2季度的库存基本已备齐，极少数客户已经备货到26年3季度。相比目前期货价格，大幅降低了其采购成本。但2季度国外期货150元/公斤左右的报价，是否坚持购买，依然是艰难的选择。

Major domestic whey protein customers have basically fully stocked up for Q2 2026, and a very small number have even prepared inventory through Q3 2026.This has greatly lowered their procurement costs compared with current futures prices.However, with overseas futures for Q2 quoted at around ￥150/kg, whether to continue purchasing remains a tough decision.

③因为80粉价格上涨过快过高，国内市场库存不高，且大部分代理商惜售心理严重，持货待涨。

As WPC80 prices have risen excessively and at an overly fast pace, domestic market inventory remains low, and most distributors are highly reluctant to sell, choosing to hold onto their stock in anticipation of further price hikes.

④从进口国别来说，德国以1.21万吨的进口量名列第一，美国和新西兰位列二三名，丹麦以3619吨成绩屈居第四。

In terms of importing countries, Germany ranked first with an import volume of 12,100 metric tons.The United States and New Zealand took second and third place respectively, while Denmark ranked fourth with 3,619 tons.

2、欧洲产地乳清蛋白市场行情汇总：

European Whey Protein Market Summary

①欧洲供应依然紧张，本周价格普遍涨到16000-17000欧元之间，versper网站显示，期货价格持续上涨且供应紧张的局面似乎在急剧，很多工厂已经超卖，导致已经签订合同的船期一直在顺延。

European supply remains tight, with prices generally rising to between €16,000 and €17,000 this week.According to Versper, the situation of continuous futures price increases and tight supply appears to be intensifying sharply. Many factories are oversold, leading to repeated delays in shipping schedules for already contracted orders.

②在巨大的利润诱惑下，欧洲乳企不再淡定。越来越多的乳清粉工厂，不再满足于生产低利润的乳清粉产品，开始谈论投资建设乳清蛋白新工厂的可行性。据我们了解，波兰、德国、俄罗斯等欧洲国家，26年下半年均有新厂投产计划。

Driven by huge profit margins, European dairy companies are no longer holding back.A growing number of whey powder manufacturers are no longer satisfied with producing low-margin whey powder products and are starting to discuss the feasibility of investing in new whey protein production plants. According to our information, European countries including Poland, Germany and Russia all have plans to launch new plants into operation in the second half of 2026.

3、欧洲24年度-25年度乳清蛋白出口数量对比图

2024–2025European Whey Protein Export VolumeChart

①欧洲25年WPC80粉出口总量为5.579万吨，同比24年5.58万吨基本持平，显示欧洲25年的WPC80的产能没有增加。

Europe’s total exports of WPC80 in 2025 were 55,790 metric tons, almost flat compared with 55,800 tons in 2024. This indicates that Europe’s WPC80 production capacity did not increase in 2025.

②从出口国别来看，美国、中国和东南亚是欧洲乳清蛋白25年年度的前三大出口地区。

In terms of export destinations, the United States, China and Southeast Asia were the top three export regions for European whey protein in 2025.

③欧洲大部分工厂2季度的货源基本售清，现货依然紧张。但最近两周，WPC80的涨幅明显高于WPI90，这一现象，可能是国际婴配巨头因蜡样芽孢杆菌事件的补货所导致的。热稳型号的WPC80粉之前跟速溶型号的价差，被迅速拉齐。

Most European factories have basically sold out their Q2 supplies, and spot availability remains tight. However, over the past two weeks, WPC80 has seen a significantly higher price increase than WPI90. This trend is likely driven by restocking by major international infant formula manufacturers following the Bacillus cereus incident.The price gap between heat-stable grade WPC80 and instant grade WPC80 has closed rapidly.

4、美国产地乳清蛋白市场行情汇总：

U.S. Whey Protein Market Summary

①美国需求依然强劲，受益于特医渠道和餐饮渠道的持续买进，期货价格持续创出新高，本周报价已经超过18000美金/吨。

Demand in the US remains strong.Supported by continuous purchases from the medical nutrition and catering channels, futures prices have kept hitting new highs, with quotations this week exceeding $18,000 per metric ton.

②美国25年年度共出口9.38万吨乳清蛋白80粉，同比增长5.41%；但出口中国的数量下跌明显，从一季度的平均月出口量866吨跌到四季度的平均月出口量566吨。我们预计26年的美国出口到中国的WPC数量还将进一步减少。

In the full year 2025, the US exported a total of 93,800 metric tons of WPC80, up 5.41% year on year. However, exports to China dropped significantly, from an average monthly export volume of 866 tons in Q1 to 566 tons in Q4. We expect the volume of WPC exported from the United States to China to decline further in 2026.

③根据美国USDA数据，美国25年1-10月份，受低靡价格拖累及消费不及预期，奶酪增产仅为2.2%，乳清液供应受限，新投产的WPC的产能利用率不足。11月份美国WPC80库存为6810吨，远低于其历史平均库存13600吨。

According to USDA data, in the United States from January to October 2025, cheese production rose by only 2.2% due to sluggish prices and weaker-than-expected consumption. The supply of liquid whey was constrained, and capacity utilization at newly commissioned WPC plants remained low. In November, U.S. WPC80 inventories stood at 6,810 metric tons, well below the historical average inventory of 13,600 metric tons.

5、新西兰产地最新市场情况：

Latest New ZealandMarket Update

恒天然本财年的乳清蛋白产能基本售罄，近期只偶尔投放菌落偏高的零散速溶80粉货源，二月初向全球招标392热稳型号，只有48吨可售，最后以17000美金以上价格成交，本周报价已经在18000美金以上，且无货可售。显示了市场的旺盛需求。

Fonterra's whey protein production capacity for the current fiscal year is virtually sold out. Recently, only scattered batches of instant WPC80 powder with high bacterial count have been occasionally supplied.

In early February, the company launched a global tender for its heat-stable grade 392 product, with only 48 tons available for sale. The tender was finally concluded at a price exceeding US$17,000.

The quoted price this week has risen above US$18,000, with no stock available for sale, indicating strong market demand.

因为WPC80和WPI90的价格持续上涨，连破历史新高，我们再来尝试预测一下，未来几个月会发生什么：

As prices of WPC80 and WPI90 continue to rise and repeatedly hit new all-time highs, we will now attempt to forecast what will happen in the coming months.

①短期来看，在今年2季度之前，国内WPC现货价格还会继续上涨。26年1季度我们预估国内每个月进口量在3200-3500吨，其中可流通数量（去掉国内工厂直签订单）还会进一步减少。我们相信，26年2季度，每个月可供20吨WPC80机动库存的国内经销商个数不会超过6家。

In the short term, domestic spot prices of WPC will continue to rise before Q2 this year.We estimate that monthly domestic imports in Q1 2026 will range from 3,200 to 3,500 metric tons, of which the tradable volume (excluding direct orders with domestic factories) will shrink further. We believe that in Q2 2026, the number of domestic distributors with 20 tons of flexible WPC80 inventory available per month will be no more than 10.

②因为WPC80和WPI90的价格如此之高，欧洲和美国26年增产的节奏会加速，特别是欧洲产地，越来越多的工厂会增产，未来的价格下跌的风险也会不断累积。

With WPC80 and WPI90 prices at such high levels, the pace of production expansion in Europe and the US will accelerate in 2026. This is particularly true for European supplies, where a growing number of plants will ramp up output, and the risk of a future price correction will continue to build.

③近期全球范围内，将乳清粉产能转为生产乳清蛋白或者分离蛋白的趋势越来越明显，所以，WPC35、D90、D70、D40和甜乳清粉的产能将进一步被压缩。从利润回报来说，WPI>WPC80>WPC35>D90>D40>甜乳清。所以，从产品利润率来说，工厂只有在高利润的产品产能饱和或者没有产能的情况下，才会考虑生产低一级别的产品。比如，据说菲仕兰将减少其明星产品E300的产能，更多生产WPC80；阿根廷产地的D40工厂基本全线停产，将乳清液卖给阿拉做WPC；德国BMI将缩小一半甜乳清粉产能，转而生产D90和WPC；法国红鸟3月份后，据称也不再接受甜乳清的订单，转而生产D90；乌拉圭科拿因为订单剧增，已经暂停D40报价；俄罗斯和白俄罗斯已经有中资资本筹备在当地投产WPC80产线.....

Globally, the trend of shifting whey powder production capacity to whey protein concentrate (WPC) or whey protein isolate (WPI) has become increasingly evident recently. As a result, production capacity for WPC35, D90, D70, D40 and sweet whey powder will be further reduced. In terms of profit margin, the hierarchy is: WPI > WPC80 > WPC35 > D90 > D40 > sweet whey.Therefore, from the perspective ofproduct profit return rate, factories will only consider producing lower-tier products when their capacity for higher-margin items is fully saturated or unavailable.

For example:

·Friesland is reportedly cutting capacity for its flagship product E300 to increase WPC80 output;

·D40 facilities in Argentina have mostly suspended production, selling whey permeate to Arla for WPC manufacturing;

·Germany’s BMI plans to halve its sweet whey powder capacity and shift to producing D90 and WPC;

·France’s Red Bird is said to stop accepting sweet whey orders starting March, switching to D90 production;

·Uruguay’s Conaprole has suspended D40 quotations due to a sharp surge in orders;

·Chinese-invested capital is already preparing to launch WPC80 production lines in Russia and Belarus.

在需求不变，供应量减少的大背景下，我们预测甜乳清、脱盐乳清粉和WPC35产品都将快速上涨。从投资回报率和供应稳定性的角度来考虑，不管是代理商还是终端工厂客户，都应该重点关注。

Against the backdrop of steady demand and reduced supply,we predict that prices of sweet whey, demineralized whey powder and WPC35 will rise sharply.From the perspectives of return on investment and supply stability, both distributors and end-user factories should focus closely on these products.

备注：本文所有内容为作者个人观点，仅作行业交流学习用，勿做商业用途，不构成任何投资建议，感谢各位同行专家在本文撰写过程中给予的资讯和意见支持！

Note: All content in this article represents the author's personal views. It is intended solely for industry exchange and learning purposes, shall not be used for commercial purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice. We would like to thank all peer experts for their information and opinions provided during the writing of this article!

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