大洋马夫“国际加油站”第25期：中美俄的“大三国演义”这样玩儿——用中俄的“南北朝并立”来实现中美的“东西方平衡”

美国公开对委内瑞拉、哥伦比亚、丹麦的“格陵兰岛”等国家和地区提出了具体的领土要求，这标志着全球自此重新进入了以强凌弱、以大欺小的丛林法则时代。那么、作为全球的三大国（可谓是全球的“三巨头”）之一的我们该如何进行所谓的“大三国演义”呢？

总的来说，稳住俄罗斯这头“北极熊”与我们保持“南北朝并立”的大局面，稳定北方之大局，这是根本。其次，安定朝鲜半岛、中南半岛、东南亚、中亚、中东等一众“小弟”不出事儿，整合全球南方国家一起维护世界和平与发展。同时，还得揪出日本这个爱挑事儿的奴才作为重点打击对象，狠打狠揍不手软，树立威严和权威，让美西方敢怒而不敢言。从而和美西方国家保持全球的“东西方”战略平衡。在闷声发大财中全面、系统的超越西方。

具体而言，在一定程度上来说，目前的我们还需要美国这个免费的“全球导师”对我们免费主动的提供某种“监督”（也是某种“补短”）。保持与美国的战略平衡是符合我们目前阶段的国情发展需求的，因此，美国这个“战略竞争对手”是可以用来平衡的！但是，俄罗斯这头“北极熊”是不能够得罪的，相反、与俄罗斯处好关系对于我们来说，利远远大于弊的。而我们唯一一个可以用来敲打的就是日本这个奴才了，无论是从天时、地利、人和，还是从天道、法理、人情等方面都是站得住脚的；相反，敲打或者暴揍日本，会赢来一片国际赞誉的。

一言以蔽之，中美俄的“大三国演义”中，尤其是在目前的欧洲和中东存在战事的情形下，我们不能够“受伤”，俄罗斯不能倒也不能输，美国不能赢也不能垮，世界秩序不能崩也不能乱。因为我们还需要时间，也需要腾挪的“空间”。我们最好的方式就是在一定程度上保持与俄罗斯的“南北朝并立”的关联关系，从而焊牢我们与美西方的“东西方平衡”。至少目前是最优解。

（以下是英文版 The next is English edition）

Global Refuel Station,Issue 25: How to Play the "Great Power Triangle" Among China, the US, and Russia – Using Sino-Russian "Coexistence Like Northern and Southern Dynasties" to Achieve Sino-US "East-West Balance"

(Afternoon, January 12, 2026)

The United States has publicly made specific territorial claims against Venezuela, Colombia, and regions like Greenland (Denmark), marking the global re-entry into an era of jungle law where the strong bully the weak and the big oppress the small. So, as one of the world's three great powers (arguably the global "big three"), how should we conduct the so-called "great power triangle" game?

Overall, the fundamental task is to stabilize Russia, this "Polar Bear," and maintain with it the grand situation of "coexistence like Northern and Southern Dynasties," thereby securing the overall stability of our northern flank. Secondly, we must ensure that a host of "younger brothers" – the Korean Peninsula, the Indochina Peninsula, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, etc. – do not run into trouble, and integrate Global South countries to jointly safeguard world peace and development. Simultaneously, we must single out Japan, that trouble-making vassal, as a key target for strike, striking hard and relentlessly to establish authority and prestige, making the US-led West dare to be angry but not to speak out. This allows us to maintain a global "East-West" strategic balance with Western nations, comprehensively and systematically surpassing the West while quietly amassing strength.

Specifically, to a certain extent, we currently still need the United States, this free "global tutor," to voluntarily provide us with a kind of "supervision" (which also serves as a form of "supplementing shortcomings"). Maintaining strategic balance with the US aligns with the development needs of our national conditions at this stage. Therefore, this "strategic competitor," the US, is useful for balancing! However, Russia, this "Polar Bear," must not be offended. On the contrary, maintaining good relations with Russia brings us far more benefits than drawbacks. The only entity we can use for signaling or coercive actions is Japan, that vassal. Such actions are justifiable whether viewed from the perspectives of timing, geography, popular support, or from the standpoints of cosmic principle, legality, and human sentiment. Conversely, taking action against or decisively striking Japan would garner widespread international acclaim.

In a nutshell, within the "great power triangle" among China, the US, and Russia – especially under the current circumstances of conflicts in Europe and the Middle East – we must not sustain "injuries," Russia must not collapse or lose, the US must not win or crumble, and the world order must not break down or descend into chaos. Because we still need time and also require maneuvering "space." Our optimal approach is to maintain, to a certain extent, a relationship of "coexistence like Northern and Southern Dynasties" with Russia, thereby solidifying our "East-West balance" with the US-led West. At least for now, this is the optimal solution.

大洋马夫

律师,历史领域爱好者

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