Alibaba Stocks Sink 7.6% on Q4 Revenue and AI-Driven Cloud Earnings Miss ami...

TMTPOST -- The American depositary receipts (ADRs) of Alibaba Group sank 7.6% on Thursday even though the U.S. stock market benchmark S&P 500 index added 0.4%, logging its four-day winning streak with the highest close since late February. China’s top e-commerce company underperformed as the top line miss highlighted drag of commerce headwinds amid intensifying global trade war, and earnings of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven cloud business disappointed Wall Street.

Credit：Alibaba Cloud

Alibaba posted revenue of RMB236.45 billion ($32.8 billion) for its fourth fiscal quarter ended March 31, less than analysts’ projection of RMB237.94 billion polled by LSEG. That represented a 7% year-over-year (YoY) increase in sales, cooling from a gain of 8% three months ago, the fastest pace of growth in more than a year.

The bottom line didn’t comfortably beat estimates as the previous quarters. On Non-GAAP basis, Alibaba earned RMB12.52 diluted earnings per American depositary share (ADS) for the March quarter with a 23% YoY increase, versus analyst expectations of RMB12.94 per ADS. Net income still fell short of expectation despite nearly quadrupling to RMB12.38 billion from a lower base from a year earlier. The 1203% YoY surge in net income was in part due to gains from Alibaba’s equity investment. Non-GAAP net income advanced 22% YoY to RMB29.85 billion. The non-GAAP adjusted EBITA, excluding share-based compensation expense, impairment of intangible assets and goodwill and certain other items,popped 35.5% YoY to RMB32.6 billion, in line with analysts’ estimates.

Alibaba CEO Eddie Wu said the past quarter and the full fiscal year demonstrated the ongoing effectiveness of the company’s “user first, AI-driven” strategy as its coress business growth continued to accelerate. “Driven by strong demand for AI, Cloud Intelligence Group quarterly revenue growth accelerated to 18%, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for the seventh consecutive quarter,” Wu said in a statement. “ Customer management revenue at Taobao and Tmall Group grew 12% this quarter, reflecting the sustained impact of investments in user experience and effective monetization.“

Alibaba’s bread and butter Taobao and Tmall Group, which includes two major online marketplaces, generated RMB101.37 billion for the March quarter. That represent a YoY gain of 9%, compared a 5% increase from October to December and analysts’ anticipated RMB97.8 billion. The adjusted EBITA of the biggest business segment grew 8% YoY to RMB41.75 billion, versus expected RMB39.3 billion. Alibaba said the EBITA gain was primarily due to the increase in revenue from customer management service, partly offset by the increase in investment in user experience and technology. Customer management revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter climbed 12% YoY to RMB71.08 billion following a 9% increase for the preceding quarter.

Taobao and Tmall is the only spotlight among Alibaba’s major divisions. The commerce business overseas suffered more than Wall Street anticipated in the face of U.S. hefty tariffs. Revenue from Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (ADIC) rose 22% YoY to RMB33.58 billion for the March quarter, following a 32% YoY increase three months ago, whereas analysts projectes sales to be RMB35 billion. The international division, which encompasses Lazada and the Temu-like AliExpress, has become the second biggest segment by sales since it overtook the cloud business in the quarter ended last December. The adjusted EBITA loss of the division narrowed 12.5% YoY to RMB3.57 billion, still worse than estimated loss of R3.4 billion.

CEO Wu on an earnings call acknowledged "uncertainties in global trade regulations" as a potential headwind, though he added that AIDC remained on track to achieve profitability in the coming fiscal year.

"International business missed but I'm not sure if it was due to AliExpress suffering from tariff impacts," said M Science analyst Vinci Zhang. "I thought it was interesting that they didn't highlight anything related to the U.S... That to me felt a bit deliberate."

The cloud unit delivered mixed results for the March quarter. Cloud Intelligence Group, which houses Alibaba’s AI-related projects and hosts computing power for external clients, brought RMB30.13 billion with a 18% YoY rise, slightly ahead of anlaysts expected RMB29.9 billion. That represented a double-digit growth rate for the second quarter following a 13% YoY increase in sales. Alibaba said acceleration of cloud revenue was mainly owing to the demand for AI. The company attributed it to an even faster public cloud revenue growth, including the increasing adoption of AI-related products, which was obviously benefited from the frenzy initiated by Chinese upstart DeepSeek.

However, the adjusted EBITA of Alibaba Cloud jumped 69% YoY to RMB2.42 billion, less than anticipation of RMB2.83 billion. That suggested a 22.9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in EBITA. And the EBITA margin unexpectedly dropped 1.9 percentage points QoQ to 8%, compared with estimated margin of 9.5%, down 0.4 points.

The earnings miss of Alibaba cloud division clouded an outlook already weighed by the Trump administration’s tightening export controls on AI chips targeting China. “The AI business that everyone was eyeing, and Alicloud’s computing business, both came in below expectations,” said Li Chengdong, head of Beijing-based internet think-tank Haitun.