华泰｜宏观：5月FOMC - 联储继续观望，强调不确定性以及滞胀风险上升

（来源：华泰证券研究所）

北京时间5月8日（周四）凌晨，联储连续第三次将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.5%，联储强调不确定性以及滞胀风险上升，维持观望态度，不急于调整货币政策。决议声明中，联储维持对经济动能稳健的判断，但强调经济前景的不确定性进一步增加，且高失业率和高通胀的风险已经上升。本次会议并没有太多新增信息，市场整体波动不大。截至北京时间凌晨4：00，相较于会前，市场对2025年全年降息预期基本维持78bp；2年期与10年期美债收益率先跌后升，最终分别持平于3.78%、4.28%；美元指数持平于99.8；美股三大股指分别上涨0.1%-0.4%；黄金下跌0.4%至3382美元/盎司。

基本面方面，鲍威尔仍延续美国经济稳健（solid）的说法，劳工市场整体平衡，通胀冲击尚未到来，而当前长期通胀并未失锚。针对关税影响，鲍威尔表示关税对经济冲击的方向是确定的（通胀上升、增长放缓、失业率上升），但影响的幅度和冲击的时点有较大不确定性。增长方面，鲍威尔认为经济仍表现良好（doing fine），针对一季度GDP，鲍威尔提及该数据由于抢进口带来的噪音，难以通过其清晰解读经济本身状况，并认为该数字可能会上修。就业方面，鲍威尔认为当前劳工市场仍处于整体平衡（broadly in balance）的状态，与之前表述较为接近，并强调劳动参与率处于良好水平。通胀方面，目前关税对价格本身的冲击尚未到来（shock hasn’t hit yet），而目前更多是推升短期通胀预期，但长期通胀预期仍锚定在联储2%的目标左右。此外，鲍威尔认为关税对通胀的影响持续性取决于关税幅度、反映在价格中所需的时间以及长期通胀能否良好锚定。

利率指引方面，鲍威尔表示，不确定性比较高的时候，联储不急于降息，有条件等待形势明朗后再做决定。鲍威尔认为，虽然以消费者信心为代表的软数据正在走弱，但硬数据如消费者开支仍维持韧性，软硬数据的脱节是联储仍在观望的原因之一。此外，关税政策以及关税影响均存在高度不确定性，而当前经济仍然维持稳健，联储当前货币政策立场仅略微紧缩，联储有条件可以继续等待形势明朗后再做决定。最后，鲍威尔没有给出如何权衡失业率风险和通胀风险的明确回答。针对特朗普施压，鲍威尔表示其降息要求不会影响联储。

往前看，联储后续降息决策取决于关税谈判结果以及实际经济数据，特别是就业数据。虽然近期美国软数据（soft data）整体走弱，但硬数据（hard data）维持稳健，且关税政策以及失业率/通胀前景存在较大不确定性。5月会议显示联储维持此前的观望立场，不急于降息，计划等待形势明朗后再行动，且降息决策要取决于失业率和通胀之间的权衡。往前看，联储后续降息决策主要取决于hard data的走势，特别是就业数据。如果就业数据在6月会议前明显走弱，而4-5月通胀压力仍可控，那么联储仍有一定概率在6月降息，否则联储再次降息决策可能要推迟到7月或者以后。后续我们继续重点关注美国关税政策的变化以及包括就业数据在内的hard data以判断联储的降息决策。

风险提示：特朗普关税政策导致通胀上行超预期，金融市场动荡导致金融条件快速收紧。

附录：最近两场会议联储声明的对比

Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recentRecentindicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertaintyaboutaroundthe economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion.The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler, Alberto G. Musalem; and Jeffrey R. Schmid. Voting against this action was Christopher J, Waller. Neel Kashkari voted as an alternate member at this meeting,who supported no change for the federal funds target range but preferred to continue the current pace of decline in securities holdings.

文章来源

本文摘自2025年5月8日发布的《5月FOMC：联储继续观望，强调不确定性以及滞胀风险上升》

易峘 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100005 | SFC AMH263

胡李鹏 研究员 PHD SAC No. S0570525010001 | SFC BWA860

赵文瑄 联系人 SAC No. S0570124030017