“美国已沦为不可靠伙伴……”

“‘贸易战是好事且容易取胜’在普遍意义上显然是谬误……”

近日，《金融时报》发布了一篇题为“美国为何会在贸易战中输给中国（Why the US will lose against China）”的报道，对美国在贸易战中难以取胜的原因进行了分析。文章指出，特朗普对全球提出的所谓“对等关税”的“解放日”计划，堪称史上最离奇的贸易政策提案。

美国已沦为不可靠伙伴

在文章中，作者提到许多国家与中国的贸易体量已超越对美贸易。

尽管美国仍是许多国家更重要的出口市场，但中国同样是关键市场。更重要的是，中国作为关键进口商品供应源的地位无可替代——毕竟进口才是国际贸易的根本目的。

Many significant powers already do more of their trade with China than with the US: these include Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea. Yes, the US is a more important export market than China for many significant countries, partly because of the trade deficits Trump complains about. But China is also a significant market for many. Moreover, China is a source of essential imports, many of which cannot be easily replaced. Imports are, after all, the purpose of trade.

更重要的是，美国已沦为不可靠伙伴。

“交易至上”的美国，永远在寻求更优条件，任何理性国家都不会将未来押注于此。

贸易战对中方主要是需求冲击，而对美国则是供给冲击。重建需求远比重构供应链容易。

Above all, the US has become unreliable. A "transactional" US is one always seeking a better deal. No sane country should bet its future on such a partner. Moreover, for China, the trade war is mainly a demand shock, while for the US it is mainly a supply shock. It is easier to replace lost demand than missing supply.

图源：VCG

美国无法实现其预期

在作者看来，美国既无法实现其预期，也不可能取得贸易战的胜利。

文章梳理了特朗普治下的美国：试图将法治变成复仇的工具；瓦解政府机构；蔑视作为宪政根基的法律；攻击科学研究和美国顶尖大学的独立性；发动对可靠统计数据的战争；敌视移民（包括合法移民），尽管他们世代都是美国成功的基石；全盘否定医学与气候科学；背弃最基本的贸易经济学原理；公开蔑视美国亲手建立的全球秩序所依赖的联盟与合作机构体系……

The US will not get the deals it apparently seeks and the victory over China it hopes for. … Now, consider what is happening under the Trump regime: attempts to transform the rule of law into an instrument of vengeance; the dismantling of the US government; contempt for the laws that are the foundation of legitimate government; attacks on scientific research and the independence of the great US universities; wars on reliable statistics; hostility towards immigrants (and not just illegal ones), even though they have been the foundations of US success in every generation; an outright repudiation of medical science and climate science; an outright rejection of the most basic ideas in the economics of trade; and open contempt for the array of alliances and institutions of co-operation upon which the US-built global order rests…

作者直言，美国内部显然亟需改革。

但当前发生的不是改革，而是对美国国内外成功根基的破坏。这种损害难以逆转。人们不可能忘记是谁、是什么造成了这一切。

It is clear that much reform is needed within the US. Yet what is happening now is not reform, but the ruin of the foundations of US success, at home and abroad. It will be hard to reverse the damage. It will be impossible for people to forget who and what caused it.

作者称，一个试图以腐败的裙带资本主义取代法治与宪政的美国，注定无法超越中国；纯粹交易导向的美国，必将失去盟友真心支持。世界需要的是既能竞争又能合作的美国。可悲的是，当下的美国两者皆失。

A US that is trying to replace the rule of law and the constitution with corrupt crony capitalism will not outperform China. A purely transactional US will not receive the wholehearted support of its allies. The world needs a US that competes and co-operates with China. This US, alas, will fail to do either well.

编辑：李金昳

来源：金融时报

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