【解读】原新 | 应对人口老龄化战略：发展与分配是“双翼”（中英文）

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人口老龄化快速发展将成为未来中国新发展阶段的基本国情之一。推动经济可持续发展和保障财富公平分配，是应对老龄化战略的两大支柱，是从“未富先老”“未备先老”转变为“速老快富”“边老边备”的保证。最终目标是改善民众的生活水平，增强人们的获得感、幸福感和安全感。

本文作者系盘古智库学术委员、老龄社会30人论坛2020年度轮值主席、南开大学人口与发展研究所教授、南开大学老龄发展战略研究中心主任原新，文章中文版来源于“观中国”微信公众号，英文版来源于“中国日报网”。

人口老龄化快速演进是在全面建成小康社会的基础上，开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新发展阶段的基本国情。不断深化的老龄社会是未来经济社会发展的基础形态，是新发展阶段面临的新机遇和新挑战。

实现经济可持续发展、促进财富公平分配，是实施积极应对人口老龄化的国家战略的“双翼”。

经济发展是根本

从“未富先老”到“速老快富”

积极应对老龄社会的本质问题是经济可持续发展，不断做大“经济蛋糕”。坚持以新发展理念为统领，坚持发展是第一要务，努力实现更高质量、更高效益、更加公平、更可持续的发展，稳步增加应对老龄社会的财富储备，促进老龄社会从“未富先老”走向“速老快富”，夯实应对能力，是问题的核心。

“未富先老”是中国发展途中的必经阶段，人口老龄化进程也是经济社会动态发展的过程。2000年刚步入老龄化社会时，中国GDP刚刚突破1万亿美元，而人均GDP尚不足1000美元，处于刚刚解决温饱问题的中国特色社会主义建设起步阶段，经济发展水平处于低收入国家行列，是典型的“未富先老”社会形态。

改革开放以来，随着中国经济高速增长，国家的综合实力不断增强，人民生活水平不断提升。2010年中国GDP总量突破6万亿美元，跃居世界第二大经济体，人均GDP增加至4550美元，实现基本小康。2020年GDP总量超过15万亿美元，人均值达到1.1万美元，即将建成全面小康社会。2019年中国的人类发展指数增至0.758，成为全球人类发展指数进步最快的国家之一，初步跨入了“高人类发展水平”国家行列，经济和社会发展水平与发达国家的差距都在快速缩小，“速老快富”的步伐正在稳步前行。

人口老龄化进程与当前进一步深化改革开放和全面建设社会主义现代化国家新阶段相重叠。中国经济由改革开放头40年接近年均10%的高速增长，跨入6%-7%的中高速增长新常态，由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，经济动力转型、经济结构升级、经济质量提升、经济实力快速改善，社会形态正由“未富先老”转入“速老快富”。

展望未来，在全面建成小康社会的基础上，我们的战略目标是经过15年的努力，到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化，再经过15年的奋斗，在本世纪中叶建成社会主义现代化强国。这两个阶段既是中国特色社会主义现代化建设的战略机遇期，也是深度老龄社会向重度老龄社会迈进的转折期，同时还是人口老龄化程度“赶超”欧美等发达国家的特定历史时期，蕴含着重大机遇与挑战。

人口老龄化进程不可逆转，应对之路是单向的，只有依靠经济社会发展主动适应老龄化。资本、技术、劳动力以及效率改善是经济增长的动力源泉。工业化、信息化、城镇化以及“五个现代化”（工业现代化、农业现代化、国防现代化、科学技术现代化、推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化）建设的道路上，人口综合素质不断提升，人力资本积累愈发雄厚，经济社会资本日益厚实，技术创新日新月异，人工智能普遍应用，劳动密集型产业将逐步被资本和技术密集型产业替代，劳动力数量的减少对经济增长的负面冲击效应趋于淡化，人力资本开发利用将成为积极应对人口老龄化的有效途径之一。

公平分配是保障

从“未备先老”到“边老边备”

经济发展的目标就是改善民生。不断完善多层次养老保障制度，健全医疗保障制度，构建长期照护保险制度以及完备的社会福利和社会救助体系，推进老龄社会从“未备先老”走向“边老边备”，这是保证公平分配“经济蛋糕”和改善民生的基本制度安排。

20世纪五六十年代，中国逐步建立了与计划经济体制相匹配的、国家主导的劳动保险条例、职工养老保障制度、社会救助制度、农村五保制度、农村合作医疗等社会保障制度。伴随社会主义市场经济体制改革的步伐，20世纪90年代探索建立“统账结合”的现代社会保障体系，社保制度由单一向多元转型，为21世纪中国特色社会保障制度的建立奠定了基础，但仍然存在社保资金缴纳与管理尚不完善、地区差异大、覆盖范围有限、保障标准低等问题，不完善的社会保障制度与老年人日益增长的养老需求之间的矛盾凸显，尤其是农村老年人社会保障制度建设严重滞后。

保障和改善民生要抓住人民最关心、最直接、最现实的利益问题，既尽力而为，又量力而行，一件事情接着一件事情办，一年接着一年干。

2000年以来，随着经济社会的高速发展和人口快速老龄化，现代社会保障体系建设步伐不断加快，先后调整统账结合账户缴费比例，建立企业年金，完善农村社会养老保障制度，推动“新农合”建设，就业、教育、养老保险开启城乡一体化建设，不断改革城乡医疗保障制度，完善社会公共政策，改革住房制度，探索长期照护制度试点，加快老年服务体系和老年健康服务体系建设，推进医养结合，积极引导商业保险发展，逐步解决制度缺失、制度碎片化、覆盖率不足等重大问题，推动了社会保障制度由双轨制向单轨制、由城市保障为主向城乡一体化模式转变。

2019年，参加城镇职工基本养老保险人数为4.35亿，城乡居民基本养老保险人数达到5.33亿，基本医疗保险人数13.54亿，社会保障体系基本实现了全覆盖，人民健康和医疗卫生水平大幅提高，应对老龄社会的社会保障制度准备愈发充分，正在从“未备先老”走向“边老边备”。

在积极应对人口老龄化的战役中，做大“经济蛋糕”是基础，公平分配“经济蛋糕”是手段，保障群众生活改善是目标，不断满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要，不断促进社会公平正义，增强人们获得感、幸福感和安全感。

-English Version-

Dealing with aging society

Government needs to lead economic and social development to ensure fair distribution of the dividends to the elderly

China has made great achievements in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. At the same time, a significant demographic change is taking place－its population is rapidly aging. The aging trend presents opportunities as well as challenges. The fundamental approach to deal with the aging population is a sustainable economy. China is entering a new stage of high-quality development that must be sustainable and efficient, so that it can steadily increase its wealth reserves to tackle the problems brought by its aging society.

China faces the problem of an aging population before it has become a developed country. Population aging is a natural result of economic and social progress. When its society began aging in 2000, China's GDP exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, but its per capita GDP was less than $1,000.People had overcome basic living problems, but China was still a low-income country.

Reform and opening-up over the past 40 years have enabled the country's rapid economic growth and enhanced its comprehensive strength, as well as improvement of people's livelihood. In 2010, China's GDP exceeded $6 trillion, making it the second-largest economy in the world, and its per capita GDP increased to $4,550.Another decade has passed, and its annual GDP has reached over 100 trillion yuan ($14 trillion), with the per capita GDP surpassing $10,000. In addition, the country's human development index increased to 0.758 in 2019, and the strong human development performance put the country in the high human development category. It means that the gap in economic and social development between China and developed countries has narrowed. Nonetheless it has not yet caught up with them, while the rate at which the population is aging is accelerating.

The aging population runs parallel with deepening reform and opening-up and building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. China has lowered its economic growth rate target to around 6 percent from the previous average growth of 10 percent, emphasizing high-quality development rather than rapid growth. Looking ahead, China will basically achieve modernization by 2035 and will develop into a great modern socialist country by the middle of the 21st century. The two stages represent a social transition from an advanced aging stage to a severe level. The degree of China's aging will surpass that of developed countries such as the United States and those in Europe.

Population aging is an irreversible trend. Making economic and social development to adapt to the change is the solution to this challenge, which calls for improved engines of economic growth in terms of capital, technology, labor and efficiency. As the government works on industrialization, informationization and urbanization, significant changes have taken place, including improved workforce quality, enhanced human resources, increased economic and social capital, advanced technology and the application of artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, the negative impact of the shrinking supply of labor on economic growth has been reduced as labor-intensive industries are gradually replaced by capital and technology-intensive industries. The development and utilization of human capital can therefore help society face the aging population.

Economic development is a critical approach to improving people's livelihoods. It is necessary to build a multi-tier pension system, improve the medical security system and implement long-term care insurance, and develop other social welfare and assistance systems. These are basic approaches to ensure fair distribution of the dividends of economic development and raise people's standard of living.

Along with market-oriented economic reform, the social security system undertook significant changes in the 1990s, combining social pooling and personal accounts, and laid a foundation for the construction of a social security system with Chinese characteristics. However, problems such as imperfect payout and poor management of social security funds, regional policy differences, limited coverage and low standards have resulted in the system's inability to meet the demands of senior citizens to live happily in their old age, especially those in rural areas.

Since 2000, the authorities have adjusted the proportions of the social pool and personal accounts, established enterprise annuities, and improved the social endowment system in rural areas according to economic and social progress and the increasingly rapid aging of the population. Reforms of the urban and rural medical security system, public policies and the housing system have also become priorities. They are also exploring ways to improve the long-term care system and promote the integration of medical and nursing services. Commercial insurance provides another option for people, shrinking the gap between urban and rural residents.

In 2019, the number of participants in the basic pension scheme for enterprise employees, pension system and medical insurance respectively reached 435 million, 533 million and 1.35 billion. That means the social security system covers almost the entire Chinese population, and people's health is ensured with improved medical care, which is essential preparation to cope with the aging society.

The essence of dealing with the issues of aging is economic development and making a bigger economic cake, and dealing with the problem of the elderly is the development of people's livelihood and the distribution of the economic cake. So, responding to the aging issue, economic development serves as the basis and equitable distribution ensures a sense of fulfillment, happiness and security that are founded on social equity and justice.■

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责任编辑：刘菁波