沃什首秀笔记：男人他就得帅

信息量较大，文字表达较为麻烦，今晚直播讲吧。基

声明风格大变样：

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

联邦公开市场委员会以12票赞成、0票反对的投票结果批准发布以下声明：

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

为支持美联储的双重使命，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%不变。委员会重申了保持银行体系充裕准备金的政策。

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

尽管中东冲突在一定程度上带来了居高不下的不确定性，但经济活动仍在以稳健的步伐扩张。生产率增长和资本投资表现强劲。就业增长与劳动力增长保持同步，失业率几乎没有变化。

Inflaion remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

相较于委员会2%的长期目标，通胀率依然偏高，这在一定程度上反映了供应冲击对包括能源在内的特定行业价格上涨的推动作用。委员会将实现物价稳定。

评：声明格式和内容顺序大变样，政策决定前置，利率不变，重申保持充裕准备金以打消市场对激进推进缩表的疑虑，此后则是对经济、就业和通胀的现实描述。个人认为不宜与旧版的声明再进行对比解读。

请注意，声明内容格式的改变在当次FOMC会议投票通过即可，但点阵图和经济预测的格式变化则有前置的行政流程要走。

SEP与点阵图（格式未变）

评：半数委员指引年内可能加息，通胀预测相比3月大幅上调。点阵图中仅有18个点，而FOMC一共19位成员（7位理事和12位地方联储主席），沃什可能拒绝给出自身的经济预测和利率预测点。

（牛逼的是本人的Gemini预测到了这一点）

发布会细节

开场陈述

Good day. It's an honor, a true honor, to take up this duty at a time of such consequence. I've been especially heartened by the warm welcome of old friends and new colleagues both. And I've listened closely to my fellow FOMC members—heard a lot of new ideas, new thinking, and genuine interest in moving the Fed forward.

大家下午好。在如此重要的历史关头履任此职，我深感荣幸，这是真正的荣幸。老朋友和新同事们的热烈欢迎让我倍受鼓舞。我也仔细倾听了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）同事们的意见，听到了许多新想法、新思维，以及推动美联储向前发展的真诚愿望。

This week's FOMC meeting exemplified the very best of the Fed's traditions—rigorous debate, open-mindedness, commitment to mission, responsibility, and accountability for performance.

本周的 FOMC 会议展现了美联储最优秀的传统——严谨的辩论、开放的心态、对使命的恪守、责任感以及对绩效的问责。

In this business, they all add up to one thing—getting monetary policy right, or as near to it as we can do. That is our North Star. My colleagues and I are here to serve our legislative remit, which you've heard us say before—price stability and maximum employment. And these objectives guided our business in the meeting just concluded.

在我们的工作中，所有这一切最终都归结为一件事——确保货币政策的正确性，或者尽可能做到尽善尽美。这就是我们的北极星。我和我的同事们旨在履行国会赋予我们的法定职责，也就是你们之前听我们说过的——物价稳定和充分就业。这些目标指导了我们在刚刚结束的会议上的所有工作。

As you saw a few moments ago, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the Fed funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75%, in support of the Fed's dual mandate. The committee also reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes in part to the conflict in the Middle East.

正如你们刚才所看到的，为了支持美联储的双重使命，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在 3.5% 至 3.75% 不变。委员会还重申了维持银行体系充足准备金的政策。尽管存在高企的不确定性（部分归因于中东冲突），但经济活动仍在以稳健的步伐扩张。

Productivity growth and capital investment, both strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. We recognize that inflation has been running well ahead of the Fed's long-stated inflation goal of 2%. That's been going on for more than five years.

生产率增长和资本投资均表现强劲。就业增长与劳动力人口增长保持同步，失业率几无变化。我们认识到，通胀率一直远高于美联储长期以来设定的 2% 的通胀目标。这种情况已经持续了五年多。

Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people. But the recent past need not be prologue. I am pleased to report that members of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability.

持久的高物价是美国人民的沉重负担。但过去发生的事情并不必然预示着未来。我很高兴地报告，FOMC 的成员们态度明确且一致：本委员会必将实现物价稳定。

At any institution, a change in leadership is a natural and timely opportunity to reaffirm its mission, review current practices, and consider whether they meet our objectives. We will be working in close collaboration to ask what changes might improve the conduct of monetary policy.

对于任何机构而言，领导层的更迭都是一个自然且及时的契机，可以借此重申使命、审视现有惯例，并思考它们是否符合我们的目标。我们将紧密合作，共同探讨哪些变革能够改善货币政策的执行。

On that score, you might have already noticed something—a difference in today's policy statement. It's a bit shorter, a bit simpler, and it dispenses with some older language. That statement just gives you the facts as best we can judge it. Absent also is so-called forward guidance, which we agreed was not well-suited to the current policy conjuncture.

在这方面，你们可能已经注意到了一些变化——今天政策声明中的不同之处。它更短、更精简，并放弃了一些旧措辞。这份声明只是尽我们所能客观地向大家陈述事实。同时，声明中也取消了所谓的"前瞻性指引"，我们一致认为，前瞻性指引并不适合当前的政策局面。

This afternoon, you also received the usual summary of economic projections. It's been the practice of this committee for participants to submit these. I have encouraged my colleagues to do so. I, however, refrained from offering any projections of my own, consistent with my long-held views on the SEP, at least as currently structured.

今天下午，你们还收到了常规的经济预测摘要（SEP）。与会者提交这些预测是本委员会的惯例。我鼓励我的同事们这样做。然而，我本人没有提供任何自己的预测，这与我对 SEP（至少是目前结构下的 SEP）长期以来的看法是一致的。

In the medium projections, real GDP rises at 2.2% this year, 2.3% next year. And total PCE inflation runs at 3.6% this year, 2.3% next year. The unemployment rate stands at about 4.3%. The median participant judges that the appropriate federal funds rate is 3.8% at the end of this year, and 3.6 at the end of next.

在预测中位数中，今年实际 GDP 增长 2.2%，明年增长 2.3%。今年 PCE 整体通胀率为 3.6%，明年为 2.3%。失业率维持在 4.3% 左右。预测中位数显示，与会者认为今年年底的合适联邦基金利率为 3.8%，明年年底为 3.6%。

Let me turn now to a few words on a key initiative that we're announcing today. I'm appointing a task force in each of five areas that are central to the broad conduct of monetary policy—first, Fed communications. Second, the Fed's balance sheet. Third, our use and reliance on existing data sources. Fourth, productivity and jobs in an era of transformation. And last, the Fed's inflation frameworks.

现在，我想简单谈谈我们今天宣布的一项关键举措。我将在对货币政策广泛执行至关重要的五个核心领域各成立一个工作组：第一，美联储的沟通机制；第二，美联储的资产负债表；第三，我们对现有数据源的使用和依赖；第四，转型时代的生产率与就业；最后，美联储的通胀框架。

These subjects are timely, consequential, and worthy of a fresh look. My colleagues and I discussed them with energy and purpose over the last couple of days. For each of these independent task forces I'm enlisting some of the very best minds, both inside and outside the economics profession. They will be supported by subject-matter specialists from our superb Fed staff.

这些课题恰逢其时、影响深远，值得重新审视。在过去的两天里，我和我的同事们充满活力且目标明确地对这些问题进行了讨论。对于这些独立的工作组，我正在招募经济学界内外最杰出的一些人才。美联储优秀的专业员工也将为他们提供各学科的专业支持。

And they'll have a straightforward charge—start with first principles, ask hard questions, examine current practice, consider alternatives, and ultimately propose next steps for policy-maker consideration.

他们的任务非常直接——从第一性原理出发，提出尖锐的问题，审视现有的惯例，寻找替代方案，并最终提出下一步举措供政策制定者参考。

Since last summer, my colleagues discussed possible improvements in the form and function of Fed communications. This new task force will build on that effort. And I expect, propose well-considered changes, including to the SEP. The second task force, the one on balance sheet policy, will review the benefits and risks of the current ample reserves regime and the composition of the balance sheet.

自去年夏天以来，我的同事们就讨论了美联储沟通形式和功能的潜在改进。这个新的工作组将在此基础上继续努力。我期待他们提出深思熟虑的变革方案，包括对 SEP 的修改。第二个关于资产负债表政策的工作组，将评估当前充足准备金框架的利弊与风险，以及资产负债表的结构。

They will assess alternative frameworks for the conduct and operation of monetary policy. The third task force, the one on data, will evaluate new information sources and consider methodological changes to improve data-gathering, with the aim of giving policy-makers more accurate, relevant, contemporaneous, and perhaps most important, actionable information on the state of our economy.

他们将评估货币政策传导和操作的替代框架。第三个关于数据的工作组将评估新的信息源，并考虑改进数据收集的方法论，旨在为政策制定者提供关于我们经济状况的更准确、更相关、更具实时性、以及货币最重要的——更具可操作性的信息。

Fourth, the task force on productivity and jobs—it'll survey the pace, the reach, the economic impact of new general purpose technologies, including AI, and explore the implications for the Fed in pursuit of our employment and inflation mandates.

第四个关于生产率和就业的工作组——它将调研包括人工智能（AI）在内的通用目的技术的发展速度、普及范围及经济影响，并探讨这些技术对美联储履行就业和通胀使命的深远影响。

The last task force, the one on inflation frameworks—that'll examine the drivers of inflation, first principles, and weigh the full range of ideas for delivering price stability in a changing economy. You'll hear quite a bit more about these task forces and this initiative in the coming weeks. Enough for now to make a simple statement.

最后一个关于通胀框架的工作组——它将深入研究通胀的驱动因素、基本原理，并权衡在不断变化的经济中实现物价稳定的全方位设想。在接下来的几周里，你们会听到更多关于这些工作组和这项举措的信息。现在点到为止，先做这样一个简单的声明。

Each task force will serve an objective shared by everyone around that table that I sat with over the last couple of days—a Federal Reserve that is clear-eyed about its mission, fit for purpose, and focused on the future. And with that, I appreciate your attention. I'm happy to take your questions.

每个工作组都将服务于过去几天里围坐在会议桌前的每一位成员的共同目标：打造一个对自身使命保持清醒认识、能胜任其职责并着眼于未来的美联储。谢谢大家的聆听。现在我很高兴回答各位的提问。

问答环节

提问 1

Schneider: Hi, Chair. Good to see you again. And welcome back. This is a lot to be putting in motion so fast. What is the timeline you have in mind for each of these?

施耐德（记者）： 你好，主席。很高兴再次见到你，欢迎回来。这么多举措这么快就同时启动了。你对每个工作组设定的时间表是怎样的？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, I think it'll depend on the task force. It also depends on the urgency in which we need clear answers. My expectation—I'm still in the business of recruiting and finalizing them. My expectation is the task forces will begin work in the next couple of weeks. And we'll start to get some more information from them, some more framing of how they see things starting in the fall, hopefully most if not all concluding by year-end.

沃什主席： 我认为这取决于具体的工作组。这也取决于我们迫切需要明确答案的紧急程度。我的预期是——目前我仍处于招募和敲定人员的阶段。我预计这些工作组将在未来两周内开始工作。我们将从秋季开始陆续从他们那里获得更多信息，以及他们对问题的思考框架，并希望大多数（如果不是全部的话）工作组能在年底前结束工作。

提问 2

Schneider: On the inflation framework, you talk about first principles. Does this include a review of the 2% target itself? You mentioned that things to the right of the decimal point don't matter. Should this be starting from a premise that 2% as a point estimate is too strict?

施耐德（记者）： 关于通胀框架，你谈到了第一性原理。这是否包括对 2% 目标本身的重新审视？你曾提到小数点右边的数字并不重要。这是否应该从"2% 作为单一的点估计值过于严格"这一前提开始？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: Let me break that into two pieces. On the inflation framework review, their remit is—what are the drivers of inflation. What's the Fed's responsibility for inflation. How do we measure inflation. But that'll overlap with my data group.

沃什主席：让我把这个问题拆成两部分来回答。关于通胀框架的审查，他们的职责是研究：什么是通胀的驱动因素；美联储对通胀负有什么责任；以及我们如何衡量通胀。不过这部分会与我的数据小组有所重叠。

On the 2% inflation objective, that is the Federal Reserve's long-held objective of 2%. You've heard me say before I tend to focus on the left of the decimal point. The 2 is the left of the decimal point. 0 is to the right. I see no reason, until we have reestablished our commitment and ability to deliver on the 2% inflation objective, to revisit that. So that'll be outside the scope of what we're taking on.

至于 2% 的通胀目标，这是美联储长期坚持的目标。你们以前听我说过，我往往倾向于关注小数点左边的数字。"2"是小数点左边的数字，"0"在右边。我认为，在我们重新确立对实现 2% 通胀目标的承诺和能力之前，没有任何理由去重新审视它。因此，这不在我们此次开展的工作范围之内。

提问 3

PRESS: Thank you so much. You've said inflation is a choice. In the policy statement, it includes this pledge to deliver price stability. But looking at the SEP, the bulk of your colleagues expect 3.3% for year end, and for the 2% inflation target not to be reached until 2028. So I'm curious how patient you think the Fed can afford to be at this juncture in terms of waiting for one-time inflation waves to wash through. And for inflation to step down after so many years of inflation running above target. And under what circumstances you would support the Fed taking some action and raising rates.

媒体记者： 非常感谢。你曾说过通胀是一种选择。在政策声明中，包含了实现物价稳定的承诺。但是看看经济预测摘要（SEP），你的大多数同事预计年底通胀率为 3.3%，并且直到 2028 年才能达到 2% 的通胀目标。因此我很想知道，在通胀连续多年高于目标之后，你认为美联储在等待一次性通胀浪潮平息、等待通胀回落这件事上，目前还能保持多大的耐心？在什么情况下你会支持美联储采取行动并加息？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: Sure. So, quite a bit there. Let me try to break that into pieces. First, we have the capability and commitment to deliver on our price stability objective of 2%. That's what we're going to do.

沃什主席： 好的。这里面的信息量很大。让我试着拆开来回答。首先，我们有能力也有决心实现 2% 的物价稳定目标。这就是我们要做的。

In the Fed's review of its strategy over the last any number of years, in January, the Fed, including the strategy that we're still bound by, the Fed statement says that inflation is primarily determined by monetary policy. You bet it is. I've said for years inflation is a choice. You bet it is.

在美联储过去多年对自身战略的审查中（包括我们目前仍受其约束的 1 月份的战略），美联储的声明指出，通胀主要由货币政策决定。确实如此。我多年来也一直在说，通胀是一种选择。确实如此。

And today I'm announcing that this committee unambiguously and unanimously have decided we are going to deliver on that. Rest of your question sounded like an encouragement for me to give forward guidance. We've dropped forward guidance. Some along the committee dropped it, I suspect, from our discussion the last couple of days because they said at this moment in time, it doesn't feel as though providing forward guidance is right.

今天我在此宣布，本委员会已经明确且一致地决定，我们将实现这一目标。你问题的其余部分听起来像是想促使我给出前瞻性指引。但我们已经取消了前瞻性指引。我根据过去几天的讨论推测，委员会中的一些人之所以放弃它，是因为他们认为在当前这个时间节点，提供前瞻性指引似乎并不合适。

Others have, I'd say, different views and think as a general proposition, forward guidance isn't the business we should be in. But that will be taken up by the task force on communications. And my policy maker colleagues, we're going to listen hard to what the experts say and make our own decision. But I can't give you any forward guidance about what we're going to do next. The good news, we'll meet in six weeks.

而另一些人则持不同看法，他们认为从根本上讲，前瞻性指引本就不是我们该做的业务。但这将由沟通工作组来处理。我和我的政策制定者同事们将会认真倾听专家的意见，并做出我们自己的决定。但我现在无法向你们透露任何关于我们下一步行动的前瞻性指引。好消息是，我们六周后还会再开会。

提问 4

PRESS: Following up, I am curious how restrictive you think things are at the current moment, given the flow of data that we've seen, and forecasts that are coming down the pipeline.

媒体记者： 紧接着上一个问题，鉴于我们目前看到的数据流以及即将发布的预测，我想知道你认为目前的政策限制性达到了什么程度？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: I've heard characterizations both inside the Fed about that. I'll give you my own. It's uneven. If I look at the housing markets as one example, Fed policy isn't the single determinant of the state of the housing market. But broadly, I would say there, Fed policy appears to be somewhat restrictive.

沃什主席： 关于这一点，我在美联储内部听到了不同的定性。我向你谈谈我个人的看法：目前的情况是"不均衡"的。如果以房地产市场为例，美联储的政策并不是房地产市场状况的唯一决定因素。但总的来说，我认为在那个领域，美联储的政策似乎具有一定的限制性。

I would have a hard time managing to say those words if I were to see what's happening in financial markets. I'd say it's uneven. That's perhaps a function of different transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, whether monetary policy is coming from our interest rate tool or our balance sheet tool. But the good news is we have a task force on that, the balance sheet task force will look more at that subject.

但如果看到金融市场发生的情况，我很难说出"具有限制性"这样的话。所以我说它是不均衡的。这可能是货币政策不同传导机制作用的结果，取决于货币政策是来自我们的利率工具还是资产负债表工具。但好消息是，我们对此有一个专门的工作组，资产负债表工作组将进一步研究这一课题。

提问 5

PRESS: You have said you don't like forward guidance. You dropped it from the statement. But with the dot plot, nine members suggested that they want a rate increase by the end of the year. And the markets have taken that as forward guidance. What does this mean in terms of how you guide the markets, and in terms of what the dot plot's future is?

媒体记者： 你曾说过你不喜欢前瞻性指引。你也把它从声明中删除了。但在点阵图中，有 9 名成员暗示他们希望在年底前加息。市场已经将此视为一种前瞻性指引。这对于你如何引导市场，以及点阵图未来的命运意味着什么？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: I'm going to have to give you the same answer I gave to Ms. Smith. We've got a task force for that. I'll give you a little bit more. I reviewed the dot plots. And when I saw the submissions, I noted that all the submissions were coming in with pencils—those kind with the big erasers.

沃什主席： 我不得不给你和给史密斯女士一样的回答：我们有一个专门的工作组来负责这个。不过我可以多说一点。我审查了点阵图。当我看到大家提交的预测时，我注意到所有的预测都是用铅笔写的——就是那种带大橡皮擦的铅笔。

That'll say that I think my colleagues around the table when they submitted their dots understand the world is changing quite quickly. And they didn't feel bound by them six weeks from now or six days from now. And in any event the circumstances change. I'll note a couple other things.

也就是说，我认为围坐在桌前的同事们在提交他们的"点"时，心里很清楚世界变化得非常快。他们并不会觉得自己会被这些"点"绑死，无论是在六周后还是六天后。一旦情况发生变化，他们就会进行调整。我还注意到了另外几件事。

What I heard around the table was—as they submitted their forecasts—to be clear, they weren't saying this was more likely than not. This was more likely than their other scenarios. So I didn't hear tons of conviction. What I heard was the kind of humility that I think we should have. I did not submit a dot.

在会议桌上我听到的是——当他们提交预测时，需要明确的是，他们并不是认为这种情况绝对会发生。他们只是认为这比他们的其他假设场景更有可能发生。所以我并没有听到多么坚不可摧的绝对信念。我听到的是一种谦逊，我认为这是我们应该具备的态度。我本人没有提交点阵图。

For me, it's not helpful in the conduct of policy. I suspect by year-end, as I mentioned in my opening statements, there'll be a review about communications broadly—press conferences, dots, meetings and the like, transcripts, minutes. This will be part of that. I don't want to prejudge the outcomes but I'm open-minded about what they could be.

对我而言，它对政策的传导没有帮助。正如我在开场白中所说，我怀疑到今年年底，我们将对整个沟通机制进行全面审查——包括新闻发布会、点阵图、会议及类似形式、速记文本、会议纪要等。这将是审查的一部分。我不想预判结果，但我对可能出现的结果持开放态度。

I was incredibly impressed over the last couple of days. My colleagues over the last two days, frankly, the first three weeks I've been here, have been very open about changes. Change isn't easy. Change is filled with risk. But our number one goal is to get monetary policy right. The way to get monetary policy right is to deliver on the remit that Congress gave us to deliver on price stability. And there was no disagreement on any of those points.

过去几天给我留下了极其深刻的印象。坦率地说，在过去的这两天里，也就是我来到这里的头三周里，我的同事们对变革态度非常开放。变革并非易事，变革充满了风险。但我们的第一目标是确保货币政策的正确。而确保货币政策正确的方法，就是履行国会赋予我们的物价稳定职责。在这些关键点上，大家没有任何分歧。

提问 6

PRESS: At the risk of possibly getting the same answer about task forces, communications. What is your feeling about these news conferences? Are you going to continue one after every meeting? Do you find them useful? What is the future for the way Kevin Warsh will communicate?

媒体记者： 冒着再次听到关于"工作组"或"沟通机制"相同回答的风险，我想问：你对这些新闻发布会感觉如何？你打算在每次会议后都继续举办吗？你认为——或者觉得它们有用吗？凯文·沃什未来的沟通方式会是怎样的？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: This one probably has another 15 or 20 minutes. I don't want to prejudge the outcome. (Laughter)

沃什主席：这一场新闻发布会可能还要持续 15 到 20 分钟。我不想预判之后的结果。（笑声）

Press conferences can be a very useful way to communicate with households, businesses, and more broadly, through using the likes of you. My mentor's mantra was press conferences are useful, but when you have one, you want to make sure you have something important to say. We have something important to say about our commitment to deliver on price stability, commitment to rethink practices with an eye of moving the Fed forward, and to give you and the American people a sense that these aren't idle thoughts.

新闻发布会可以是一种与家庭、企业进行沟通的非常有效的手段，并且可以借助你们各位将信息更广泛地传播出去。我导师的格言是：新闻发布会很有用，但当你召开时，你要确保你确实有重要的事情要说。我们今天确实有重要的事情要说，那就是我们实现物价稳定的承诺、为了美联储的长远发展而重新审视现有惯例的承诺，并让你们和美国人民感觉到这些绝非空话。

These are concrete thoughts that we are going to seek out the best minds, both the best thinking inside of the Federal Reserve, and the best people I know in business and economics, and the academy, and technology, and the rest, to share their views. That's what we're going to be doing in the pursuit of truth. I think we're going to come up with new and interesting things. We made some changes today. I expect more changes to come. And some of those might well be worthy of a press conference.

这些都是具体的设想，我们将集思广益，向美联储内部最优秀的智囊，以及我在商界、经济学界、学术界、科技界等领域所认识的最优秀的人才征求意见，听取他们的看法。这就是我们在探寻真理的过程中将要做的事情。我认为我们将提出一些崭新且有趣的观点。我们今天做出了一些改变。我预计未来还会有更多的改变。其中一些改变很可能值得再专门开一次新闻发布会。

提问 7

Press (Chris, Associated Press): Thanks for taking our questions. Could you give us a sense of how you see inflation more in the long term? I know you may not want to comment on the ups and downs. Is this mainly driven by energy prices and the Iran war, or do you have any concerns about underlying inflation pressures in the economy? Thank you.

美联社记者（克里斯）： 你好。谢谢你回答我们的提问。你能告诉我们你如何看待更长期的通胀吗？我知道你可能不想评论短期的起起伏伏。这主要是由能源价格和伊朗战争引发的，还是你对经济中潜在的通胀压力有所担忧？谢谢。

CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, I can't do much better than the committee just did. So let me restate it. Inflation remains elevated relative to the committee's 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. That paragraph goes on to say, to be clear, the Fed will deliver price stability.

沃什主席： 这个问题，我无法比委员会刚才发表的表述说得更好了。所以让我重申一下：相对于委员会 2% 的目标，通胀率仍然高企。这在一定程度上反映了供应链冲击，这些冲击推高了包括能源在内的某些行业的物价。该段落接着写道，需要明确的是，美联储必将实现物价稳定。

My own judgment is the committee spent quite a bit of time not just in two days, but over iterations of a couple weeks. That's what we're prepared to say about inflation. But the commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous, and unambiguous. And that's an important message we've missed for five years. And we're going to fix that.

我个人的判断是，委员会不仅在这两天里，而且在过去几周的反复讨论中，都花了不少时间在这个问题上。这就是我们准备对通胀发表的看法。但我们实现目标的承诺是坚定的、一致的、明确的。这是我们过去五年来一直忽略的一个重要信息。而我们现在要纠正这一点。

提问 8

PRESS: Great. On the data task force and everything else, generally speaking, I think people feel the Fed looks at everything already. Certainly that was the sense from before. Is there data that you feel is not given enough weight? You mentioned the trend mean in the past, but that's well known to most Fed members. What is that task force looking at and what might be—I know you don't want to prejudge the outcome, but are there examples of data that you expect might be given more weight? Thank you.

媒体记者： 很好。关于数据工作组和其他方面，总的来说，我认为人们觉得美联储实际上已经在关注所有指标了。以前大家确实是这种感觉。有没有哪些数据是你觉得没有被赋予足够权重的？你过去提到过趋势均值，但大多数美联储成员对此都非常了解。该工作组正在研究什么？我知道你不想预判结果，但是有没有一些例子，是那些你预计可能会被给予更多权重的数据？谢谢。

CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, you're answering my question. So I don't want to prejudge the outcome. I don't want to say too much about what they're going to do because I have a phone call or two to make before I've nailed down the people that are doing that. I'm interested in what the outside experts' view is on the subject.

沃什主席： 你这其实是在替我回答问题了（笑）。所以我不想预判结果。我不想对他们将要做的事情说得太多，因为在最终敲定负责这些工作的人选之前，我还得打一两个电话。我很想知道外部专家对这个课题有什么看法。

I'll say this generally. Most of the data that central bankers and other government officials in the United States consume come with old-fashioned survey methods. A national account of what the U.S. economy looks like that looks very little like the U.S. economy in 2026.

我想从宏观上谈谈。美国央行行长和其他政府官员所使用的大多数数据，都是通过陈旧的抽样调查方法获得的。用这种国民账户系统描绘出的美国经济图景，与 2026 年当下的美国经济现状相去甚远。

Survey methods that don't have the response rates that we need, asking questions that might have been quite applicable a generation ago that are less applicable now. So, even inside of official statistics, I would be open-minded if the task force and our own best thinking had recommendations how those official statistics can be brought up to a standard of our time, using new analytic methods.

这些调查方法的回复率达不到我们的要求，而且提出的问题可能在一代人以前很适用，但现在已经不那么适用了。因此，即使在官方统计数据内部，如果工作组和我们自己最优秀的智囊能够提出建议，利用新的分析方法将这些官方统计数据提高到符合我们时代标准的水平，我也将持非常开放的态度。

And also say this. Almost every private company CEO that's running his or her business are doing so with real-time information. That isn't subject to much revision. That is telling them what just happened at that very moment. As you know, there are normal long and variable lags in the conduct of monetary policy.

我还想说明这一点：几乎所有管理企业的私营公司 CEO 都是根据实时信息在运作。这些信息不会面临太大的数据修正，它们直接反映了那个时间节点刚刚发生了什么。如你所知，货币政策的传导通常存在漫长且多变的滞后性。

What we're interested in is what's happening right now. What we're less interested in is echoes of history. You're hearing from my answer that some of the data that we receive, that we're waiting on, the first Friday after the month of payroll index or something else, that might be an echo of history that's quite useful on its third revision.

我们感兴趣的是当下正在发生的事情。我们不太感兴趣的是历史的回音。从我的回答中你可以听出，我们收到并等待着的某些数据（比如月末过后的第一个星期五公布的非农就业指数等），在经历第三次数据修正后可能非常有用，但它可能只是历史的回音。

We need to take those error bounds down because we have to make hard decisions in real time. I'm really open-minded that there is a lot of new data sources that we can learn from the private sector, from reforms in the official sector, and new analytic techniques that are far more refined than asking a simple question about whether something was core or non-core.

我们需要缩小这些误差范围，因为我们必须实时做出艰难的决策。我确实持非常开放的态度，我们有很多可以向私营部门借鉴的新数据源、源自官方部门改革的新渠道，以及全新的分析技术，这些技术要比仅仅简单询问某项指标是"核心"还是"非核心"要精细得多。

提问 9

PRESS (Fox Business): Thanks. Welcome, Mr. Chairman. If you don't give a lot of ongoing forward guidance—markets have more volatility, and shouldn't Americans have more access to what you're thinking going forward?

福克斯商业频道记者： 谢谢。欢迎你，主席先生。如果你不提供大量持续的前瞻性指引——市场波动性就会增加，难道美国人民不应该有更多渠道来了解你对未来的想法吗？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: I think financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data. I think the financial markets work less efficiently when they ask a question, how will the Federal Reserve react to that incoming information.

沃什主席： 我认为金融市场在对新进数据做出反应时表现最好。而当金融市场去纠结"美联储将对这些新信息做出何种反应"这个问题时，市场的运转效率反而会降低。

The more that markets are paying attention to what's happening in the real economy, deciding what's good data and what's less good data, the more financial markets can price what they believe is the most likely and what are the tail risks.

市场越是关注实体经济中发生的事情，去辨别哪些是好数据、哪些是次要数据，金融市场就越能对他们认为最可能发生的情况以及尾部风险进行准确的定价。

Financial market prices are probably the most important source of information to guide central bankers. But when all the financial markets are doing is reflecting back what we've said, we're taking the most important source of information and we're being blind to it.

金融市场的价格可能是引导央行行长决策的最重要的信息来源。但如果金融市场所做的全部事情只是反射我们说的话，我们就是把最重要的信息源给屏蔽了，变成了瞎子。

I'd like us to create a system where those blinders come off, where markets are following data that they efficiently think is reliable and they'll be watching data, we'll be watching data. They'll come with better information through market prices to us. We can make more informed decisions. Ultimately, the goal I set at the outset, deliver on the price stability objective that Congress told us to do, and that we've got to get in the business of doing.

我希望我们能建立一个系统，把这些眼罩摘掉，让市场去跟踪他们认为可靠的数据，他们在观察数据，我们也在观察数据。他们将通过市场价格把更好的信息传递给我们。我们就能做出更明智的决定。归根结底，就是我一开始设定的目标：履行国会吩咐我们去做的物价稳定职责，而我们必须真正投入到这项工作中去。

提问 10

PRESS: This was your first meeting. The board members seem fairly hawkish when you listen—in general, to what they're saying. Was there any discussion of a rate cut going forward today?

媒体记者： 这是你主持的第一次会议。总的来说，听听美联储官员们的言论，他们似乎相当鹰派。今天有没有讨论过未来降息的可能性？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: There was one proposal on the table. There was no discussion of any other proposals. The discussion on that proposal I would say was quite limited. The group was unanimous and unambiguous on it.

沃什主席： 摆在桌面上的提案只有一个。没有对任何其他提案进行讨论。我想说，对那项提案的讨论也相当有限。整个团队对此意见一致，态度明确。

It has been the practice of this central bank and others to have a range of alternatives. Today we had one. I thought it furthered discussion, deepened it, and made it clear what we needed to do and how we needed to deliver. I wouldn't prejudge what happens in the future. There was only one big subject for us. We took it on. We had a good family fight on it for a couple of days. And we ended up in a better place.

过去本国央行和其他央行的惯例是提供一系列替代方案。而今天我们只有一个。我认为这推动了讨论的深入，并让我们明确了需要做什么以及如何实现。我不会预判未来会发生什么。对我们来说，当时只有一个大议题。我们承担了下来，内部激烈争论了两天，最终达成了一个更好的结果。

提问 11

PRESS (Financial Times): You know, coming to this blind, reading this nice, short statement that we've all appreciated in the room, one might wonder why you didn't raise rates today considering what you're saying here about the risks to U.S. inflation and your mandate. I guess, why not and what would you need to see in order to get to that place? And secondly, on your task forces, are there any best practices of other central banks that you'd consider looking at? Thank you.

金融时报记者： 坦率地说，读到这份我们在座所有人都很赞赏的、精简优美的声明，有人可能会感到疑惑：考虑到你在这里提到的美国通胀风险和你们的使命，为什么你们今天没有加息？我想问，为什么不加？以及你需要看到什么才会走到加息那一步？其次，关于你的工作组，是否有其他央行的最佳实践是你会考虑借鉴的？谢谢。

CHAIRMAN WARSH: I'm glad they're in the practice of giving you two questions. My answer to your first was going to be curt. I've got nothing more to say than the statement itself. To the point of the question I got before, market reactions to what we say unfiltered is more helpful than having delivered a statement, then improvising on it.

沃什主席： 我很高兴他们有让你提两个问题的惯例。我对你第一个问题的回答本来会非常简短：除了声明本身，我无可奉告。正如我刚才回答前一个问题时所说，市场对我们未经过滤的话做出的反应，比我们发表了一份声明、然后又在现场即兴发挥要更有帮助。

Best practices in task forces—I've thought about this. I've been on a task force or two in my life. Best practice—find the best minds. Ensure that the task forces have a range of people both by backgrounds and predispositions so they, too, can have a bit of a family fight.

关于工作组的最佳实践——我思考过这个问题。我一生中也参加过一两个工作组。最佳实践就是：寻找最优秀的头脑。确保工作组内部的人员构成具有多样性的背景和政策倾向，这样他们内部也可以进行一些激烈的内部争论。

Make sure when you establish a task force that the group that's going to be the recipient of the information feels as though they've got some equities in it, too. That's why we're looking for—haven't done the final roll call—some of the most significant talent we have in the building and across the Reserve banks on each of these, and seconding them to this group for a period of some number of months so the leaders of the task force know what the most analytical central bank in the world thinks about that.

还要确保在成立工作组时，未来作为信息接收方的那个群体，也会觉得自身与此利益攸关。这就是为什么我们正在每个课题中寻找——虽然还没完成最终的名单清点——我们在大楼内部以及各地方储备银行中最重量级的人才，并将他们借调到这个小组中几个月，以便工作组的负责人知道世界上最具分析能力的央行是如何看待这些问题的。

They can reflect on it. And a final best practice—we're not outsourcing decisions to anybody. Administrations past and present, reserve banks have chosen a group of 19 people around the table. These will be our decisions. We can agree to some of the recommendations, disagree with others, have a good family fight about it. But what comes from them will—I hope and believe—make the discussion we have internally better, stronger, more of a dialectic so we can deliver on the price stability objective.

他们可以对此进行反思。最后一个最佳实践是——我们绝不会把决策权外包给任何人。无论是过去的政府还是现在的政府，储备银行选出了围坐在桌子旁的这 19 个人。这些将是我们自己的决定。我们可以同意其中的某些建议，也可以不同意其他建议，内部展开辩论。但他们提出的东西——我希望并相信——将使我们内部的讨论变得更好、更强、更具辩证性，从而让我们能够实现物价稳定目标。

提问 12

PRESS: If you look at two-year yields, they're suggesting that markets think more tightening is needed. Would that be your read on what the two-year yield is saying as well?

媒体记者： 如果你看一下两年期国债收益率，它们表明市场认为需要进一步收紧政策。你对两年期收益率所传递的信号也是这样解读的吗？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: We were in such a good place. This is why we don't do third questions. I'm not going to offer any commentary on market reaction over the last 30 or 60 minutes.

沃什主席： 我们刚才的气氛多好啊。这就是为什么我们不赞成提第三个问题的原因（笑）。我不会对过去 30 或 60 分钟内的市场反应做出任何评论。

What we've given markets is a new chapter for the central bank, some fresh thinking. What we've given markets and households and businesses, I think, is a commitment to ask ourselves hard questions such that we can deliver on the promises that we've made before. This is a lot of change for financial markets to digest.

我们给市场带来的是央行的新篇章和一些全新的思考。我认为，我们带给市场、家庭和企业的是一种承诺，即我们会向自己提出尖锐的问题，以便能够兑现我们此前做出的承诺。对金融市场来说，这需要消化大量的变化。

I wouldn't be particularly intrigued by how they react in the first several minutes or even first several days. What I think's most important is that financial markets—and at least as important, households and businesses know that this central bank will deliver on price stability.

我不会特别去关注他们在最初几分钟甚至最初几天的反应。我认为最重要的是，金融市场——以及同样重要的家庭和企业——知道这家中央银行必将实现物价稳定。

提问 13

PRESS (Brian, NBC News): When you say we've dropped forward guidance, for the layperson that might sound like the Fed's going to say less or offer less insight into where their costs might go. For the person you might run into at the grocery store where the price tags are rising faster than wages, how would you explain it to them? I don't know if task force might be an answer. How might you communicate this chapter of the Fed?

NBC 新闻记者（布莱恩）： 你好。当你提到我们取消了前瞻性指引时，对门外汉来说，这听起来像是美联储准备少说话，或者减少对未来成本走向的透露。对于你在杂货店可能遇到的、面对标签上涨速度快于工资涨幅的普通人，你会怎么向他们解释？我不知道"工作组"会不会是个答案。你会如何沟通美联储的这一新篇章？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: If I told somebody in the milk aisle I had a task force, I think that would be doing a poor job. I appreciate it. (Laughter)

沃什主席： 如果我在牛奶货架旁告诉某人我成立了一个工作组，我想那我的工作做得就太糟糕了。谢谢你的提问。（笑声）

If I saw somebody in the grocery store, what I would say to them is that we cannot have a very significant effect on particular prices. The price of oil in the markets or the price of a dozen eggs does not have first-order consequences to what we're doing. But we have an important job there. And it's to make sure that those changes in oil, or beef, or eggs, or milk don't broaden in the economy, don't have second and third-order effects. That's our commitment, our capability, and we're going to deliver on it.

如果我在杂货店遇到某人，我会对他们说，我们无法对某些具体物价产生直接且重大的影响。市场上的石油价格或一打鸡蛋的价格，对我们正在做的事情并不构成一阶影响。但我们有一项重要的工作，那就是确保石油、牛肉、鸡蛋或牛奶的这些价格变动不会在整个经济中泛滥，不会产生二阶和三阶效应。这就是我们的承诺，也是我们的能力，我们一定会兑现它。

提问 14

PRESS: Is the Fed's relationship with the Treasury also under review? There's the normal breakfast meetings with the Treasury secretary. Do you intend to continue that? Have you had conversations with the President since your swearing-in?

媒体记者： 美联储与财政部的关系是否也在审查之中？你们通常会与财政部长举行定期的早餐会。你打算继续这种做法吗？自宣誓就职以来，你与总统交谈过吗？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: On the President, I don't have anything. With respect to the Treasury secretary, he has been posting pictures of the breakfast. The tradition is we meet weekly. I think we've pulled off three of those so far. I believe he's overseas this week. This will be the exception. I think they're very useful discussions.

沃什主席： 关于总统，我没有什么可透露的。至于财政部长，他一直在发布早餐会的照片。我们的传统是每周会面一次。我想截至目前我们已经成功举行了三次。我相信他这周在国外。这周是个例外。我认为这些是非常有益的讨论。

The central bank's objectives, and our roles and responsibilities are delineated from the fiscal authorities. In my view, monetary policy is independent in the conduct of what we do. That doesn't mean we're not interested in what's happening with the fiscal authorities.

中央银行的目标以及我们的角色和职责与财政当局是有清晰界限的。在我看来，货币政策在我们的运作中是独立的。但这并不意味着我们对财政当局发生的事情不感兴趣。

The way I think about it is this central bank needs to have a wide lens, but a narrow remit. We need to be quite interested in what's happening in the world. I won't be breaking any news here to suggest I'm quite interested in what's happening in the Middle East. That has some effect on our day job. It doesn't mean it's our responsibility. But I think we're going to keep a wide lens and my meetings with the secretary to this point have helped widen that aperture. So we're aware of things that could affect our day job, even if it isn't.

我的思考方式是：这家中央银行需要拥有广阔的视野，但职责要保持聚焦。我们需要对世界上发生的事情保持浓厚的兴趣。在这里，如果我说我对中东发生的事情非常关注，这算不上什么新闻。这确实对我们的日常工作产生了一些影响。这并不意味着那是我们的责任。但我认为我们将保持广阔的视野，到目前为止，我与部长的会面有助于扩大这一视野。因此，我们能够觉察到那些可能影响我们日常工作的事情，即使它们本身并不属于我们的法定职责。

提问 15

PRESS (Steve, CNBC): Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for taking my question. You had said—before you became Chairman—that you thought productivity was a reason why the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates. Do you still believe that to be the case?

CNBC 记者（史蒂夫）： 谢谢主席先生回答我的提问。在你成为主席之前，你曾说过你认为生产率是美联储可以降低利率的一个原因。你现在仍然认为情况是这样吗？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, the committee had a discussion of productivity today. AI came up. The way I thought about it before, and socialized with the group, is that artificial intelligence, the latest generation of general purpose technology, is perhaps as important a change in the economy and business and households as we've had in my adult lifetime.

沃什主席： 委员会今天确实对生产率进行了讨论。期间提到了人工智能。我之前的想法以及我向团队传达的观点是：人工智能作为最新一代的通用目的技术，其对经济、商业和家庭带来的变革，可能是我成年以来所见过的最重要的变化。

It is filled with both a huge opportunity and with risks. I take both of those very seriously. You may have heard me say before that AI is shorthand perhaps for American ingenuity. That doesn't mean that it's going to be easy. It doesn't mean it's not going to be disruptive. But over the long term, my conviction—and I heard quite a bit of support for this around the committee today—is the United States is a winner as we go down this.

它既充满了巨大的机遇，也伴随着风险。我对这两者都非常重视。你们以前可能听我说过，AI 或许是"美国独创性"（American Ingenuity）的缩写。这并不意味着过程会一帆风顺，也不意味着它不会带来颠覆。但从长远来看，我的信念是——而且我今天在委员会内部也听到了相当多的支持声音——在这条道路上，美国将是一个赢家。

The United States is ultimately going to be better off in that. To bring that back to the conduct of policy, timing, scale, speed, implications for output and employment—it's one of the things we have a task force to do.

美国最终将因此变得更好。把这个话题拉回到政策执行上，它的时间节点、规模、速度以及对产出和就业的影响——这正是我们成立工作组要去研究的课题之一。

提问 16

PRESS: If you don't mind a follow-up from the other side, when you look at the strong job growth that's out there, the elevated inflation, GDP seems to be going pretty good, the stock market seems to be soaring. Do you look around this economy and see the funds rate being restrictive?

媒体记者： 如果你不介意我从反面追问一下：当你看到目前强劲的就业增长、高企的通胀、表现相当不错的 GDP，以及似乎正在飙升的股市。你环顾当前的经济现状，是否觉得联邦基金利率具有限制性？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, that's your second question. I'm going to give the same answer that I gave before. I'd say as I think about the conduct of policy, what matters is what's the effect of policy. Not what do we say but what happens. The best way I can describe it is uneven. I see some restrictiveness in things like housing. It's hard to use those same words anywhere else.

沃什主席： 这是你的第二个问题了。我要给出和之前一样的回答。我想说，当我思考政策的传导时，真正重要的是政策产生的"效果"。不是我们说了什么，而是发生了什么。我能描述它的最好方式就是"不均衡"。我看到在房地产等方面确实存在一些限制性。但在其他任何地方，都很难用同样的词来形容。

I'll just make one other point. You talked about one of our dual mandates and the employment side. I don't believe that we have a cruel choice. I don't share the view that was expressed a few generations ago that Federal Reserve chairmen show up at a podium and say you've got to choose. And you're going to have to decide whether you're willing to tolerate higher inflation to put more people at work.

我只想再说明一点。你谈到了我们的双重使命之一，即就业层面。我不相信我们面临着一个残酷的抉择。几代人以前曾有一种观点，即美联储主席站在讲台前对大家说你必须做出选择，你必须决定是否愿意容忍更高的通胀以让更多人就业——我不赞同这种看法。

I don't believe in that. What I believe is if we do our job, we can make strong growth, low prices, and strong employment mutually compatible. So what you heard from the committee today is we've got some work to do on the price stability front.

我不相信那一套。我的信念是，如果我们做好自己的工作，我们可以让强劲的增长、低廉的物价和稳固的就业相互兼容。所以你今天从委员会听到的信息是，我们在物价稳定方面还有一些工作要做。

提问 17

PRESS (Nick, Wall Street Journal): Chairman, you've said repeatedly, credibility is earned by delivering. If credibility requires delivering, the move would be to tighten or threaten to. You didn't do that today. Why not?

华尔街日报记者（尼克）： 谢谢。主席，你反复说过，公信力是通过践行承诺来赢得的。如果公信力需要通过结果来证明，那么正确的举措应该是收紧政策或发出收紧的威胁。但你今天没有这么做。为什么？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: That judgment you expressed was not expressed by any of the 19 people around the table. We'll be meeting in six weeks. We'll take up the issue again.

沃什主席：你刚才表达的那个观点，围坐在桌旁的 19 个人中没有任何一个人提出来。我们将在六周后再次会面。届时我们将重新讨论这个问题。

提问 18

PRESS: If I could ask about AI, the buildout is generating enormous demand, CapEx, data centers, power. The productivity payoff may be further out. In your judgment, is AI adding more to demand or to supply today?

媒体记者： 如果我可以问一个关于 AI 的问题：AI 的建设正在产生巨大的需求、资本支出、数据中心和电力消耗。而生产率的回报可能会在更远的未来。在你的判断中，AI 今天是对需求端的贡献更大，还是对供应端的贡献更大？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: That's a good question. At the central bank in the economics profession, what we spend most of our time doing is counting demand. It's easier. We can see it, we can count it, we can check it, we can revise it.

沃什主席： 这是一个好问题。在中央银行和经济学界，我们花大部分时间做的事情是统计需求。这更容易。我们可以看到它、计算它、核对它、修正它。

What we do is we infer supply. You'll notice in the second paragraph of what one of your colleagues described as a short statement, we have a sentence on the demand side and a sentence about the same length on the supply side. They're both important. Just because we can count one better than the other doesn't mean we're going to favor one more than the other.

而我们做的是推导供应。你会注意到，在被你的同事形容为精简的声明的第二段中，我们用了一句话写需求端，用了一句大约同样长度的话写供应端。它们都很重要。不能仅仅因为我们能把其中一个算得更准，就意味着我们要更偏向其中一个。

With respect to AI and the growth of data centers and infrastructure around it, we're counting the demand side. And it is no doubt showing up in GDP figures. We can be less certain when we infer the timing and extent of the growth on the supply side. It may be an intuition the supply side is going to expand but it'll take longer.

对于人工智能以及数据中心和相关基础设施的增长，我们正在统计其需求端。毫无疑问，这已经体现在 GDP 数据中了。但当我们推导供应端的增长时机和程度时，我们的把握就没那么大了。直觉上供应端将会扩大，但这需要更长的时间。

I just describe it this way. There's a race between supply and demand. Milton says the only thing we know about economics is there's a supply line, and a demand line, and they ultimately cross. When they cross and what are the implications for policy? The good news for you is we have a task force for that.

我打算这样来描述它：这是供应和需求之间的一场赛跑。米尔顿（弗里德曼）说过，我们对经济学唯一了解的就是有一条供应线和一条需求线，它们最终会交叉。它们何时交叉，对政策又有什么影响？对你来说好消息是，我们有一个专门的工作组来研究这个问题。

提问 19

PRESS: Thanks, Mr. Chairman. It sounded like on the task force on data that you were looking at overhauling or completely overhauling the system of national accounts, the way that government measures the economy. Is that your ambition?

媒体记者： 谢谢主席先生。听起来在数据工作组方面，你似乎打算彻底改革或彻底重构国民账户体系，也就是政府统计经济的方式。这是你的雄心壮志吗？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: In a word, no. In a few words, much of this data-gathering happens in other government agencies to which we owe a tremendous amount of respect, tremendous amount of deference.

沃什主席： 用一个词回答：不想。多说几句的话：大部分数据的收集工作是在其他政府机构进行的，我们对这些机构表示极大的尊重和由衷的敬意。

But if in the course of this we come up with recommendations which Fed staff have already begun to develop about things that they could be doing to help inform us as policymakers, we're not going to hesitate.

但在这一过程中，如果我们提出了美联储工作人员已经开始着手制定的建议，即他们可以采取哪些措施来更好地为我们这些政策制定者提供信息，我们绝不会犹豫。

I don't want to try to delineate the research, but there will be statistics. And a view of bringing the best practices from the private sector and new tools made possible by AI to forge these into a fabric that gives us better real-time information. So as I mentioned before, when we're making decisions, we're making decisions based on what we'd say are real contemporaneous data, not data that we call contemporaneous that's an echo of history.

我不想去刻意界定研究的范围，但一定会有统计数据的支撑。我们的愿景是引入来自私营部门的最佳实践，以及由人工智能技术带来的全新工具，将它们编织成一个网络，为我们提供更优质的实时信息。正如我之前所说，当我们在做决策时，我们要依据真正具有时代同步性的实时数据，而不是那些我们名义上称之为实时、实则是历史回音的数据。

提问 20

PRESS: Related to the building renovations, are you considering changes to the renovations, the projects, in light of the fact that they became a political football?

媒体记者： 关于大楼翻新工程，鉴于这些项目已经变成了政治足球（两党争斗的焦点），你是否正在考虑对这些翻新项目进行调整？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: I heard something about that. I don't think I'm breaking any news, but my view when you show up at a new institution, you should meet with the inspector general as a matter of good practice. It's a practice I hope to continue. I've had one meeting with the inspector general. And he told me what I believe the world knows, which is he'll be coming out with a report on the building and the building projects later this summer.

沃什主席： 我听过一些传闻。我想这不算什么新闻，但我认为当你来到一个新机构时，作为一种良好的惯例，你应该先与监察长见个面。我希望延续这一惯例。我已经和监察长见了一面。他告诉了我一件我认为大家都知道的事情：他将在今年夏天晚些时候发布一份关于大楼及大楼改建项目的报告。

And I'll be interested in reading the report. From my perspective, with a forward-looking glance, is there anything that we can be doing or should be doing from this moment until the completion of the project to do what we can do to be good stewards of taxpayer money and make sure that we're delivering on the promises that we made.

我对阅读这份报告很感兴趣。从我的角度来看，秉持向前看的目光，从现在这一刻起到项目最终竣工，我们能做些什么或应该做些什么，从而尽最大努力当好纳税人资金的守护者，并确保我们履行了过去做出的承诺。

More work to do. You might not be surprised I've been preoccupied on other matters, but I promise to get to the full breadth of the Fed's tasks in the weeks ahead.

还有很多工作要做。你可能不会感到意外，我最近一直专注于其他事务，但我保证在接下来的几周里，会全面着手处理美联储的各项职责。

提问 21

Victoria (Politico): Hi, Politico. So, I know that you did not submit a forecast, but you are the person who is authorized to speak on behalf of the FOMC. I'm wondering if you could tell us in the SEP, the increase in expectations for inflation. Is that all because of the Iran war? What was the discussion around the expectations for inflation being higher and also potentially growth being slower?

维多利亚（Politico 记者）： 你好。我知道你没有提交预测，但你是获得授权代表 FOMC 发言的人。我想知道你是否能告诉我们，在 SEP 中，对通胀预期的上升是否完全是因为伊朗战争？关于通胀预期走高、同时经济增长可能放缓的讨论是怎样的？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: So, my read of what I heard in the room reflected, I must admit, in the SEP is half of my colleagues thought the policy rate, given those developments, should be at this level or lower between now and year-end and the other half thought higher. That 19th voter was me, and I didn't submit.

沃什主席： 我必须承认，我对在会议室里听到的意见的解读反映在 SEP 中就是：鉴于这些新发展，我有一半的同事认为从现在到年底政策利率应该维持在当前水平或更低，而另一半同事则认为应该更高。而那第 19 位投票人是我，但我没有提交。

There's a range of questions on first and second-round effects. No resolution or conviction. But we'll be meeting again in six weeks. I think we're going to know more then. And I think that my colleagues are very attentive to incoming developments between now and then.

关于一阶和二阶效应存在着各种各样的问题。目前还没有最终的定论或压倒性的普遍共识。但我们将在六周后再次开会。我认为到那时我们会了解更多。而且我相信我的同事们在这期间会非常关注新情况的发展。

提问 22

Victoria (Politico): You said that you're still encouraging your fellow committee members to submit forecasts even if you're not doing it. What do you think is the benefit of them doing it even if you don't?

维多利亚（Politico 记者）： 你说即使你自己不写预测，你仍然鼓励你的委员会同事去提交。你认为即使你不做，他们这样做的益处是什么？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: That's the commitment that the FOMC made. And it's a commitment that I hope we live up to. Like price stability, I expect us to live up to it. By the time we get to the end of this year, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a new communications framework, there were some changes to the SEP. That's a committee discussion, a robust discussion. I think we'll have it.

沃什主席： 这是 FOMC 之前做出的承诺。也是一个我希望我们能履行的承诺。就像物价稳定一样，我期待我们能不辱使命。到今年年底，如果出现了一个新的沟通框架，或者 SEP 发生了一些变化，我不会感到意外。这是委员会的讨论，是一场非常充分的讨论。我认为我们会进行的。

I believe we're going to come to a better mix of communications to deliver on what we promised. But I don't want to prejudge what those are. I would continue to expect colleagues to submit their SEPs. Some of them, I think, believe that the practice as currently structured is okay. I heard a lot of interest in reform, generally about all of these topics.

我相信我们将找到一种更好的沟通组合方式，来兑现我们的承诺。但我不想预先判断那些形式会是什么。我会继续期待同事们提交他们的 SEP。我想，他们中的一些人认为目前的结构和惯例是可以接受的。但我听到了对这些所有话题进行全面改革的浓厚兴趣。

You didn't ask, but I'll answer. It was a pretty gracious couple of days. And it's been a pretty warm few weeks. The institution wants to figure out how we can do better. The institution's going back to first principles. And I'm encouraged that what we've done in the statement, what we're thinking about doing with respect to the SEP, that instinct towards a new chapter is a real one.

你没问这个，但我还是想说。过去这两天大家非常宽容和友善。过去的几周也让人倍感温暖。这个机构本身渴望找出我们如何能做得更好。整个机构正在回归到第一性原理。令我备受鼓舞的是，我们在政策声明中已经做出的改变，以及我们正在考虑的针对 SEP 的调整，这种迈向新篇章的本能反应是非常真实具体的。

By the end of the year, I hope we can put some points on the board both in form and in substance of delivering.

到今年年底，我希望我们在形式上和实质性的履职成果上都能取得一些实实在在的成绩（在记分牌上得分）。

提问 23

PRESS: Could you guide us through some of the principles that guide your own reaction function and tell us about conditions that you think, when the Fed should respond?

媒体记者： 你能引导我们了解一下引导你个人"反应函数"的某些原则，并告诉我们你认为美联储在什么样的情况下应当做出回应吗？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: It's going to be a very unsatisfactory answer to the final question. The Federal Reserve has a lot of responsibilities, not just in monetary policy, but in supervision and regulation, consumer affairs, and payments. My own view is our credibility comes from delivering on what we're saying we're going to do across everything we do.

沃什主席： 作为最后一个问题，这可能是一个让人很不满意的回答。美联储肩负着许多职责，不仅在货币政策方面，还在监督管理、消费者事务和支付系统方面。我个人的观点是，我们的公信力来自于在我们所做的每一项工作中都能践行我们的诺言。

I've devoted more time in my first three weeks to monetary policy than all those things, but the more we deliver on our promises and are good supervisors and regulators, the more benefit we get, the more credibility enhancement we have in monetary policy.

在我就职的前三周里，我花在货币政策上的时间比这些事务的总和还要多。但我们在履行承诺上做得越好，成为越出色的监督者和监管者，我们获得的回报就越多，我们在货币政策上的公信力提升也就越大。

When we deliver on our price stability objectives, which we will, the American people will feel as though the hardships that they've been living through in part because of inflation the last five years are in the rearview mirror, and that credibility will have dividends across what we do. And the institution will come to press conferences like this always with an impetus to reform, always with an impetus to do better. But we're going to put some points on the board.

当我们实现了物价稳定目标时（我们一定会做到的），美国人民就会觉得，过去五年中因通胀而经历的种种艰难困苦都已经成为了过去。而这种公信力将在我们开展的所有业务中产生红利。媒体机构来到这样举行的新闻发布会时，将始终带着一种推动改革、做大做好的动力。我们会取得实实在在的成绩。

提问 24

PRESS: Given the labor data in recent months, how would you sum up the labor market right now? Do you see it as stable, or as a source of inflation?

媒体记者： 鉴于最近几个月的劳动力数据，你如何总结目前的劳动力市场？你认为它是稳定的，还是通胀的源头？

CHAIRMAN WARSH: So the committee, if I were to try to capture how the committee thought about it, the committee thought the labor markets were stable. There were some people around the committee who thought that it was trending better than that. Trends matter more than data points. What's happening over three or six months matters more than any one data point, any one data release.

沃什主席： 如果要我试着概括一下委员会的看法，委员会认为劳动力市场是稳定的。委员会中有一些人认为目前的趋势甚至比稳定还要好。趋势比单一的数据点更重要。三个月或六个月内发生的情况，比任何单一的数据点或任何单次发布的数据都要关键。

And I'd say the jobs data has been moving in a good direction. If I heard one other thing around that subject over the course of the last couple of days, what I heard was that strong productivity-led growth is not something that we fear, but something we embrace. Thank you all very much.

我想说，就业数据一直朝着好的方向发展。如果在过去两天的会议中，我还听到了关于这个课题的其他意见，那就是：由强劲生产率拉动的经济增长绝非我们所恐惧的事情，而是我们欣然拥抱的事情。

非常感谢大家。