学术资讯 | 学刊编委王鹏飞等在NBER发文！

来源：市场资讯

（来源：经济管理学刊）

据NBER官网显示，来自纽约大学的Jess Benhabib、清华大学的董丰和徐臻阳、北京大学的王鹏飞，合作撰写的论文 "Liquidity-Driven Growth Cycles in Small Open Economies"，在National Bureau of Economic Research(NBER) 官网正式发布。

# 论文简介 #

Title：

Liquidity-Driven Growth Cycles in Small Open Economies

Author：

Jess Benhabib, Feng Dong, Pengfei Wang, Zhenyang Xu

Abstract：

While standard sudden-stop models explain well the sharpness of financial crises, it remains challenging to account for the persistent growth stagnation that typically follows credit-driven capital account liberalizations in emerging markets. This paper presents a small open economy model with endogenous growth and borrowing constraints to ex- plain this phenomenon. The model highlights a valuation optimistic growth expectations, fueled by foreign credit with perfectly elastic supply, raise asset prices and relax liquidity constraints, inducing investment that validates the initial optimism. This positive feed- back loop generates multiple balanced growth paths and self-fulfilling cycles. However, in closed economies or with only FDI inflows, funding supply for investment is limited by consumption smoothing, dampening this feedback and leading to a unique growth path. Belief-driven regime switches can replicate crisis dynamics, including sharp drops in asset prices and growth. The framework also exhibits periodic orbits, producing endogenous deterministic fluctuations under perfect foresight. Countercyclical macroprudential measures can disrupt the detrimental feedback loop, while policies prioritizing FDI over credit prevent bad equilibria altogether, guiding the economy toward a stable, high-growth trajectory.

标题：

小型开放经济体中流动性驱动的增长周期

中文摘要：

尽管标准的突然停止模型能够很好地解释金融危机的急剧性，但要解释新兴市场在信贷驱动的资本账户自由化之后通常出现的持续增长停滞，仍然具有挑战性。本文构建了一个包含内生增长和借款约束的小型开放经济模型来解释这一现象。该模型强调了一种估值效应：由供应具有完全弹性的外国信贷所推动的乐观增长预期，会推高资产价格并放松流动性约束，从而引发投资，进而验证了最初的乐观情绪。这种正反馈循环产生了多重平衡增长路径和自我实现的周期。然而，在封闭经济或仅有外商直接投资流入的情况下，投资的资金供给受到消费平滑的限制，从而抑制了这种反馈，并导致唯一的增长路径。由信念驱动的体制转换能够复制危机动态，包括资产价格和增长的急剧下跌。该框架还呈现周期轨道，在完美预见下产生内生的确定性波动。逆周期宏观审慎措施可以打破这种有害的反馈循环，而优先考虑外商直接投资而非信贷的政策则能完全避免不良均衡，引导经济走向稳定、高增长的轨迹。