China trade grows strongly in Q1 as imports outpace exports

by WANG Zhen

China's trade posted a strong start to 2026, with imports rising faster than exports, pointing to stronger domestic demand despite a fragile global backdrop.

Exports rose 14.7% and imports 22.7% in dollar terms in the first quarter, customs data showed.

WANG Jun, a vice minister at the customs authority, said policy support and firms' efforts to stabilize orders and diversify markets had underpinned the growth, saying the strong start should support trade performance this year.

ZHANG Di, chief macro analyst at China Galaxy Securities, told Jiemian News that the robust first-quarter export performance would help anchor full-year resilience.

Total trade exceeded 11 trillion yuan in the quarter, a record for the period and the fastest pace in five years.

Private firms remained the main driver, with trade up 16.2% and accounting for 57.3% of the total. Foreign-invested companies and state-owned enterprises also recorded growth of 16.1% and 8%, respectively.

Trade flows continued to diversify. Shipments to Belt and Road markets rose 14.2%, accounting for just over half of total trade, while flows with ASEAN and Latin America both grew 15.4%. Trade with Africa surged 23.7%, outpacing other regions.

Exports continued to shift up the value chain. Shipments of memory and processing components climbed 39.1%, while exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries and wind power equipment rose 77.5%, 50.4% and 45.2%.

Stronger domestic demand supported imports, with high-tech goods up 25.1%, alongside steady gains in commodities and consumer products.

March export growth slows, demand holds

March data showed a slowdown in export growth, but analysts said underlying demand remained resilient.

Exports rose 2.5% year on year, down from the first two months, while imports surged 27.8%, well above expectations.

Analysts said the softer export growth largely reflected seasonal distortions and a high base a year earlier, rather than weakening demand.

LIU Tao, a senior researcher at Guangkai Industrial Research Institute, said first-quarter exports showed a "front-loaded" pattern, with unusually strong growth early in the year.

A high base also played a role, as exports surged in March 2025 amid tariff concerns linked to former US president Donald Trump.

Against that backdrop, March's export level remained solid despite the slower growth rate.

FENG Lin, executive director at Golden Credit Rating, said that adjusting for base effects, exports still posted a two-year average growth rate of 7.2%, indicating relatively strong momentum.

On the import side, the surge reflected both stronger domestic demand and rising global prices. Imports of integrated circuits jumped 53.7%, supported by higher semiconductor prices amid strong demand linked to artificial intelligence and domestic investment in computing capacity.

Higher global prices for commodities, energy and intermediate goods also lifted import values, as manufacturing activity picked up and geopolitical tensions added cost pressures.

Outlook steady despite external risks

Officials cautioned that uncertainties remain, including geopolitical tensions and slowing global trade growth. The World Trade Organization has forecast global goods trade growth of 1.9% in 2026.

Even so, analysts expect China's trade to remain broadly stable.

LIU said supportive factors include easing China-US trade tensions, looser global policy conditions and deeper regional cooperation, although a higher base later in the year could cap export growth at around 4%–6%.

ZHANG said China's diversified energy supply and stable industrial production would help sustain its competitive edge, while alternative logistics routes such as China-Europe rail freight could offset disruptions to maritime shipping.

On the import side, FENG said policy support for domestic demand and continued strength in high-tech imports — particularly semiconductors — should keep growth elevated in the near term.

The strong first-quarter performance suggests China's trade sector is holding up better than expected despite slowing global demand.